Saturday: This Baseball Handicapping is Hard! YTD: 371-326, + 81.4 units

ofred · Aug 25, 2012

Friday: 2-4, - 3.9 units. I thought I had a great card Friday. The Reds drove Lynn from the game, but then proceeded to whiff away the rest of the night. Who would have thought Latos and Matt Moore would pitch so poorly?

NYY -1. 3 units. The Yankees seem to hit better with a pitcher they are familiar with. Just ask all of the AL East starters that they face on a regular basis. They have seen Masterson plenty, and should be long overdue for a breakout game. Another reason to like this game is that Kuroda has been so good of late. Only 5 walks and 2 HRs in his last 7 starts. The Indians have no punch in their lineup, and have very few extra bases in the past 2 weeks. As I have posted here many teams the Inidans have a dreadful lineup 6-9, and the top 5 guys are not exactly hitting in a lineup spot suitable for their skills. Yanks BP can finish the job if needed.
NYY. RL. One unit

ofred · Aug 25, 2012

Chicago WS -1. 2 units
Chicago. RL. One unit. The White Sox needed a wake up and got it Friday night when Seattle scored 6 in the 9th. But Chicago also found out that they can win these type of games, and against the Seattle closer. They can also sweep the Yankees, which is always tough to do. The Mariners are playing better ball, but don't expect a repeat of Friday. I have noticed that Seattle usually follows up a good hitting game with a clunker. I also noticed on their great homestand that everything went their way. They got very timely hitting in games, even though they stunk it up for many innings in these same games. They also have Felix every 5th game. The Sox have the M's beat up and down the lineup and a better pitcher on the mound. Qunitana is a lefty which tends to be the Mariners weakness. Qunitana has pitched with good command, is very poised, and keeps the ball down well. He will give up his share of hits, but rarely a big inning. Beavan has pitched better since his call up, but overall has mediocre stuff, and gives up the long ball and pitches worse away from home.

ofred · Aug 25, 2012

Angels/ Detroit. One unit. Over 10. This line jumped from 9.5 to 10 shortly after coming out. Smyly has NOT pitched well in the minors since being sent down, and was getting hard when he left. The Angels might also get Pujols back, and then continue their torrid hitting like in Boston. Haren has been just dreadful this year. When he gets pitching poorly, like his last 2 starts, he seems to keep pitching poorly. Soon he'll be on the DL again? The Tigers have been slumping but could break out here. Also, both BP are only about average. Comerica Park is a good hitter's park.

ofred · Aug 25, 2012

STL. ML. One unit. Doing a complete reversal here I know from yesterday. Leake has pitched poorly vs. the better hitting gleams, but well vs. the scrubs, like Houston and the terribly slumping Mets. Garcia looked great coming of the DL. Also, this Reds lineup didn't exactly hit well in Philly, looked terrible from the 5th inning on Friday vs. STL, and very possibly have been playing over their head a bit. Maybe they finally do need Votto. The Cards can make this race interesting with another win or two in Cinn, and have the hitting attack to do it. THey also are probably glad to be in hitter's park finally, unlike their home park.

ofred · Aug 25, 2012

SD. ML. One unit. The D- Backs might be another team that gets a reputation for scoring runs and hitting, but some of its undeserved. They have had plenty of terrible hitting games, and many of these are at home. Stults the SD lefty is not exactly an ace, but he shut them down. Now Clayton Richards, a lefty and pitching well of late, could do it. SD has a pretty good attack 1-6 in their lineup, and belies their their rep for not being able to score runs. But this year has been different for the Pads. They have become a pest on the road and at home in the 2nd half. Ian Kennedy pitches worse at Chase Field the on the road, and is not the ace he was last year. I'm not sure that last year wasn't a fluke somewhat. SD has the better pen too.

Akillies · Aug 25, 2012

perhaps this is the beginning of the Cards run at the division title
also like the padres, playing well under the radar

ofred · Aug 25, 2012

Mets. RL . One unit. Normally I lay off Slumping teams like the Mets, and also going against new pitchers. But Abad seems to be a marginal minor leaguer who usually goes about 3-5 innings. Dickey should be on his A game trying to break the Mets losing streak.

mokoman · Aug 25, 2012

I hope the mets can get some runs today.

mokoman · Aug 25, 2012

Think you will have a good day today O fred! Good luck.

ofred · Aug 25, 2012

KC. ML. One unit. Now that Gonzalez is out of the lineup, KC looks like a go here. The Sox barely held on yesterday in the Lester vs. Chen matchup, and just came off the embarrassment at home to the Angels. Cook has 5 out of his last 6 as poor starts. He pitches to contact so much that this had to happen. Only 11 Ks in his last 62 IPs. Strikeouts are not as important as poor contact hit balls to a pitcher, but Cook always hits the bats- too much so. Guthrie is looking more like he did as an Orioles(which is decent, but not stellar). The Red Sox BP is also completely untrustworthy at this point. From a friend in Boston, there are plenty of empty seats and a lack of excitement at Fenway.