The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 25, 2012 - YTD: 295-274-33

2012 MLB O/U Record: 295-274-33, -$1,547 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Luckily salvaged my betting card last night with that best bet Stults vs Corbin under 9.5 victory, as although I went 2-3 overall, I ended up about even thanks to that final win, which also was big in retaining my normal confidence that has been on display throughout my hot month of August (42-30-6, 58.3%). That’s crucial because momentum is so key in gambling from a mental standpoint (How many times do I stress it? Betting is more MENTAL than anything), which allowed me to see the games pretty well on this final Saturday in August (Wow. Just wow). Let’s see what The Cat has…


Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox - Price TBD
Blake Beavan vs Jose Quintana
UNDER 9

Wow, was this pitching matchup tailor-made for me? I mean, in one corner you have the great Blake Beavan, who I’ve written about so many times that it’s become a weekly thing this year, which I’m not surprised about at all, considering he was my *No. 1 sleeper* coming into 2012 (As I’ve mentioned several times before). Yes, he did have an overall disappointing start to the year, but that mostly wasn’t all his fault, as his struggles only emerged after a start in which he was hit by a line-drive (You try getting hit by a line-drive as a pitcher and see how you feel mentally in the starts proceeding it), but ever since being re-called from a brief minor league stop, Beavan has been masterful, going 5-1 in 7 starts, with a 3.77 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, while amassing a solid 27:3 K:BB ratio. It’s clear that Beavan has his confidence back, and I would go as far as saying that the former Ranger draft pick has been a big factor in helping ignite this incredible run that hisMariners are currently on. It’s no coincidence, as I’ve invested A LOT of time and energy into my feelings for Mr. Beavan over these past several years (Remember, I’m a diehard Rangers fan and I’ve loved this kid a ton ever since we drafted him), and I assure you he is still on the way up, so much so before he settles in as a consistent legitimate upper-rotation starter (And he will bean ace in due time). Ride him with confidence.

Opposing him in the other corner is Jose Quintana, who obviously was not one of my sleepers coming into the year (Nor was he for anybody else in the entire country, since he wasn’t even on the Opening Day roster), but right before his very first start, I detailed this guy’s potential and high ceiling pertaining to his outlook of being a successful Major League starter. In fact, it was in his very first appearance when I texted my friend during a random WhiteSox/Indians afternoon game, which was the first of a doubleheader, how this kid had potential as a starter, based on his long relief outing in that contest. A little bit later on, my wishes were granted and Quintana was plugged into the rotation for an audition of sorts, and he hasn’t looked back since, posting an impressive 5-2 record with an even more impressive 2.76 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. I mean, I predicted he’d be good, but not this terrific, which is why I think his numbers will start to average out a bit, especially considering his low strikeout rate (Only 58 Ks in 104 innings). However, that doesn’t mean his regression has to completely occur in this one start, as he’s facing an offense that isn’t exactly one of the better ones (Although Seattle has certainly overachieved offensively with Ichiro departed), while taking the mound in his favorite setting (2.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 42 innings at home). Therefore, even if he only gives us a decent effort, it should be enough, given the high lineof 9. For the most part, I expect Beavan to lead the way as far as this under is concerned, while continuing his string of excellent pitching on this Saturday night.


Other 8/25 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Brandon Morrow vs Steve Johnson OVER 8.5 - $33 for $30
From the accounts I’ve read, Brandon Morrow hasn’t been the same in his rehab starts as he was when he was dominating opposing lineups at the big-league level every five days. The biggest reason for that has been his significantly declined strikeout numbers,and considering that was the *main* reason for his huge emergence early on,that indicates we will see a weaker and less effective Morrow early on. After all, it took him YEARS before he developed into the top-tier pitcher he was thefirst three months of the season, and based on these accounts, it appears he has regressed to his earlier form when he was struggling a bit to find his way.As for Steve Johnson, he’s one of the rare pitchers I do not really have a beat on, but he’s not supposed to be special or anything, so as long as the Blue Jays, along with the returning Jose Bautista, knock a few runs out of him, we should be in good shape.


Clayton Richard vs Ian Kennedy OVER 9 - $32 for $30
One of these guys is due for an off outing.It’s more likely than not that the Diamondbacks get back on track offensively after being shut out at home for only the second time this season, and it’s more than possible to get to Clayton Richard. On the other side, Ian Kennedy is comingoff one of his best efforts of the year, even if it was against the putrid Astros, but he’s been shaky at times this year, and considering how exceptionally well the Padres have played over the past several weeks, they could strike him for a few runs at least.


Shaun Marcum vs Jeff Karstens UNDER 8 - $28 for $25
Hey look, it’s the return of Shaun Marcum. Considering Marcum, one of the best regular season starting pitchers over the past few years, will be extra fresh upon his first start back, combined the fact that this isn’t really a significant game for his Brewers, this means he should be in fine form, as he has gained areputation for excelling in “garbage” starts. Just as important is the re-emergence of Jeff Karstens, who, after his last start on Sunday, looks to be back on track after his roughest stretch in two years. I’ve mentioned this before how Karstens was actually my best pitcher in 2011, and when you take into account that he’s one of the better home pitchers in baseball, this should add up to a lower-scoring affair, in which we are even protected in the event of a 5-3 outcome.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**

Final $$ amount on Beavan vs Quintana UNDER 9 is $50 for $45

Also added another $11 for $10 on Morrow vs Johnson OVER 8.5

Added another $10 for $10 on Richard vs Kennedy OVER 9

Lookin goodd

Well, can't really complain with a 3-0-1 day...

... or maybe I can, considering my Beaven vs Quintana UNDER 9 was 5-3 in the top of the ninth with two outs, two strikes, and nobody on... when Addison Reed, one of the top closers in baseball this year, randomly served up a solo shot to Kyle Seager that doomed me with a ridiculous push. Normally I wouldn't complain about that, especially since it didn't lead to a loss, but how many times has that happened to me this year? A garbage two-out homer in the ninth to take away a victory? It's unreal. Oh well, I suppose it's not as bad as that game in June when .200-hitting Yan Fucking Gomes nailed a two-run, two-out homer in the ninth off Sean Burnett and his then-at-the-time 0.93 ERA (And it gave me a loss; not even a push from that June game).

Congrats to those who continue to tail me throughout this past month-and-a-half, as this puts me over 60-percent in that timespan. EVERYONE on these forums should be reading my precise and detailed starting pitcher analysis, I don't understand why my views on some days, like today, can be low... do I give too much information? Am I correct TOO much with starting pitchers? Haha clearly that might be it.

CatsOverUnders said:

Well, can't really complain with a 3-0-1 day...

... or maybe I can, considering my Beaven vs Quintana UNDER 9 was 5-3 in the top of the ninth with two outs, two strikes, and nobody on... when Addison Reed, one of the top closers in baseball this year, randomly served up a solo shot to Kyle Seager that doomed me with a ridiculous push. Normally I wouldn't complain about that, especially since it didn't lead to a loss, but how many times has that happened to me this year? A garbage two-out homer in the ninth to take away a victory? It's unreal. Oh well, I suppose it's not as bad as that game in June when .200-hitting Yan Fucking Gomes nailed a two-run, two-out homer in the ninth off Sean Burnett and his then-at-the-time 0.93 ERA (And it gave me a loss; not even a push from that June game).

Congrats to those who continue to tail me throughout this past month-and-a-half, as this puts me over 60-percent in that timespan. EVERYONE on these forums should be reading my precise and detailed starting pitcher analysis, I don't understand why my views on some days, like today, can be low... do I give too much information? Am I correct TOO much with starting pitchers? Haha clearly that might be it.

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Are you being serious? It was 3-1 after the 1st inning (I was on the under as well), and I am pretty pleased with not taking a loss with that bet.

As for your last paragraph, I think that is why you've gotten the reaction you've gotten thus far. You break your arm patting yourself on the back when things are going well and give yourself tons of credit, which is all well and good if/when you show humility and contentment when you don't win. Unfortunately, when you lose, you whine and complain and blame bad luck. You rarely take a loss as a loss without throwing out claims of bad luck.

You obviously care very much about what you do and that is great, but humility would go a long way towards earning respect. Good luck with sunday's action, I'll be checking in to see what you're on.

great night, i tailed your main play...happy with the push (BS homer in the top of the 9th). Anyway i will be tailing you tomorrow, best of luck. I said it before and I'll say it again, one of the best guy's on this board, period.

prb01 said:

Are you being serious? It was 3-1 after the 1st inning (I was on the under as well), and I am pretty pleased with not taking a loss with that bet.

As for your last paragraph, I think that is why you've gotten the reaction you've gotten thus far. You break your arm patting yourself on the back when things are going well and give yourself tons of credit, which is all well and good if/when you show humility and contentment when you don't win. Unfortunately, when you lose, you whine and complain and blame bad luck. You rarely take a loss as a loss without throwing out claims of bad luck.

You obviously care very much about what you do and that is great, but humility would go a long way towards earning respect. Good luck with sunday's action, I'll be checking in to see what you're on.

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Completely understandable and well-said. And you're right, humility is a big thing; it's very easy to fall back off the wagon. I'm just at my highest confidence right now, as I've really refined my method a bit over these past two months, and it's been really, really consistent, so let that be a good sign for everyone who reads my threads regularly. I feel REALLY good right now mentally, and that's the most important thing to me. I'm just VERY confident about this roll continuing over the past month and a half (Note: I'll be doing these daily articles for playoff over/unders as well, but I can't guarantee anything, as I was only 15-11 and +$5 in the postseason last year. Playoff games are completely different from mundane regular season ones that I love to examine and break down).

As for how the Beavan vs Quintana game played out, yes it was 3-1 after the first, but given how many times stuff like that has happened to me in past, with very, very little occurences like that going in my favor, I'll take it. I would have accepted the push a lot easier had that homerun come earlier in the inning or even in the 8th. It just always hurts when a win turns into a push or a loss when it happens with two outs, two strikes, and nobody on, because it's basically a done deal at that point. But that's the creature known as Major League Baseball gambling.

Fell of the humility wagon, LMFAO. One of the best lines Ive ever heard....Nice job today Cat

nojuice9 said:

great night, i tailed your main play...happy with the push (BS homer in the top of the 9th). Anyway i will be tailing you tomorrow, best of luck. I said it before and I'll say it again, one of the best guy's on this board, period.

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Thank you, nojuice. I appreciate that because I truly believe, at least when it comes to MLB Over/Unders, there is not a single person, not just on these forums, but ANYWHERE, that works as hard as I do. No, I'm not retarded, I know there's billions of people. And I know there's a very, very large number of people out there like us who gamble on a daily basis.

But until I find someone who does what I do with my dear baseball over/unders, that being: A 1-2 hour routine every single night breaking down each pitching matchup individually, even if it was after a long night out, BEFORE even looking at the over/under lines; going to sleep, then waking up and doing more analysis at certain points throughout the day, even at work. Then when the games begin, I STILL do more work pertaining to the later games on the slate. Oh, and that's not to mention the 600-1,100-word articles I have done literally every single day this entire season.

I don't mean to pat myself on the back, which I understand is how some of this sounds. Just trying to emphasize how much of myself I have dedicated to MLB Over/Unders on a daily basis (And last year, as well), and that I truly believe there is nobody more passionate to this particular type of bet. Love it.

skyla316 said:

Fell of the humility wagon, LMFAO. One of the best lines Ive ever heard....Nice job today Cat

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Hahah you are 100-percent right. I have to get back on there. If you guys knew me in real life, you'd know I'm actually quite an unclutch person at a lot of things. As I stress every day, everything is all MENTAL, and when I'm put under pressure, I tend to overthink wayyy too much (Which, I guess, is why it's so easy for me to write these longgg articles every day). But yeah, I'm confident and I'm just going to keep the same mindset I've had these past two months. I know this can continue very consistently over the rest of the year

I believe that you should take a moment to appreciate (sp) your effort, I do. I realize that you haven't had a year that didn't meet your expectations, it's gambling. I do believe that if you stick to your guns you'll be profit long run. I hope you have a positive day tomorrow, last time I tailed you it was for $200 a rattle and I went 3-1, hope that happens again, if not thats fine I'm a big boy. All the best!

No reason why you shouldn't be flat betting. I mean look at your record. You are well above .500. With -110 juice on average, you should not be down $1500 when your record is twenty some odd games over .500. Your max bet seems to be around a $100, and as confident as you are with your picks and analysis, there is no reason why you shouldn't flat bet, say $50 a game. At some point, you have to address the money because at the end of the day that's all that matters in gambling.

Stax said:

No reason why you shouldn't be flat betting. I mean look at your record. You are will above .500. With -110 juice on average, you should not be down $1500 when your record is twenty some odd games over .500. Your max bet seems to be around a $100, and as confident as you are with your picks and analysis, there is no reason why you shouldn't flat bet, say $50 a game. At some point, you have to address the money because at the end of the day that's all that matters in gambling.

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stax, I have said the same thing on numerous posts. I guess it's not his 'style' he (knows) he'd be money ahead, as your post proves. One old poster said if you have three wagers and one is a three unit play and the other two are one units, because your less confident why not play the three unit alone? Or if some plays are better than others, why not just play your best plays?

Stax said:

No reason why you shouldn't be flat betting. I mean look at your record. You are well above .500. With -110 juice on average, you should not be down $1500 when your record is twenty some odd games over .500. Your max bet seems to be around a $100, and as confident as you are with your picks and analysis, there is no reason why you shouldn't flat bet, say $50 a game. At some point, you have to address the money because at the end of the day that's all that matters in gambling.

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Oh absolutely. In the beginning of the year, based on my success last year with mostly smaller-sized bets (Since 2011 my first year doing this every single day. Still feels like yesterday to me, actually), I made a huge mistake in raising most of my bets significantly (For example, I only made a handful of $100 bets ALL of last season. Early in this year, I was doing a few $100 bets a week. Another example is my highest bet differentiation: In 2011, my biggest over/under bet was $160 on a Cahill/Romero under in April '11; this year, I made a few $200 bets, with another bunch of bets being between $150 and $200)

I stress that mentality is the biggest thing in betting. Earlier in the year, as regular readers might remember, it was a nightmare. Yeah, I was over .500, but the bad beats were ridiculously consistent to the point where they were happening seemingly every day, but I'm not directly blaming that. My main point is that when I had a huge bet, and I was RIGHT with the starting pitching matchup (A technique I've always strived for because if you're right with the starting pitchers, you will win your over/unders a lot more times than not), it would be incredibly, incredibly deflating and depressing to suddenly lose one of those huge bets when I was right, to the point where it would snowball over the next couple of days. For example, when you bet $170 on a game to be under 8 that is 4-0 in the bottom of the 8th with two outs, only to lose it because of a garbage, meaningless, completely random grand slam off the bat of someone who probably won't even play next year (MIKE NICKEAS. His only home run of the year, by the way, to go along with his .160 batting average. .160 in over 100 at-bats!!!), or losing another under bet despite being 100-percent right on the starters getting it to 4-1 in the ninth, only for one team to end a 122-game losing streak when trailing heading into the 9th (San Diego), and for that to happen after a .210-hitting, 5-foot-9, 150-pound second baseman Alexei Amarista hits his first career homerun (A grand slam, of course), well, I'm a very mentally-oriented person and it would be extremely, extremely hard for me to get that off my mind as I would attempt to review the next day's games.

Now that brings me back to my point concerning mindset: I'm only 26-years old, a year removed out of college, so I don't exactly have the largest bankroll. But in the beginning of the year, I went out of my realm and was making monetary bets that were mostly over my head, even on games I didn't feel as good with, because I thought my success last year would automatically carry me to great heights. Instead, losing a huge bet, even in the instances I was right (And a lot more times than not, I was right on those pitching matchups no matter what the final score said. You can't predict fluke bullpen collapses, bad fielding, etc.) would just stick to my mind so much because it meant all my hard work in the HOURS leading up to said game would just be painful. Absolutely painful.

So, as a result, I went back to my method from last year, doing mostly smaller-sized bets over these past two months, with a large $100-ish bet here and there. Of course, ever since I switched back to this method - my technique from 2011, to be exact - I've been winning 60-percent of my games, as the record even shows. Unfortunately, I might just have to stay at this level because I can't handle the mental collapse of losing a big bet on a game I was right on (It's one thing if I'm flat-out wrong on a game; then I can just move on to the next day. But too many times earlier in the year, I'd make the right bet and "lose." Couldn't handle it mentally anymore)

And that's pretty much it. Money management is my one glaring weakness because mindset is everything to me. If I lose a big bet despite being right, then I'm basically automatically doomed in the day(s) proceeding it. At least with this method, if I take a tough-luck loss, I can realize that it wasn't for a significant amount of money and can move on, which is what I've done, and which is what allows me to bust out the great streaks I've been producing.

Like I've been saying all year, everything is all mental.

nojuice9 said:

stax, I have said the same thing on numerous posts. I guess it's not his 'style' he (knows) he'd be money ahead, as your post proves. One old poster said if you have three wagers and one is a three unit play and the other two are one units, because your less confident why not play the three unit alone? Or if some plays are better than others, why not just play your best plays?

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Haha yes, you've said this more than anyone and I distinctly remember you suggesting it to me. You are not wrong at all with this idea; in fact, it would probably work with just about everyone else, given the space I have of being over .500.

But if you knew me in real life, you'd know I'm very eccentric and not like most people. My mind thinks much differently from everyone else (Hence why Bud Norris is my favorite pitcher in baseball, for example). Actually, I think about things wayyy too much. So, if I were to implement a flat-betting method, there's too much potential for a night where I would feel really good about a game, win that one, but then I'd have two games I didn't feel as good about (Although enough of a vibe to bet on it), and if I were to lose those two, I'd be down for the day, despite winning the game I truly felt really, really good about. Thus, in those instances, I severely fear that I would extremely thrown off when reviewing games for the next day or two (Or more), as I continue to emphasize, I'm a very mentally-oriented person.

As for why I don't just play my best plays, it's very frustrating. As you've seen lately in the "Recommended Games, But Not Betting On" portion of my column that I added several weeks ago and usually include in here on a daily basis, I win MOST of those games that I recommend and don't bet on. That's why it's so hard for me to just go with a short card on any given night, unless there's night where I truly only like one or two games (Ex. That Zimmermann vs Harrell under from last week was by far the only game that stuck out that night)

And to add to all my points, sometimes I wish I had some sort of betting coach/psychologist that could pick apart my mind on a daily basis. It's obvious I have a great talent for this, and I have the determination and passion to do this every single night (Which is what I've done). It's just recognizing in my mind how much to bet, how often to bet, which games to attack more than most, etc. is something I could use assistance for because I have all the knowledge on starting pitchers. I could have a conversation with any of you in person - you name the pitcher, and I'll give you their tendencies, their 2012 journey, a good deal of info on their split stats, etc. The knowledge is all in my mind, it's just being able to translate it mentally can sometimes be a struggle for me. I think if there was no money involved, I'd be unstoppable, but, well, that's unfortunately the main reason we're into gambling. Money, though, can be your biggest enemy.