Best win-total bets for 2012
LSU under 10.5 wins? Ball State over 5.5? Here are the eight best values
By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
Season win totals are a tricky market. Often, lopsided money lines accompany the totals, and we really need to assess the probability that a team will reach a certain number, rather than thinking in binary "will they or won't they" terms.
Overs are particularly fraught with peril, because so much can go wrong to sabotage a season, from injuries to suspensions to snowballing losses and coaches losing their players' confidence. Most teams' downside is therefore darker than their upside is sunny. So it's usually a good idea to avoid asking for more than eight wins, especially from teams with a lot of eggs in their quarterback's basket and especially laying weight on the money line.
Most of our selections are underdogs or modest favorites, and we aren't going over any high numbers. Here's how we see the top eight bets in the win-totals market:
LSU Tigers
Under 10.5 wins (-180)
Last year's Tigers boasted championship intangibles, not just in unity throughout the whole team and locker room, but also in two specific on-field areas that will be difficult to replicate this season. The most critical is the depleted back end of the defense, which turned several games last year with the chaos it created. John Chavis is still an elite coordinator and LSU still has one of the nation's best defensive lines, but last year's back seven had a really special chemistry that intimidated opponents and forced mistake after mistake.
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The other area is under center. Les Miles worked some magic last year by getting unprecedented efficiency from Jarrett Lee early in the season, then keeping the team unified after Jordan Jefferson returned from his legal troubles in Game 5 to score the first touchdown of the game against Kentucky and eventually take over as the sole starter in Game 9 at Alabama.
Miles got leadership, production and results out of a difficult situation last year. It is not a given that simply because it is more talented, this year's quarterback unit will provide much or any of that, let alone be an improvement over last year. LSU loses the game-changing non-offensive scoring punch it got from last season's now-departed playmakers, plus the program currently lacks top-tier offensive coaching. Despite an outstanding running game, this offense will not approach the 35 points per game or the obscene single-digit yards-per-point mark the Tigers posted last season.
Also at issue is the scar on LSU's mojo left by the beating in the title game. Last year's team had rare confidence. The Tigers swaggered into a tough prime-time road date with West Virginia like they owned Mountaineer Field. They out-slugged Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium and overcame rough starts to dominate against both Arkansas and Georgia. And then the Tigers played a game they shouldn't have even had to play and got humiliated like no LSU team before them.
Teams often lose confidence and go into the tank the week following a difficult loss. More rarely, teams tank for much longer. This will be a multiyear healing process, much like what Georgia experienced after taking a similarly unexpected whipping from Alabama in 2008, or what Fresno State endured after letting USC slip away in the 2005 thriller. The dismissal of last season's signature player, Tyrann Mathieu, is just a sign of what has been amiss in Baton Rouge since January.
We look for LSU to finish around 9-4, and for there to be more early-season evidence that this is a team in the process of crafting a disappointing season. One of the most appealing things about this particular prop, however, is that because LSU's total is so high, we could well end up winning even if we're wrong.
Say an unbeaten and dominant LSU team loses a heartbreaker to Alabama on Nov. 3. That team will be heavily favored in the remainder of its games, but each year of the Les Miles-Nick Saban series until last year saw the loser of that clash go on to drop at least one other game as the favorite. Even if LSU does turn out to be an elite team, one tough loss to Alabama could easily turn into a two-for-one the following week versus a solid Mississippi State team or in the road finale at Arkansas, making the under a winner anyway.
Ball State Cardinals
Over 5.5 wins (+175)
Last year former Lehigh and Elon boss Pete Lembo turned in a 6-6 debut, but the Cardinals were not invited to a bowl. This year's team is poised to improve on that mark despite a very challenging non-division schedule.
Ball State has what may be the league's best position groups at offensive line, quarterback, running back and special teams. The defense took its lumps last season but is tougher and deeper across the board this year and is led by a MAC Defensive Player of the Year candidate in senior middle linebacker Travis Freeman. The Cards will still have to outscore some opponents, but this offense can move the chains consistently and the defense will definitely be improved.
Lembo is a rising star in the coaching ranks, and Ball State is the MAC's rising power. Lembo is a proven program builder with the skill set to succeed big at the FBS level. He and his longtime staff will author a renaissance in Muncie much like the one Jerry Kill delivered during his time at Northern Illinois.
Kansas State Wildcats
Over 7.5 (+120)
Some see a team with average talent and little star power that was outgained 10 times last year. We see an elite coach who gets the absolute maximum from every resource at hand and manages to train his teams to consistently execute the things that win games even when the battle to gain and prevent yardage is lost. Expect another season with outstanding special teams, third-down and red zone results and turnover margin and a handful of other performance markers at which Bill Snyder teams always excel. Expect another 10 wins. And expect to have it widely dismissed as luck once again entering the next season.
Snyder is now in Year 4 of his second overhaul of the program, and this year's edition sports All-American candidates at quarterback and middle linebacker along with 30 seniors overall. Kansas State is a seasoned, hungry squad that knows its business. The Wildcats are at least the equal of the four teams immediately ahead of them in the Big 12 betting order -- Texas, TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State -- and are very real threats to take the league title if Oklahoma falters.
Florida Gators
Under 8.5 wins (-170)
Will Muschamp had absolutely nothing left to prove as a coordinator, and hiring top coordinators often works out nicely, as Oklahoma fans will attest. But elite programs are unnecessarily -- and often unwisely -- rolling the dice when they entertain candidates without head-coaching experience. The Muschamp gamble has not paid off for the Gators thus far, as the Saban disciple was painfully overmatched in his maiden tour as an SEC warlord. The offense, entering the first year of the post-Chris Rainey/Jeff Demps era and still unsettled at quarterback and lacking an established identity under new coordinator Brent Pease, isn't likely to improve much from last year's meager output.
It's up to a green coaching staff to put the abundance of talent in a position to succeed while handling the ups and downs of a rugged SEC slate. Neither last year nor this offseason's preparation has given us much optimism that Muschamp and his assistants are equal to the task. Another fast start is possible, and an experienced defense and stellar special teams will probably keep the bottom from dropping out. But Florida's 2012-13 edition of upside is a decent bowl berth, while the downside is downright chilling. This is neither a nine-win squad nor an SEC East contender.
Temple Owls
Under 4.5 wins (-155)
Al Golden crafted the most successful period at Temple in a quarter-century, then Steve Addazio stepped in and coached the greatest roster in school history to a nine-win season. This year, Addazio's team not only steps up to the Big East but faces the most obvious rebuild of the 2012-13 season. Temple loses the school's second all-time leading rusher in Bernard Pierce, four multiyear starters off the offensive line and the team's six best defensive players. Tailback Montel Harris transfers in from Boston College to join quarterback Chris Coyer and sparkplug Matt Brown in a backfield that is easily the strength of the team, but elsewhere around the two-deep the news is not as good.
This is a lightly experienced team with little tested depth. The Big East may not have a top-five team, but it's full of solid ones, and the nonconference schedule doesn't have any gimmes. Temple does not have the players in the trenches on either side of the ball to be competitive at the line of scrimmage in league play, and the offense is not equipped to play from behind. For all their success in the MAC, Golden's Owls never beat a single winning team in league play.
Addazio seems a good fit here, and Temple is far removed from the laughingstock status it earned in the 1990s, but relative to its new Big East mates this program is not as far along overall as it appears to be, and this year's squad is not ready to land anywhere but the Big East basement.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Over 7.5 wins (+120)
The Bulldogs lack star power, but depth is building and the entire roster is seeing the benefits of continuity. This could be fourth-year coach Dan Mullen's best team, and it will be one of those teams whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
This year's schedule is among the most favorable bestowed on any team in the nation. The Bulldogs play an FCS foe and three Sun Belt teams on the non-league schedule, plus draw Kentucky from the East. State catches Alabama and LSU right before and after those teams clash and is thus maybe better positioned than usual to pull an upset. But the Bulldogs won't need to knock off a heavyweight to get to eight wins, as the next four strongest SEC foes -- this team's peers -- are all at home. Mississippi State will be favored in nine games this year and has a legitimate shot to open 7-0.
USC Trojans
Under 10.5 wins (+115)
Eleven wins is asking a lot, and the Trojans have three problems: coaching, depth and Oregon. USC has a championship-caliber starting 22 but is very thin after that, especially in spots on the defense. Head coach Lane Kiffin has flashed some potential, but we need much more proven coaching to label this team the national favorite.
Monte Kiffin's defense has yielded modest results with top-shelf talent in two years in the Pac 12. Oregon overtook USC in 2009, and last year's late-season ambush notwithstanding, is still the new Pac-12 overlord. The Ducks and Notre Dame come to Los Angeles, but the rest of the schedule is filled with perilous road trips. With the under paying weight, we'll bet against Kiffin meeting this year's lofty expectations.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Over 5.5 wins (+165)
We won't call Minnesota a rising Big Ten power, but this is definitely a team on the rise. Kill and his longtime staff are proven program builders and will better last year's 3-9 record against a softer schedule that could produce a 4-0 start. The second year in the new schemes will make Minnesota -- like Mississippi State -- a team that should exceed the sum of its individual talent.
The Gophers do have one sure playmaker, though, and he's under center. MarQueis Gray is one of the Big Ten's most explosive weapons, and his supporting cast should show enough progress for Gray to lead Kill's Gophers back to the postseason. With this nonconference slate and a fat plus price, we'll back their chances.
Ball State Cardinals
Over 5.5 wins (+175)
Last year former Lehigh and Elon boss Pete Lembo turned in a 6-6 debut, but the Cardinals were not invited to a bowl. This year's team is poised to improve on that mark despite a very challenging non-division schedule.
Ball State has what may be the league's best position groups at offensive line, quarterback, running back and special teams. The defense took its lumps in 2011, but is tougher and deeper across the board this year and is led by a MAC Defensive Player of the Year candidate in senior middle linebacker Travis Freeman. The Cards will still have to outscore some opponents, but this offense can move the chains consistently and the defense will definitely be improved.
Lembo is a rising star in the coaching ranks, and Ball State is the MAC's rising power. Lembo is a proven program builder with the skill set to succeed big at the FBS level. He and his longtime staff will author a renaissance in Muncie much like the one Jerry Kill delivered during his time at Northern Illinois.
Kansas State Wildcats
Over 7.5 (+120)
Some see a team with average talent and little star power that was outgained 10 times last year. We see an elite coach who gets the absolute maximum from every resource at hand, and manages to train his teams to consistently execute the things that win games even when the battle to gain and prevent yardage is lost. Expect another season with outstanding special teams, third-down and red-zone results, turnover margin and a handful of other performance markers at which Snyder teams always excel. Expect another 10 wins. And expect to have it widely dismissed as luck once again entering 2013.
Snyder is now in year four of his second overhaul of the program, and this year's edition sports All-America candidates at quarterback and middle linebacker along with 30 seniors overall. Kansas State is a seasoned, hungry squad that knows its business. The Wildcats are at least the equal of the four teams immediately ahead of them in the Big 12 betting order -- Texas, TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State -- and are a very real threat to take the league title if Oklahoma falters.
Florida Gators
Under 8.5 wins (-170)
Will Muschamp had absolutely nothing left to prove as a coordinator, and hiring top coordinators often works out nicely, as Oklahoma fans will attest. But elite programs are unnecessarily -- and often unwisely -- rolling the dice when they entertain candidates without head coaching experience. The Muschamp gamble has not paid off for the Gators thus far, as the Nick Saban disciple was painfully overmatched in his maiden tour as an SEC warlord. The offense, entering the first year of the post-Chris Rainey/Jeff Demps era still unsettled at quarterback and lacking an established identity under new coordinator Brent Pease, isn't likely to improve much from last year's meager output.
It's up to a green coaching staff to put the abundance of talent in a position to succeed while handling the ups and downs of a rugged SEC slate. Neither last year nor this offseason's preparation has given us much optimism that Muschamp and his assistants are equal to the task. Another fast start is possible, and an experienced defense and stellar special teams will probably keep the bottom from dropping out. But the 2012 Florida edition's upside is a decent bowl berth, while the downside is downright chilling. This is neither a nine-win squad nor an SEC East contender.
Temple Owls
Under 4.5 wins (-155)
Al Golden crafted the most successful period at Temple in a quarter century, then Steve Addazio stepped in and coached the greatest roster in school history to a nine-win season. This year, Addazio's team not only steps up to the Big East, but faces the most obvious rebuild of the 2012 season. Temple loses the school's second all-time leading rusher in Bernard Pierce, four multi-year starters off the offensive line and the team's six best defensive players. Tailback Montel Harris transfers in from Boston College to join quarterback Chris Coyer and spark-plug Matt Brown in a backfield that is easily the strength of the team, but elsewhere around the two-deep the news is not as good.
This is a lightly experienced team with little tested depth. The Big East may not have a top-five team, but it's full of solid ones, and the non-conference schedule doesn't have any gimmes. Temple does not have the players in the trenches on either side of the ball to be competitive at the line of scrimmage in league play, and the offense is not equipped to play from behind. For all their success in the MAC, Golden's Owls never beat a single winning team in league play.
Addazio seems a good fit here, and Temple is far removed from the laughingstock status it earned in the 1990s, but relative to its new Big East mates this program is not as far along overall as it appears to be, and this year's squad is not ready to land anywhere but the Big East basement.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Over 7.5 wins (+120)
The Bulldogs lack star power, but depth is building and the entire roster is seeing the benefits of continuity. This could be fourth-year coach Dan Mullen's best team, and it will be one of those teams whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
This year's schedule is among the most favorable bestowed on any team in the nation. The Bulldogs play an FCS foe and three Sun Belt teams in the non-league schedule, plus draw Kentucky from the East. State catches Alabama and LSU right before and after those teams clash, and is thus maybe better-positioned than usual to pull an upset. But the Bulldogs won't need to knock off a heavyweight to get to eight wins, as the next four strongest SEC foes -- this team's peers -- are all at home. Mississippi State will be favored in nine games this year, and has a legitimate shot to open 7-0.
USC Trojans
Under 10.5 wins (+115)
Eleven wins is asking a lot, and the Trojans have three problems: coaching, depth and Oregon. USC has a championship-caliber starting 22 but are very thin after that, especially in spots on the defense. Lane Kiffin has flashed some potential, but we need much more proven coaching to label a team the national favorite.
Monte Kiffin's defense has yielded modest results with top-shelf talent in two years in the Pac 12. Oregon overtook USC in 2009, and last year's late-season ambush notwithstanding, is still the new Pac-12 overlord. The Ducks and Notre Dame come to Los Angeles, but the rest of the schedule is filled with perilous road trips. With the under paying weight, we'll bet against Kiffin meeting this year's lofty expectations.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Over 5.5 wins (+165)
We won't call Minnesota a rising Big Ten power, but this is definitely a team on the come. Jerry Kill and his longtime staff are proven program builders, and will better last year's 3-9 record against a softer schedule that could produce a 4-0 start. The second year in the new schemes will make Minnesota -- like Mississippi State -- a team that should exceed the sum of its individual talent.
The Gophers do have one sure playmaker, though, and he's under center. MarQueis Gray is one of the Big Ten's most explosive weapons, and his supporting cast should show enough progress for Gray to lead Kill's Gophers back to the postseason. With this non-conference slate and a fat plus price, we'll back their chances.
LSU under 10.5 wins? Ball State over 5.5? Here are the eight best values
By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
Season win totals are a tricky market. Often, lopsided money lines accompany the totals, and we really need to assess the probability that a team will reach a certain number, rather than thinking in binary "will they or won't they" terms.
Overs are particularly fraught with peril, because so much can go wrong to sabotage a season, from injuries to suspensions to snowballing losses and coaches losing their players' confidence. Most teams' downside is therefore darker than their upside is sunny. So it's usually a good idea to avoid asking for more than eight wins, especially from teams with a lot of eggs in their quarterback's basket and especially laying weight on the money line.
Most of our selections are underdogs or modest favorites, and we aren't going over any high numbers. Here's how we see the top eight bets in the win-totals market:
LSU Tigers
Under 10.5 wins (-180)
Last year's Tigers boasted championship intangibles, not just in unity throughout the whole team and locker room, but also in two specific on-field areas that will be difficult to replicate this season. The most critical is the depleted back end of the defense, which turned several games last year with the chaos it created. John Chavis is still an elite coordinator and LSU still has one of the nation's best defensive lines, but last year's back seven had a really special chemistry that intimidated opponents and forced mistake after mistake.
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The other area is under center. Les Miles worked some magic last year by getting unprecedented efficiency from Jarrett Lee early in the season, then keeping the team unified after Jordan Jefferson returned from his legal troubles in Game 5 to score the first touchdown of the game against Kentucky and eventually take over as the sole starter in Game 9 at Alabama.
Miles got leadership, production and results out of a difficult situation last year. It is not a given that simply because it is more talented, this year's quarterback unit will provide much or any of that, let alone be an improvement over last year. LSU loses the game-changing non-offensive scoring punch it got from last season's now-departed playmakers, plus the program currently lacks top-tier offensive coaching. Despite an outstanding running game, this offense will not approach the 35 points per game or the obscene single-digit yards-per-point mark the Tigers posted last season.
Also at issue is the scar on LSU's mojo left by the beating in the title game. Last year's team had rare confidence. The Tigers swaggered into a tough prime-time road date with West Virginia like they owned Mountaineer Field. They out-slugged Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium and overcame rough starts to dominate against both Arkansas and Georgia. And then the Tigers played a game they shouldn't have even had to play and got humiliated like no LSU team before them.
Teams often lose confidence and go into the tank the week following a difficult loss. More rarely, teams tank for much longer. This will be a multiyear healing process, much like what Georgia experienced after taking a similarly unexpected whipping from Alabama in 2008, or what Fresno State endured after letting USC slip away in the 2005 thriller. The dismissal of last season's signature player, Tyrann Mathieu, is just a sign of what has been amiss in Baton Rouge since January.
We look for LSU to finish around 9-4, and for there to be more early-season evidence that this is a team in the process of crafting a disappointing season. One of the most appealing things about this particular prop, however, is that because LSU's total is so high, we could well end up winning even if we're wrong.
Say an unbeaten and dominant LSU team loses a heartbreaker to Alabama on Nov. 3. That team will be heavily favored in the remainder of its games, but each year of the Les Miles-Nick Saban series until last year saw the loser of that clash go on to drop at least one other game as the favorite. Even if LSU does turn out to be an elite team, one tough loss to Alabama could easily turn into a two-for-one the following week versus a solid Mississippi State team or in the road finale at Arkansas, making the under a winner anyway.
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Ball State Cardinals
Over 5.5 wins (+175)
Last year former Lehigh and Elon boss Pete Lembo turned in a 6-6 debut, but the Cardinals were not invited to a bowl. This year's team is poised to improve on that mark despite a very challenging non-division schedule.
Ball State has what may be the league's best position groups at offensive line, quarterback, running back and special teams. The defense took its lumps last season but is tougher and deeper across the board this year and is led by a MAC Defensive Player of the Year candidate in senior middle linebacker Travis Freeman. The Cards will still have to outscore some opponents, but this offense can move the chains consistently and the defense will definitely be improved.
Lembo is a rising star in the coaching ranks, and Ball State is the MAC's rising power. Lembo is a proven program builder with the skill set to succeed big at the FBS level. He and his longtime staff will author a renaissance in Muncie much like the one Jerry Kill delivered during his time at Northern Illinois.
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Kansas State Wildcats
Over 7.5 (+120)
Some see a team with average talent and little star power that was outgained 10 times last year. We see an elite coach who gets the absolute maximum from every resource at hand and manages to train his teams to consistently execute the things that win games even when the battle to gain and prevent yardage is lost. Expect another season with outstanding special teams, third-down and red zone results and turnover margin and a handful of other performance markers at which Bill Snyder teams always excel. Expect another 10 wins. And expect to have it widely dismissed as luck once again entering the next season.
Snyder is now in Year 4 of his second overhaul of the program, and this year's edition sports All-American candidates at quarterback and middle linebacker along with 30 seniors overall. Kansas State is a seasoned, hungry squad that knows its business. The Wildcats are at least the equal of the four teams immediately ahead of them in the Big 12 betting order -- Texas, TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State -- and are very real threats to take the league title if Oklahoma falters.
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Florida Gators
Under 8.5 wins (-170)
Will Muschamp had absolutely nothing left to prove as a coordinator, and hiring top coordinators often works out nicely, as Oklahoma fans will attest. But elite programs are unnecessarily -- and often unwisely -- rolling the dice when they entertain candidates without head-coaching experience. The Muschamp gamble has not paid off for the Gators thus far, as the Saban disciple was painfully overmatched in his maiden tour as an SEC warlord. The offense, entering the first year of the post-Chris Rainey/Jeff Demps era and still unsettled at quarterback and lacking an established identity under new coordinator Brent Pease, isn't likely to improve much from last year's meager output.
It's up to a green coaching staff to put the abundance of talent in a position to succeed while handling the ups and downs of a rugged SEC slate. Neither last year nor this offseason's preparation has given us much optimism that Muschamp and his assistants are equal to the task. Another fast start is possible, and an experienced defense and stellar special teams will probably keep the bottom from dropping out. But Florida's 2012-13 edition of upside is a decent bowl berth, while the downside is downright chilling. This is neither a nine-win squad nor an SEC East contender.
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Temple Owls
Under 4.5 wins (-155)
Al Golden crafted the most successful period at Temple in a quarter-century, then Steve Addazio stepped in and coached the greatest roster in school history to a nine-win season. This year, Addazio's team not only steps up to the Big East but faces the most obvious rebuild of the 2012-13 season. Temple loses the school's second all-time leading rusher in Bernard Pierce, four multiyear starters off the offensive line and the team's six best defensive players. Tailback Montel Harris transfers in from Boston College to join quarterback Chris Coyer and sparkplug Matt Brown in a backfield that is easily the strength of the team, but elsewhere around the two-deep the news is not as good.
This is a lightly experienced team with little tested depth. The Big East may not have a top-five team, but it's full of solid ones, and the nonconference schedule doesn't have any gimmes. Temple does not have the players in the trenches on either side of the ball to be competitive at the line of scrimmage in league play, and the offense is not equipped to play from behind. For all their success in the MAC, Golden's Owls never beat a single winning team in league play.
Addazio seems a good fit here, and Temple is far removed from the laughingstock status it earned in the 1990s, but relative to its new Big East mates this program is not as far along overall as it appears to be, and this year's squad is not ready to land anywhere but the Big East basement.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs
Over 7.5 wins (+120)
The Bulldogs lack star power, but depth is building and the entire roster is seeing the benefits of continuity. This could be fourth-year coach Dan Mullen's best team, and it will be one of those teams whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
This year's schedule is among the most favorable bestowed on any team in the nation. The Bulldogs play an FCS foe and three Sun Belt teams on the non-league schedule, plus draw Kentucky from the East. State catches Alabama and LSU right before and after those teams clash and is thus maybe better positioned than usual to pull an upset. But the Bulldogs won't need to knock off a heavyweight to get to eight wins, as the next four strongest SEC foes -- this team's peers -- are all at home. Mississippi State will be favored in nine games this year and has a legitimate shot to open 7-0.
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USC Trojans
Under 10.5 wins (+115)
Eleven wins is asking a lot, and the Trojans have three problems: coaching, depth and Oregon. USC has a championship-caliber starting 22 but is very thin after that, especially in spots on the defense. Head coach Lane Kiffin has flashed some potential, but we need much more proven coaching to label this team the national favorite.
Monte Kiffin's defense has yielded modest results with top-shelf talent in two years in the Pac 12. Oregon overtook USC in 2009, and last year's late-season ambush notwithstanding, is still the new Pac-12 overlord. The Ducks and Notre Dame come to Los Angeles, but the rest of the schedule is filled with perilous road trips. With the under paying weight, we'll bet against Kiffin meeting this year's lofty expectations.
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Minnesota Golden Gophers
Over 5.5 wins (+165)
We won't call Minnesota a rising Big Ten power, but this is definitely a team on the rise. Kill and his longtime staff are proven program builders and will better last year's 3-9 record against a softer schedule that could produce a 4-0 start. The second year in the new schemes will make Minnesota -- like Mississippi State -- a team that should exceed the sum of its individual talent.
The Gophers do have one sure playmaker, though, and he's under center. MarQueis Gray is one of the Big Ten's most explosive weapons, and his supporting cast should show enough progress for Gray to lead Kill's Gophers back to the postseason. With this nonconference slate and a fat plus price, we'll back their chances.
<hr style="width: 50%;">
Ball State Cardinals
Over 5.5 wins (+175)
Last year former Lehigh and Elon boss Pete Lembo turned in a 6-6 debut, but the Cardinals were not invited to a bowl. This year's team is poised to improve on that mark despite a very challenging non-division schedule.
Ball State has what may be the league's best position groups at offensive line, quarterback, running back and special teams. The defense took its lumps in 2011, but is tougher and deeper across the board this year and is led by a MAC Defensive Player of the Year candidate in senior middle linebacker Travis Freeman. The Cards will still have to outscore some opponents, but this offense can move the chains consistently and the defense will definitely be improved.
Lembo is a rising star in the coaching ranks, and Ball State is the MAC's rising power. Lembo is a proven program builder with the skill set to succeed big at the FBS level. He and his longtime staff will author a renaissance in Muncie much like the one Jerry Kill delivered during his time at Northern Illinois.
<hr style="width: 50%;">
Kansas State Wildcats
Over 7.5 (+120)
Some see a team with average talent and little star power that was outgained 10 times last year. We see an elite coach who gets the absolute maximum from every resource at hand, and manages to train his teams to consistently execute the things that win games even when the battle to gain and prevent yardage is lost. Expect another season with outstanding special teams, third-down and red-zone results, turnover margin and a handful of other performance markers at which Snyder teams always excel. Expect another 10 wins. And expect to have it widely dismissed as luck once again entering 2013.
Snyder is now in year four of his second overhaul of the program, and this year's edition sports All-America candidates at quarterback and middle linebacker along with 30 seniors overall. Kansas State is a seasoned, hungry squad that knows its business. The Wildcats are at least the equal of the four teams immediately ahead of them in the Big 12 betting order -- Texas, TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State -- and are a very real threat to take the league title if Oklahoma falters.
<hr style="width: 50%;">
Florida Gators
Under 8.5 wins (-170)
Will Muschamp had absolutely nothing left to prove as a coordinator, and hiring top coordinators often works out nicely, as Oklahoma fans will attest. But elite programs are unnecessarily -- and often unwisely -- rolling the dice when they entertain candidates without head coaching experience. The Muschamp gamble has not paid off for the Gators thus far, as the Nick Saban disciple was painfully overmatched in his maiden tour as an SEC warlord. The offense, entering the first year of the post-Chris Rainey/Jeff Demps era still unsettled at quarterback and lacking an established identity under new coordinator Brent Pease, isn't likely to improve much from last year's meager output.
It's up to a green coaching staff to put the abundance of talent in a position to succeed while handling the ups and downs of a rugged SEC slate. Neither last year nor this offseason's preparation has given us much optimism that Muschamp and his assistants are equal to the task. Another fast start is possible, and an experienced defense and stellar special teams will probably keep the bottom from dropping out. But the 2012 Florida edition's upside is a decent bowl berth, while the downside is downright chilling. This is neither a nine-win squad nor an SEC East contender.
<hr style="width: 50%;">
Temple Owls
Under 4.5 wins (-155)
Al Golden crafted the most successful period at Temple in a quarter century, then Steve Addazio stepped in and coached the greatest roster in school history to a nine-win season. This year, Addazio's team not only steps up to the Big East, but faces the most obvious rebuild of the 2012 season. Temple loses the school's second all-time leading rusher in Bernard Pierce, four multi-year starters off the offensive line and the team's six best defensive players. Tailback Montel Harris transfers in from Boston College to join quarterback Chris Coyer and spark-plug Matt Brown in a backfield that is easily the strength of the team, but elsewhere around the two-deep the news is not as good.
This is a lightly experienced team with little tested depth. The Big East may not have a top-five team, but it's full of solid ones, and the non-conference schedule doesn't have any gimmes. Temple does not have the players in the trenches on either side of the ball to be competitive at the line of scrimmage in league play, and the offense is not equipped to play from behind. For all their success in the MAC, Golden's Owls never beat a single winning team in league play.
Addazio seems a good fit here, and Temple is far removed from the laughingstock status it earned in the 1990s, but relative to its new Big East mates this program is not as far along overall as it appears to be, and this year's squad is not ready to land anywhere but the Big East basement.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs
Over 7.5 wins (+120)
The Bulldogs lack star power, but depth is building and the entire roster is seeing the benefits of continuity. This could be fourth-year coach Dan Mullen's best team, and it will be one of those teams whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
This year's schedule is among the most favorable bestowed on any team in the nation. The Bulldogs play an FCS foe and three Sun Belt teams in the non-league schedule, plus draw Kentucky from the East. State catches Alabama and LSU right before and after those teams clash, and is thus maybe better-positioned than usual to pull an upset. But the Bulldogs won't need to knock off a heavyweight to get to eight wins, as the next four strongest SEC foes -- this team's peers -- are all at home. Mississippi State will be favored in nine games this year, and has a legitimate shot to open 7-0.
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USC Trojans
Under 10.5 wins (+115)
Eleven wins is asking a lot, and the Trojans have three problems: coaching, depth and Oregon. USC has a championship-caliber starting 22 but are very thin after that, especially in spots on the defense. Lane Kiffin has flashed some potential, but we need much more proven coaching to label a team the national favorite.
Monte Kiffin's defense has yielded modest results with top-shelf talent in two years in the Pac 12. Oregon overtook USC in 2009, and last year's late-season ambush notwithstanding, is still the new Pac-12 overlord. The Ducks and Notre Dame come to Los Angeles, but the rest of the schedule is filled with perilous road trips. With the under paying weight, we'll bet against Kiffin meeting this year's lofty expectations.
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Minnesota Golden Gophers
Over 5.5 wins (+165)
We won't call Minnesota a rising Big Ten power, but this is definitely a team on the come. Jerry Kill and his longtime staff are proven program builders, and will better last year's 3-9 record against a softer schedule that could produce a 4-0 start. The second year in the new schemes will make Minnesota -- like Mississippi State -- a team that should exceed the sum of its individual talent.
The Gophers do have one sure playmaker, though, and he's under center. MarQueis Gray is one of the Big Ten's most explosive weapons, and his supporting cast should show enough progress for Gray to lead Kill's Gophers back to the postseason. With this non-conference slate and a fat plus price, we'll back their chances.
