2012 MLB O/U Record: 298-274-34, -$1,442 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
3-0-1 yesterday, although I could argue that I should have been 4-0, considering that Beavan vs Quintana under 9 was 5-3 in the ninth with two outs, two strikes, and nobody on, before Kyle Seager randomly drilled a meaningless solo bomb off Addison Reed to clinch a push. I could argue about that… but I won’t, as both starters really didn’t pitch at the top of their games, so I didn’t really deserve a win there anyway. Even so, last night overall proved to be yet another good performance for me in August, where my record is now a terrific 45-30-7 (60%) this month. Just have to keep it going, as these final days of August unfortunately begin to wind down…
Houston Astros @ New York Mets (Best Bet) - $75 for $65
Lucas Harrell vs Jeremy Hefner
UNDER 8
Come on, are you really surprised that I’m attacking yet another Lucas Harrell under? Not at all? Understandable. Afterall, as I’ve repeated many, many times this year, the rookie right-hander is one of my top five favorite pitchers in all of baseball, and as I detailed early on in the year, he was one of my top five sleeper starting pitchers entering 2012. Unlike most of his starts, however, Harrell is actually coming off a rough outing, one that saw him uncharacteristically surrender six runs in five innings, which actually snapped an incredibly impressive run he had going where he had allowed two runs or less in his previous seven consecutive starts. Despite his shortcomings in St. Louis on Tuesday, I still believe Harrell can get back into his top form, as there were some positives that still came out of that aforementioned effort. “I felt like I battled really hard,” the Astros’ starter said afterwards. “My last two innings, I got back to making good pitches and keeping the ball down. The last two innings, that’s what I’m going to take away from this one.” That’s very good sign of development and maturity for Harrell, as some pitchers tend to stick too much to the negatives of an off start, and that’s especially crucial here because he wasn’t actually that bad - most of the runs scored off him came in the first inning, before he settled down considerably and looked like his normal self. He was also quoted as using the words “disappointed” and “frustrated” after that road assignment, leading me to believe that he’s set to re-focus himself mentally, as he prepares for a favorable matchup in a pitcher’s park against a team that isn’t great offensively, and one that is reeling to boot.
While I seemingly have all the knowledge in the world concerning the great Lucas Harrell, I can’t come close to saying the same thing for his opposing hurler this afternoon, that being fellow rookie (Even though Harrell has been around significantly longer) Jeremy Hefner. I had one really bad experience earlier this year with the Mets’ right-hander - it was actually in his first career start. I even remember it off the top of my head; it was a home start against another one of my boys, Eric Stults, on a Thursday night, in which I had the under, and it was on pace…until a rain delay came into play, directly leading to Hefner getting hit, as he even went on about after the game. After all, it was his first ever start! Put yourself in the mind of a rookie making their starting debut: You get all amped up, you’re cruising to start the game, and then out of nowhere (Rain wasn’t even in the forecast that night! Typical bad beat for me early in the year), a 90-minute rain delay completely interrupts everything, and as soon as play resumed, the Padres walloped him for four or five runs in the inning. I didn’t blame Hefner, as I feel that would happen to most pitchers in their first career start - it’s human nature. I mention all of this because Hefner had to deal with another rain delay in his last start on the road against the Nationals, and the result was an unspectacular five-inning job in which he yielded eight hits (Including two home runs) and five runs. Therefore, while his ERA currently sits at 5.11, not to mention possessing a 1.39 WHIP, I’m not that worried about his numbers because unpredictable variables (In other words, those two rain delays) have skewed those numbers in the wrong direction due to circumstances beyond his control. Luckily for Hefner, there is absolutely no rain anticipated for his game today, and since he’s actually better than his numbers indicate, it’s about time his talent, which he does have, starts to level off those statistics, and what better opportunity to do that than at home against the atrocious Astros? With the line being 8, we’re even protected in the event of a 5-3 outcome, which would still be hard to get to given the two offenses involved. Looking past my Lucas Harrell bias, it’s a solid bet no matter what.
Other 8/26 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Edinson Volquez vs Joe Saunders UNDER 9.5 - Price TBD
I had a small under vibe concerning this fine pitching matchup, and then when I saw the line was 9.5 instead of the anticipated 9, I was sold immediately. Think about it: Just because the game is at Chase Field, a distinct hitter’s park, doesn’t mean two legitimate quality pitchers won’t get in their rhythms in this Sunday afternoon setting. Edinson Volquez finally bounced back from his roughest patch of the year with one of his most brilliant efforts of the year his last time out (6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 10 Ks versus Pittsburgh), while Joe Saunders, despite coming off his worst start this season, is squaring off against a team whom he has had success against (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 Ks, although that was in April). And concerning Saunder’s ugly 13.03 ERA over his past two starts, that’s a very rare stretch for him, especially in 2012. His ERA was around 3.50 prior to this little bump in the road, and given how consistent he has been for most of this year, I believe he will be extra motivated to atone for that and get back on track, while also treating this like a big home game, due to Arizona’s dim, but alive, playoff hopes. They’re also trying to avoid a sweep at home at the hands of San Diego, which would be a severely crushing blow as this season winds down.
Kevin Millwood vs Gavin Floyd UNDER 9.5 - $30 for $25
I’ve went on a record a few times exhibiting my dislike for Gavin Floyd, who I always thought was a bit overrated. In my opinion, he just hasn’t come close to the potential he was labeled with during his days a legitimate top prospect in the Phillies organization. Today, however, I envision an excellent performance from the Chicago right-hander. As for Kevin Millwood, I’m not as confident in what to expect. Normally I like Millwood; I’ve always thought he was underrated in his lattery ears with Baltimore and Texas (And Colorado last year, in his handful of starts, if you remember that), in which his bad records would be more the result of lack of run support rather than his actual contributions on the mound. And that’s the case again this year, as he is stuck with a 4-10 record, but that is not completely indicative of how he’s pitched in 2012 because he’s been better than that for the most part. Overall, I think he’ll be okay today, and that’s all we’ll really need with the line as high as it is. 7-2 or 6-3 will actually be good enough for a win, but it may not even get that drastic.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
3-0-1 yesterday, although I could argue that I should have been 4-0, considering that Beavan vs Quintana under 9 was 5-3 in the ninth with two outs, two strikes, and nobody on, before Kyle Seager randomly drilled a meaningless solo bomb off Addison Reed to clinch a push. I could argue about that… but I won’t, as both starters really didn’t pitch at the top of their games, so I didn’t really deserve a win there anyway. Even so, last night overall proved to be yet another good performance for me in August, where my record is now a terrific 45-30-7 (60%) this month. Just have to keep it going, as these final days of August unfortunately begin to wind down…
Houston Astros @ New York Mets (Best Bet) - $75 for $65
Lucas Harrell vs Jeremy Hefner
UNDER 8
Come on, are you really surprised that I’m attacking yet another Lucas Harrell under? Not at all? Understandable. Afterall, as I’ve repeated many, many times this year, the rookie right-hander is one of my top five favorite pitchers in all of baseball, and as I detailed early on in the year, he was one of my top five sleeper starting pitchers entering 2012. Unlike most of his starts, however, Harrell is actually coming off a rough outing, one that saw him uncharacteristically surrender six runs in five innings, which actually snapped an incredibly impressive run he had going where he had allowed two runs or less in his previous seven consecutive starts. Despite his shortcomings in St. Louis on Tuesday, I still believe Harrell can get back into his top form, as there were some positives that still came out of that aforementioned effort. “I felt like I battled really hard,” the Astros’ starter said afterwards. “My last two innings, I got back to making good pitches and keeping the ball down. The last two innings, that’s what I’m going to take away from this one.” That’s very good sign of development and maturity for Harrell, as some pitchers tend to stick too much to the negatives of an off start, and that’s especially crucial here because he wasn’t actually that bad - most of the runs scored off him came in the first inning, before he settled down considerably and looked like his normal self. He was also quoted as using the words “disappointed” and “frustrated” after that road assignment, leading me to believe that he’s set to re-focus himself mentally, as he prepares for a favorable matchup in a pitcher’s park against a team that isn’t great offensively, and one that is reeling to boot.
While I seemingly have all the knowledge in the world concerning the great Lucas Harrell, I can’t come close to saying the same thing for his opposing hurler this afternoon, that being fellow rookie (Even though Harrell has been around significantly longer) Jeremy Hefner. I had one really bad experience earlier this year with the Mets’ right-hander - it was actually in his first career start. I even remember it off the top of my head; it was a home start against another one of my boys, Eric Stults, on a Thursday night, in which I had the under, and it was on pace…until a rain delay came into play, directly leading to Hefner getting hit, as he even went on about after the game. After all, it was his first ever start! Put yourself in the mind of a rookie making their starting debut: You get all amped up, you’re cruising to start the game, and then out of nowhere (Rain wasn’t even in the forecast that night! Typical bad beat for me early in the year), a 90-minute rain delay completely interrupts everything, and as soon as play resumed, the Padres walloped him for four or five runs in the inning. I didn’t blame Hefner, as I feel that would happen to most pitchers in their first career start - it’s human nature. I mention all of this because Hefner had to deal with another rain delay in his last start on the road against the Nationals, and the result was an unspectacular five-inning job in which he yielded eight hits (Including two home runs) and five runs. Therefore, while his ERA currently sits at 5.11, not to mention possessing a 1.39 WHIP, I’m not that worried about his numbers because unpredictable variables (In other words, those two rain delays) have skewed those numbers in the wrong direction due to circumstances beyond his control. Luckily for Hefner, there is absolutely no rain anticipated for his game today, and since he’s actually better than his numbers indicate, it’s about time his talent, which he does have, starts to level off those statistics, and what better opportunity to do that than at home against the atrocious Astros? With the line being 8, we’re even protected in the event of a 5-3 outcome, which would still be hard to get to given the two offenses involved. Looking past my Lucas Harrell bias, it’s a solid bet no matter what.
Other 8/26 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Edinson Volquez vs Joe Saunders UNDER 9.5 - Price TBD
I had a small under vibe concerning this fine pitching matchup, and then when I saw the line was 9.5 instead of the anticipated 9, I was sold immediately. Think about it: Just because the game is at Chase Field, a distinct hitter’s park, doesn’t mean two legitimate quality pitchers won’t get in their rhythms in this Sunday afternoon setting. Edinson Volquez finally bounced back from his roughest patch of the year with one of his most brilliant efforts of the year his last time out (6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 10 Ks versus Pittsburgh), while Joe Saunders, despite coming off his worst start this season, is squaring off against a team whom he has had success against (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 Ks, although that was in April). And concerning Saunder’s ugly 13.03 ERA over his past two starts, that’s a very rare stretch for him, especially in 2012. His ERA was around 3.50 prior to this little bump in the road, and given how consistent he has been for most of this year, I believe he will be extra motivated to atone for that and get back on track, while also treating this like a big home game, due to Arizona’s dim, but alive, playoff hopes. They’re also trying to avoid a sweep at home at the hands of San Diego, which would be a severely crushing blow as this season winds down.
Kevin Millwood vs Gavin Floyd UNDER 9.5 - $30 for $25
I’ve went on a record a few times exhibiting my dislike for Gavin Floyd, who I always thought was a bit overrated. In my opinion, he just hasn’t come close to the potential he was labeled with during his days a legitimate top prospect in the Phillies organization. Today, however, I envision an excellent performance from the Chicago right-hander. As for Kevin Millwood, I’m not as confident in what to expect. Normally I like Millwood; I’ve always thought he was underrated in his lattery ears with Baltimore and Texas (And Colorado last year, in his handful of starts, if you remember that), in which his bad records would be more the result of lack of run support rather than his actual contributions on the mound. And that’s the case again this year, as he is stuck with a 4-10 record, but that is not completely indicative of how he’s pitched in 2012 because he’s been better than that for the most part. Overall, I think he’ll be okay today, and that’s all we’ll really need with the line as high as it is. 7-2 or 6-3 will actually be good enough for a win, but it may not even get that drastic.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
