2012 MLB O/U Record: 299-274-34, -$1,377 (Was making bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
I’ve been hot all month (46-30-7, 60.5%), but this actually felt like a slate of games where I had a gambler’s version of writer’s block (Ironically, I did not feel writer’s block for this, well, piece of writing). In other words, I just didn’t have those normal creative juices flowing all day nor last night as I was examining and analyzing each pitching matchup for this Monday, and that’s crucial because it is those juices that have propelled me a great deal throughout this entire summer. You can’t be successful consistently if you’re not fully into it, period, which is why in terms of monetary value, I won’t be betting much on this evening. In any case, I did get certain vibes for a few games so let’s see what I was able to muster up…
Paul Maholm vs Casey Kelly UNDER [Waiting to see if line goes to 7.5] - Price TBD
Longtime readers of mine have to remember the high praise I’ve served up on Paul Maholm, one of my top ten favorite pitchers, throughout this entire season, INCLUDING in April when he had that ugly, albeit uncharacteristic, 5+ ERA. Now it pains me to see so many people wrongfully jump on his bandwagon when they haven’t been there since 2009 like I’ve been, and as I’ve detailed over the years (Towards my friends as well, beyond doing so all year here), he’s an underrated unders machine. In fact, I’m either 5-1 or 6-1 with him this year, although since he’s donned the Atlanta Braves uniform, I haven’t been betting his over/unders as much - with good reason. I actually questioned if he could be as effective as he’s usually been throughout his very solid career, having to deal with the variable of making the shift from pitching in mostly meaningless games to very valuable ones that could teeter totter his team's playoff hopes. Well, about a month later, Maholm has answered those questions with a resounding “YES,” having allowed more than three runs only once in his four starts with his new club. He’s retained some of his potential dominance, yielding one run or less in half those assignments, and I think he can keep up his string of excellent pitching against an offense that may be hot right now, but one that usually struggles against southpaws.
Unfortunately, the other side of the equation as it pertains to this under will be much, much more difficult to deal with. By that, I mean we have to get a positive result from the not-so-fun variable of a pitcher making their Major League debut, that being in the form of San Diego right-hander Casey Kelly. Normally I stay away from such contests when it consists of said variable, but from everything I’ve reviewed, this kid is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, not to mention arguably the top prospect in the entire Padres organization. He was the main piece inthe Adrian Gonzalez trade (No, not the one from a few days ago) years’ back,which is always pretty cool when those then-mostly-unknown players finally make their debut. Anyway, Kelly hasn’t scorched his way through the minor leagues, but that’s not a bad thing because I witnessed first-hand the Braves scorching a similar top prospect with said credentials (Trevor Bauer) in his first start a couple of months ago, so hopefully the San Diego rookie pitches himself to a different fate. He looks like someone that can stick for awhile, possessing excellent control and good stuff, so those are two positive traits right there, especially against a dangerous offense like Atlanta, whom you can’t afford to give free passes to. At least in the case with Kelly, according to his minor league track record, if you’re going to beat him, he’ll make you beat him, and that’s something I really like to see in a pitcher. With the line being 7, at least we’re somewhat protected in case one pitcher somewhat falters.
Brett Anderson vs Roberto Hernandez UNDER 8 - $33 for $30
Boy, this sure does feel like 2011, doesn’t it? And I guess that’s one main reason that made this matchup so attractive to me. Based on their last performances, you’d think this was 2011 all over again, as both guys are coming off excellent outings. For one, Brett Anderson is actually coming off just his first start of the year (That Tuesday night affair against Cole De Vries, in which I was all over the under), and he looked as excellent as he ever has, tossing seven shutout innings, while scattering just four hits, walking none, and striking out six. In other words, he was in top form - the same top form that led many people to believe he could be a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher over several years (As he mostly showed in his superb 2010 campaign). Leading up to his return start last week, I was reading some quotes from him in which he exhibited how amped he was pitching for a contender for the first time in his career, and considering the success he had in his season debut, I fully expect his confidence and exuberance to carry over, as he contributes towards Oakland’s postseason push.
As for Roberto Hernandez, he’ll always be Fausto Carmona to me. And in his most recent start, the new Hernandez pitched like the old Carmona, limiting Seattle to three runs and three hits over six innings on the road. This will actually be Hernandez’ first start at home since his grand return, and I think he can continue his gradual climb towards becoming what he once was. In his first start prior to his assignment against the Mariners, he was knocked around, but that was in Anaheim against one of the top offenses in the league, so I gave him a pass on that one. Considering how solid he was more recently, I believe he can continue that climb towards regaining his respectability, and has a fine opportunity to do that against a manageable Oakland lineup. Oh how I love the 2011 nostalgia this game brings to me. Hopefully I’ll love it more with a winning under.
Other 8/27 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Kyle Lohse vs AJ Burnett UNDER 8 - $22for $20 (That’s certainly higher than expected for pitchers of their caliber inthat park)
Recommended Games, But Not Taking (Winning over 60-percent of these):
Francisco Liriano vs Wei-Yin Chen OVER 8.5
Henderson Alvarez vs David Phelps OVER 9.5 (I really like Alvarez and don’t even want to make $$ off his decline this year. He’ll be better again next year)
David Price vs Derek Holland OVER 8.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
I’ve been hot all month (46-30-7, 60.5%), but this actually felt like a slate of games where I had a gambler’s version of writer’s block (Ironically, I did not feel writer’s block for this, well, piece of writing). In other words, I just didn’t have those normal creative juices flowing all day nor last night as I was examining and analyzing each pitching matchup for this Monday, and that’s crucial because it is those juices that have propelled me a great deal throughout this entire summer. You can’t be successful consistently if you’re not fully into it, period, which is why in terms of monetary value, I won’t be betting much on this evening. In any case, I did get certain vibes for a few games so let’s see what I was able to muster up…
Paul Maholm vs Casey Kelly UNDER [Waiting to see if line goes to 7.5] - Price TBD
Longtime readers of mine have to remember the high praise I’ve served up on Paul Maholm, one of my top ten favorite pitchers, throughout this entire season, INCLUDING in April when he had that ugly, albeit uncharacteristic, 5+ ERA. Now it pains me to see so many people wrongfully jump on his bandwagon when they haven’t been there since 2009 like I’ve been, and as I’ve detailed over the years (Towards my friends as well, beyond doing so all year here), he’s an underrated unders machine. In fact, I’m either 5-1 or 6-1 with him this year, although since he’s donned the Atlanta Braves uniform, I haven’t been betting his over/unders as much - with good reason. I actually questioned if he could be as effective as he’s usually been throughout his very solid career, having to deal with the variable of making the shift from pitching in mostly meaningless games to very valuable ones that could teeter totter his team's playoff hopes. Well, about a month later, Maholm has answered those questions with a resounding “YES,” having allowed more than three runs only once in his four starts with his new club. He’s retained some of his potential dominance, yielding one run or less in half those assignments, and I think he can keep up his string of excellent pitching against an offense that may be hot right now, but one that usually struggles against southpaws.
Unfortunately, the other side of the equation as it pertains to this under will be much, much more difficult to deal with. By that, I mean we have to get a positive result from the not-so-fun variable of a pitcher making their Major League debut, that being in the form of San Diego right-hander Casey Kelly. Normally I stay away from such contests when it consists of said variable, but from everything I’ve reviewed, this kid is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, not to mention arguably the top prospect in the entire Padres organization. He was the main piece inthe Adrian Gonzalez trade (No, not the one from a few days ago) years’ back,which is always pretty cool when those then-mostly-unknown players finally make their debut. Anyway, Kelly hasn’t scorched his way through the minor leagues, but that’s not a bad thing because I witnessed first-hand the Braves scorching a similar top prospect with said credentials (Trevor Bauer) in his first start a couple of months ago, so hopefully the San Diego rookie pitches himself to a different fate. He looks like someone that can stick for awhile, possessing excellent control and good stuff, so those are two positive traits right there, especially against a dangerous offense like Atlanta, whom you can’t afford to give free passes to. At least in the case with Kelly, according to his minor league track record, if you’re going to beat him, he’ll make you beat him, and that’s something I really like to see in a pitcher. With the line being 7, at least we’re somewhat protected in case one pitcher somewhat falters.
Brett Anderson vs Roberto Hernandez UNDER 8 - $33 for $30
Boy, this sure does feel like 2011, doesn’t it? And I guess that’s one main reason that made this matchup so attractive to me. Based on their last performances, you’d think this was 2011 all over again, as both guys are coming off excellent outings. For one, Brett Anderson is actually coming off just his first start of the year (That Tuesday night affair against Cole De Vries, in which I was all over the under), and he looked as excellent as he ever has, tossing seven shutout innings, while scattering just four hits, walking none, and striking out six. In other words, he was in top form - the same top form that led many people to believe he could be a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher over several years (As he mostly showed in his superb 2010 campaign). Leading up to his return start last week, I was reading some quotes from him in which he exhibited how amped he was pitching for a contender for the first time in his career, and considering the success he had in his season debut, I fully expect his confidence and exuberance to carry over, as he contributes towards Oakland’s postseason push.
As for Roberto Hernandez, he’ll always be Fausto Carmona to me. And in his most recent start, the new Hernandez pitched like the old Carmona, limiting Seattle to three runs and three hits over six innings on the road. This will actually be Hernandez’ first start at home since his grand return, and I think he can continue his gradual climb towards becoming what he once was. In his first start prior to his assignment against the Mariners, he was knocked around, but that was in Anaheim against one of the top offenses in the league, so I gave him a pass on that one. Considering how solid he was more recently, I believe he can continue that climb towards regaining his respectability, and has a fine opportunity to do that against a manageable Oakland lineup. Oh how I love the 2011 nostalgia this game brings to me. Hopefully I’ll love it more with a winning under.
Other 8/27 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Kyle Lohse vs AJ Burnett UNDER 8 - $22for $20 (That’s certainly higher than expected for pitchers of their caliber inthat park)
Recommended Games, But Not Taking (Winning over 60-percent of these):
Francisco Liriano vs Wei-Yin Chen OVER 8.5
Henderson Alvarez vs David Phelps OVER 9.5 (I really like Alvarez and don’t even want to make $$ off his decline this year. He’ll be better again next year)
David Price vs Derek Holland OVER 8.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**