The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 28, 2012 - YTD: 302-274-34 (49-30-7 in August; 8-GAME WIN STREAK)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 302-274-34, -$1,292 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

The good times are still going, as not only did I record yet another, yaawn, 3-0 night on Monday; not only did I extend my current winning streak to EIGHT (Dating back to my last Friday night game), I also accomplished a nifty milestone, attaining my 300th win of the season, which is always a cool benchmark to reach. Just as important, last night’s performance pushed me to 49-30-7 (62%) for the month of August, which doesn’t really surprise me, considering the final two months of the season last year were two of my most profitable. Another interesting item to point out is that on August 1st, I had an ultra-rare 0-for-3 night, meaning I’m actually a remarkable 49-27-7 since August 2nd. Whatever, enough patting of my own back, as this is a “What have you done for me lately?” endeavor, and it is that sense of urgency I approach each day with, so here we go with, unfortunately, one of the final evenings in this wonderful summer month…


San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $150 for $125
Matt Cain vs Bud Norris
UNDER 7.5

If you’re a regular reader of mine, you can pretty much skip this upcoming longgg paragraph, as I’m about to pimp Bud Norris in the usual fashion that I do seemingly every five days. If you’re a newer reader who’s starting to give me a shot, then you might want to pay close attention, because this analysis you’re about to read is as good as you will find ANYWHERE concerning the incredibly underrated Bud Norris. Yes, he is actually my favorite pitcher in all of baseball, so there is always that possibility that personal bias clouds better judgment, which has happened before, as it has with every gambler and their favorite players, but I assure you this will not be the case here. First off, it should be common knowledge that Mr. Norris is actually quite a very good pitcher. I don’t care that his ERA currently sits at 5.19, I don’t care that his record is 5-11, and I don’t care that his WHIP has ballooned all the way to an unsightly 1.46. If anything, we should be happy with those numbers because there’s no way the Bud Norris that I know, the same Bud Norris I have studied intently since his Major League debut in the summer of 2009, probably more than 99-percent of people out there, including people who work in the Astros organization, will end up with similar statistics. I just can’t envision that at all, even from watching him this year. See, you truly have to watch these games to understand a pitcher and gain a legitimate beat on them, which is what I have on Bud. It’s a lost art, as I see wayyy too many people, not just on here, but anywhere, even outside of gambling, that lean too much on statistics and not enough on actually, you know, watching the games. Furthermore, you have to lean on human psychology - look at their bodylanguage, read their quotes, track their mannerisms. THAT is how you get to know a pitcher, not from just reading boxscores. And the vibe I get from Norris is that, despite his team being on pace for a historically bad season (The worst in franchise history, actually), he has not given up on his personal season - not at all. He acknowledges wanting to end it strong; he’s a very prideful and proud pitcher, which surprisingly isn’t something you can say for a lot of starters out there. The best thing about Norris’ 2012 season that allows me to retain my full confidence in him is how he has maintained his always-impressive high strikeout rate (130 Ks in 131 IP), which has always been a major strength throughout his career. That tells me he still possesses his above-average velocity and ability, which can translate into success again over the final month-and-change of this season. Best of all, we’re catching him in a very good spot. One, he’s coming off a very nice start (Albeit with uncharacteristically only one strikeout), in which he limited St. Louis (Whom he’s always been good against) to three runs over six innings, which doesn’t sound that great, but I watched that game and there were a couple of fluke things involved, such as losing the lead over a wild pitch. He also only walked one, which is a good sign as well. It’s important because he’s one of the more confidence-oriented pitchers out there, and since his last outing was an encouraging one, it no doubt served in helping re-build his confidence. Furthermore, there is no question Bud Norris is a much better pitcher at home. It’s a trend I notice every year and the split stats show it again this year: On the road, he’s 2-10 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Yikes. But at home? 3-1 in eight starts with a 2.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. I mean, it’s not always this drastic, but there’s always a significant discrepancy between his home and away splits, so the trend is a very real one: Bud Norris is simply much better within the confines of Minute Maid Park, and that’s something I expect to continue through tonight’s assignment.

Wow, after all that, you’d think it was about the much more decorated and well-known Matt Cain, who is actually also the more reliable starter as it pertains to this under. I mean, I don’t really need to go on a long spiel concerning the Giants’ excellent right-hander, but here’s a reminder. For the season, Cain is 13-5 with a sweet 2.83 ERA and a sparkling 1.01 WHIP. Like his counterpart tonight, Cain also possesses that excellent strikeout rate (159 Ks in 174 IP), and unlike Norris, he keeps the walks to a minimum (Only 33 free passes). Most importantly concerning tonight’s outlook, he’s facing a team that he owns - and you can almost say literally. After all, Cain did throw a perfect game against this same Astros squad only two months ago, and even after that in a start in July, he held them to one earned run over six-plus innings, while striking out six as well. I don’t see how it’s possible that this current Astros lineup can strike Cain for more than two runs, and even two runs would be generous. I usually look for the positives in a team or a player, but I can’t stick up for Houston any longer after what they’ve done to their organization this year - it is absolutely horrendous when you have Steve Pearce, who had trouble even making those awful Pirate teams from 2009 and 2010, suddenly bat in the heart of your order every single day. Guys like Scott Moore and Justin Maxwell (I always thought J-Max was a bit underrated, though) are cast-offs who get significant time batting in valuable spots in the lineup. That being said, I ask again: Just HOW is this team going to plate more a few runs against the great Matt Cain? I hate to say things are a lock because nothing ever is, but this is as close to one as you’re going to see: The Astros, just as they’ve proven multiple times this year, cannot hit a lick off the San Francisco ace. As a result, all we have to do is depend on a quality start, or even just a fine one, from Norris (Or do we? We can win with a 6-1 outcome), which I’m very confident we will get from him in this Tuesday night Houston setting.


Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees - $46 for $40
Ricky Romero vs Phil Hughes
UNDER 9.5

Well, I wrote so much on my best bet that I’m actually fatigued, so I’ll try and keep this one to a minimum. This under actually has a little similarity to the one detailed above, as Ricky Romero, who has been worse than Bud Norris, is in a very similar scenario, except he’ll be matched up against a familiar foe on the road in one of the hardest ballparks to pitch in. Even so, I have confidence in Romero’s abilities. For years ever since his rookie campaign, Romero has been a dependable entity, even while spending all of his time in the feisty American League East, so I know he just hasn’t simply lost his talent. Yes, his numbers are horrendous, and he is coming off a start in which he walked a career-high eight (How does that even happen?), but from everything I read, he’s determined to turn this thing around and end his season on a positive note. He’s similar to Norris in that regard in that he’s a very mentally-oriented pitcher; he’s almost a perfectionist of sorts, if you’ve ever watched his body language on the mound and how upset he gets, based on situations that potentially dictate his performance throughout the game. Concerning tonight, though, I had a good vibe that he’ll have a much-improved start, despite having to face the mightyYankees, who actually will be without a critical piece this evening in Mark Teixeira, so that’s a step forward there in the right direction already. As for Phil Hughes, he’s simply just been rock-solid. His numbers for the year don’t look extraordinary or anything, but you can say they have for, surprisingly, his home split stats, in which he’s registered a nice 3.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while going 9-3 in 13 starts at Yankee Stadium. I was hoping the line for this game would be 10, which protects us if it’s 6-4/7-3, but I think 9.5 should also be enough to secure this under victory.


Other 8/28 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Johnny Cueto vs Wade Miley OVER 8 - $22 for $20


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 
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For those paying attention to line movement, my best bet Cain vs Norris under immediately sank from 7.5 to 7... Vegas CLEARLY realizing they made a mistake setting the line that high with two upper echelon pitchers and the Dead Bat Astros involved. After all, the ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO for this game is 6-2; if you have the chance to buy it up to 8, I'm very envious because you could seriously make a goldmine off this under - make it your biggest bet of the year if you can somehow nab it at 8, and that's a term I never throw out there.

As for the rest of us who do not have the fortune of being able to buy runs, I severely hope you were able to get it at 7.5, but even if not, 7 is still a tremendous bet also.

Good ol' Bud Norris never lets me down.
 

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ya i was gonna bet the 7.5 but it was already at 7 and unfortunately cant buy points for over unders
 

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GL cat. Looks like Az game may move to 7.5 making the over extra delicious
 
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Romero vs Hughes UNDER looking good.

Also adding another $11 for $10 on my best bet Cain vs Norris UNDER, although that's with the line at 7.
 
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Romero vs Hughes UNDER... too easy (I know Ricky Romero as well as any of his relatives. Couldn't have been more spot-on with his mindset)

Cain vs Norris UNDER... was it even in question (Aside from Houston blowing the save)? It should be common knowledge that I know Bud Norris as if I was his brother. He's a dominant pitcher who went pitch-for-pitch with the great Matt Cain.

THAT'S TEN FUCKING WINS IN A ROW, AND A 51-30-7 MONTH... is there anyone in the country hotter than me right now? I refuse to believe someone is winning well over 60-percent of their games in an 80 GAME SPAN DOING THIS EVERY FUCKING DAY.

Yeah, now's a spot where I deserve to pat my back a little. I've earned it.
 
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Ahh lost that Cueto vs Miley over to end my 10-game win streak, but it was for the minimum amount, and the deficit was by - what else? - a run, adding to my country-leading total in that department. Should've actually at least pushed, as the Reds had a runner on third with NO ONE OUT as the game was 5-2, and despite having that very, very high percentage scenario in my favor, it just wasn't meant to be. Whatever, still another big day in a long line of them.

Tomorrow (Wednesday), it looks like my best bet is actually going to be an OVER (Yes, you read right haha) so look out for my article as soon as it's posted... not going to reveal that game just yet, so no one steals my spotlight before I get my usual detailed in-depth analysis up
 

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nice pickin yesterday.wish i was home from work to play them.I had over mets and over az yesterday.Going with over mets again today.
 

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Hey Cats, tailed u on all 3. Should of hit the Reds over. I had it at 7.5. It was 5-2 top of the 7th and the Reds had a man on 3rd with no outs following a 2 run triple. So u still on a streak to me haha. Hey thanks for the hard work and time u put in with the write ups and responding to people with questions. Much appreciated!!
 
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Thanks guys. No problem as long as my hard work is appreciated and acknowledged :)

Reborn, that's the exact logic I always like to implement in games! The fact that people who had the under in that game *NEEDED* a very, very, very rare instance where a team had the *DECIDING* (For the bet) run on third base with NOBODY OUT, and couldn't plate him in, that is easily considered a bad break, and a lucky break for under bettors of that game because it's so extremely rare when that guy on third doesn't come in. Think of it this way also: If you examine every sport, what is one of the HIGHEST PERCENTAGE SCENARIOS among the four highest sports? The scenario in which there is a runner on third and nobody out. In fact, it's significantly higher than making a free throw, just to put that into perspective.

I'm not complaining, though, because it DOES happen, albeit rarely, and since I've been able to avoid the consistent bad breaks over the past couple of months, I can let that one go without whining. It's one thing if this fluky shit was happening often, but it's the first time I've been bitten by something like that in a little while, so I'll just drop it and move on. It also helps that it was a small bet for the minimum... I hope you didn't do it for the same amount for my other two over/unders, which were significantly larger! Lol at least you profited though.

Today's article to be posted within the next few hours.
 

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