2012 MLB O/U Record: 304-275-34, -$1,139 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Another big day yesterday, going 2-1 to keep my amazing August going strong (51-31-7, 63%! Who in the country is doing better than that in over/unders? No one, obviously), including winning my big $170 bet, my biggest one in months (Like I said, my boy, good ol’ Bud Norris, never lets me down). Unfortunately, though, my even-more-impressive TEN GAME WINNING STREAK came to an end with my final bet last night, Cueto vs Miley over 8, but if you saw that game, I at least should’ve had a push, as the deciding run was on third with nobody out and the score at 5-2, but in the extremely, extremely rare instance when it happens, the run just did not come home. Whatever, it was for the minimum amount so I was not at all bothered by it, leaving me completely focused to continue this remarkable extensive run through this Wednesday…
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet) -$72 for $65
Travis Blackley vs Corey Kluber
OVER 8
Uh, am I missing something here? Why is a pitching matchup between a makeshift starter and a relatively inferior talent listed at only 8… in a hitter’s ballpark to boot? Hmm, well in any case, it’s a rare best bet over for The Cat on this Wednesday evening, and it could be a good one. Let me start with the easier target, that being young Corey Kluber, who despite his impressive outing against the Yankees his last time out, has really not impressed me whatsoever.And I stress that because as regular readers know, I rarely completely put down a pitcher, as I’m someone who more so looks at the silver lining and the positives, even if they’re few and far between, concerning a starting pitcher. When I watch Kluber, I watch someone who doesn’t have very good make-up, at least at this point in time, and someone who, based on his quotes and body language, isn’t the most confident - he just doesn't stick out. Well,after shutting down the Yankees pretty good, he might have a case of “false confidence,” which is a good thing as it pertains to this over because he’ll go into a start, believing the stuff he possesses is enough to carry him through a successful stretch, when, in my opinion, it simply is not. Proof of that lies in the inexplicable trend in which the Yankees offense, as great as it usually is, has had the weird tendency of struggling against bottom-of-the-barrel pitchers over the years (Sean O’Sullivan, Carlos Carrasco, Dylan Axelrod, among many others), and that was no different against Kluber. Even better is the fact that he’s facing a team he already went up against just a couple of weeks ago (5 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 R), and with below average pitchers, once you see them the first time, you’ll have them figured out more times than not. Throw in the fact that the A’s are hot right now at the plate and that lineup should be in good shape to plate at least a few runs against a very recently familiar pitcher.
While it might be tougher to get runs off Travis Blackley, think of it this way: The Cleveland Indians are in the midst of a very, very unusual slump against the A’s. In fact, they haven’t scored a run off them in 27 STRAIGHT INNINGS… obviously, that is something that will not continue, and I think Cleveland gets that monkey off their backs in the early goings of this contest. This has “Law of Averages” written all over it, especially being scheduled to oppose a pitcher who’s a in a weird transition right now. Listen, I give Blackley a lot of credit for what he’s done this year, he was having some very unexpected success in his extensive run as a starter for Oakland. After all, this is someone that was never any kind of significant name in baseball, and like so many others, we thought he faded into oblivion in the mid-2000’s. Quite randomly, he re-appeared and was contributing some fine work to Oakland, even having a string of eight starts at one point where he allowed only three runs or less (Six of those eight were actually less than three). However, that was throughout June and July, and since then, Blackley has kind of been moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, and while he simply says he just wants to help the team win, I read between those lines and sense a little frustrationfrom a journeyman veteran who was experiencing great success, only to have the plug wrongfully pulled out and tinkered with. In other words, it’s hard to keep a steady mindset when your role is changing, and considering how I continue to preach that mentality is EVERYTHING in being a successful starting pitcher, I believe that will lead to a bit of a breakout game offensively for this Indians, who always have the potential to put a crooked number on the scoreboard at Progressive Field. At the end of the day, if you think about it, all we need is a pedestrian 5-3 game to escape with no harm, and with two less-than-pedestrian starters going at it in this Wednesday night setting, we should get more than that - perhaps significantly more?
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - $33 for $30
Zach Stewart vs CJ Wilson
UNDER 9
I’m a little surprised the line is as high as 9, considering this Red Sox team clearly isn’t the same since their monumental blockbuster trade. Breaking it down a bit more, this is now an offense that can be very vulnerable against a quality pitcher on any given night. Enter CJ Wilson, who has fallen off quite, quite significantly since his expected dominant run to open up the season. It’s been so bad for the former Ranger ace that he’s now gone winless in his last 11 STARTS, owning a 0-5 record with a 6.09 ERA since his last win on June 26. That is not the CJ Wilson I’ve grown so accustomed to in recent years as a diehard Ranger fan, and I KNOWhe will get back on track much sooner than later. I consider myself an expert with these types of pitchers, the Ricky Romeros and the Bud Norris’ of the world, in that Wilson is a very hard worker who also happens to be a perfectionist. You can gather that from what he says, what he believes in himself, and how he reacts to certain situations throughout a ballgame. He’s a perfectionist, in other words. As a result, he’s constantly licking his chops for his next opportunity to get back on track, and I envision that happening tonight.
Zach Stewart is another tough wild card in this matchup to plot out, but based on his success in Triple-A with Boston ever since being traded (3.94 ERA, 52:14K:BB ratio in 59 innings spanning 11 starts with the PawSox), I think his evolution as a Major League starter will continue to grow in the right direction. He actually started out better as soon as he was acquired, but fell off a bit because, as I’ve pointed out before, when guys get a long taste ofMajor League glory, and following a few minor league starts in the process, they get bored of it, and thus lose effectiveness. Here, Stewart must be super excited to finally be back in the big leagues (He only made one start this year with the White Sox), and I think he can be successful. In addition, this is a wonderful opportunity for him, being able to seemingly audition for a spot in next year’s rotation, so it’s certainly something he cannot afford to blow, given he’s had chances before. With the line as high as it is, we have room for error, so even if Stewart falters a bit, Wilson can pick up the slack, or in any case, we can take a push from a not-so-expected 6-3/7-2/8-1 outcome. It’s a solid bet at 9.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Another big day yesterday, going 2-1 to keep my amazing August going strong (51-31-7, 63%! Who in the country is doing better than that in over/unders? No one, obviously), including winning my big $170 bet, my biggest one in months (Like I said, my boy, good ol’ Bud Norris, never lets me down). Unfortunately, though, my even-more-impressive TEN GAME WINNING STREAK came to an end with my final bet last night, Cueto vs Miley over 8, but if you saw that game, I at least should’ve had a push, as the deciding run was on third with nobody out and the score at 5-2, but in the extremely, extremely rare instance when it happens, the run just did not come home. Whatever, it was for the minimum amount so I was not at all bothered by it, leaving me completely focused to continue this remarkable extensive run through this Wednesday…
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet) -$72 for $65
Travis Blackley vs Corey Kluber
OVER 8
Uh, am I missing something here? Why is a pitching matchup between a makeshift starter and a relatively inferior talent listed at only 8… in a hitter’s ballpark to boot? Hmm, well in any case, it’s a rare best bet over for The Cat on this Wednesday evening, and it could be a good one. Let me start with the easier target, that being young Corey Kluber, who despite his impressive outing against the Yankees his last time out, has really not impressed me whatsoever.And I stress that because as regular readers know, I rarely completely put down a pitcher, as I’m someone who more so looks at the silver lining and the positives, even if they’re few and far between, concerning a starting pitcher. When I watch Kluber, I watch someone who doesn’t have very good make-up, at least at this point in time, and someone who, based on his quotes and body language, isn’t the most confident - he just doesn't stick out. Well,after shutting down the Yankees pretty good, he might have a case of “false confidence,” which is a good thing as it pertains to this over because he’ll go into a start, believing the stuff he possesses is enough to carry him through a successful stretch, when, in my opinion, it simply is not. Proof of that lies in the inexplicable trend in which the Yankees offense, as great as it usually is, has had the weird tendency of struggling against bottom-of-the-barrel pitchers over the years (Sean O’Sullivan, Carlos Carrasco, Dylan Axelrod, among many others), and that was no different against Kluber. Even better is the fact that he’s facing a team he already went up against just a couple of weeks ago (5 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 R), and with below average pitchers, once you see them the first time, you’ll have them figured out more times than not. Throw in the fact that the A’s are hot right now at the plate and that lineup should be in good shape to plate at least a few runs against a very recently familiar pitcher.
While it might be tougher to get runs off Travis Blackley, think of it this way: The Cleveland Indians are in the midst of a very, very unusual slump against the A’s. In fact, they haven’t scored a run off them in 27 STRAIGHT INNINGS… obviously, that is something that will not continue, and I think Cleveland gets that monkey off their backs in the early goings of this contest. This has “Law of Averages” written all over it, especially being scheduled to oppose a pitcher who’s a in a weird transition right now. Listen, I give Blackley a lot of credit for what he’s done this year, he was having some very unexpected success in his extensive run as a starter for Oakland. After all, this is someone that was never any kind of significant name in baseball, and like so many others, we thought he faded into oblivion in the mid-2000’s. Quite randomly, he re-appeared and was contributing some fine work to Oakland, even having a string of eight starts at one point where he allowed only three runs or less (Six of those eight were actually less than three). However, that was throughout June and July, and since then, Blackley has kind of been moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, and while he simply says he just wants to help the team win, I read between those lines and sense a little frustrationfrom a journeyman veteran who was experiencing great success, only to have the plug wrongfully pulled out and tinkered with. In other words, it’s hard to keep a steady mindset when your role is changing, and considering how I continue to preach that mentality is EVERYTHING in being a successful starting pitcher, I believe that will lead to a bit of a breakout game offensively for this Indians, who always have the potential to put a crooked number on the scoreboard at Progressive Field. At the end of the day, if you think about it, all we need is a pedestrian 5-3 game to escape with no harm, and with two less-than-pedestrian starters going at it in this Wednesday night setting, we should get more than that - perhaps significantly more?
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - $33 for $30
Zach Stewart vs CJ Wilson
UNDER 9
I’m a little surprised the line is as high as 9, considering this Red Sox team clearly isn’t the same since their monumental blockbuster trade. Breaking it down a bit more, this is now an offense that can be very vulnerable against a quality pitcher on any given night. Enter CJ Wilson, who has fallen off quite, quite significantly since his expected dominant run to open up the season. It’s been so bad for the former Ranger ace that he’s now gone winless in his last 11 STARTS, owning a 0-5 record with a 6.09 ERA since his last win on June 26. That is not the CJ Wilson I’ve grown so accustomed to in recent years as a diehard Ranger fan, and I KNOWhe will get back on track much sooner than later. I consider myself an expert with these types of pitchers, the Ricky Romeros and the Bud Norris’ of the world, in that Wilson is a very hard worker who also happens to be a perfectionist. You can gather that from what he says, what he believes in himself, and how he reacts to certain situations throughout a ballgame. He’s a perfectionist, in other words. As a result, he’s constantly licking his chops for his next opportunity to get back on track, and I envision that happening tonight.
Zach Stewart is another tough wild card in this matchup to plot out, but based on his success in Triple-A with Boston ever since being traded (3.94 ERA, 52:14K:BB ratio in 59 innings spanning 11 starts with the PawSox), I think his evolution as a Major League starter will continue to grow in the right direction. He actually started out better as soon as he was acquired, but fell off a bit because, as I’ve pointed out before, when guys get a long taste ofMajor League glory, and following a few minor league starts in the process, they get bored of it, and thus lose effectiveness. Here, Stewart must be super excited to finally be back in the big leagues (He only made one start this year with the White Sox), and I think he can be successful. In addition, this is a wonderful opportunity for him, being able to seemingly audition for a spot in next year’s rotation, so it’s certainly something he cannot afford to blow, given he’s had chances before. With the line as high as it is, we have room for error, so even if Stewart falters a bit, Wilson can pick up the slack, or in any case, we can take a push from a not-so-expected 6-3/7-2/8-1 outcome. It’s a solid bet at 9.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
