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Nationals Open Long Weekend Set With Cardinals

For the first time in a good while, the ground looks to be shaking under the Washington Nationals. Slumping after what to this point has been a wildly-successful summer, Davey Johnson’s team is best-advised to stop the bleeding ASAP.

And no one has to tell Thursday night’s opponent, the St. Louis Cardinals, how things can change in the playoff races come September.

The Cards and Nats open a crucial four-game weekend set in D.C. on Thursday night, with postseason implications galore in the outcome. Scheduled starters for the first game of the set are Jaime Garcia for St. Louis and Edwin Jackson for Washington; the Don Best MLB odds screen notes early pricing on the game rates it a veritable toss-up, with the Nats priced at -110 and the Cards at even money at Las Vegas sports books, while the total is at eight shaded to the ‘over’ at -125.

Meanwhile, early Run Line pricing notes the Cards -210 with the extra run, while the Nats can fetch a +175 laying a run. First pitch at Nationals Park will be 7:05 p.m. (ET); if planning to attend we suggest arriving early to beat the long lines at the several Ben’s Chili Bowls around the ballpark, where the famous chili half-smokes are served.

Then, save room for a shake (we recommend the chocolate) in the later innings at the Shake Shack located in the open-air right field concourse.

For those watching from elsewhere and not able to indulge in the many dining options at Nationals Park, the issues this weekend suddenly involve the once high-flying Nats, whose staff has started to wobble in recent weeks. Indeed, the fact Washington could count upon solid starting pitching has mostly enabled it to avoid the sorts of losing skids that threaten to undermine potential contenders. The Nationals were on a five-game losing streak (tied for their longest slump of the season) after Tuesday’s 9-0 loss at Miami.

Moreover, nerves might be starting to fray, if reports of a recent shouting match between Johnson and GM Mike Rizzo are to be believed.

But recent developments, including Stephen Strasburg getting hammered on Tuesday at Miami, are a bit troubling for manager Johnson. Thursday night’s starter Jackson has also been struggling in recent outings, reflected in his less-than-stellar 4.55 ERA in his last five appearances. Washington has also lost its last two and five of Jackson’s last eight starts, not providing much run support in the process the last two, generating a mere pair of runs total in losses last Friday vs. the Phils and August 18 vs. the Mets.

Jackson’s 4.55 ERA also covers all of his August starts and rates as his least-effective month of the season to date. Of course, remember that Jackson was a member of St. Louis for the last half of the 2011 season when arriving in a trade deadline deal from the White Sox, and was a contributor to the Cards’ late-season charge to a World Series crown before leaving for D.C. in the offseason via free agency.

Jackson has not pitched against the Redbirds since the 2010 season when working for the Diamondbacks.

Manager Johnson has other worries at the moment, including his suddenly-impotent batting order that had scored only six runs in the five-game losing streak through Tuesday. The returns of SS Ian Desmond and OF Mike Morse to the lineup could not prevent that humbling 9-0 loss to the Marlins and their erratic starter Ricky Nolasco on Tuesday.

Entering Wednesday’s game at Miami, the Nats had also seen their NL East lead over the Braves trimmed to just four games. Washington is also now locked in a virtual dead-heat with Cincinnati for the best record in the NL and the home-field edge throughout the playoffs which would accompany that honor. They swept the Cards in a 3-game set in DC a year ago.

Working in the Nationals’ favor on Thursday night is the fact that St. Louis starter Garcia has been struggling himself lately, with the Cards losing his last four starts. Garcia has been hit hard in that stretch, posting a 6.55 ERA in those defeats.

Garcia hasn’t faced the Nationals since last season; in his career he’s started three times vs. Washington, fashioning a 2-0 record and 1.65 ERA, although those were against lesser Nats editions.

The Cardinals also enter this set concerned about the status of their catcher Yadier Molina, who had to exit Tuesday night’s loss in Pittsburgh after a brutal home-plate collision with the Pirates’ Josh Harrison. Suffering from back, neck and shoulder soreness, Molina might be expected to miss at least a few games, which could be an issue for St. Louis considering his defensive work and surprisingly-good hitting (.325 BA) this season.

Mike Matheny’s club, however, has moved into the NL’s second wild-card position after mostly-positive efforts since the All-Star break. The Redbirds know all about stretch-drive pressure, too, having rallied from a 10½-game deficit on August 24 in last season’s wild card race before collaring the Braves and surpassing them on the final night of the regular season.

And we all remember what happened thereafter.
 

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Thursday, August 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 12:05 PM ET Oakland -102 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 12:35 PM ET Baltimore -106 500
Baltimore - Under 9 500

NY Mets - 1:05 PM ET NY Mets +102 500
Philadelphia - Over 8 500

Seattle - 1:10 PM ET Seattle +118 500
Minnesota - Over 9 500
 

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MLB
Dunkel


Detroit at Kansas City
The Royals look to build on their 7-0 record in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Kansas City is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 30

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 14.822; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.802
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 14.906; Cubs (Raley) 15.253
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); N/A

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.540; Washington (Jackson) 14.068
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Over

Game 957-958: San Francisco at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.568; Houston (Lyles) 13.118
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-180); Under

Game 959-960: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.146; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.018
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-215); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+185); Over

Game 961-962: Oakland at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 14.572; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under

Game 963-964: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.387; Baltimore (Britton) 16.739
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Under

Game 965-966: Seattle at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 15.194; Minnesota (Duensing) 14.799
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Over

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.934; Toronto (Villanueva) 14.512
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Under

Game 969-970: Detroit at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.184; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.211
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over

Game 971-972: Boston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.679; LA Angels (Greinke) 15.606
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Under
 

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Long Sheet

Thursday, August 30


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NY METS (61 - 69) at PHILADELPHIA (61 - 69) - 1:05 PM
JON NIESE (L) vs. KYLE KENDRICK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 8-13 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
NY METS are 12-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
NY METS are 70-70 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 102-103 (+5.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 33-26 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 74-72 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-31 (-18.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-25 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 61-66 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-23 (-11.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-39 (-18.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 159-131 (-42.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 61-69 (-22.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 31-37 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 10-4 (+9.6 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
12 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+9.8 Units)

JON NIESE vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
NIESE is 5-4 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.282.
His team's record is 6-6 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-4. (+3.7 units)

KYLE KENDRICK vs. NY METS since 1997
KENDRICK is 4-5 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.467.
His team's record is 4-7 (-4.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-4. (+2.6 units)

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MILWAUKEE (62 - 67) at CHICAGO CUBS (49 - 80) - 2:20 PM
SHAUN MARCUM (R) vs. BROOKS RALEY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 62-67 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-39 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 8-18 (-13.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 21-27 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 62-67 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 33-34 (-8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MARCUM is 21-29 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MARCUM is 21-29 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 55-23 (+26.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 49-80 (-21.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 666-624 (-143.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 6-21 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in August games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 21-40 (-14.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 672-688 (-132.3 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 49-80 (-21.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 87-127 (-27.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 23-41 (-16.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 13-3 (+9.2 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
10 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.7 Units)

SHAUN MARCUM vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
MARCUM is 4-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.33 and a WHIP of 0.852.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

BROOKS RALEY vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
No recent starts.

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ST LOUIS (71 - 59) at WASHINGTON (78 - 51) - 7:05 PM
JAIME GARCIA (L) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 44-46 (-14.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 18-28 (-18.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-29 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
WASHINGTON is 35-24 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 27-19 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 78-51 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 26-13 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
WASHINGTON is 75-51 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 53-33 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
WASHINGTON is 27-12 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 123-88 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 41-29 (+12.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSON is 8-15 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
JACKSON is 13-21 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JAIME GARCIA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
GARCIA is 2-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 1.65 and a WHIP of 1.653.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
JACKSON is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.462.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (73 - 57) at HOUSTON (40 - 90) - 8:05 PM
RYAN VOGELSONG (R) vs. JORDAN LYLES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 35-14 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 73-57 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 36-29 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-3 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games in August games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 73-57 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 46-30 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 476-470 (+45.4 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
VOGELSONG is 16-8 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 16-8 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
VOGELSONG is 11-2 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 40-89 (-37.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 29-61 (-23.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 27-68 (-34.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 25-63 (-30.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 19-45 (-19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 2-22 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 40-89 (-37.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 41-84 (-36.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
LYLES is 6-27 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LYLES is 2-15 (-12.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LYLES is 6-27 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LYLES is 4-19 (-13.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 (+5.9 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

RYAN VOGELSONG vs. HOUSTON since 1997
VOGELSONG is 2-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.177.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-4. (-4.3 units)

JORDAN LYLES vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LYLES is 1-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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ARIZONA (64 - 67) at LA DODGERS (70 - 61) - 10:10 PM
IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 64-67 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 64-67 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 42-50 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 31-36 (-10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ARIZONA is 21-32 (-12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA DODGERS are 39-25 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
LA DODGERS are 60-37 (+17.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 41-28 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
KERSHAW is 41-19 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 38-13 (+19.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 24-7 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 29-12 (+14.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 41-19 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 74-74 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 67-50 (+11.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KENNEDY is 19-4 (+15.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 33-36 (-10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 8-4 (+2.9 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.5 Units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
KENNEDY is 3-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.46 and a WHIP of 1.239.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.6 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ARIZONA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-3 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 1.056.
His team's record is 8-4 (+3.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-6. (-1.1 units)
 

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OAKLAND (72 - 57) at CLEVELAND (55 - 75) - 12:05 PM
JARROD PARKER (R) vs. JUSTIN MASTERSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 59-40 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 72-57 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 33-30 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 261-191 (+66.8 Units) against the money line in August games since 1997.
OAKLAND is 88-73 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 66-54 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 49-33 (+22.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 42-29 (+16.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CLEVELAND is 55-75 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-22 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in August games this season.
CLEVELAND is 16-30 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CLEVELAND is 52-71 (-18.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 20-43 (-19.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 7-2 (+4.7 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.8 Units)

JARROD PARKER vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
PARKER is 1-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.875.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

JUSTIN MASTERSON vs. OAKLAND since 1997
MASTERSON is 1-4 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 9.12 and a WHIP of 2.067.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (72 - 57) at BALTIMORE (71 - 58) - 12:35 PM
JOSE QUINTANA (L) vs. ZACH BRITTON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 24-12 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
BALTIMORE is 66-51 (+23.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 20-14 (+10.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 43-34 (+20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 69-79 (+27.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 71-58 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 32-24 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
BALTIMORE is 16-9 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in August games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 42-29 (+10.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 33-26 (+9.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 72-57 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 25-8 (+16.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 78-70 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 19-11 (+10.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 44-33 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 66-56 (+5.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 292-366 (-97.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 5-2 (+3.5 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

JOSE QUINTANA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.

ZACH BRITTON vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
BRITTON is 1-0 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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SEATTLE (63 - 68) at MINNESOTA (53 - 77) - 1:10 PM
BLAKE BEAVAN (R) vs. BRIAN DUENSING (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 15-35 (-18.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-30 (-19.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 46-88 (-34.9 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 102-160 (-46.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 40-16 (+18.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 63-68 (+7.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 60-61 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SEATTLE is 16-4 (+12.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
MINNESOTA is 116-177 (-35.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-39 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MINNESOTA is 16-39 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-18 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-39 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
MINNESOTA is 16-28 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 7-2 (+4.9 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

BLAKE BEAVAN vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
BEAVAN is 1-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.135.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

BRIAN DUENSING vs. SEATTLE since 1997
DUENSING is 0-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (71 - 59) at TORONTO (58 - 71) - 7:05 PM
MATT MOORE (L) vs. CARLOS VILLANUEVA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 36-29 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 36-26 (+12.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 17-8 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games in August games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 462-551 (+27.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 43-33 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 70-42 (+18.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 79-53 (+20.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 58-71 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 32-48 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TORONTO is 36-53 (-13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 9-2 (+7.1 Units) against TORONTO this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

MATT MOORE vs. TORONTO since 1997
MOORE is 1-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 2.53 and a WHIP of 1.031.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

CARLOS VILLANUEVA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
VILLANUEVA is 0-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 11.42 and a WHIP of 2.076.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (69 - 60) at KANSAS CITY (58 - 71) - 8:10 PM
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. JEREMY GUTHRIE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 69-60 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 6-14 (-12.7 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 this season.
DETROIT is 30-34 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 65-57 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 36-40 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 44-43 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 34-34 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KANSAS CITY is 16-11 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in August games this season.
GUTHRIE is 16-11 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 77-41 (+22.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PORCELLO is 9-1 (+7.8 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 18-10 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 17-6 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 17-9 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PORCELLO is 19-5 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 243-354 (-98.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 7-3 (+1.1 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.6 Units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
PORCELLO is 5-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.56 and a WHIP of 1.254.
His team's record is 8-4 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-2. (+7.1 units)

JEREMY GUTHRIE vs. DETROIT since 1997
GUTHRIE is 3-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.388.
His team's record is 4-4 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-3. (+1.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (62 - 69) at LA ANGELS (68 - 62) - 10:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 32-37 (-14.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BOSTON is 37-43 (-11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 62-69 (-21.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 9-18 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in August games this season.
BOSTON is 56-64 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 41-50 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 37-51 (-25.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LESTER is 11-15 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 26-27 (-17.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 7-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 4-10 (-10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 25-3 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 25-3 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 27-10 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 16-1 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 16-0 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 33-34 (-12.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
LA ANGELS are 68-62 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA ANGELS are 127-118 (-63.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 36-45 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 66-57 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 5-0 (+5.0 Units) against BOSTON this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

JON LESTER vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
LESTER is 5-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.368.
His team's record is 7-3 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.2 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. BOSTON since 1997
GREINKE is 1-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.255.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, August 30


Series won-lost records are now below the daily writeup.......

Hot pitchers
-- Kendrick is 3-0, 0.83 in his last three starts. Niese is 2-1, 1.61 in his last three starts.
-- Kershaw is 5-1, 1.94 in his last six starts.

-- Parker is 1-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts. Masterson is 3-1, 4.26 in his last four starts.
-- Quintana is 1-1, 3.08 in his last four starts.
-- Moore is 4-0, 1.69 in his last six starts.
-- Lester is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Marcum allowed four runs in five IP in his first start since June 14. Raley is 1-2, 7.08 in four starts for the Cubs.
-- JGarcia is 0-3, 6.55 in his last four starts. Jackson is 1-3, 4.55 in his last five outings.
-- Vogelsong is 1-2, 10.50 in his last three starts. Lyles is 1-5, 7.72 in his last eight starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-3, 7.59 in his last four starts.

-- Britton is 1-1, 9.90 in his last four starts.
-- Duensing is 1-3, 8.89 in his last five starts. Beavan is 1-2, 5.24 in his last four starts.
-- Villanueva is 0-4, 4.06 in his last five starts.
-- Porcello is 0-3, 5.50 in his last three starts. Guthrie is 0-0, 7.84 in his last couple starts.
-- Greinke is 1-2, 5.40 in three home starts for the Angels.

Hot Teams
-- Mets won their last four games, allowing nine runs.
-- Brewers won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Giants won nine of their last twelve games.

-- Oakland won 11 of its last 13 games.
-- White Sox won seven of their last nine games. Orioles won 12 of their last 16 home games.
-- Royals won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Mariners won ten of their last fourteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost their last five home games with the Mets.
-- Cardinals didn't score a run in losing last two games. Washington lost five of its last six games.
-- Cubs lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Astros lost 11 of their last 12 games.
-- Arizona lost its last six games, outscored 33-13. Dodgers lost eight of their last thirteen games.

-- Indians lost 13 of their last 14 games.
-- Toronto lost 11 of its last 14 games. Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games.
-- Twins lost 15 of their last 19 games.
-- Detroit lost five of its last seven home games.
-- Boston lost six of its last eight road games. Angels lost four of their last six home games.

Totals
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Philly's last seven games.
-- Nine of last twelve Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Washington games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Arizona's last eight games.

-- Six of last eight Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-2 in last seven White Sox games.
-- Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen Seattle games.
-- 11 of last 16 Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Tampa Bay road game went over the total.
-- 18 of last 26 Angel games went over the total.

Umpires
-- NY-Phil-- Four of last five Bell games went over total.
-- Mil-Chi-- Under is 15-8-1 in last 24 Nelson games.
-- SF-Hst-- Under is 12-7 in last nineteen Everitt games.

-- A's-Clev-- 22 of last 25 Emmel games (0 of last 2) went over.
-- Chi-Blt-- Favorites won seven of last eight Runge games.
-- Sea-Min-- Favorites won 11 of last 14 Danley games.
-- Det-KC-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Gonzalez games.
-- Bos-LA-- West's last four games behind plate all went over.

2012 baseball series records

thru 8/30
Home Away Total
Arizona 9-9-3 6-11-4 15-20-7
Atlanta 10-7-4 12-6-3 22-13-7
Cubs 11-10 3-14-4 14-24-4
Cincinnati 13-6-2 11-6-4 24-12-6
Colorado 8-11-3 4-15-1 12-26-4
Houston 7-13-1 1-20 8-33-1
Dodgers 11-9-1 10-10-1 21-20-2
Miami 7-9-4 6-12-4 13-21-8
Milwaukee 12-7-2 5-14-1 17-21-3
Mets 8-12-1 8-12-1 16-24-2
Philadelphia 8-11-3 10-8-2 18-19-5
Pittsburgh 13-7-1 9-8-4 22-15-5
St Louis 12-7-2 9-11-1 21-18-3
San Diego 10-9-2 6-13-2 16-22-4
San Francisco 12-5-4 12-7-2 24-12-6
Washington 11-5-4 14-5-3 25-10-7
Baltimore 10-9-2 13-6-1 23-15-3
Boston 10-12 9-8-3 19-20-3
White Sox 12-8-1 9-8-3 21-16-4
Cleveland 7-11-3 8-12-1 15-23-4
Detroit 12-6-3 7-12-2 19-18-5
Kansas City 8-11-1 9-9-4 17-20-5
Angels 12-6-3 7-12-2 19-18-5
Minnesota 5-12-3 8-11-2 13-23-5
Bronx 13-6-2 11-7-3 24-13-5
A's 11-6-4 10-9-3 21-15-7
Seattle 10-9-1 8-13-1 18-22-2
Tampa Bay 9-9-3 11-9-1 20-18-4
Texas 16-4-2 11-8-1 27-12-3
Toronto 9-9-2 6-12-4 15-21-6
 

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Thursday, August 30


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Trend Report
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12:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

12:35 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. BALTIMORE
Chi White Sox are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games
Chi White Sox are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:05 PM
NY METS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Mets are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle

2:20 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Milwaukee's last 23 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Chi Cubs's last 23 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games at home

7:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis

7:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TORONTO
Tampa Bay is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

8:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco

8:10 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing Detroit
Kansas City is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit

10:05 PM
BOSTON vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing LA Angels
Boston is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels are 8-15 SU in their last 23 games when playing Boston
LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Boston

10:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. LA DODGERS
Arizona is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Arizona is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
 

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Thursday, August 30


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Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
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Streaking

Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia Phillies (7-9, 4.12 ERA)


Kendrick makes his first start against the Mets. In two relief appearances against New York this season, he has allowed five earned runs with four walks in 2 1/3 innings. He has blossomed in his return to the rotation, going 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA in five starts this month.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (10-7, 3.60 ERA)

Moore has won four consecutive decisions and last lost on July 22 to the Seattle Mariners. He is 5-1 with a 1.97 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star break. Moore is 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two starts against Toronto. He took a no-decision against the Oakland Athletics in his last outing, allowing three runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.


Slumping

Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (9-9, 4.60 ERA)


Porcello's next win will give him double-digit victories in each of his first four seasons in the majors, but he has been denied that milestone with three straight losses. His last two outings have been quality starts, but he got little run support. Porcello held Kansas City to three runs over eight innings in a win May 1 in Detroit, improving to 5-2 with a 4.56 ERA in 12 starts against the Royals.

Jamie Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals (3-5, 4.15 ERA)

Garcia is making his third start since returning from a shoulder injury that sidelined him two-plus months. He had a sharp first outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates – striking out 10 and allowing just two unearned runs in eight innings in a no-decision – before losing to Cincinnati in his last start. Garcia gave up four runs and seven hits in six innings against the Reds. He is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in three career starts against Washington.
 

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Thursday, August 30


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Four pitchers hitting the wall down the home stretch
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Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has pitched almost 197 innings of baseball and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

The former American League Cy Young winner has a 0.35 ERA in his last three starts, including the 23rd perfect game in major league history on August 15. Hernandez is known for eating up the innings and finishing the season strong.

But, as baseball bettors know, arms like King Felix are few and far between. There are many pitchers climbing the pitch count as the calendar flips to September and appear to be running on fumes.

Here are four pitchers who could hit the wall down the home stretch of the schedule:

Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners (13-9, 3.90 ERA, 184.2 IP)

Vargas was just placed on waivers by the Mariners (they saw this one coming) and is expected to get gobbled up by a contender for the home stretch. He’s one of the best moneymaking arms in the American League (+6.82 units), but the southpaw was way off in his most recent offerings. Vargas was dinged for six earned runs on seven hits – three home runs – and lasted only four innings against the White Sox, then allowed five runs - two home runs - in 4 2-3 innings against the Twins. It will be interesting to see where the 37 year old ends up and if he has anything left in the tank.

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians (10-11, 4.60 ERA, 168.1 IP)

Pitching in Cleveland would leave anyone sick and tired come the final month of the slate. Masterson, however, has been solid for the Tribe this year. The up-and-down season is beginning to wear on the right-hander, who has gone seven or more innings just once in his last six starts. Masterson looked good versus the Yankees in his last outing but was touched for seven earned runs in the previous start.

C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels (10-9, 3.86 ERA, 170.1 IP)

Wilson hasn’t been able to stand the summer heat, posting a 1-3 record and an ERA just south of 8.00 in five August starts. Before Wednesday's win over the Red Sox, the Halos' hurler hadn't earned a “W” since late June and hemorrhaged 13 runs in the two starts before that. Wilson was hit in the hand by a come-backer earlier this month, so he may have an excuse.

Chris Capuano, Los Angeles Dodgers (11-10, 3.58 ERA, 168.2 IP)

Capuano could learn a thing or two from teammate Clayton Kershaw. While Kershaw is one of the best innings eaters in all of baseball, Capuano looks like he may be scraping the bottom of the barrel after a rough outing versus the Giants. The lefty has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 11 innings of work and fell to 2-6 since the All-Star break after an 8-4 loss to the Rockies Tuesday.
 

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Short Sheet

Thursday, August 30


National League

NY Mets at Philadelphia, 1:05 ET

Niese: Mets 12-2 SU on Thursdays
Kendrick: Philadelphia 0-7 SU off a division loss by 1 run

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 ET
Marcum: Milwaukee 10-1 Over off 6+ road games
Raley: Cubs 6-21 SU in August

St. Louis at Washington, 7:05 ET MLB
Garcia: St. Louis 30-14 SU off a loss by 4+ runs
Jackson: 8-17 TSR pitching on 5 or 6 days rest

San Francisco at Houston, 8:05 ET
Vogelsong: 11-2 TSR in night games
Lyles: 4-19 TSR pitching off a team loss

Arizona at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Kennedy: 19-4 TSR vs. division opponents
Kershaw: Dodgers 6-13 SU revenging a loss as a home favorite


American League

Oakland at Cleveland, 12:05 ET

Parker: Oakland 14-6 SU after winning 8+ of their last 10 games
Masterson: Cleveland 4-17 SU after losing 15+ of their last 20 games

(TC) Chicago White Sox at Baltimore, 12:35 ET
Quintana: White Sox 25-8 SU with a total of 9 to 9.5 runs
Britton: Baltimore 13-3 Under after scoring 1 or 0 runs

Seattle at Minnesota, 1:10 ET
Beavan: Seattle 15-35 SU as a road underdog of +125 or less
Duensing: 18-4 TSR as a favorite

Tampa Bay at Toronto, 7:05 ET MLB
Moore: Tampa Bay 17-8 SU away in August
Villanueva: Toronto 2-11 SU off 7+ road games

Detroit at Kansas City, 8:10 ET
Porcello: 11-1 TSR as a road favorite of -150 or less
Guthrie: 11-1 Over as a home underdog of +125 or less

Boston at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Lester: Boston 6-14 SU off a loss by 4+ runs
Greinke: 16-1 TSR at home pitching off a team win

(TC) = Time Change
 

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Thursday's betting tips: Phoenix Mercury the worst bet in sports

Weather watch

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for tonight’s season-opening SEC showdown between South Carolina and Vanderbilt. There is a 30 percent chance of showers and winds blowing 7 mph at Vanderbilt Stadium.

Who’s hot?

Oakland Athletics – The A’s have won five straight heading into Thursday’s matinee with Cleveland. Oakland has outscored opponents 27-10 during this streak and is priced at -102 for Thursday.

Who’s not?

Phoenix Mercury – The Mercury have dropped 10 in a row going back before the WNBA Olympic break. Since returning to action earlier this month, Phoenix has lost four straight outings and has posted a 0-4 mark against the spread. The Mercury have covered just once during this 10-game slide.

Key stat

.217 – Angels rookie sensation Mike Trout is hitting the wall, going just 5-for-23 (.217) with eight strikeouts in his last five games.

Game of the day

South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+6.5, 45)

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Angel McCoughtry, Atlanta Dream – While it’s not an injury, the suspension of McCoughtry for violating team rules hurt the Dream Tuesday night, losing 84-80 to Tulsa – one of the worst teams in the WNBA. McCoughtry, who leads Atlanta in scoring, steals, blocks and 3-point shooting, was rumored to be feuding with coach-GM Marynell Meadors, who was fired earlier this week. The Dream are 9.5-point home favorites versus Washington Thursday.

Notable quotable

"It's just a matter of time before they get you, basically. And that's unfortunate. I think (Jon) Lester knows that. I think Clay Buchholz knows that. Your time will come." – former Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett bashing the Boston media and sports culture in Beantown.

Betting news and notes

-- The St. Louis Rams and San Diego Chargers are two teams planning on playing their starters in Week 4 of the preseason. Most teams rest their starters in the final preseason tilt. St. Louis is a 5-point favorite hosting Baltimore while San Diego is 3-point underdog versus San Francisco Thursday.

-- UCLA went 1-4 against non-conference foes last year and 1-6 on the road. The Bruins take on the Rice Owls in their season opener as 16.5-point road favorites.

-- UNLV and Minnesota have never previously met. The Rebels are 2-10 against Big Ten schools and the Golden Gophers are 5-2 against schools currently in the Mountain West.

-- The Dodgers are 50-4 when scoring five or more runs this season. Los Angeles scored 10 runs in a 10-8 win over Colorado Wednesday and is a -200 fave hosting Arizona Thursday.

-- The first two games of the Tigers-Royals series have been one-run affairs in favor of the Royals, who are 22-16 in one-run games. Detroit is 17-19 in one-run contests. Kansas City is a +117 home underdog Thursday.

-- The Deutsche Bank Championship takes center stage from TPC Boston in Norton, Massachusetts on this holiday weekend event that runs from Friday to Monday. TPC Boston has been one of the easier stops in recent years and there is no reason to think it will be any different this week. The 7,214-yard, par 71 layout is fairly wide open but it is the large greens that are pretty straight forward that contribute to the low scores.
 

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Thursday, August 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 7:05 PM ET St. Louis +103 500
Washington - Under 8 500

Tampa Bay - 7:07 PM ET Toronto +141 500
Toronto - Over 8 500

San Francisco - 8:05 PM ET San Francisco -172 500
Houston - Under 8 500

Detroit - 8:10 PM ET Kansas City +108 500
Kansas City - Under 9 500

Boston - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -150 500
LA Angels - Over 8 500

Arizona - 10:10 PM ET Arizona +190 500
LA Dodgers - Under 6.5 500
 

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1


Thursday's games

South Carolina won 10 of its last 12 games with SEC rival Vanderbilt, winning last three by average score of 19-7. Gamecocks won five of last six visits here (4-2 vs spread). This is smallest series pointspread since 2006, a Commodores have improved their program. Vandy was 3-0 as a home dog LY, after going 8-18 from '04-'10; their QB is Jordan Rodgers, brother of Packer QB Aaron- he started seven games LY. Carolina's QB is Connor Shaw, who was nine career starts. Gamecocks are 7-4-1 as a road favorite since '06.

Terry Bowden is the new coach at Akron, which is 5-31 last three years. Central Florida-Akron haven't met since 2004; Zips have eight starters back on offense, five on defense- they're 4-8 as home dogs over last three years. Akron's starting QB LY completed only 48% of his passes LY, which is awful, so not sure if he is still the starter. UCF has 8 starters back on both sides of ball; since '03, they're 7-13 as a road favorite and will have a new QB. One candidate is Tyler Gabbert, brother of Blaine.

Underdogs covered seven of last nine Eastern Michigan-Ball State games, with Ball State winning five of last six. Last three series games have been decided by three or less points. Eastern had 570 rushing yards last two meetings, but split the pair. Ball has 8 tarters back on offense; their QB has 22 career starts, so they're strong there, especially with four starters back on OL. EMU is 8-5 as a road dog last two years; they've got nine starters back on offense and a QB with 27 career starts. Ball State is 1-7 as a home favorite since Brady Hoke left town.

Texas A&M-Louisiana Tech game has been postponed because of the tropical storm. Game will be made up on October 13.

UMass is playing its first game in I-A; they lost 42-37 at Michigan two years ago, 45-17 at Boston College LY; UMass QB Pagel is son of Colts' alum Mike Pagel; he had nine TDs, nine INT LY. Minutemen have had negative turnover ratio four years in row, while going 23-22. UConn has 8 starters back on defense, 6 on offense; over last decade, they're 30-20 as a favorite, 20-15 at home. Huskies have three starters back on the OL; they're +20 in turnovers the last two seasons.

First game at UCLA for former NFL coach Mora, with 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense. Bruins have Nebraska coming to Rose Bowl next week, better not be looking ahead here-- this is first time since '09 they're favored to win a road game (2-0 as road fave under Neuheisel). Rice is 10-26 last three years, but 13-7-1 vs spread as home underdog since 2006. Owls lost six starters on both sides of ball, but their junior QB has started ten games. They lost four starters on offensive line.

Mike Leach is new coach at Washington State, so we know Coogs will be throwing the ball; State has 7 starters back on both sides of ball, with three starters back on OL-- they were 7-4 as road dog last two seasons under Wulff, but they were 9-40 SU in his four years. Independent BYU is 19-13 as a home favorite since '06; they play archrival Utah in couple weeks, not sure they'll show everything here. BYU also has 7 starters back on both sides of ball, with a senior QB who has 17 career starts.

UNLV is starting a redshirt freshman QB, as they try to turn around a program that is 4-21 SU under Hauck, but 6-2-1 vs spread as home dog. Home side has covered 20 of their last 24 games. Rebels have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, with their whole OL back. Minnesota is 7-13 as a favorite since '07, losing 11 of last 15 road games SU. Gophers have six starters back on both sides of ball, with athletic senior QB who has also played some WR- they've got three sophs, two juniors starting on OL. It'll take some onions to lay 8 points on road with Gophers.

UT-San Antonio-South Alabama game has been moved to Saturday due to the tropical storm. This is both teams' first game in I-A.
 

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What bettors need to know: Thursday's NCAAF action

The NCAA football season kicks off Thursday with 17 games on the schedule for bettors to choose from. We give you the essential tidbits on five of them to make your wagers.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Runnin' Rebels (+8.5, 50)

Jerry Kill's first season as the head coach in Minnesota resulted in a 3-9 record. Kill, a kidney cancer survivor, suffered two seizures last year, including one on the field against New Mexico State on Sept. 10. Minnesota ranked 110th in total offense in 2011 and will rely heavily on senior quarterback MarQueis Gray to improve the offense this season.

UNLV’s passing offense ranked 118th out of 120 FBS programs with an average of just 109.6 YPG. If quarterback Caleb Herring doesn’t show he’s improved since last season, 6-foot-5 freshman Nick Sherry could get a shot at running the offense.

Washington State Cougars at Brigham Young Cougars (-13.5, 62)

Mike Leach became well known for his "Air Raid" offense while at Texas Tech and will bring similar schemes to Washington State this season. The Cougars ranked ninth in the nation in passing (322.3 YPG) last season and should only improve on that mark under the tutelage of Leach.

BYU is coming off of a 10-3 season and has a returning starter at quarterback. Senior Riley Nelson, who went 6-1 in games he started last season, is already considered a candidate for the 2012 Davey O'Brien Award.

UCLA Bruins at Rice Owls (+15.5, 56)

Jim Mora Jr's first game as a college head coach is on the road against Rice. The Bruins are 60-28-5 all-time in season openers, but are still searching for a No. 1 quarterback to lead the offense this season. Senior Richard Brehaut is the most likely candidate for the starting gig, but Kevin Prince and redshirt freshman Brett Hundley have been impressive in camp.

The Owls missed the bowl season for the third consecutive season and finished fourth in the C-USA's West Division last year. Head coach David Bailiff spent a significant amount of time reviewing Arizona State tape with his players to break down the schemes that Noel Mazzone, UCLA’s new offensive coordinator, used during his tenure with the Sun Devils.

South Carolina Gamecocks (9) at Vanderbilt Commodores (+7, 46)

South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw missed most of practice Thursday because of back spasms, just a week before the ninth-ranked Gamecocks open the season at Vanderbilt. Shaw is a junior beginning his first full season as starting quarterback. He took over last fall for Stephen Garcia, who was dismissed from the program.

Running back Warren Norman will see his first game action since Oct. 30, 2010, because of injuries. Remember, Norman broke Herschel Walker’s SEC single-season freshman all-purpose yardage record in 2009 and should be a force this season for Vandy.

Central Florida Knights at Akron Zips (+23.5, 46.5)

The Knights hold a 21-12 record in openers and have won their last six. The Knights went 5-7 in 2011 with a 3-5 mark in Conference USA. Central Florida had six selections to the C-USA All-Freshman Team, marking the most by a league school since 2008.

The Zips have six quarterbacks on their roster, five of which are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The only pivot with collegiate experience is senior Dalton Williams, who was the backup quarterback at Stephen F. Austin from 2008-11. The Zips are 3-0 all-time when hosting the Knights.
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NCAAF biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

If your handicapping method leans heavily on spotting mismatches, Week 1 of the college football season is your Christmas morning.

Heavyweight title-contending programs like to stretch their legs against much weaker foes, even locking horns with some FCS squads in an effort to boost confidence and iron out the details before the “real” games begin.

However, some teams are tested right out of the gate. And those are the contests we’ll focus on in our first NCAAF mismatches article of the year.

UMass Minutemen at UConn Huskies (-24.5)

UMass' FBS jitters vs. UConn's aggressive defense

The Minutemen meet an old foe in their first FBS game. Massachusetts goes up against an aggressive and experienced defense, with the Huskies returning eight starters including all three linebackers. Connecticut ranked at the bottom of the Big East in pass defense last year but gambled a lot, forcing 31 turnovers (13 fumbles, 18 interceptions). Expect the Huskies to take advantage of a nervous Minutemen squad.

Boise State Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-7, 45.5)

Michigan State RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Boise State run defense

Bell finished eighth in the Big Ten in rushing as a sophomore and will get even more carries as a junior with the major turnover in talent in the Spartans’ passing game. Boise State head coach Chris Petersen knows he’s in for a long night against the 6-foot-2, 244-pound running back, losing all for starting linemen as well as the top three linebackers from 2011.

"We've taped two of our running backs together and they carry the ball at the same time to get a little feel of what it'd be like to really tackle a guy (that size), because we don't have anybody around here who looks like that," Peterson told mlive.com. "He is a load. And that'll be different for our guys."

Nevada Wolf Pack at California Golden Bears (-10.5, 55.5)

Nevada’s pistol offense vs. California defense

The last time these two met, Nevada’s option-heavy package rolled over the Golden Bears for a 52-31 win back in 2010. Of course, former QB Colin Kaepernick did most of the damage. The Wolf Pack have another dangerous dual-threat in sophomore QB Cody Fajardo, who rushed for 11 touchdowns last season. Cal’s defense suffered some serious losses, most notably Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year LB Mychal Kendricks.

 

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What bettors need to know: Thursday's NCAAF action

The NCAA football season kicks off Thursday with 17 games on the schedule for bettors to choose from. We give you the essential tidbits on five of them to make your wagers.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Runnin' Rebels (+8.5, 50)

Jerry Kill's first season as the head coach in Minnesota resulted in a 3-9 record. Kill, a kidney cancer survivor, suffered two seizures last year, including one on the field against New Mexico State on Sept. 10. Minnesota ranked 110th in total offense in 2011 and will rely heavily on senior quarterback MarQueis Gray to improve the offense this season.

UNLV’s passing offense ranked 118th out of 120 FBS programs with an average of just 109.6 YPG. If quarterback Caleb Herring doesn’t show he’s improved since last season, 6-foot-5 freshman Nick Sherry could get a shot at running the offense.

Washington State Cougars at BYU Cougars (-12, 65)

Mike Leach became well known for his "Air Raid" offense while at Texas Tech and will bring similar schemes to Washington State this season. The Cougars ranked ninth in the nation in passing (322.3 YPG) last season and should only improve on that mark under the tutelage of Leach.

BYU is coming off of a 10-3 season and has a returning starter at quarterback. Senior Riley Nelson, who went 6-1 in games he started last season, is already considered a candidate for the 2012 Davey O'Brien Award.

UCLA Bruins at Rice Owls (+15.5, 56)

Jim Mora Jr's first game as a college head coach is on the road against Rice. The Bruins are 60-28-5 all-time in season openers, but are still searching for a No. 1 quarterback to lead the offense this season. Senior Richard Brehaut is the most likely candidate for the starting gig, but Kevin Prince and redshirt freshman Brett Hundley have been impressive in camp.

The Owls missed the bowl season for the third consecutive season and finished fourth in the C-USA's West Division last year. Head coach David Bailiff spent a significant amount of time reviewing Arizona State tape with his players to break down the schemes that Noel Mazzone, UCLA’s new offensive coordinator, used during his tenure with the Sun Devils.

South Carolina Gamecocks (9) at Vanderbilt Commodores (+7, 46)

South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw missed most of practice Thursday because of back spasms, just a week before the ninth-ranked Gamecocks open the season at Vanderbilt. Shaw is a junior beginning his first full season as starting quarterback. He took over last fall for Stephen Garcia, who was dismissed from the program.

Running back Warren Norman will see his first game action since Oct. 30, 2010, because of injuries. Remember, Norman broke Herschel Walker’s SEC single-season freshman all-purpose yardage record in 2009 and should be a force this season for Vandy.

Central Florida Knights at Akron Zips (+23.5, 46.5)

The Knights hold a 21-12 record in openers and have won their last six. The Knights went 5-7 in 2011 with a 3-5 mark in Conference USA. Central Florida had six selections to the C-USA All-Freshman Team, marking the most by a league school since 2008.

The Zips have six quarterbacks on their roster, five of which are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The only pivot with collegiate experience is senior Dalton Williams, who was the backup quarterback at Stephen F. Austin from 2008-11. The Zips are 3-0 all-time when hosting the Knights.
 

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Friday, Aug. 31

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TENNESSEE vs. NC STATE...(at Atlanta, Georgia)Tom O'Brien teams usually wait to rally down the stretch, as his NCS teams are 1-4 vs. line in their openers. But Wolfpack is 9-3-1 as dog the past two seasons and 26-13-1 as the short since O'Brien took over in 2007. Derek Dooley is 8-3 as chalk the past two years but but Vols have failed to cover their last five games away from Knoxville (0-4 LY).

NC State, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Boise in rebuild mode but has been a great road team in recent years, 11-3 vs. line away since 2010 and 24-10 since 2007. Chris Petersen also has covered last ten vs. non-conference foes. Broncos haven't been a dog since Jan. 2010 Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU. Dantonio 9-5 vs. line at home since 2010.

Boise, based on extended road and non-conference mark.

SAN JOSE STATE at STANFORD...David Shaw 11-2 vs. line in Stanford debut last season with Andrew Luck. Tree also 18-6 as chalk since 2010 and 8-3 laying DD at home since 2007. Tree has also covered last four meetings in this neighborhood rivalry. SJSU did cover 5 of last 6 away LY and is 10-4 vs. line last 14 on board since late 2010.

Stanford, based on recent trends.


Saturday, Sept. 1

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY (at Dublin, Ireland!)...Never mind the Fighting Irish in Ireland, it is a bigger deal in Dublin to have the U.S. Naval Academy in town! Navy had covered seven of ten vs. ND and beaten Irish 3 of 4 SU prior to LY's 56-14 loss at South Bend. Mids 6-2 as dog since 2010 and 15-8 as dog away from Annapolis since 2007. Irish 2-5 vs. line away LY, and Brian Kelly has covered only 7 of 19 as chalk since arriving in 2010.

Navy, based on team and extended series trends.

MARSHALL at WEST VIRGINIA...This was one of the suspended games with no spread result last season. Herd had covered previous two meetings in 2009-10 but Mounties had covered previous three. But Herd only 4-8 as road dog the past two seasons. Holgorsen only 2-3 as Morgantown chalk LY.

Slight to WVU, based on subpar Herd road mark.

OHIO at PENN STATE... Frank Solich 18-9 as dog since 2007, also 10-2 as road dog getting 3 ½ -points or more that span. Solich 3-1 vs. line last four against Big Ten. Penn State 3-9-1 vs. points in 2011, 8-17-1 since 2010, and 4-9-1 at Happy Valley vs. spread past two years. O'Brien debut at Beaver Stadium.

Solich, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at SYRACUSE...NU a bit overvalued the past few years and only 9-17 vs. line since 2010, although Cats have covered five of last eight away from Evanston. Cuse, however, just 3-9 vs. spread LY and 12-20 vs. spread at Carrier Dome since 2007.

Northwestern, based on Cuse negatives.

MIAMI-OHIO at OHIO STATE...Urban Meyer OSU debut! Urban covered four of last five first games on line while at Florida. Bucks were a great spread team at Big Horseshoe for Tressel (17-9 from 2007-10) but slumped last year under Luke Fickell to just 2-4 spread mark at home. Paul Ryan's alma mater Miami is 10-5 vs. line away past two seasons (5-3 as DD road dog) and RedHawks 4-1 vs. spread last five vs. Big Ten foes.

Slight to Miami-Ohio, based on road mark.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS...Beckman Illini debut! Beckman involved in some wild games vs. WMU the past few years while at Toledo (Rockets won 66-63 LY but couldn't cover!). Illini were erratic spread performers in the Zook years reflected in subpar 15-22 spread mark at home from 2007-11. Cubit was 4-1 as dog LY and covered in close loss at Champaign-Urbana.

WMU, based on team trends.

TULSA at IOWA STATE...Game is near pick'em so be careful applying past Paul Rhodes ISU trends which have been generally better as dog (7-4 LY) than as chalk (2-4 since 2010). Tulsa just 4-7 vs. line last 11 vs. non-CUSA foes.

Slight ti ISU, based on team trends.

NEVADA at CALIFORNIA...Memorial Stadium reopens in Berkeley! Revenge for Bears after losing 52-31 in Reno two years ago. Cal enjoyed playing across the SF Bay last season with 5-0 home chalk mark at Candlestick and AT&T Parks, and Bears now 9-1 as home favorite since 2010 and 20-6 in role since 2007. Cal 3-0 as DD home chalk since 2010, too. Wolf Pack, however, 5-2 as dog since 2010.

Slight to Cal, based on recent home chalk trend.

SOUTHERN MISS at NEBRASKA...Ellis Johnson era begins at Southern Miss, let's see if it is better than his last couple of head coaching jobs (including long ago in the early '80s at Gardner-Webb). The Fedora USM edition was 3-0 as a dog LY and is 7-2 getting 7 1/2-points or more on road since 2007. Bo Pelini just 4-8-1 vs. line LY and 5-9 vs. spread at Lincoln since 2010, also only 2-8 vs. line as DD home chalk past two years.

Slight to USM, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at BOSTON COLLEGE...Spaziani in more trouble with BC AD Gene DeFilippo announcing pending retirement. Spaziani closed with a rush vs. spread LY but is just 3-10 vs. spread at home since 2010 and if chalk note 1-7 spread mark in role at Chestnut Hill that span. If Al Golden is a dog note his 3-1 mark in role (all on road) last season and 18-9 dog mark since 2007.

Miami, especially if dog, based on team trends.

IOWA vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (at Soldier Field, Chicago)...Trek to Chi-town didn't work so well for NIU LY but that was against Wisconsin. Iowa seems a lesser foe. Hawkeyes only 5-8 vs. line LY and are 3-9 vs. spread away from home the past two seasons (0-3 laying 7 ½ or more away). Huskies are 9-2 vs. spread as road dog since 2010!

NIU, based on team trends.

COLORADO vs. COLORADO STATE (at Denver)...McElwain CSU debut! Buffs have won and covered last two and four of last five vs. Rams. Which was odd for CU because it hasn't been able to cover too often vs. others the past couple of years (just 9-16 overall vs. number since 2010). CSU, however, only 4-9 vs. line away from Fort Collins the past two seasons and mere 10-16 as dog away from home since 2007.

CU, based on series trends.

BUFFALO at GEORGIA... Mark Richt has run up scores pretty well the past two seasons, 8-3 as home chalk and 7-2 laying DD between the hedges that span. Buffalo 3-9 vs. line away (all as dog) since 2010 and 1-6 as DD road dog that span.
Georgia, based on team trends and recent Richt bully tendencies.

BOWLING GREEN at FLORIDA...BGSU's extended road dog mark dating back to the Gregg Brandon years is pretty good (16-7 since 2007, including 9-5 getting DD away). Muschamp only 5-8 vs. line in Gator debut LY but was better as chalk (5-3 vs. points) than as dog (0-5 against number).

Bowling Green, based on extended trends.

WYOMING at TEXAS...The Fred Akers game! Note how Wyo was smashed in its losses last season, but Cowboys did cover 4 of 6 as a dog away from Laramie, and Christensen 10-4 as road dog since taking Wyo job in 2009. Mack recovered a bit at Austin last season, covering all three laying DD at home, after disastrous 2010 (when 1-6 vs. line at home) but still only 4-9 against spread as host since 2010.

Slight to Wyo, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at HOUSTON...Franchione returns to the big board with the Bobcats! Tony Levine 1-0 SU and vs. spread with UH after bowl win over Penn State and note Sumlin was 13-7-1 as chalk with Cougs the last two years (6-2-1 laying DD at home).

Houston, based on team trends.

CLEMSON vs. AUBURN (at Atlanta, GA)...All-Tiger battle! Revenge for Chizik after losing LY at Death Valley, and Dabo has covered last two years in this series. Chizik won in this building last December in Chick fil-A but only covered one of five away from Jordan-Hare in regular season a year ago. Chizik also 1-4 as dog away from home last year. Dabo has covered opener the alst three years.

Dabo, based on team and series trends.
HAWAII at SOUTHERN CAL... Norm Chow debut for UH and no love lost between him and Lane Kiffin. McMackin's last Warrior team was 4-9 vs. line and 2-5 vs. spread on road, although UH has mostly held its own as DD road dog in recent times (5-4 in role since 2007). Kiffin is only 5-8 vs. line as host the past two years but please note Trojans won and covered last four and six of last seven down stretch a year ago.

Slight to SC, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN vs. ALABAMA (at Jerry Jones Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Nick Saban is 17-9 vs. line last two seasons and 12-4 laying DD that span, Bama also 26-13 against spread since 2009. Brady Hoke, however, 8-4 vs. line LY, 16-8 last two years (SDSU and Michigan).

Slight to Michigan, based on Hoke marks.

RUTGERS at TULANE...Curtis Johnson Tulane debut, Kyle Flood Rutgers debut! Wave looking to get physical, but only 3-10 vs. line at home since 2010 (2-5 as home dog) and 8-22 against points at Superdome since 2007. Rutgers 4-1 as DD road chalk for Schiano in 2007-11 but only 5-6-1 vs. spread away 2011-11.

Slight to Rutgers, based on Tulane negatives.


OKLAHOMA at UTEP...Mike Price on hot seat. Stoops has actually not been so great as road chalk lately (7-6 since 2010) and was just 6-5 laying DD LY. Miners' recent marks very so-so as well and Price only 1-6 vs. line last seven hosting non-CUSA foes at Sun Bowl.

Slight to OU, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at ARIZONA...Rich-Rod UA debut! Matt Campbell technically debuted for Rockets in bowl win vs. Air Force last December. Toledo nothing special as dog (5-5) past two seasons, and 2-2 as DD road dog since 2010. The Cats were underachievers the past two years (9-16 vs. line and 6-10 as chalk), and note Rodriguez' 5-15 chalk mark in his Michigan stint between 2008-10.

Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at WASHINGTON...Rocky Long 2-4 vs. line away LY, while Sarkisian 5-2 vs. spread as host.

Slight to U-Dub, based on team trends.


Saturday, Sept. 1 - Added Games

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TROY at UAB...Tough 2011 for Blakeney as Troy slipped to 3-9 vs. line and now Trojans are 8-17 vs. spread the past two seasons (4-12 as chalk). McGee UAB debut, note Blazers 6-3 as dog LY and 10-5 in role since 2010 (4-1 as road dog that span). UAB has covered last two years in series in a pair of 1-point games.

Slight to UAB, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at DUKE...Mario Cristobal 3-1 as dog LY and 7-3 as dog since 2010. Revenge for Golden Panthers after bitter 31-27 home loss LY. Cutcliffe above-average 13-9-2 vs. spread since 2010 and 2-2 as home chalk that span.

FIU, based on Cristobal dog marks.

NORTH TEXAS at LSU...Dan McCarney covered 7 of last 10 a year ago for UNT. Les Miles has been a bit overvalued at home lately, only 6-7 vs. spread at home since 2010 (4-6 laying DD at Baton Rouge) and 12-21 against line as host since 2007.

Slight to UNT, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at OREGON...Gus Malzahn Ark State debut! Red Wolves were outstanding 10-2 vs. line in regular-season a year ago with Hugh Freeze as the coach and they are 4-1 as DD road dog since 2010. Webfoots had some problems laying the big points at home last season (2-5-1 as DD Autzen chalk).

Slight to Ark State, based on team trends.


Sunday, Sept. 2

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE...Note that road team has covered the last four in this series. Charlie Strong has fared better vs. line on road than at Papa John's, where he was 2-4 vs. spread LY and is only 4-9 since 2010.

Kentucky, based on series road and team trends.

SMU at BAYLOR...Old SWC rivals. Was it Griffin or the Art Briles offense making Baylor so good the past few years? Some of each but Bears did slip when RG III went down in 2009. Briles was 6-0 vs. line at home LY, June Jones just 3-6 as road dog past two seasons.

Baylor, based on team trends.


Monday, Sept. 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

GEORGIA TECH at VIRGINIA TECH...Winner of this game has won ACC Coastal the past seven years. Paul Johnson has covered 3 of last 4 vs. Beamer but the VT cover came a year ago. But Johnson spread marks have been less than so-so the past couple of years (10-15-1 since 2010) and only 4-6 as road dog that span. Beamer tailed off in uncharacteristically bad spread effort LY (4-10) and is just 12-17 vs. spread at Blacksburg since 2007.

Slight to GT, based on extended VPI home negatives.
 

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Thursday, August 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Carolina - 7:00 PM ET South Carolina -7 500
Vanderbilt - Over 45.5 500

Central Florida - 7:00 PM ET Akron +23.5 500
Akron - Over 49 500

Eastern Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Ball State -3.5 500
Ball State - Under 59 500

UCLA - 7:30 PM ET UCLA -15.5 500
Rice - Under 59 500

Massachusetts - 7:30 PM ET Connecticut -24.5 500
Connecticut - Over 45.5 500

Washington State - 10:15 PM ET Brigham Young -13.5 500
Brigham Young - Under 65 500

Minnesota - 11:00 PM ET Minnesota -8.5 500
UNLV - Under 50 500
 

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