The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - August 30, 2012 - YTD: 305-276-34 (52-32-7 in August, 62%)

2012 MLB O/U Record: 305-276-34, -$1,107 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Okay, only a 1-1 day yesterday, but that one win was yet another best bet victory, allowing me to be up for the day, which is always the most important thing. Wednesday’s performance also made me 52-32-7 (62%) for the month of August, which, if this pace continues, would be the greatest record I’ve had in a month for my career (My best month last year, record-wise, was September, when I went 58-37-8), so hopefully it continues over these final two days. As for today, I’m starting bright and earlywith a very familiar pitcher of mine, with whom I’ve been absolutely dominant this year, so let’s see this strong success continue on this second-to-last-day in August…


Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - $66 for $55
Jarrod Parker vs Justin Masterson
UNDER 8.5

Cleveland was the sight of my best bet yesterday, and I’m staying in that same series for today. I’m not sure if this is going to be my best bet for today, as I have a few other games later as well, but this will certainly be one of my biggest ones on this Thursday, if not my biggest. In any case, it’s a rather interesting one, and I’d like someone to attempt to try and explain this logic to me:

Okay, yesterday’s pitching matchup between these two teams, in which I won the over, was Travis Blackley vs Corey Kluber. The line for that game was 8. So can someone please try and figure out how today’s pitching matchup, between two CLEAR SUPERIOR PITCHERS, is 8.5? Listen, I’ve been studying this stuff awhile now - every single day and night, that is, for hours at a time, over the past two years - and I don’t recall seeing such a huge obvious discrepancy in back-to-back games. Think about it: Blackley is obviously not better than teammate Jarrod Parker, who has been fantastic this year. And also in obvious fashion, there’s no way freaking Corey Kluber, the scrub that he is who once again cashed me an over, is on the same level as 2011 Cy Young candidate Justin Masterson, who, despite his inconsistency this year, is still having a far superior season compared to the youngster Kluber. I mean, is this a rare case of Vegas not paying attention to their own details? There’s something very fishy about that because usually they’re spot-on with just about everything. I suppose this is one of the rare instances where they just didn’t realize it, at least at first, because now I see the line has indeed fallen to 8. Still, it shouldn’t be labeled with the same total as yesterday’s far lesser-talented pitching affair.

Anyway, with that head-spinning logic put aside, let’s break down what we have here. As I alluded to in the intro paragraph of today’s article, I’ve been nearly flawless with Masterson this season (I’m pretty sure 7-1; won’t officially know until the end of the year when I do my full stat breakdown. You can verify by looking up “Masterson” through the search engine and attaching my name to it), despite his clear inconsistencies. Even so, there are times when he can pump out a real, real quality start as if it was 2011 again, and I believe this afternoon will be one of those instances. While the A’s did knock him around for seven runs only 11 days ago (Against today’s counterpart, Jarrod Parker, actually. I had the under in that game, remember), that was set in Oakland, unlike today, where Masterson will be pitching at home in Progressive Field, where he is significantly better. In fact, his ERA at home (3.14 in 14 starts) is basically HALF of what it is on the road (6.48 in 13 starts), with a sizable difference in WHIP as well. Furthermore, Masterson is coming off one of his finer starts as of late, when he contained the Yankees to one run over six-plus innings, so the confidence factor should certainly be in our favor as it pertains to the Indians’ ace. On the other side of the equation, there is Jarrod Parker, who has just been absolutely terrific this year in his rookie season with Oakland. Like Masterson, he also faced his opponent for today very recently, and unlike Masterson, he fared very well, shutting the Indians out over eight brilliant innings, allowing just seven baserunners in the process. Parker has been mostly consistent this year, and given the Indians’ well-documented struggles as of late, I expect the A’s AL Rookie of the Year candidate (Well, by that I mean Mike Trout’s closest competitor for the award) to continue his marvelous season with another quality outing this afternoon. Even with the line currently set at 8, the under is still a nice bet to kick your Thursday off.


Other 8/30 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking
Blake Beavan vs Brian Duensing UNDER 9 - $33 for $30
One of my main rules of over/unders isto not let the line dictate your opinion on any given game, nor to let it be the main reason in making a wager, but this is one of the few exceptions. My under vibe for this pitching matchup wasn’t necessarily a strong one, but I said to myself before I looked at the lines that if it was 9, I was going to roll with it, and thus, here I am taking this game. Blake Beavan, as all of you know, is one of my top five favorite pitchers in baseball and was actually my No. 1 sleeper coming into 2012. Since being recalled from a brief minor league stop (Which wasn’t his fault, remember. You try getting hit by a line-drive and see if you can pitch the same exact way right after), Beavan has been nothing short of excellent, as he’s rolling with confidence. When a young pitcher on the rise is cruising along the way he has, it just snowballs and continues, due to the fun he’s having and increased sense of urgency he’s gaining. Brian Duensing will be the tough factor in all of this, but he’s capable of having a fine start, and with the line at 9, there’s even room for error. Personally, I think he can be okay, which is all we’ll need as he’s matched up against Blake Beavan’s greatness.


**Will DEFINITELY Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**

Two additional things about my Parker vs Masterson UNDER:

1. The line has jumped all the way down to 7.5 now, which is very, very rare in such a short timespan, even for games at noon. Nobody in the country studies baseball over/unders more than I do, and I can assure you that it rarely happens where the line for a game changes by a FULL RUN overnight. That's huge. However...

2. PAUL EMMEL, according to the MLB.com Gameday section for this contest, is set to calls the balls and strikes behind the plate. Luckily, his incredible 22-1 record for the over recently came to an end, but still, his track record is more distinct than any other umpire in the league (Although I WOULD love to know what the unders record is for my BOY DJ Reyburn. Love him). In any case, perhaps my patented Law of Averages is starting to kick in as it pertains to Mr. Emmel. We shall see...

My apologies on that ugly Parker vs Masterson loss, but hey, I'm allowed one, given my scorching month, right? Anyway, my best bet tonight is Vogelsong vs Lyles UNDER 8, which I'll have a full write-up for a little later so be on the look out for that one.

Well, should have won most of my money back from that Parker/Masterson loss, but instead received a garbage push in my Beavan vs Duensing under, thanks to bullshit unearned runs against the Twins and an unlikely collapse from the hottest young reliever in baseball, Stephen Pryor, in the bottom of the 8th with two outs when the score was 5-2, the under being comfortably on pace despite the unpredictable unearned runs from earlier. Could not have been anymore 100-percent right about my boy and No. 1 sleeper Blake Beavan (7 IP, 5 H, 2 R), as usual, and of course I'm not rewarded.

No worries, though. Like I said, I'll have my write-up for my best bet Vogelsong vs Lyles UNDER 8 up in a bit, so that's something to look forward to, with maybe another over/under as well. This day can still be salvaged - I haven't had a losing day in almost two weeks and I plan to continue that streak. Check back soon.

Close to taking but I RECOMMEND Garcia vs Jackson OVER 8

And now here's my write-up for tonight's best bet...


San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros (Best Bet) - $71 for $65
Ryan Vogelsong vs Jordan Lyles
UNDER 8

Back to Houston I go for a best bet, which is what I did Tuesday night with my biggest bet in months when I was very successful in my Matt Cain vs Bud Norris under. In addition, I was spot-on in recommending the over in game two of this series last night, so hopefully I can make it a perfect three-for-three - I am an Astros expert, after all. Here we have a pitching matchup that I don’t feel as much as the Cain/Norris one, but there’s still some potential here, and let’s start with the clear, more dependable pitcher in Ryan Vogelsong, who is actually reeling a bit. In fact, for the first time since April, Vogelsong has allowed three runs or more in back-to-back outings. Not only that, for the first time in his two years since returning to the Major Leagues, Vogelsong has surrendered three runs or more in three consecutive starts, which actually goes to show what a model of consistency the Giants’ right-hander has become. Luckily, not only does the Lawof Averages come knocking on the door as it pertains to that little nugget of information, it appears that based on what he’s saying, Vogelsong himself suggests he’s about to get back into his groove, citing “mechanical adjustments” and altering his motion and direction towards home plate when he rears back and throws. That all being said, if this turns out to be a start that Vogelsong does not take for granted, and puts extra focus on, then he should be in top form against the Astros’ collection of no-name, dead-bat hitters.

Then there is young Jordan Lyles, who is much better than his 2012 numbers (3-10, 5.47 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) indicate. He’s shown, at times, that he can be a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, and that sentiment certainly resurfaced in his most recent effort, when he picked up his first win in months, going six strong against the Mets and holding them to one run and three hits. As I’ve detailed a couple of times before, Lyles does not have the potential or the talent that fellow Astros, and top "Cat Guys," Bud Norris and Lucas Harrell have, but he does have something that has led me to believe he can stick at the big-league level for years to come. He’s shown it in flashes this year, and I think based on his last start, with his confidence as high as it’s been since his solid June when he was more consistent, Lyles canc ontinue to exhibit that, especially maybe tonight at home where he’s a full TWO-AND-A-HALF RUNS better (4.15 ERA at home versus an ugly 6.88 ERA on the road). The line being firmly at 8 gives us a little wiggle room as well, in case one of these starters falters, but I don’t really anticipate that. I expect a lower-scoring contest that should secure the under, or at the very least, push, with our money still intact - not a bad outcome either way. Most importantly, we need Vogelsong to give up less than three runs, and that's something I really believe is very likely to occur.

My apologies on the 0-2-1 day... my first 0-fer since August 1st actually and my first losing day in almost two weeks. It's a shame Ryan Vogelsong still hasn't returned to normal form, although he was getting stronger as the game went on (Those four runs he allowed came early on), while Jordan Lyles looked terrific in the first four innings, before an unfortunate double play ball off the bat of Vogelsong squirted through short because of a hit-and-run (Who does that with the pitcher up?) that caused shortstop Tyler Greene to cover second, and thus, he just missed nabbing that ball, which would have been two and prevented that big inning for San Fran, which in turn, completely changed the whole game. Still, though, no excuses. It is what it is.

These days are unavoidable when you take no days off, even when you study every single starting pitcher as much as I do every single day and night. It's been awhile, and that's the mindset I'll have approaching this weekend - it's human nature to have an off performance. The key is to not let them snowball, which has been a weakness for me at times this year because I'm so mentally-oriented more than anything (Much like a CJ Wilson or a Ricky Romero; no, I'm actually not a southpaw but we have similar perfectionist-type mentalities that let scenarios dictate how we perform in the ensuing moments. At the same time, we can be in a complete roll when in our groove).

Tomorrow will be a test for me. Just have to put this Thursday, which has usually been one of my more consistent days of the week this year, behind me and move on. Sounds simple but for people like me with such an intense mindset who overthink and overanalyze every little detail, it's really not.