2012 MLB O/U Record: 305-278-35, -$1,244 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks,obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Unfortunately, it’s the final day in August, a month that has treated me extremely, extremely well both this year and last, at least in terms of my beloved MLB Over/Unders. Heading into this last day, I’m 52-34-7 for the month (Including a TEN-GAME WIN STREAK at one point), even despite last night’s disappointing 0-2-1 performance. As a result, I really want to end August on a strong note, especially as we head into the final month of the 2012 season (Wow, can’t believe the light is at the end of thetunnel)…
Madison Bumgarner vs Chris Volstad UNDER 10 - $28 for $25
I was debating whether or not I was going to take this under all morning, and then when I saw the line went up to 10 only several minutes ago, I was solid immediately, which is why this brief write-up is being posted shortly before gametime. In any case, here's the bottom line: First off, I actually think the Cubs are a solid ML (+170) play, as while that's not my department, I would like to believe that the Giants offense is going to struggle today (And they'll be without Pablo Sandoval, who was heating up last night), as they finished up at around 11:30 EST last night, and aside from the late flight, they're also drained! After all, they actually played a very, very competitive series with Houston, which required them to make thrilling late comebacks in two of the three contests. Furthermore, they're going up against a very, very relieved pitcher in Chris Volstad, who FINALLY got off the schnide with his first win in 24 STARTS. In other words, now that the monkey is off his back, Volstad can be more relaxed and at ease, which gives him more freedom on the mound, and when that's the case, he can be a much more dangerous pitcher, as we saw flashes off during his stint in Florida. How do I know he'll be locked in mentally? Well, as I wrote about a few weeks ago, he saw a sports psychologist to help him deal with his long losing streak, and now that that's over with, I would not be surprised to see him go through a strong stretch to wrap up his season. As for Madison Bumgarner, well, he's coming off a start in which he allowed a season-high four walks, which is very unlike him, so it's more likely he'll be more focused than usual in trying to atone for that.
Perhaps most importantly, the line is pretty high. Yes, that has everything to do with Wrigley Field's legendary winds, which are swirling out significantly to right field today, but that actually works in our favor of drawing the high line. One, Volstad is a well-documented GROUNDBALL pitcher, thus meaning those winds will have little effect on his outlook. Secondly, Bumgarner doesn't even give up many homeruns, or deep flyballs, to begin with, so it's hard to envision that really putting a huge potential dent into his performance today. The main thing I'm concerned with is that since the Giants' offense will be incredibly tired (As mentioned, they didn't arrive till late-last night, so figure they got little sleep and woke up around 10ish?), and I hope that same holdover doesn't apply to Mr. Bumgarner as well. We shall see, but I fully expect their offense to be sluggish, and if we know the inferior pitcher in this matchup more than likely has a good outlook, then the under's a good bet.
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Unfortunately, it’s the final day in August, a month that has treated me extremely, extremely well both this year and last, at least in terms of my beloved MLB Over/Unders. Heading into this last day, I’m 52-34-7 for the month (Including a TEN-GAME WIN STREAK at one point), even despite last night’s disappointing 0-2-1 performance. As a result, I really want to end August on a strong note, especially as we head into the final month of the 2012 season (Wow, can’t believe the light is at the end of thetunnel)…
Madison Bumgarner vs Chris Volstad UNDER 10 - $28 for $25
I was debating whether or not I was going to take this under all morning, and then when I saw the line went up to 10 only several minutes ago, I was solid immediately, which is why this brief write-up is being posted shortly before gametime. In any case, here's the bottom line: First off, I actually think the Cubs are a solid ML (+170) play, as while that's not my department, I would like to believe that the Giants offense is going to struggle today (And they'll be without Pablo Sandoval, who was heating up last night), as they finished up at around 11:30 EST last night, and aside from the late flight, they're also drained! After all, they actually played a very, very competitive series with Houston, which required them to make thrilling late comebacks in two of the three contests. Furthermore, they're going up against a very, very relieved pitcher in Chris Volstad, who FINALLY got off the schnide with his first win in 24 STARTS. In other words, now that the monkey is off his back, Volstad can be more relaxed and at ease, which gives him more freedom on the mound, and when that's the case, he can be a much more dangerous pitcher, as we saw flashes off during his stint in Florida. How do I know he'll be locked in mentally? Well, as I wrote about a few weeks ago, he saw a sports psychologist to help him deal with his long losing streak, and now that that's over with, I would not be surprised to see him go through a strong stretch to wrap up his season. As for Madison Bumgarner, well, he's coming off a start in which he allowed a season-high four walks, which is very unlike him, so it's more likely he'll be more focused than usual in trying to atone for that.
Perhaps most importantly, the line is pretty high. Yes, that has everything to do with Wrigley Field's legendary winds, which are swirling out significantly to right field today, but that actually works in our favor of drawing the high line. One, Volstad is a well-documented GROUNDBALL pitcher, thus meaning those winds will have little effect on his outlook. Secondly, Bumgarner doesn't even give up many homeruns, or deep flyballs, to begin with, so it's hard to envision that really putting a huge potential dent into his performance today. The main thing I'm concerned with is that since the Giants' offense will be incredibly tired (As mentioned, they didn't arrive till late-last night, so figure they got little sleep and woke up around 10ish?), and I hope that same holdover doesn't apply to Mr. Bumgarner as well. We shall see, but I fully expect their offense to be sluggish, and if we know the inferior pitcher in this matchup more than likely has a good outlook, then the under's a good bet.
