2012 MLB O/U Record: 310-282-36, -$1,224 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, nice 5-3 start to September, although it actually should’ve been better, as two of those “losses” were by a half-run (Adding to my country-leading total in that department), one caused directly by a BLOWN call at home plate (If you need a blown call by the umpire to win an over, you were wrong on the bet), and one because of a garbage line - an over/under should not be 10.5 with a world-class pitcher like Edinson Volquez and a pitcher back on the rise like Jhoulys Chacin. But whatever, time to just focus on the next day, that being the second slate of this final month of the baseball regular season, so let’s see what this Sunday has to offer…
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (Best Bet)
David Price vs Ricky Romero
UNDER
Okay, listen up, because this is an under that has a lot of potential. First off, you have David Price, arguably the most consistent starter in ALL of baseball this year. In fact, he would even be my choice for the American League Cy Young, and that’s a statement coming from someone who has studied starting pitchers literally every single day this entire season (Not to mention last season as well). It’s just remarkable how steadily excellent Price has been this whole year. There’s a catch, though: For the first time since June 13, the left-hander is coming off his first non-quality start, after Texas pelted him for six runs and ten hits in just four innings (Which I even predicted, by the way, when recommending the over of that game). Does this mean Price will be more focused than usual heading into this start, to atone for his previous mishap? I’d strongly like to believe so, but it’s such an unusual circumstance for Price that it’s hard to truly correctly predict that variable because there’s such little precedent for it in 2012. At the very least, Price is facing a team he absolutely owns (11-2, 2.26 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in his career versus Toronto) in a park where he flourishes, that being the Rogers Centre (5-0, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), and the best part is that this is probably the most depleted Blue Jays line-up he’s faced, given all their significant injuries. But here’s the most comforting piece of supporting evidence in depending on Price: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay’s usually wise and insightful manager, went on record of saying, “I really believe he’s going to be really good [on Sunday].” Yes, sometimes managers just say stuff like that, but you can read between the lines with his extra use of the word “really,” and the fact that you can just picture him believing that with true confidence. And since Maddon is one of smartest managers out there with an incredible intuition, you can pretty much take his commentary to the bank - literally.
While Price is obviously the more dependable pitcher as it pertains to this under - hey, Price is pretty much always the more dependable pitcher in any matchup when it comes to taking an under - I actually feel just as comfortable with his counterpart today, that being fellow lefty Ricky Romero. I’ve talked about Romero many times this year,and with good reason. See, when you break down pitchers every single day, you learn a lot about them; not just their stats and tendencies, but also their psychology and human nature. And as I’ve mentioned a few times before, Romero actually reminds me, mentally, a lot of myself - a perfectionist who can’t stand losing or struggling, even if it’s over a small period of time, and someone who is always working hard to stay on track. In addition, also like myself, he’s the type of person where if something doesn’t go his way, even if it’s out of his control, he’ll let the in-game situation get into his head easily and, unfortunately, potentially dictate how he does the rest of the way. In other words, he’s completely prone to unraveling in multiple instances, as we’ve seen countless times throughout his career. At the same time, though, when he’s rolling and in a groove, Romerois as good as anybody out there, which is how he gained the tag of being a legitimate ace (In my opinion), even while on a losing team in the toughest division in baseball. This year, not so much, but the thing to love about Toronto’s southpaw is that even in this “nightmarish season” (Romero’s words) of his, he is still very dedicated and committed to righting the ship. I readhis quotes every five days and it amazes me how passionate he is to his craft. After his last start at Yankee Stadium, a very successful one (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB,6 K) in which I had the under, I feel that’s a good sign of Romero retaining his old form, and he’s certainly not going to be content after that outing. “I felt aggressive, I definitely did,” he said following his most recent start. “I felt like I was out there and I put everything away that I’ve worked on and let it come out naturally. I’m just going to build off this.” That’s another similarity I have with Ricky Romero, in that we are both much, much better in the things we do when we’re more natural and aggressive with it, rather than pressing and second-guessing, which is how Romero’s season snowballed the wayit has. Luckily after a good start heading into September, that should allow him to be more natural with his delivery and throwing the ball, allowing him tobe the Ricky Romero that we grew so accustomed to over recent years. It also helps that the split stats throughout his career indicate Ricky has always been better during the day and at home, which is the exact scenario we have him in today, so hopefully this adds up to a consecutive quality outing for him, as he seeks to beat the best pitcher in the American League. Should be an intriguing matchup that I can’t see going beyond 5-3.
Other 9/2 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Wade Miley vs Chris Capuano OVER 7 - Price TBD
It’s a battle of two lefties, one about to potentially imitate the other’s season, perhaps. Early on, Chris Capuano wasa real break-out story from the National League, possessing a 9-3 record with an outstanding 2.62 ERA in early-July. But, the Law of Averages caught up to him, since he actually can be hittable, hence why his ERA has jumped up a full run, while going 2-7 since then. The Law of Averages has not struck Wade Miley, a fellow not-so-tough-to-hit southpaw, who enters this affair at 14-9 with a 2.85 ERA, but it’s bound to sooner than later. Don’t get me wrong, Miley is a lock for National League Rookie of the Year, and he’s going to stick towards the top of a pitching staff for several years, but I’ve watched him a few times and I don’t think he’s that good, as in “ace quality.” Considering the Dodgers have significantly beefed up their lineup,and the fact that they need to start playing better baseball right away, I think they’ll at least scratch across a few runs, which is all we might need. Two good offenses here at Chavez Ravine on a Sunday afternoon.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, nice 5-3 start to September, although it actually should’ve been better, as two of those “losses” were by a half-run (Adding to my country-leading total in that department), one caused directly by a BLOWN call at home plate (If you need a blown call by the umpire to win an over, you were wrong on the bet), and one because of a garbage line - an over/under should not be 10.5 with a world-class pitcher like Edinson Volquez and a pitcher back on the rise like Jhoulys Chacin. But whatever, time to just focus on the next day, that being the second slate of this final month of the baseball regular season, so let’s see what this Sunday has to offer…
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (Best Bet)
David Price vs Ricky Romero
UNDER
Okay, listen up, because this is an under that has a lot of potential. First off, you have David Price, arguably the most consistent starter in ALL of baseball this year. In fact, he would even be my choice for the American League Cy Young, and that’s a statement coming from someone who has studied starting pitchers literally every single day this entire season (Not to mention last season as well). It’s just remarkable how steadily excellent Price has been this whole year. There’s a catch, though: For the first time since June 13, the left-hander is coming off his first non-quality start, after Texas pelted him for six runs and ten hits in just four innings (Which I even predicted, by the way, when recommending the over of that game). Does this mean Price will be more focused than usual heading into this start, to atone for his previous mishap? I’d strongly like to believe so, but it’s such an unusual circumstance for Price that it’s hard to truly correctly predict that variable because there’s such little precedent for it in 2012. At the very least, Price is facing a team he absolutely owns (11-2, 2.26 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in his career versus Toronto) in a park where he flourishes, that being the Rogers Centre (5-0, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), and the best part is that this is probably the most depleted Blue Jays line-up he’s faced, given all their significant injuries. But here’s the most comforting piece of supporting evidence in depending on Price: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay’s usually wise and insightful manager, went on record of saying, “I really believe he’s going to be really good [on Sunday].” Yes, sometimes managers just say stuff like that, but you can read between the lines with his extra use of the word “really,” and the fact that you can just picture him believing that with true confidence. And since Maddon is one of smartest managers out there with an incredible intuition, you can pretty much take his commentary to the bank - literally.
While Price is obviously the more dependable pitcher as it pertains to this under - hey, Price is pretty much always the more dependable pitcher in any matchup when it comes to taking an under - I actually feel just as comfortable with his counterpart today, that being fellow lefty Ricky Romero. I’ve talked about Romero many times this year,and with good reason. See, when you break down pitchers every single day, you learn a lot about them; not just their stats and tendencies, but also their psychology and human nature. And as I’ve mentioned a few times before, Romero actually reminds me, mentally, a lot of myself - a perfectionist who can’t stand losing or struggling, even if it’s over a small period of time, and someone who is always working hard to stay on track. In addition, also like myself, he’s the type of person where if something doesn’t go his way, even if it’s out of his control, he’ll let the in-game situation get into his head easily and, unfortunately, potentially dictate how he does the rest of the way. In other words, he’s completely prone to unraveling in multiple instances, as we’ve seen countless times throughout his career. At the same time, though, when he’s rolling and in a groove, Romerois as good as anybody out there, which is how he gained the tag of being a legitimate ace (In my opinion), even while on a losing team in the toughest division in baseball. This year, not so much, but the thing to love about Toronto’s southpaw is that even in this “nightmarish season” (Romero’s words) of his, he is still very dedicated and committed to righting the ship. I readhis quotes every five days and it amazes me how passionate he is to his craft. After his last start at Yankee Stadium, a very successful one (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB,6 K) in which I had the under, I feel that’s a good sign of Romero retaining his old form, and he’s certainly not going to be content after that outing. “I felt aggressive, I definitely did,” he said following his most recent start. “I felt like I was out there and I put everything away that I’ve worked on and let it come out naturally. I’m just going to build off this.” That’s another similarity I have with Ricky Romero, in that we are both much, much better in the things we do when we’re more natural and aggressive with it, rather than pressing and second-guessing, which is how Romero’s season snowballed the wayit has. Luckily after a good start heading into September, that should allow him to be more natural with his delivery and throwing the ball, allowing him tobe the Ricky Romero that we grew so accustomed to over recent years. It also helps that the split stats throughout his career indicate Ricky has always been better during the day and at home, which is the exact scenario we have him in today, so hopefully this adds up to a consecutive quality outing for him, as he seeks to beat the best pitcher in the American League. Should be an intriguing matchup that I can’t see going beyond 5-3.
Other 9/2 MLB Over/Unders I’m Taking:
Wade Miley vs Chris Capuano OVER 7 - Price TBD
It’s a battle of two lefties, one about to potentially imitate the other’s season, perhaps. Early on, Chris Capuano wasa real break-out story from the National League, possessing a 9-3 record with an outstanding 2.62 ERA in early-July. But, the Law of Averages caught up to him, since he actually can be hittable, hence why his ERA has jumped up a full run, while going 2-7 since then. The Law of Averages has not struck Wade Miley, a fellow not-so-tough-to-hit southpaw, who enters this affair at 14-9 with a 2.85 ERA, but it’s bound to sooner than later. Don’t get me wrong, Miley is a lock for National League Rookie of the Year, and he’s going to stick towards the top of a pitching staff for several years, but I’ve watched him a few times and I don’t think he’s that good, as in “ace quality.” Considering the Dodgers have significantly beefed up their lineup,and the fact that they need to start playing better baseball right away, I think they’ll at least scratch across a few runs, which is all we might need. Two good offenses here at Chavez Ravine on a Sunday afternoon.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
