The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 3, 2012 - YTD: 311-283-36

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2012MLB O/U Record: 311-283-36, - $1,248 (Was makingmuch bigger bets earlier in the year. I also undoubtedly lead the country inhalf-run/one-run losses)
2011MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Happy Labor Day, everyone. This is basically the glaring signal that fall (And football) is upon us, and more importantly, it serves as the point in time where this sentiment becomes painfully official: the baseball regular season is truly in the homestretch. Still can’t believe it. While holidays of all types are fun in real life, I believe they’re the opposite when it comes to sports betting, at least in baseball. Here’s why: One of the great things that draws me into baseball is the fact that it’s every single day, with very few days off sprinkled in-between. Thus, for six monthsin the year, just about every single baseball player - the ones that stay atthe highest level all year - is mired in a very particular routine, leading most games to have steady, consistent variables in a much easier mundane fashion. Well, on holidays, there’s a little bit of a different spin, as players could potentially be having different thoughts on their mind, especially the ones in meaningless contests, such as perhaps thinking about what they’re going to do with their friends/teammates on the holiday night, since everybody has a rare Monday night afternoon game today (Except for thetwo late games). Human Psychology 101. It’s just a day that potentially has no precedent and extra variables to worry about, which, in turn, could serve as another potential reason to cost a win. In any case, let’s examine what we have…


Tyler Chatwood vs Kris Medlen UNDER 7.5 - Price TBD
I’m actually probably going to waituntil right before gametime in terms of how much I’m going to wager on this game because I’m curious about the line movement. I really want to see if this goes up to 8 - which is where it SHOULD be - considering Tyler Chatwood is involved. I mean, I know better. I know Tyler Chatwood is actually a pretty good starting pitcher, as he showed at times last year while pitching a lot in the tough American League West, and I even gave you all a detailed analysis predicting he’d be good in a Rockies uniform right before his very first start in securing that under, despite his notable struggles in the minors this year. Well, he’s been alright up to this point, and as we march through the season’s final month, I think he’ll continue to be pretty good as he seeks to solidify his spot on the 2013 pitching staff. He’s shown he can stick in a Major League rotation for sometime, and I believe he’ll hang in here. It’s probably all we’ re going to need from him, considering he’s about to square off with *the* hottest pitcher in all of baseball right now, that being Kris Medlen. The Atlanta right-hander has been absolutely on fire pretty much this entire season (6-1, 1.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 74:18 K:BB ratio in 95 innings), although those numbers include his work out of the bullpen also. He’s been especially dazzling of late after being put into the starting rotation, owning an incredible scoreless streak spanning 28-plus innings! Thus, it’s hard to see him giving up more than a couple of runs, even against Colorado’s decent bats, making this a bit of an enticing under. Just wish it was 8.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 
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Damn, line didn't budge. Oh well. I'll settle for:

Chatwood vs Medlen UNDER 7.5 - $27 for $25

I do not, at all, recommend any type of big bet on a day like this because there's such little precedent on holidays, meaning there's only more variables in which you could lose. Speaking of recommending, I'd also recommend Samardzija vs Detwiler under (If you can get it at 8), Fiers vs Nolasco over 8, and Cloyd vs Lee over 8
 
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And I might also bite on the Jeff Locke under, since I was one of the very first few people to be on his bandwagon last year. Edgar Gonzalez randomly appearing with the Astros from Diamonback oblivion years ago makes it a real, real tough game to cap, however
 
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Well, I guess it's a reversal of fortune for The Cat, as that's the second time in three days where I had to really hold on and rally for an under, as in the case with Chatwood vs Medlen. However, before you think that, I'd guarantee that you would feel otherwise if you watched the game, as a good chunk of those runs in that game was from BS fielding errors, as even without one or two of them, it's a very different game. Tyler Chatwood, who I'm undefeated with this year after going 6-3-2 with him in 2011 over/unders, was much better than his final statline, which also doesn't account for a very, very odd hit ball by David Ross with two outs that scored two runs and actually turned Dexter Fowler around because it curved so much in the air. Never really seen anything like that, and if you watched the game, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

In any case, it's a win, and in this endeavor, that's all that matters, unfortunately - wins and losses. No 4 o'clock game for me today, as I like to avoid betting a decent amount on games on a holiday, but my BEST BET will be one of the two night games (Especially since they have the most normalcy to them; Games on Monday are almost always at night during the season)... and I'll announce that a bit later with my write-up. It will be at least twice as big as my afternoon game, which means it's worth checking out for the potential. Check back in a few hours
 
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Oh, and of course, I went 2-for-3 in my "Recommended, But Didn't Bet On" over/unders, as per usual. It's scary how I'm continually winning 60-percent of those, but that's a habit I don't want to get into of taking too many games. For those who are wise and take those picks, at least I'm making you guys money, if anything. Maybe I'll budge and start taking all of those games, even though it leads to a lack of discipline.
 
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And here it is, my best bet for today...


Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (Best Bet) - $75 for $60
Samuel Deduno vs Hector Santiago
OVER 9

I feel grateful to have gotten this one at 9 when the line first came out, but at the same time, I’m a little disappointed I didn’t put more on it. After Vegas quickly, and wisely, decided to shift the line up to 9.5 overnight, I thought about putting more on it, before deciding otherwise in realizing that one of the main visions I had for this game was 5-4. I mean, if you have no opportunity to get this over at 9 and can only get it at 9.5, I’d recommend it for a smaller-sized bet anyway because this is an over that has promise. First off, one of the starters is someone I’m undefeated with in over/unders thus far, that being rookie Samuel Deduno, who has actually looked pretty good. However, I think it’s a case of someone outpitching their talent in the early goings of their career, meaning some sort of regression is inevitable, in my opinion, before the end of the season, and what better spot for that to begin than a road affair against the always-slugging White Sox?

It’s not a good thing when a youngster like Deduno, who only has a handful of big-league starts to his belt, is the more experienced starter in a matchup that you’re betting. It’s even worse when the counterpart is someone who is making his first career Major League start - and this after making countless appearances out of the bullpen. In most cases like this, I’d just back off, but there’s something about Hector Santiago that has led me to believe he won’t be successful as a starter, at least at this point in time. No. 1, I wasn’t impressed with his work out of the bullpen unless his talents were used in a situation role, in which case he’s good, but that doesn’t simply translate into becoming a solid starter. Secondly, he’s a lefty about to face a team that is fourth in the American League in hitting versus southpaws, occurring in a park that tends to favor the batters. The Twins are an interesting team right now, sort of like those Ranger teams from years ago that had no pitching and we’re stacked on offense. I mean, Minnesota certainly isn’t stacked, but they do follow the mold a bit, lacking depth in the pitching department, but do have a number of individuals who can do damage at the plate. One of those guys, Ryan Doumit, is not in the lineup today when I’d rather have him in there, but there should be enough firepower to combat the potential onslaught brought upon by Chicago. Thus, this should be an enjoyable over bet to chomp your teeth into - after your burgers and hot dogs - on this Labor Dayevening.


Note: I also MAY take the Werner vs Blanton under... I love that it went up to 8, which would protect me in my most-anticipated outcome, that being 6-2, so I'll let you guys know whether or not I take it - probably depending on how this 7 o'clock game goes. But the fact that I have a vibe from it should be all you need to know in deciding to take this under, since I'm winning 60-percent of my "Recommended Games," including going 3-for-4 today... as usual.
 
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Oh boy. Twins get first and third with one out in the first, don't score. White Sox get second and third with one out in the first, don't score. Better not be one of these bullshit games when each lineup is locked in against Deduno and Santiago, respectively.
 

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