The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 4, 2012 - YTD: 312-284-36 (1,400+ words on Harvey vs Garcia & Lester vs Beavan)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 312-284-36, -$1,298 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

1-1 yesterday, which was a day that really pissed me off considering I was an outstanding 4-1 in my “Recommended Games, But Not Betting On,” which, unfortunately, is a trend that is still continuing in which I’m winning over 60-percent of those games… and I started that section in my column more than a month ago. Whatever. At least today, I have more of an action-packed card, so let’s see what The Cat has on this first Wednesday in September…


NewYork Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals (Best Bet) -$66 for $60
Matt Harvey vs Jamie Garcia
UNDER 8

This could be an under that we win with room to spare - it just hinges on each starting pitcher to throw like they usually do. That shouldn’t be much of a problem with Mets’ young phenom Matt Harvey, who has been terrific in his first big-league campaign, racking up five quality starts out of his seven total starts, although you could argue that one that wasn’t an official quality outing could easily be seen as such, considering it was his Major League debut back in late-July, in which he tossed five shutout innings. In other words, Harvey has been a true model of consistency, going at least five innings in every assignment. Based on watching this kid,and the hype that surrounded him upon his debut, it is much, much more likely that he’ll be a name that we hear for years when it comes to discussing upper-echelon National League starting pitchers, and I think his 2012 run will continue to roll along strong as this season winds down, providing the Mets with one of their few bright glimmers of hope heading into next season. When you study, analyze, and watch starting pitchers as much as I do, you know when someone is on the cusp of long-term excellence, and Harvey, without question, fits that mold. It’s just a matter of maintaining his consistency in this start, which he should do.

While it may not be as tricky getting a solid outing from the Mets’ right-hander, it certainly will be to do so from his counterpart tonight, that being the suddenly erratic Jamie Garcia. It’s kind of funny these two are facing each other, considering when Garcia was a rookie in 2010, he displayed the same admirable consistency as Harvey has this year over a similarly extensive period of time. At this point in time, however, Garcia seemingly wishes he could return to that form, as right now, he’s just been wildly inconsistent since coming back from a lengthy stint off the DL. He was actually fabulous in his first start back (8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 Ks on 8/19 vs PIT), but in his two starts proceeding that, he’s allowed ten runs in just over 11 innings. Yikes. In his defense, although it’s not a very strong one, those previous two starts coming into this one were on the road, whereas his successful return one was home at cozy Busch Stadium, where he’s always been better. In fact, over his career, there’s a discrepancy of more than twofull runs in his ERA when comparing his home (2.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and road (4.59 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) splits. That’s very, very distinct, and could be attributed to why Garcia has suddenly been struggling. Well, he’s back at home tonight, and considering he can’t really get worse than those two prior starts, you have to believe he gets back on track (Law of Averages?), especially drawing a favorable matchup against a lackluster offense like the Metropolitans. With the line being 8, that’s the final exclamation point we need, as we have room for error in case he falters or to evade an always potential Mets’ bullpen meltdown.


Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners - $46 for $40
Jon Lester vs Blake Beavan
UNDER 7

I dare someone to attempt to try andexplain the logic in this pitching matchup being a half-run lower than last night’s Buchholz vs Vargas affair. Come on, I dare you. Why? BECAUSE THERE IS NO LOGIC BEHIND IT, other than the fact that Vegas is clearly tipping their hand on this one, and in most times when I discover this, the side they favor ends up winning. I mean, this should never be your main reason to make a bet, but I’m pointing this out as supporting evidence, since I did have a solid under vibe on it as well. But let’s examine: First, there is Jon Lester, a good pitcher with a nice track record over his Major League career. However, in 2012, he’s arguably been one of the most disappointing pitchers, and on the most disappointing team to boot. Last night’s pitcher was Clay Buchholz, who had his struggles early on, but has really been terrific over the past couple of months, leading to the perfectly reasonable theory that he has been a better pitcher in 2012 than his teammate Lester (Although I would argue that Lester is still the superior pitcher overall). Okay, so that’s out of the way. Secondly, let’s look at the Mariners side of things, in which we have one of my top five favorite pitchers, and my No. 1 sleeper coming into 2012, Blake Beavan, set to toe the rubber for the home team. Last night, it was Jason Vargas, who, besides Felix Hernandez, has been Seattle’s best pitcher, and was even rewarded for his efforts with a Pitcher of the Month award for his remarkable July. As much as I love Beavan and think he will eventually be a better pitcher than Vargas, the truth is that, at this point in time, Vargas is the more proven and established big-league pitcher, meaning that he’s superior to Beavan (Although, like I said, I know Beavan will exceed Vargas in the near-future), just like Buchholzis over Lester. Let me try to make this clearer:

Clay Buchholz and Jason Vargas > Jon Lester and Blake Beavan
Vegas: Buchholz vs Vargas = Line of 7.5 in pitcher’s park Safeco Field
Vegas: Lester vs Beavan = Line of 7 in pitcher’s park Safeco Field (With extra -130 juice on the under as of this writing!)

That, my RX readers and friends, is very, very telling. Like I said, reading into Vegas’ theories shouldn’t be areason to make a bet, but I’m simply stating it as my supporting evidence for why I like this pitching matchup. Now let’s go over the starting pitchers, which is ALWAYS the most important factor in determining what side to take. Blake Beavan, as all of you should know by now, is someone I’ve invested A LOT into mentally and emotionally, since I pegged him as my main breakout player, and I’ve continued to stand by his side even after his ugly beginning to the season (Which, remember, wasn’t his fault because he was hit by a lined-rive in a game earlier this year so it affected him mentally). Since being recalled, Beavan has excelled significantly, as I predicted, going 6-2 in his nine starts back with a nice 3.90 ERA. Therefore, my opinions are Beavan are valid, as the guy is obviously legitimate and, in my view, it is inevitable that he becomes a top consistent starter for many years in Seattle. Tonight’s start should only continue to press that belief. Then there is his opponent tonight, Jon Lester, who has seemingly been heading in the opposite direction, as evident in his uncharacteristic 5.01 ERA. In fact, it’s so unusual of him that he hasn’t even had an ERA above 3.50 since… 2007. Interesting, right? Well, that is something we have in our favor, as being the final month of the season, you can kind of try and plot out where a guy’s final stats are going to be. In this case, with Lester, I don’t think he’s going to end up with an ERA of over 5 - just no way. I’ve watched him a few times this year and he’s still got most of his talent that led him to success in the first place. Therefore, he has to bring that ERA down at some point before 2012 concludes, and this looks like a good spot for it in this Tuesday night Seattle setting. I mean, he’s shown signs of it recently also, having gone seven or more innings in his last three starts,which is very encouraging. He’s shown his dominant side at times this year, which means it’s still there, and considering the Mariners are third-to-last in the American League in hitting against lefties (.238), it seems like a good spot for the Red Sox’ southpaw. I just wish the line was higher like it should be (I was really hoping for 8, actually), but given where Vegas has set it, it appears they’re clearly trying to bait people in the opposite direction, based on Beavan's and Lester's relatively high ERAs for the season. We’re not even close to falling for it.


Other9/4 MLB Over/Under Bets:
Kyle Kendrick vs Mat Latos OVER 8 - $29 for $25
Jordan Lyles vs Wandy Rodriguez UNDER 8 - $23 for $20 (Time for Lyles to improve his post-3rd-inning numbers already)
Scott Diamond vs Jose Quintana OVER 9 - $23 for $20


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 

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Think I'm gonna go heavy on the Pitt under. Being a Wandy fan,...that guy is all biz no matter what goes on/where he is/winning or losing.
 
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Think I'm gonna go heavy on the Pitt under. Being a Wandy fan,...that guy is all biz no matter what goes on/where he is/winning or losing.

I've always liked Wandy, and will forever be indebted to him for having his breakout year in 2009 (My biggest bet of all-time, still to this day, was the '09 Astros over 73 wins, doing so by one game), but ever since going to Pittsburgh, I feel like I've lost a little bit of a beat with him. He was so marvelously consistent with Houston in each of these past few years, but now, I'm not as sure. He was fantastic in his last start (In a rare, high-pressure ESPN game for the Pirates, no less) so I'd like to believe he's back on his normal path. However, it could be Jordan Lyles who carries that under so don't be surprised if it's he who helps secure it more than Wandy
 
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Also in Wandy's favor, the Astros are BY FAR the worst team against southpaws (.208 batting average) so that should certainly help
 
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Also from the 7 o'clock slate, I recommend, although not betting, Masterson vs Porcello under 9.5, Marcum vs LeBlanc under 8.5, and Britton vs Villanueva over 8.5... winning over 60-percent of these so small wagers are recommended at least
 
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Also from the 7 o'clock slate, I recommend, although not betting, Masterson vs Porcello under 9.5, Marcum vs LeBlanc under 8.5, and Britton vs Villanueva over 8.5... winning over 60-percent of these so small wagers are recommended at least

Andddd, as usual, I go 2-for-3 in the "Recommended Games, But Not Betting On" portion of my column, which is so goddamn frustrating because it's happening, as I point out every single goddamn day, I'm winning 60-percent of these. Kudos to those of you who take these games - at least some of you are making money off those over/unders.
 
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Good night thus far, hoping to cap it off with yet nother Blake Beavan under victory... like I always say, nobody in the country knows Blake Beavan better than I do, and that's not even an exaggeration, given the tens of thousands of words of precise analysis I've offered up on him this year. It might be true that I've written more about him on these forums than certain Mariners beat writers! Would be interesting to check that out.

Nice best bet win in that Harvey vs Garcia matchup - it was everything that I expected, with Jamie Garcia easily getting back on track in his favorite setting - home at cozy Busch Stadium. Those DISTINCT split stats over his career are wayyy too large to ignore, so for those who weren't aware of that beforehand, try to remember that when you think about betting on one of his starts, whether it be in the over/under variety or even ML/RL.

That push in Lyles vs Rodriguez under was garbage. Absolute Fucking Garbage. If you watched the game, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Two of those fucking runs came with two outs on a DROPPED INFIELD POPUP BY TYLER GREENE, because Brandon Laird, making his first start for the Astros, bumped into him even though it was clearly Greene's ball at short. Just a goddamn shame to be screwed out of a win like that, but I won't fret over it too much because A)It didn't lead to a loss and B)It wasn't for much money anyway. However, I take so much pride in my dear over/unders that I seriously, as you guys can tell by now, take every game personally, and that's a fucking game I had won. Oh well, a "push" is the final result, and whoever had the over caught a real, real lucky break.

Now let's keep it going Blake Beavan! As I've preached throughout this entire season, even when he was sent down, I always stuck by his side in claiming him to be my No. 1 2012 sleeper, and if he wasn't hit by that line-drive in that start against Doug Fister (In which I won the under, of course) back in April, which killed him mentally and DIRECTLY caused him to struggle in the weeks after, he'd probably have 16-17 wins right now with a 3.60 ERA.
 

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