The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 5, 2012 - YTD: 314-285-38

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 314-285-38, -$1,247 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Very odd 2-1-2 day yesterday, in which I actually *should* have been 3-1-1 or 4-1, considering my absolute garbage push in Lyles vs Rodriguez under was DIRECTLY caused by a dropped infield pop-up with two outs, which had two runs score on that exact play. I mean… if you need a fluke break like that to avoid a loss, you obviously made the wrong bet, meaning I was screwed out of a win, but at least it didn’t lead to an L. As for Beavan vs Lester under, I talked in great, longgg detail about this yesterday.Vegas was obviously feeling the under as well (Not that this was my main reason for taking the game. After all, nobody on this earth loves Blake Beavan more than I do), hence why they stuck with the unexpected line of 7 all day and night, especially since the prior night’s matchup in that series, Buchholz vs Vargas, consisted of two pitchers who have been clearly better in 2012, yet drew a line of 7.5! How does that make any logical freaking sense? So, in that instance, Vegas fucking screwed me out of a win when that game absolutely should have been 7.5 or 8, PERIOD. But whatever, it’s a push, and it’s a day where I was up, so that’s always the important thing in the end. Speaking of being up, I feel very, very good about doing so once again here today, so let’s take a look at what this Wednesday has to offer…


Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox - $55 for $50
PJ Walters vs Jake Peavy
UNDER 9

Hey look, it’s the return of PJ Walters! To 99-percent of people out there, this isn’t really significant at all, and that’s completely understandable, but considering I’m undefeated in over/unders with him this year, combined with the fact that I had a distinct under vibe on this matchup, well, then maybe this is significant (Warning: I was also undefeated with Samuel Deduno over/unders before that over loss on Monday night). I mean, Walters certainly isn’t a great pitcher by any means - he’s never really showed it throughout his journeyman career - but that doesn’t mean he can’t be good because he certainly was when he was first called up by Minnesota a few months ago. In fact, Walters possessed an impressive 2.96 ERA in his first four starts, while going 2-1. In his final three starts, however, his ERA was north of 12, while failing to record a win. So, in essence, it’s been mostly a mixed bag with Walters, much like throughout his days in St. Louis, but as we saw this year, it appears Walters is at his best when he’s first getting into his groove, which is what he’ll be aiming to do in Chicago on this Wednesday afternoon. The Twins’ right-hander wasn’t particularly good during his eight rehab starts in Triple-A (4.01 ERA), but time in and time out, we see veterans put up mediocre numbers as they work back towards the major leagues because mentally, they’ve matched up against the best competition in the world over an extensive period of time, as in the case with Walters, and it’s just hard to exhibit that same kind of effort and sense of urgency against anything lower (Ex. Jeff Suppan earlier this year, after having a 10+ ERA in Triple-A, shutting out the Brewers over 5+ innings in his first start back with San Diego, remember). Thus, I feel that once Walters toes the big-league rubber for the first time since early-June, he’ll feel comfortable again, just as he was towards the end of his rehab assignments, in which he even said he had finally knocked the rust off and was “getting back into the swing of things.” Comfort is so, so crucial in maintaining a positive mindset as a starter, and I think he’s re-achieved that.

All that for PJ Freaking Walters, but it won’t really be necessary for Jake Peavy. First off, let me just say that out of most established pitchers in baseball today, Peavy is actually probably one of my weakest ones, just because of the fact that I think I’ve lost my beat on himever since he left San Diego and had that surgery. He actually exceeded any expectations I had for him this year, in going 9-10 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, while punching out 159 batters in 181 innings (Good for him to be on the verge of reaching 200 innings, given his recent injury issues). Luckily for us, we pretty much have him at his best, or at least I hope we do, since that’s what all of his split stats indicate: Peavy’s been slightly better at home, a full-run better in night games compared to during the day, and perhaps most importantly, he’s facing a team he seemingly has conquered, holding the Twinnies to five earned runs in three starts this year spanning 20 innings, while striking out 21. Yes, they just put up 18 runs on the scoreboard last night, but in a day game following a night performance like that, it’s always possible the team doing the slugging gets a sense of content and becomes lackadaisical at the plate, and against an ace like Peavy, you can’t afford that at all. The line set at 9 also gives us some room for error, which is another item to dig concerning this under.


Note: This is NOT my best bet, although it’s a good one anyway, given the solid amount I put on it. My best bet tonight will be one of the 7 o’clock games… which I’ll release later on with my write-up. And there’s a lot of potential that comes along with it.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don’t bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff several hours every single day and night**
 
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Uh, correction: We don't actually have Jake Peavy in his best possible setting, since this is a daytime game (He's a full-run better at night), but that's just a minor glitch. Nothing to fret about.
 

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4 of last 5 with this home plate ump have stayed under the total. More good news for you.
 
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4 of last 5 with this home plate ump have stayed under the total. More good news for you.

With Andy Fletcher?? Wow that would surprise me because he was squeezing the hell out of PJ Walters early, most notably on two of his pitches against Youk in the first inning that were clear strikes, which led to a walk and ultimately that grand slam from Rios.
 
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Nice solid win to start the day. My domination with PJ Walters over/unders continues. Meanwhile, my best bet, along with its write-up, will be up soon
 

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Hey man thanks for the insight.. Any picks for 7? Getting close to game time.. Thanks
 
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Thought I could get a write-up in but I had less time than I thought. Anyway, here's my insight:

Chris Volstad vs Gio Gonzalez UNDER 7.5 - $66 for $60
Believe me, I WANT to put a lot more on this game, but at 7.5, I'm not fucking giving in. First of all, this is CHRIS VOLSTAD pitching on the ROAD against the BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL... why the hell is this game not 8 like it should be? Well, just as I pointed out in last night's under-lined Lester vs Beavan matchup, it's because Vegas is trying to bait people into the over. Don't think that's my main reason for making this bet, which is my best bet actually, as it also has a lot to do with Volstad's re-emergence. I've detailed before how he recent saw a sports psychologist during his ridiculously long losing streak, and it's done wonders for him. Now that he's actually on a two-game win streak, he has more freedom to pitch like the Chris Volstad of old - the one that was really solid in a Marlins uniform for a few years, and I believe we will see more of that while he's in this positive mindset. Then there's Gio Gonzalez, who is not only Mr. Consistency, but he's also gunning for an NL Cy Young award. After RA Dickey showcased another excellent performance today, look for Gio to try and one-up his main competition, while also looking to pump out a quality start in helping his ballclub hold their ground at the top of the league. He's coming off one of his finest performances of the season so hopefully we get more of that seemingly first-half Gio Gonzalez (When he was untouchable) here tonight. I JUST WISH THE LINE WOULD BE 8 LIKE IT SHOULD BE and this would be a triple-digit bet, as I fear 6-2... then again, the first three games this afternoon all ended 6-2, so the Law of Averages dictates it's very unlikely we get another one. Still, I'm banking on 5-1/4-2 in this pitching matchup.

Other 9/5 MLB Over/Unders I'm Taking:
White vs Minor OVER 8 - $30 for $25


I might still add one or two more.
 
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Apologies on that loss, I take best bet losses personally and will atone for it tomorrow. I'm very surprised with Chris Volstad tonight, just did not expect that out of him
 

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Jordan Baker was the ump in Atlanta
1-12 under this season
BOL
 

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Hey man I was wondering if you have a separate record for your "best bets" as opposed to the regular bets.. Also any thing for today? 2 early games.. Thanks
 
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Hey man I was wondering if you have a separate record for your "best bets" as opposed to the regular bets.. Also any thing for today? 2 early games.. Thanks

Nope, everything is combined, although that is definitely something I'd want to know and may add that component to my in-depth stat breakdown at the end of the season (When I find out my record with each team, pitcher, day of the week, etc).

As for the two early games, I liked the Estrada vs Johnson under but I'm going to pass with the line at 7.5 instead of 8
 

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