I've been having a lot of success this year betting baseball using advanced metrics and I'm going to post my plays here for tracking.
9/7
Baltimore Orioles (W Chen) RL +175
Milwaukee Brewers (Y Gallardo) ML +130
San Diego Padres (A Cashner) RL +190
Quick Analysis:
Over the past month, the Orioles have been a much better team than the Yankees have. The Yankees are still dealing with injuries, banged up players, and the wear and tear of the season taking its toll on their older roster. The Orioles, on the other hand, are young and have all the momentum in addition to being at home.
The Brewers, over the past few weeks to a month, have been one of the best teams in baseball. Their offense is hitting well, their bullpen has been the best over the last 4 weeks, and they have their ace on the mound. Gallardo had a great August and was red hot before his last start. His opponent, Kyle Lohse, has been solid but not nearly pitching as well as his 2.63 ERA indicates. The Brewers are playing well and should be able to do something against him. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been going in the other direction and have been below average over the last few weeks. Their offense has been disappointing and could have a tough time hitting Gallardo.
The Padres, like the Brewers, over the past few weeks, have been great. They're very underrated right now and so is their pitcher. Cashner is one of the best rookies in the game right now and faces an Arizona offense that hasn't been hitting the ball well lately. Arizona's starter, Skaggs, has been over-performing and is not as good as his 2.60 ERA over 17 innings would indicate. He's walked 8 batters in that stretch and only struck out 12. His .204 BABIP and 90.4% left on base rate is keeping him alive but that is unsustainable. I expect the Padres offense to score a bunch off him while Cashner should be solid against a weak Arizona offense.
9/7
Baltimore Orioles (W Chen) RL +175
Milwaukee Brewers (Y Gallardo) ML +130
San Diego Padres (A Cashner) RL +190
Quick Analysis:
Over the past month, the Orioles have been a much better team than the Yankees have. The Yankees are still dealing with injuries, banged up players, and the wear and tear of the season taking its toll on their older roster. The Orioles, on the other hand, are young and have all the momentum in addition to being at home.
The Brewers, over the past few weeks to a month, have been one of the best teams in baseball. Their offense is hitting well, their bullpen has been the best over the last 4 weeks, and they have their ace on the mound. Gallardo had a great August and was red hot before his last start. His opponent, Kyle Lohse, has been solid but not nearly pitching as well as his 2.63 ERA indicates. The Brewers are playing well and should be able to do something against him. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been going in the other direction and have been below average over the last few weeks. Their offense has been disappointing and could have a tough time hitting Gallardo.
The Padres, like the Brewers, over the past few weeks, have been great. They're very underrated right now and so is their pitcher. Cashner is one of the best rookies in the game right now and faces an Arizona offense that hasn't been hitting the ball well lately. Arizona's starter, Skaggs, has been over-performing and is not as good as his 2.60 ERA over 17 innings would indicate. He's walked 8 batters in that stretch and only struck out 12. His .204 BABIP and 90.4% left on base rate is keeping him alive but that is unsustainable. I expect the Padres offense to score a bunch off him while Cashner should be solid against a weak Arizona offense.
