The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 7, 2012 - YTD: 315-287-39 (62-40-12 since August 2)

2012 MLB O/U Record: 315-287-39, -$1,293 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Only took one game yesterday, which pushed, while I was, as usual, perfect with the games I recommended and didn't bet on. Some days, at least very few ones, it's okay to have minimum action when you take literally zero days off (Besides the all-star break) ALL season. It's the equivalent of going to the office for half a day - yeah, you went to work, but left so early that, at the end of the day, it just didn't feel like work, and thus, you feel a bit re-charged for the next day. Lets see exactly what this certain particular philosophy does for me on this Friday evening...


Travis Wood vs AJ Burnett UNDER 7.5 - $48 for $45
I was waiting all day to see if the line would go up to 8 (Since I also had a strong 6-2 vibe) for this pitching matchup, which is what it SHOULD be when you look at who's set to start for the Cubs tonght, but alas, it never happened. In any case, we can still win this with what we're given, considering AJ Burnett's mastery of the Cubs in 2012. Aside from his exceptional numbers, arguably the best single-season campaign of his career, Burnett has been at his best against Chicago in shutting them out over two starts, spanning 14-plus innings. In fact, he even had a no-hitter going against them into the 8th back in late-July, before losing it with two outs. We should feel confident with Burnett's outlook tonight, especially since he has the type of mentality where he's not caught up on individual accolades, but rather with simply his team winning, and we should also feel pretty good about Travis Wood. For one, the Pirates (With the exception of Andrew McCutchen) are not good against left-handed pitching (Although they have improved over the past couple of monhs in that department), and aside from that, Wood has made strides in retaining his earlier season form, when he carried a 3.05 ERA into mid-July. He was solid against the Pirates on the first day of August (5 IP 2 ER, 6Ks), and he's gone seven innings in three of his last five starts, leading me to believe that he's getting back on track. As long as he hangs in there with Burnett, we can secure this under, but I just wish it was 8. Like I said, I can definitely see 6-2, but if that's the worst-case scenario (Or 6-4 is my absolute worst-case scenario), then the odds are in our favor.


Note: This is NOT my best bet. Tonight's best over/under bet is actually one of the 10 o'clock games, which I'll post within the hour along with my patented detailed write-up. And here's the rest of my card as of now...


Other 9/7 MLB Over/Under Bets I'm Taking:
Jacob Turner vs Stephen Strasburg UNDER 7.5 - $35 for $35 (Wish the line was 8 for this, too. 5-3 is a strong possibility)
Derek Holland vs Jeremy Hellickson UNDER 8.5 - $35 for $30
Jeff Francis vs Cliff Lee OVER 7.5 - $22 for $20


Would Also Recommend, But Not Taking:
Lucas Harrell vs Homer Bailey OVER 8
Henderson Alvarez vs Felix Doubront OVER 9.5


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**

**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**

Unbelievable. Three errors by the Pirates defense to lead to those four runs. Apparently that's the only way the Cubs, who are on a pitiful six-game losing streak, can score off AJ Burnett. This fluke bullshit shouldn't decide an over/under when Burnett was cruising

Think Vegas decides to slaughter public 2nite, i'd lay off the rest

And apparently, Nationals' management has completely obliterated Strasburg's psyche and mindset, which, as I always stress, is more important than any talent set. Good job, retards. I said it months ago and it's nice to see 85-90% of people agree - this will go down as one of the most monumental bad decisions in sports history.

Coolie said:

Think Vegas decides to slaughter public 2nite, i'd lay off the rest

Click to expand...

Lol nah, my best bet is still yet to come from the 10 o'clock slate

don't know how the scrubs and the stros getting all these runs

cause i have pitt big tonight and wash small.Whats your nite play Cat?

And here's my best bet, with extensive analysis that should give you a sense of comfort in tailing...


Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (Best Bet) - $81 for $70
Tyler Skaggs vs Andrew Cashner
UNDER 7

I was afraid the line for this matchup would be 6.5, but thankfully, Vegas thought otherwise and slapped the 7-treatment on it, which gives this one potential. At first glance, it might be a little worrisome that the more dependable factor in this under, Tyler Skaggs, has made just three Major League starts, but boy, he's looked real solid and steady through the aforementioned trifecta of outings. While he's averaging less than six innings per assignment thus far (Since Kirk Gibson is gradually working him up towards a higher pitch-count, as per just about every young rookie starting pitcher), he's contributed some excellent work, allowing two earned runs or less in each start. With this being his fourth start, I'd like to believe that the kid-gloves will now be taken off, especially with the Diamondbacks in a position where they have to make an immediate extended run in order to make any sort of postseason push. Thus, Skaggs has the freedom to go deep, and with the Padres' struggles against southpaws for most of this season, his outlook looks bright tonight, as he seeks to keep this hot run going to begin his big-league career.

On the other side of the equation is the very intriguing Andrew Cashner, who I've written about before as being a real under-the-radar youngster with loads of potential (Which I previously did not believe as he floundered around in the Cubs' rotation in the couple of years prior to 2012). Normally, I'd feel very, very good about him in a home start at cozy Petco, but unfortunately, this is a spot where we have to deal with the unfortunate variable of him making his first start back from a lengthy injury. Interestingly, it was against these same D-backs whom Cashner left early against with said injury, but he's such an enormous talent with real good veocity and stuff that I believe he can pick up right where he left off. If he was completely healthy - without any doubts - I think the line would be 6.5, so we have to accept him with said variable otherwise it might be a tougher under to win, and that's a gamble I'll make in buying him low. After all, right before he went on the DL, Cashner had a near-no-hitter in Houston in late-June (When they were A LOT more respectable with Carlos Lee, Jed Lowrie, etc... by the way, that was the game with arguably the worst beat of the season when I lost the under because San Diego, down 3-1, ended their 112-game losing streak when trailing going into the ninth inning... on Alexei Amarista's first-career home-run, a grand slam, which came after an error, too. Bad memories), and just looked absolutely dominant. As long as he's feeling like himself again, which he says he is after a few rehab assignments, then I feel he can be trusted in a home start in an under of 7, even against a live offense like Arizona's, Should be an intriguing battle of young potential mainstay starters.

Five errors by the Pirates, a contender in a meaningful September game, against one of the worst road teams in recent memory. In fact, in this decisive sixth-inning, the first four batters reached without even hitting the ball out of the infield! Just un-fucking-real. I make an absolutely BRILLIANT call on Travis Wood, which is all I needed considering AJ Burnett owns the Cubs, and was on pace to own them without the bullshit defense... and this is what I get.

Whoever had the over of this game was wrong and off, yet will get the "win." Just inexcusable bullshit.

no importa cats. vamos por esas bajas de arizona. ahi nos desquitamos. lets go!

Scratch that, make it SEVEN ERRORS by the Pirates in one of the most bizarre bad beats in YEARS - just another one to add to the 2012 collection despite being 100-percent right with a true bold prediction in anticipating a good start from Travis Wood on the road against a hungry contender. This one stings a lot because this should've been an easy win, given how Wood looked. Absolutely ridiculous.

no matter how much you whine and bitch there were still 8 ER in the pirates game. so without an error you'd have still lost

don't know what you saw here that you thought was so much value, but hey we all lose some time that's why it's called gambling, if we won everytime, it would be called winning

rolltide said:

no matter how much you whine and bitch there were still 8 ER in the pirates game. so without an error you'd have still lost

Click to expand...

You obviously didn't watch the game, nor do you have any clue how the game was going to map out. So, by your logic, if 20 errors knock a starting pitcher out of the game in the second or third inning (Hypothetical situation, of course), and eight earned runs are scored after that, does that mean the bet "still would have lost?" Lol absolutely, absolutely, absolutely not.

Without all those errors, AJ Burnett obviously goes deeper into the game, obviously he's in his usual groove, and obviously, the game doesn't become a blow-out to the point where we have scrub September relievers late in the game "just to get work in," who end up giving a decent amount of runs.

I know I can complain but I am 100-percent right in my bitching concerning that game, as is any person in the entire country who had the under of that matchup (Especially those who, like me, made a brilliant, brilliant call on getting an excellent road performance from Travis freaking Wood). Any thought otherwise pertaining to that specific game is just obvious trolling so just stop right there.

Anything today Cat?

mokoman said:

Anything today Cat?

Click to expand...

Of course, my man. Still haven't taken a single day off this entire season

I'm working on today's article right now, which should be posted within the hour. Hopefully I pick it up right away today after Friday's mess because when days snowball, it becomes a mental issue rather than a talent issue. In other words, it's much harder to concentrate and analyze games from your normal mindset and perspective when you suddenly begin second-guessing yourself and get too wrapped up in the recent prior days. That's why I stress everything is all mental in gambling, or anything for that matter.

Cat, I have give you much respect and praise for the quality of your writeups. With that being said, you have got to be the biggest whining baby I have ever seen. You just can't accept a fucking loss can you? How can someone be right 100% on each game you lose? It's getting old dude, baseball is a 9 inning game. That Pitt game was 7 runs over the total bro, you were NOT 100% right on it, nor ANY of the games you lose. STOP MAKING EXCUSES, it makes you look bad and trust me, you lose respect. People are sick of you bitching and whining for EVERY game you lose, saying you were 100% right when in fact, you were not. Surprised you didn't bitch and complain and find a reason you were right on the SD game last night. Seriously, no one wants to see your whining day after day after day, stop it. Besides that, your writeups are excellent, but your whining and excuses SUCK

Screech said:

Cat, I have give you much respect and praise for the quality of your writeups. With that being said, you have got to be the biggest whining baby I have ever seen. You just can't accept a fucking loss can you? How can someone be right 100% on each game you lose? It's getting old dude, baseball is a 9 inning game. That Pitt game was 7 runs over the total bro, you were NOT 100% right on it, nor ANY of the games you lose. STOP MAKING EXCUSES, it makes you look bad and trust me, you lose respect. People are sick of you bitching and whining for EVERY game you lose, saying you were 100% right when in fact, you were not. Surprised you didn't bitch and complain and find a reason you were right on the SD game last night. Seriously, no one wants to see your whining day after day after day, stop it. Besides that, your writeups are excellent, but your whining and excuses SUCK

Click to expand...

I appreciate the kind words sprinkled in there, as I do with the other kind things you've said throughout the year because I remember some of the nice posts you've written towards me. The rest of this specific post, not so much lol

First off, I don't complain about all of my losses, although I do acknowledge that I probably whine more than most. Last night, I uncharacteristically lost four games, but I only complained about one, and that's one that I have a legitimate gripe with:

The Pirates MADE SEVEN ERRORS... SEVEN! How can anyone say that's NOT a bad beat, especially with the great AJ Burnett on the mound, who previously allowed zero runs to the Cubs all year? I'm not specifically addressing this to you but a lot of times, and not just in my threads but some others as well, I see people talk about games simply based on the statistics and boxscores... HOW can someone possibly extensively comment on a game without actually, um, watching it? I mean, I just can't wrap my mind around that theory. You have to WATCH the games to UNDERSTAND how they PLAY OUT. If you WATCHED this Cubs/Pirates game, you would understand where I was coming from. I wrote in great detail how Travis Wood, in a true bold prediction, would be solid, and six shut out innings, he gave up ONE hit. Could I have been anymore 100-percent right with a statline like that?? Of course not. And then with AJ Burnett, how exactly was he supposed to get in any sort of groove with all those errors behind him? I stress all the time: Pitching is all mental, mental, mental, mental. And while he was trying to solidify his rhythm, his defense kept letting him down - not just in one inning - but most of which he was in the game! That's not being wrong at all - that's called eating a bad beat that not one person in the country could predict. I don't understand what's so hard about grasping that: The fact is that whoever had the over most likely took it because Travis Wood was pitching, and thus, they were WRONG, and needed a complete fluke break like a team committing seven errors for the over to hit.

P.S. To "rolltide," I could also argue that the runs that were considered "earned," actually weren't, because if you watched the game, you'd know that some of those runs that were "earned" followed errors allowing those runners to advance (Ex. In the first inning, Brock Holt messed up a double play ball and got NO outs of it, which allowed a runner to advance. That said runner would later score with two outs when he would not have been that far in the first place without the error, and it was considered "earned," HENCE why I say you have to watch the games to understand them.

Now please allow me to focus on today's slate (Saturday), which I'm currently writing my article for. The Pirate game was what it was and there's nothing I can do about it so I'd rather just drop the issue. Thanks

Well said, I do give you much respect for your responses. And you did explain a lot. You are def right about watching a game to see how it unfolds such as errors leading to earned runs later in the inning which should not have happened. All in all, you are very knowledgable and classy, but still, for your own good, I believe in Karma. Suck up your losses like a man and move on. It will lead to better things happening than over analyzing something that lead to your loss. Baseball is like this, these things happen you know that more than anyone. Just think the 100 % correct statement on losses should be dropped, just being flat out honest. No one likes to hear complaining about bad breaks, it happens in the game of gambling. Anyways, that's all, good luck today. And like I said, your writeups are some of the best I have seen, your whining not so much lol. Peace out bro

Screech said:

Well said, I do give you much respect for your responses. And you did explain a lot. You are def right about watching a game to see how it unfolds such as errors leading to earned runs later in the inning which should not have happened. All in all, you are very knowledgable and classy, but still, for your own good, I believe in Karma. Suck up your losses like a man and move on. It will lead to better things happening than over analyzing something that lead to your loss. Baseball is like this, these things happen you know that more than anyone. Just think the 100 % correct statement on losses should be dropped, just being flat out honest. No one likes to hear complaining about bad breaks, it happens in the game of gambling. Anyways, that's all, good luck today. And like I said, your writeups are some of the best I have seen, your whining not so much lol. Peace out bro

Click to expand...

That's well said also. I WISH WISH WISH I wasn't in the mindset of always overanalyzing everything... but unfortunately, that's how I am personally - It's my biggest weakness. If I could only approach the same day with the same steady mindset without overanalyzing every goddamn thing, I feel I'd be truly invincible at this.

But unfortunately, that is far from easy for me. I am my only enemy at this.