2012 MLB O/U Record: 316-291-39, -$1,446 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Going into yesterday, I was rolling along with an incredible 62-40-12 run since August 2nd, which was arguably the hottest streak going in the entire country (Out of any publically-documented performances on this site or any other). Ironically, I then proceeded to have a discouraging 1-4 day - my worst since August 1st, the day before this remarkable excellence began. I mean, it’s obviously not all my fault, as the Burnett vs Wood under was a complete shit-show, with the Pirates making seven errors and dooming their ace from the start, after he was basically a guarantee to pump out yet another terrific outing against a team he has owned in 2012. The worst part is that he could’ve been mediocre, and with Travis Wood doing the great work he did, we still would have won, but instead, those who had the under of this matchup received just an awful, awful bad beat. At the end of the day, it is what it is, and the fact remains that, in a rare instance, I was off on my best bet Skaggs vs Cashner under, although it turns out I would’ve had no chance anyway because San Diego’s top-rated bullpen ultimately blew it in the later innings (Although if Denorfia doesn’t drop thatball in right, leading to two runs, and Grandal catches the strike-three to Montero, which allowed him to score later on, it’s 5-0 late in the ballgame and we have a fine chance of winning)… but like I said, it is what it is and it’s never good to dwell on recent mishaps. Hopefully this was just a minor bump in the road, in which I can simply cruise past, so let’s see if that’s the case on this Saturday…
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $66 for $55
Jeff Samardzija vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5
Yes, I’m staying in Pittsburgh for game two of this series, although unlike last night, this will serve as tonight’s best bet. The only variable I’m afraid of when encountering this pitching matchup is that we already know it will be the final start of the season for Jeff Samardzija, who, when all is said and done, will go down as one of the top feel-good stories from this 2012 season. Most people, myself included, did not expect him to have the success that he enjoyed this year, his first as a starter, and it’s been an interesting ride for the former stand-out Notre Dame wide receiver. After all, Samardzija was nothing short of brilliant in the first two months of the year, before suddenly finding himself strapped with an ERA north of 5 heading into July. However, he gradually got back on track, bringing his ERA below 4 again as he heads into this last outing, while still maintaining a really, really good 171:55 K:BB ratio in just 165 innings. Of course, as I alluded to, this is the final assignment for Samardzija, and it’s always unfortunate when that happens before the very end of the season. It’s one thing if a guy is set to make hislast start within a normal timeframe, like at the end of September to conclude the usual season’s worth of work, but this is new for Jeff, and it’s coming in early-September, meaning there are unfortunate variables to deal with. How doeshe feel about being shut down early? Does he truly understand why it’s being done? Is he bitter about it? Is he happy about it and is simply just going to go through the motions tonight? Is he content with how he rescued his season and will just be on the mound for fun? I mean, it’s almost unfair to the point where you wish Vegas was giving you plus odds because there’s such a tough human element attached to this specific variable. I read as many quotes as I could from a couple of game previews and Samardzija-related articles, and from that, I gathered the notion that he’s a smart guy. He knows why this is being done, and understands how manager Dale Sveum envisions him as their No. 2 or even No. 1 starter heading into next year, which I believe should put him in a steady comfortable state of mind as he just seeks to end his 2012 campaign in the best way possible. It also helps that the Pirates are struggling, and considering Samardzija’s best start of the year came in Pittsburgh not too long ago (8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 Ks on 7/23), then perhaps it is more likely we get one of his usual good efforts tonight. Last start of the year, kid: Make it a good one and keep your confidence up.
While there is doubt swirling around the Cubs’ starter tonight, at least I can take solace in the fact that I know the opposing hurler, James McDonald, as well as anyone in the country. Is that an exaggeration at all? Of course not, considering I: A)Named him one of my topt hree sleeper starting pitchers coming into the season (Along with Lucas Harrell and Blake Beavan) and B)Have been tracking him closely even before he came to Pittsburgh in the middle of 2010, because he’s always been one of my favorite pitchers (I also always thought it was laughable that the Dodgers never gave him a full opportunity to be in their rotation). I always, always, always stressed his mighty potential, thanks to the absolutely tremendous stuff he’s possessed in his pitching repertoire, so it’s just been a real joy, from af an and journalistic standpoint (I do have my degree in Journalism, you know),to see him grow into the upper echelon pitcher I ALWAYS knew he’d be. Unfortunately, McDonald has fallen off quite a bit over the second half from his great first-half success, and as a result, it’s been much tougher to plot out his starts, which is why I’ve barely taken any of his over/unders since the break. In this case, however, I think he’ll bounce back. He’s coming off one of his worst starts ofthe year, when he allowed seven earned runs in less than three innings. If there’s one bright spot out of that pertaining to this specific contest, it’s that the last time J-Mac gave up seven runs (8/10 against San Diego), he followed it up with a beautiful outing in St. Louis that saw him toss six shutout innings. He’s always been better at home, which is especially true this year if you look at his split stats (2.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home versus 5.40 and 1.52 on the road), so at least we have that going for us as well. At the end of the day, in these crucial September starts, you have to really take them one by one. This is a huge game for Pittsburgh in their playoff push, and that’s all McDonald can think about. Arguably, this might be the most important game he’s ever pitched in, considering the mess his team was involved in last night so much like yours’ truly and my bad night 24 hours ago, it’s crucial not to let it snowball, so hopefully one of my real favorite starters in the game, James McDonald, not only prevents further damage for his team, but for me as well. Kind of a poetic situation, if you ask me.
Other9/8 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Zach McAllister vs Cole De Vries OVER 9 - $33 for $30
Bud Norris vs Bronson Arroyo UNDER 8 - $28 for $25
Bruce Chen vs Chris Sale UNDER 8.5 - $22 for $20
Probably going to add the Fiers vs Westbrook under and Miley vs Kelly under if they go up to 8 and 7, respectively. Of course, I’ll let you know exactly what I do.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Going into yesterday, I was rolling along with an incredible 62-40-12 run since August 2nd, which was arguably the hottest streak going in the entire country (Out of any publically-documented performances on this site or any other). Ironically, I then proceeded to have a discouraging 1-4 day - my worst since August 1st, the day before this remarkable excellence began. I mean, it’s obviously not all my fault, as the Burnett vs Wood under was a complete shit-show, with the Pirates making seven errors and dooming their ace from the start, after he was basically a guarantee to pump out yet another terrific outing against a team he has owned in 2012. The worst part is that he could’ve been mediocre, and with Travis Wood doing the great work he did, we still would have won, but instead, those who had the under of this matchup received just an awful, awful bad beat. At the end of the day, it is what it is, and the fact remains that, in a rare instance, I was off on my best bet Skaggs vs Cashner under, although it turns out I would’ve had no chance anyway because San Diego’s top-rated bullpen ultimately blew it in the later innings (Although if Denorfia doesn’t drop thatball in right, leading to two runs, and Grandal catches the strike-three to Montero, which allowed him to score later on, it’s 5-0 late in the ballgame and we have a fine chance of winning)… but like I said, it is what it is and it’s never good to dwell on recent mishaps. Hopefully this was just a minor bump in the road, in which I can simply cruise past, so let’s see if that’s the case on this Saturday…
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Best Bet) - $66 for $55
Jeff Samardzija vs James McDonald
UNDER 7.5
Yes, I’m staying in Pittsburgh for game two of this series, although unlike last night, this will serve as tonight’s best bet. The only variable I’m afraid of when encountering this pitching matchup is that we already know it will be the final start of the season for Jeff Samardzija, who, when all is said and done, will go down as one of the top feel-good stories from this 2012 season. Most people, myself included, did not expect him to have the success that he enjoyed this year, his first as a starter, and it’s been an interesting ride for the former stand-out Notre Dame wide receiver. After all, Samardzija was nothing short of brilliant in the first two months of the year, before suddenly finding himself strapped with an ERA north of 5 heading into July. However, he gradually got back on track, bringing his ERA below 4 again as he heads into this last outing, while still maintaining a really, really good 171:55 K:BB ratio in just 165 innings. Of course, as I alluded to, this is the final assignment for Samardzija, and it’s always unfortunate when that happens before the very end of the season. It’s one thing if a guy is set to make hislast start within a normal timeframe, like at the end of September to conclude the usual season’s worth of work, but this is new for Jeff, and it’s coming in early-September, meaning there are unfortunate variables to deal with. How doeshe feel about being shut down early? Does he truly understand why it’s being done? Is he bitter about it? Is he happy about it and is simply just going to go through the motions tonight? Is he content with how he rescued his season and will just be on the mound for fun? I mean, it’s almost unfair to the point where you wish Vegas was giving you plus odds because there’s such a tough human element attached to this specific variable. I read as many quotes as I could from a couple of game previews and Samardzija-related articles, and from that, I gathered the notion that he’s a smart guy. He knows why this is being done, and understands how manager Dale Sveum envisions him as their No. 2 or even No. 1 starter heading into next year, which I believe should put him in a steady comfortable state of mind as he just seeks to end his 2012 campaign in the best way possible. It also helps that the Pirates are struggling, and considering Samardzija’s best start of the year came in Pittsburgh not too long ago (8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 Ks on 7/23), then perhaps it is more likely we get one of his usual good efforts tonight. Last start of the year, kid: Make it a good one and keep your confidence up.
While there is doubt swirling around the Cubs’ starter tonight, at least I can take solace in the fact that I know the opposing hurler, James McDonald, as well as anyone in the country. Is that an exaggeration at all? Of course not, considering I: A)Named him one of my topt hree sleeper starting pitchers coming into the season (Along with Lucas Harrell and Blake Beavan) and B)Have been tracking him closely even before he came to Pittsburgh in the middle of 2010, because he’s always been one of my favorite pitchers (I also always thought it was laughable that the Dodgers never gave him a full opportunity to be in their rotation). I always, always, always stressed his mighty potential, thanks to the absolutely tremendous stuff he’s possessed in his pitching repertoire, so it’s just been a real joy, from af an and journalistic standpoint (I do have my degree in Journalism, you know),to see him grow into the upper echelon pitcher I ALWAYS knew he’d be. Unfortunately, McDonald has fallen off quite a bit over the second half from his great first-half success, and as a result, it’s been much tougher to plot out his starts, which is why I’ve barely taken any of his over/unders since the break. In this case, however, I think he’ll bounce back. He’s coming off one of his worst starts ofthe year, when he allowed seven earned runs in less than three innings. If there’s one bright spot out of that pertaining to this specific contest, it’s that the last time J-Mac gave up seven runs (8/10 against San Diego), he followed it up with a beautiful outing in St. Louis that saw him toss six shutout innings. He’s always been better at home, which is especially true this year if you look at his split stats (2.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home versus 5.40 and 1.52 on the road), so at least we have that going for us as well. At the end of the day, in these crucial September starts, you have to really take them one by one. This is a huge game for Pittsburgh in their playoff push, and that’s all McDonald can think about. Arguably, this might be the most important game he’s ever pitched in, considering the mess his team was involved in last night so much like yours’ truly and my bad night 24 hours ago, it’s crucial not to let it snowball, so hopefully one of my real favorite starters in the game, James McDonald, not only prevents further damage for his team, but for me as well. Kind of a poetic situation, if you ask me.
Other9/8 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Zach McAllister vs Cole De Vries OVER 9 - $33 for $30
Bud Norris vs Bronson Arroyo UNDER 8 - $28 for $25
Bruce Chen vs Chris Sale UNDER 8.5 - $22 for $20
Probably going to add the Fiers vs Westbrook under and Miley vs Kelly under if they go up to 8 and 7, respectively. Of course, I’ll let you know exactly what I do.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
