2012 MLB O/U Record: 321-294-39, -$1,350 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Going into yesterday’s slate, I was a bit worried that my intense focus on baseball this year would start to dwindle a bit with the return of football, and thus, might lead to some decline despite my near-60-percent hit-rate in my beloved MLB Over/Unders over the past month-and-change. However, that was not the case, as while my newfound focus for football certainly showed in going an incredible 9-2 in Week 1 (Including 4-1 in NFL Over/Unders. Made over $300 so make sure you check out my football articles!), I also went 3-1 yesterday with baseball, including a very nice best bet Nolasco vs Jackson under 8.5 victory that just hung on in the end. That being said, I still recognize that it’s tough to juggle two sports at once(Hell, it’s tough to even juggle two types of bets at once in one sport, which is why I only really concentrate on my dear over/unders, rather than also doing MLs, RLs, etc.), but this being a day where there’s only two football games, I could return at least most of my focus back to baseball, so let’s see what I have in store for you on this Monday…
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres (Best Bet) - $126 for $120
Jaime Garcia vs Eric Stults
UNDER 7
It’s always a VERY good feeling when a game sticks out right away, and that is the exact case in tonight’s best bet. First of all, I thought for sure this game would get the 6.5-treatment in terms of where the line would be, and was pretty surprised to see it at 7. Not only that, I’m absolutely shocked that the extra juice is on the over. I mean, that’s a curious, curious decision on the part of Vegas, as there have been FARRRRRR inferior pitching matchups at Petco Park this year that have had a lesser over/under line (Ex. Randy Wolf vs Joe Wieland from April/May-ish). I would understand the reasoning a bit more if Jamie Garcia was entering this contest with a slump, which is exactly what he would be doing if it wasn’t for his last start, in which he was masterful at home against the Mets in my best bet under this past Tuesday when he was dominant in seven-plus innings and allowing no earned runs, while striking out five. THAT is the Jaime Garcia I expected to see again when he returned from the disabled list a few weeks ago. However, that last start could also be attributed to his glaring split stats, in which he has always been significantly better at home (2.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP this year) compared to on the road (5.80 ERA, 1.56 WHIP this year), and to those who feel that is something that will come about in this game, I counter and raise it with this: Law of Averages. Not just that, of course, but the fact that Garcia is a real good, solid pitcher who cannot just continue to muddle in those interesting road woes. A good pitcher will come out of something so drastic like that in time, and why can’t it begin tonight? While the Padres have improved dramatically over the past couple of months against left-handed pitching, they’re still riddled in the bottom half of the league in that department, and Garcia could be in a real groove right now after that last start rescued him from an ugly two-start stretch that saw him yield ten runs in 11 innings. I believe that not only will Garcia pitch effectively, but he’ll also carry this particular under in attaining a win for himself as well.
Ah, and then we have Eric Stults, my own top-ten favorite pitcher. For those that are new to my writing, let’s just say this: I pretty much fucking DISCOVERED Eric Stults. Sounds ridiculous, right? Well it certainly isn’t if you’ve been reading my work all year, like when I wrote almost 1,000 words on how underrated this guy was… before his very first start of the season (May 7. Look it up in my “Started Threads” history if you want)… which was his first start since 2009 (I also ridiculed the White Sox for waiving him soon after said start, before he was picked up by the Padres and given a shot in their rotation). In fact, I clamored for this guy to get another shot in somebody’s starting rotation after he caught my eye intently in that wonderful ’09 season (Which is when I first got into over/unders, remember) with the Dodgers, and now he’s finally been able to prove what he can do, in making me, without question, 100-percent right. After all, he’s 5-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. What else can you possibly ask out of your starting pitcher? Well, besides more strikeouts (Only 38 in 75 IP), but that’s okay because that’s not Stults’ game. His gameplan revolves around minimizing the walks and pitching to contact, which is perfectly acceptable when you pitch regularly in San Diego, and you know how to pull it off. Clearly, the Padres’southpaw has mastered that craft, as evident in how consistent he’s been this year. In fact, in his 10 starts with the Friars, he’s allowed two runs or less in seven of those outings, which is just remarkable given where this guy came from. I mean, I actually don’t think he’ll contribute one of such outings tonight against a tough Cardinals’ offense (Like I said, I believe Garcia will carry this under and win), but Stults should play his usual role in helping an under come out on top. I am 4-1 in his unders, after all, with the one under of his I “lost” being the Jeremy Hefner debut game on that Thursday night a few months back, in which a rain delay led Hefner to give up a boatload of runs as soon as play resumed… while Stults gave up zero runs in his five innings of work, meaning that "loss" was completely zero-percent my fault. So, yeah, I pretty much have owned Eric Stults this year, and expect his assignment tonight to lead to yet another under.
Other 9/10 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Wade LeBlanc vs Kyle Kendrick OVER 8 - $30 for $30
Would Also Recommend, But Not Taking (Winning 60-percent of these!):
Gio Gonzalez vs Colin McHugh OVER 7.5 (Might take if it drops to 7. This is a 7-1 type of game)
Rick Porcello vs Jose Quintana OVER 9 (Quintana clearly rattled from his last start)
Ryan Vogelsong vs Alex White OVER 10.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Going into yesterday’s slate, I was a bit worried that my intense focus on baseball this year would start to dwindle a bit with the return of football, and thus, might lead to some decline despite my near-60-percent hit-rate in my beloved MLB Over/Unders over the past month-and-change. However, that was not the case, as while my newfound focus for football certainly showed in going an incredible 9-2 in Week 1 (Including 4-1 in NFL Over/Unders. Made over $300 so make sure you check out my football articles!), I also went 3-1 yesterday with baseball, including a very nice best bet Nolasco vs Jackson under 8.5 victory that just hung on in the end. That being said, I still recognize that it’s tough to juggle two sports at once(Hell, it’s tough to even juggle two types of bets at once in one sport, which is why I only really concentrate on my dear over/unders, rather than also doing MLs, RLs, etc.), but this being a day where there’s only two football games, I could return at least most of my focus back to baseball, so let’s see what I have in store for you on this Monday…
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres (Best Bet) - $126 for $120
Jaime Garcia vs Eric Stults
UNDER 7
It’s always a VERY good feeling when a game sticks out right away, and that is the exact case in tonight’s best bet. First of all, I thought for sure this game would get the 6.5-treatment in terms of where the line would be, and was pretty surprised to see it at 7. Not only that, I’m absolutely shocked that the extra juice is on the over. I mean, that’s a curious, curious decision on the part of Vegas, as there have been FARRRRRR inferior pitching matchups at Petco Park this year that have had a lesser over/under line (Ex. Randy Wolf vs Joe Wieland from April/May-ish). I would understand the reasoning a bit more if Jamie Garcia was entering this contest with a slump, which is exactly what he would be doing if it wasn’t for his last start, in which he was masterful at home against the Mets in my best bet under this past Tuesday when he was dominant in seven-plus innings and allowing no earned runs, while striking out five. THAT is the Jaime Garcia I expected to see again when he returned from the disabled list a few weeks ago. However, that last start could also be attributed to his glaring split stats, in which he has always been significantly better at home (2.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP this year) compared to on the road (5.80 ERA, 1.56 WHIP this year), and to those who feel that is something that will come about in this game, I counter and raise it with this: Law of Averages. Not just that, of course, but the fact that Garcia is a real good, solid pitcher who cannot just continue to muddle in those interesting road woes. A good pitcher will come out of something so drastic like that in time, and why can’t it begin tonight? While the Padres have improved dramatically over the past couple of months against left-handed pitching, they’re still riddled in the bottom half of the league in that department, and Garcia could be in a real groove right now after that last start rescued him from an ugly two-start stretch that saw him yield ten runs in 11 innings. I believe that not only will Garcia pitch effectively, but he’ll also carry this particular under in attaining a win for himself as well.
Ah, and then we have Eric Stults, my own top-ten favorite pitcher. For those that are new to my writing, let’s just say this: I pretty much fucking DISCOVERED Eric Stults. Sounds ridiculous, right? Well it certainly isn’t if you’ve been reading my work all year, like when I wrote almost 1,000 words on how underrated this guy was… before his very first start of the season (May 7. Look it up in my “Started Threads” history if you want)… which was his first start since 2009 (I also ridiculed the White Sox for waiving him soon after said start, before he was picked up by the Padres and given a shot in their rotation). In fact, I clamored for this guy to get another shot in somebody’s starting rotation after he caught my eye intently in that wonderful ’09 season (Which is when I first got into over/unders, remember) with the Dodgers, and now he’s finally been able to prove what he can do, in making me, without question, 100-percent right. After all, he’s 5-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. What else can you possibly ask out of your starting pitcher? Well, besides more strikeouts (Only 38 in 75 IP), but that’s okay because that’s not Stults’ game. His gameplan revolves around minimizing the walks and pitching to contact, which is perfectly acceptable when you pitch regularly in San Diego, and you know how to pull it off. Clearly, the Padres’southpaw has mastered that craft, as evident in how consistent he’s been this year. In fact, in his 10 starts with the Friars, he’s allowed two runs or less in seven of those outings, which is just remarkable given where this guy came from. I mean, I actually don’t think he’ll contribute one of such outings tonight against a tough Cardinals’ offense (Like I said, I believe Garcia will carry this under and win), but Stults should play his usual role in helping an under come out on top. I am 4-1 in his unders, after all, with the one under of his I “lost” being the Jeremy Hefner debut game on that Thursday night a few months back, in which a rain delay led Hefner to give up a boatload of runs as soon as play resumed… while Stults gave up zero runs in his five innings of work, meaning that "loss" was completely zero-percent my fault. So, yeah, I pretty much have owned Eric Stults this year, and expect his assignment tonight to lead to yet another under.
Other 9/10 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Wade LeBlanc vs Kyle Kendrick OVER 8 - $30 for $30
Would Also Recommend, But Not Taking (Winning 60-percent of these!):
Gio Gonzalez vs Colin McHugh OVER 7.5 (Might take if it drops to 7. This is a 7-1 type of game)
Rick Porcello vs Jose Quintana OVER 9 (Quintana clearly rattled from his last start)
Ryan Vogelsong vs Alex White OVER 10.5
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
