USA presidential betting

OptionA · Sep 11, 2012

If you go to betfair, they offer state-by-state betting. Only Florida is in play, with Obama at -139 and Romney at +128. If you go through the states that are supposedly in play, Obama is priced at:

nevada -400
colorado -345
iowa -213
wisconsin -238
ohio -303
virginia -238
new hampshire -526

Romney:
north carolina -176

If you give Florida (-139) to Obama, that gives him 332 electoral votes. Even if Romney were to pull Florida out, that still leaves him short. What do you guys think? Is there any way Romney can pull it off or is Obama priced at -220 to win the election a good bet?

Please keep partisan politics out of this thread, I'm not even an American so I don't care who y'all elect. Purely for wagering purposes.

Willie99 · Sep 11, 2012

every state listed is within the margin of error, so it depends on how you think things will trend from here on out

history tells us incumbents lose in a bad economy

the real campaign is only just beginning, people will start paying more attention, money will be spent from thousands of sources and the debates will be a factor

I think the dawgs are barking. Obama has lots of election history to overcome. But if you think Obama has 303 electoral votes without FL (332 - 29), you should be betting large on Obama

Fishhead · Sep 11, 2012

Willie99 said:
every state listed is within the margin of error, so it depends on how you think things will trend from here on out

history tells us incumbents lose in a bad economy

the real campaign is only just beginning, people will start paying more attention, money will be spent from thousands of sources and the debates will be a factor

I think the dawgs are barking. Obama has lots of election history to overcome. But if you think Obama has 303 electoral votes without FL (332 - 29), you should be betting large on Obama

*Fishhead has deducted 8.5 RX PTS from Willie

jb777 · Sep 11, 2012

Fishhead said:
*Fishhead has deducted 8.5 RX PTS from Willie

Lol

KennyB · Sep 11, 2012

I just don't see Obama winning every swing state which means that there is value in the dog if you bet state by state. I think Romney is within the margin of error on every one of those polls.

CHOPTALK · Sep 11, 2012

OptionA said:
If you go to betfair, they offer state-by-state betting. Only Florida is in play, with Obama at -139 and Romney at +128. If you go through the states that are supposedly in play, Obama is priced at:

nevada -400
colorado -345
iowa -213
wisconsin -238
ohio -303
virginia -238
new hampshire -526

Romney:
north carolina -176

If you give Florida (-139) to Obama, that gives him 332 electoral votes. Even if Romney were to pull Florida out, that still leaves him short. What do you guys think? Is there any way Romney can pull it off or is Obama priced at -220 to win the election a good bet?

Please keep partisan politics out of this thread, I'm not even an American so I don't care who y'all elect. Purely for wagering purposes.

I think -220 is about right.
No value either way.
Obama is about a 2 to 1 favorite IMO, and the odds reflect that.

mnmike · Sep 11, 2012

A recent poll put romney ahead by 10 in NC and he's -176, recent polls have put Obama ahead by 2-5 in Wisc and Ohio and he's -303 and -238. These numbers could flip in a heartbeat(after the debates?), Romney is the only way to play it right now.

PatsFan1283 · Sep 11, 2012

I'd bet Romney in NC -175 I think.....Totally massacre if he Ls NC. That is probably good value...

bigtendominator · Sep 11, 2012

I am totally shocked Obama is listed as such a huge favorite in CO. Maybe I am mistaking CO for another state, but I always thought that they went Red

Brotherwo · Sep 11, 2012

bigtendominator said:
I am totally shocked Obama is listed as such a huge favorite in CO. Maybe I am mistaking CO for another state, but I always thought that they went Red

traditionally true however Colorado also has quite a few Latinos (21%) which could hurt Romney. -345 does seem very steep and there actually might be value in the Red

DeathEatsaCracker · Sep 11, 2012

Nate Silver has Romney a 2-1 fave in NC.

beejmi · Sep 11, 2012

You shouldn't "fade the public" when handicapping an election that much I can tell ya.

CowboyT · Sep 11, 2012

Obama will win this election.

Like it or not, at this point in American history, people vote who they like or who they feel loves them more. In the moderate American viewpoint...Obama is the actor that plays the somewhat funny, likeable, classy, family man. Romney is the boss that you think is a good guy, you appreciate him because he goes to bat for you during reviews, but since the company is not doing so well, you're always afraid he'll lay you off if it helps his bottom line.

The latter, especially in this environment, is not the feeling you want to give. JMO

kcameron95 · Sep 11, 2012

mnmike said:
A recent poll put romney ahead by 10 in NC and he's -176, recent polls have put Obama ahead by 2-5 in Wisc and Ohio and he's -303 and -238. These numbers could flip in a heartbeat(after the debates?), Romney is the only way to play it right now.

I would not rely on one poll as they can be widely inaccurate. That specific poll had Romney getting 30% of the black vote. I think it is given Obama will get 95%+ of the black vote.

Unless you betting on Romney I would wait. Obama is probably at the highest he will be at this moment. IMO best time to bet in the case of Obama is a week prior to debates.

mnmike · Sep 11, 2012

kcameron95 said:
I would not rely on one poll as they can be widely inaccurate. That specific poll had Romney getting 30% of the black vote. I think it is given Obama will get 95%+ of the black vote.

Unless you betting on Romney I would wait. Obama is probably at the highest he will be at this moment. IMO best time to bet in the case of Obama is a week prior to debates.

Yea, and a national poll(showing obama ahead by 5) reported that dems outnumber repubs by 10% and only 5% of people were independant. both obvious mistakes in polling methods. By the way another poll had romney ahead by 5 in virg and behind by 5 in ohio, it's pretty typical of the liberal media to look at those type of numbers and report that ronmey is ahead in VA(but within the margin of error) and then claim Obama holds a clear lead in ohio(without a similar statement).

OptionA · Sep 11, 2012

Forget the polls, the real accuracy is in the betting line. Right now on betfair you can get $70 worth of Romney at +240, and $143 at +200. +200 dogs don't win in politics, I've been watching this for years. The betting line is amazingly accurate. I pegged Obama to exactly the amount of electoral votes he got against McCain last time based soley on the lines available at Pinnacle at the time, a few days before the election. Didn't bother with the "polls".

beejmi · Sep 12, 2012

What OptionA just said.

If I was a media member and I had the story to cover for two months I want you to be interested in my story. I am going to tell you how close it is going to be. 53-47 (or whatever) sounds pretty close, right?

The betting line tells the story. They are begging you to bet on Romney. The combination of votes however and wherever they are strongly favors Obama or else the odds would be much closer to even money.

mickj · Sep 12, 2012

Anybody know the Wisconsin recall odds?

OptionA · Sep 12, 2012

http://www.economist.com/node/3868824

mnmike · Sep 12, 2012

mickj said:
Anybody know the Wisconsin recall odds?

Exactly, it was pegged as extremely close right up to election day, it wasn't, the polls were off by high single digits. Some of you guys act like these odds are being set by political gurus who are closely in tune to whats going on, they're set by people who are looking at the same thing most of us are, saying "it looks like obama is ahead pretty good and will prob win".

When the odds change, and they will, will you guys say the same thing?

USA presidential betting

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