The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 11, 2012 - YTD: 321-296-39

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 321-296-39, -$1,496 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

A disappointing and rare 0-for-2 day yesterday, that can be attributed mostly to being distracted by my tremendous football betting success (10-2, up a few hundred dollars). Don’t even want to think about it, especially on a day like 9/11 when greater things should be on our minds, but let’s see what there is anyway on this Tuesday night slate…


Justin Germano vs Jordan Lyles OVER 8.5 - Price TBD
I’ve given Jordan Lyles chance after chance this year, and while the 21-year old definitely still has potential, I feel more times than not this year, he just simply unravels, especially in the fourth inning and beyond when his ERA is horrendous. For the first three innings, he’s pretty good, but that’s no shocker considering a lot of starters are good the first time through the lineup. A similar case can be made for his counterpart tonight, Justin Germano, who, at times, albeit very few, looks like the pitcher of old that showed promise back in 2007. But, as hard as it is to believe, that was five years ago, and at this point in time, Germano looks like he’s on the last legs of his Major League career, especially recently in which he’s surrendered five runs or more in four straight starts. With the line below nine, we don’t even need him to be that bad, considering both bullpens can struggle at any point. I mean, I don’t think I’m going to put a lot on this one, considering I didn’t have a real huge feel for it, but considering there are two very combustible starters here, who have the potential of being replaced by two very combustible bullpens in a park where the ball can get out fairly easily in right or left, well, there could be some runs on the board tonight. We shall see.


Madison Bumgarner vs Jhoulys Chacin UNDER 9.5 - Price TBD
Prior to August 25th, the last time Madison Bumgarner allowed more than three runs in a start was the fourth of July, when he served up a clunker of an outing in Washington. Since August 25th, however, seemingly all of his starts have been near clunkers, as he allowed four runs in each of them. Besides having the Law of Averages on our side, we know Bumgarner is better than that, especially in Coors Field…wait, what? Yes, the Giants’ southpaw has made two starts at Coors this year, producing a 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .191 batting-average-against in those 13-plus innings of work, while going 2-0. It could be the sole reason why the line is as low as it is (Notice how for just about every single Rockies home game, the over/under is almost always 10 or more, even with quality pitchers involved like last night’s Ryan Vogelsong start, when he faced the not-bad-at-all Alex White), although another reason could be the sudden emergence of Jhoulys Chacin, who returned to the team just recently in late-August, and has been sparkling in four starts since, allowing only one run in each. The Law of Averages dictates he won’t do that again for a fifth straight time, but with the line as high as it is, and the pacing of it to be mostly likely carried out by the opposing Bumgarner, we just need Chacin to be pretty good, which he’s been more than since coming back to the Major Leagues. If that’s the case, we’ll be in solid shape. Vegas clearly feels that will happen with their decision on the line for this game, as I thought for sure this one would be 10 or even higher… like every other game at Coors Field is. Making it 9.5 reveals their stance on this particular pitching matchup, which is very intriguing.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it beforethe game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
 

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I'll tail u on both. Crushed it out in Vegas this past weekend do why not. Plus u rarely have to bad back/back nights. Let's get it!!!!
 

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I got the germano/Lyles over at 9 +105. Still think it's worth it?
 
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Lol I don't quite understand this avatar, but if it's an insult regarding my baseball performance last night, I deserve it. I always expect perfection every night no matter where my mindset is, and that best bet loss last night was far off considering how bad Jaime Garcia was.

Also: ReBorn, if you're going to tail tonight, don't bet big amounts on my games because while I very rarely have back-to-back off nights, this is BRAND NEW territory for me from a mental standpoint, because now I automatically have football on my mind, even with no NFL over the next couple of days. Even so, it's a brief experimental phase for me juggling both sports and covering them very extensively on the site (Hence the long 1,500-word write-ups in football, too), so I just want to see how I react mentally after a bad night of baseball/incredible weekend of football, so I wisely recommend smaller amounts just to make sure I still have my normal confidence.

Human nature and mindset is everything, as I always preach
 
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Not taking anything from the 7 o'clock slate but I do recommend Ramirez vs Morrow over 8, Eovaldi vs Halladay under 8 (if you can still get it at 8), Zimmermann vs Dickey under 7, and Kuroda vs Lester under 8.5.

Also fascinated by the fact that I won a Mike Leake under in Cincinnati on this very Tuesday last year that I distinctly remember, and he's pitching at home tonight. Love stuff like that... Reason/Fact No. 781 how creepily obsessed I am with baseball over/unders and how nobody knows them better than I do.
 
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Final $$ amount on Bumgarner vs Chacin under 9.5 is $38 for $35... I see the juice went on the under now after being vice versa last night
 

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Ugh. Both totals are losses. Oh well can't win them all cats. It's all good. Next time.
 
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Ugh. Both totals are losses. Oh well can't win them all cats. It's all good. Next time.

Like I said, I had a bad feeling about football doing this to me. I wasnt really paying attention to football betting around this time last year, which allowed me to excel in September baseball; it's just about getting back into the intense mindset
 
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No amount??

Whoops, forgot the amount on it... since I'm 100-percent truthful in everything I do and say on here, as I've been all year and even before I came here, I'll admit it was for the minimum: $24 for $20

But wow, BIG over win in that last game to finish the night 1-2, not necessarily from a monetary standpoint, but just to avoid a 5-game losing streak heading into tomorrow is very, very crucial from a momentum and MENTAL standpoint. I mean, it's a little worrisome that I'm suddenly beginning to lose over/unders decisively (Such as those two tonight, when I was way off), but perhaps a nice little break there in the top of the ninth with Coco Crisp drilling that ball down the line with two outs, and the ball being bobbled in the corner, allowing him to score on the triple, thus pushing it over. That's just huge to enter tomorrow's slate of games with a normal mindset, rather than one carrying a losing streak and lacking confidence.
 
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Actually, I take back what I said about getting a "nice little break" in the top of the ninth of this Straily vs Williams over, as the Angels are pounding Balfour right now, helping the game go over significantly. In any case, I was also 100-percent right with Jerome Williams not even lasting four innings, and if anything, the under was lucky to last into the ninth inning, as the Angels blew numerous opportunities with runners in scoring position and less than two outs, most notably in the first inning when the Angels had first and third with no one out, AND the 3, 4, 5 hitters coming up... and didn't produce one run, which might be the first time all season the Angels had such a situation for the heart of the order and could not bring home that runner from third.

So yeah, just saying I take back what I said about getting any sort of break, as this was a win I clearly earned and was right on.
 

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4 runs in the 9th inning sounds like a nice "break" to me! Good call on that OVER. I liked it myself.
 

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Actually, I take back what I said about getting a "nice little break" in the top of the ninth of this Straily vs Williams over, as the Angels are pounding Balfour right now, helping the game go over significantly. In any case, I was also 100-percent right with Jerome Williams not even lasting four innings, and if anything, the under was lucky to last into the ninth inning, as the Angels blew numerous opportunities with runners in scoring position and less than two outs, most notably in the first inning when the Angels had first and third with no one out, AND the 3, 4, 5 hitters coming up... and didn't produce one run, which might be the first time all season the Angels had such a situation for the heart of the order and could not bring home that runner from third.

So yeah, just saying I take back what I said about getting any sort of break, as this was a win I clearly earned and was right on.

Haha, this comment is why I think others may be hostile towards you. You've made countless comments about 9th inning "bad breaks" and dominant closers giving up runs (equaling a "bad break" or "fluke"). Here we are where you got a nice break on your over bet, getting 4 runs in the 9th. You got 2 runs in the top of the 9th and reacted appropriately saying you got a nice break, then when balfour (who HAS been very very good since retaking the closer role in oakland) gives up runs to bring the total 2.5 runs over the posted total, you take it back and give yourself your "100-percent right" sentiment.

Come on man! All others ask, for the most part, is that you are consistent with your commentary, win or lose. Its apparent that you care very much about your craft, but its tough to see you whine when you lose (bad break or not) and get cocky when you win (generally correct or "lucky" break). Consistency in your reflection and honesty will gain you the respect you desperately crave.

P.S. I've seen you tout Addison Reed as great. He will definitely be great one day, but he hasn't been close to dominant this year. His ERA stands at 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.38. Yes, he's only blown 4 save chances. But he will, and has, given up plenty of runs before finally shutting the door. Right now, he is a closer that gets the job done, but clean innings are not a given.

Like I've said previously, I respect your dedication to totals. Good luck today and through the rest of the season.
 

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