Hello Everyone,
What I am about to ask is a seemingly easy question, that most of us are unable to answer. However, if you are able to answer such a question, you will be helping contribute to something I believe is going to change the whole industry.
Let me start off by introducing myself.
I am 20 years old and currently live in Las Vegas, Nevada in Veer Towers, connected to Aria Resort & Casino. I have been in the betting industry for five full years now and worked on four different islands in the Caribbean. For the past year I have been sportsbook manager and oddsmaker for eleven connected point of sale betting shops in The Bahamas. To this day, I am the youngest, licensed oddsmaker anyone is aware of. Although licensed and fully capable of taking action from anywhere around the world, we are primarily focused on building our action, which is exceeding our greatest expectations from people living on the island, people visiting the island, and most importantly, traffic from Atlantis Resort.
I have introduced a couple industry first including in-game surrender and per-point-payouts.
In-Game surrender allows any bettor during the first half to surrender his wager, much like a player would in a game of blackjack. In return for declaring his wager a loser before halftime, we refund half his wager.
Per-Point-Payouts is exactly what is sounds like. If you wish, you can place a PPP bet. For every point your bet wins by over the original line (side or total) you bet payout doubles. However, for every point your bet falls short, you pay back your bet amount plus the juice. The ultimate high risk, high reward, high action wager.
In my five years of betting everyday for a living, I have worked on both sides of the counter, and see it all. Due to my age multiple problems have occurred which have made people react differently to my opinions and advice during my handicapping days. I have literally received every type of threat possible from death to bank account theft, and every type of invitation possible from best man at a wedding to a crawfish fry in Louisiana. I have been as high and as low as a person can go multiple times, but have finally been able to legitimize myself using my own name and own status and things can only go up from here. I have a book currently in publishing telling all of my stories and strive to make it here in this city for many years to come.
Today was what I consider a big day. I had snuck into the Bellagio sportsbook prior to a dinner meeting with a real estate agent. After watching the Angels get shut down by the A’s, I was quick to find out the business meeting had turned into a make-shift interview. I was able to meet with a highly respected, and a highly decorated computer programmer in the betting industry. This guy knew more about computers, and more about literally everything electronic then I have ever thought possible. Since he has a big sports betting history and has heard my stories, he was interested in proposing a project to me.
His idea is based on Machine Learning. As he explained it to me, in today’s world, you are able to access and utilize more data than you ever have before. You can literally teach a computer to do any task you want it to. This to most seems like common knowledge. What shocked me is how he explained that you can teach a program to go back in time, and recognize data from, videos, player interviews, press conferences, game previews, game recaps and anything which would directly apply to the three “nulls” of sports betting, Situational, Motivational and Emotional. These three “nulls” applied to the correct judgement of perception are tools I use every day not only to set my lines, but place my wagers.
What makes this more mind blowing then I could ever imagine is that he began explaining to me how he is able to program a computer so it literally becomes a clone of myself and be able to see what I see. This was not just something to analyze data back in time and produce trends, and stats on various situations. This was training a computer to handicap games based on everyday observational, meaningful, concrete pieces of data, not just historical data.
So while “cloning” an oddsmaker with a love for underdogs in let down situations and playing teams regardless of spread when perception matches them and line moves against, would give you a program that has a five year history across all sports just shy of 60%, I took things a step further. What if you can break down and describe the feeling you have on your biggest most confident, successful wagers? You know the ones where your willing to put anything on the line? The ones where it doesn’t matter what the spread is, your taking it and winning that bet? For me I have had two this year, Alabama in week one vs. Michigan and San Diego on MNF.
We all know the feeling. The feeling when you see something and it just clicks and you know, that bet is going to be a winner.
My question for all of you is this,
“In words, broken down to the simplest form, name the factors, influences and things you looked for in your biggest and most confident, successful wagers that gave you the feeling of complete confidence.”
This can include seeing, reading, or hearing something on a specific website. Something you look for in the game prior, something you see in the players, something in the line movement, something in the betting patterns, something with the history of games, internal factors such as emotional, situational, statistical, anything at all that helped you come to that feeling. Although you can supply me with trends and situations (let downs, look ahead, play overs ect) They are not going to be used to generate numbers. I am not looking for trends, I am not looking for stats to see if certain spots were possible. I AM LOOKING FOR A HANDICAPPING MINDSET THAT REMAINS CONSTANT OVER SEVERAL YEARS.
If we can all contribute to this, the product that will be produced is seemingly perfect. The best thing about this concept and machine learning is that over time, the computer will surpass the greatest a human being can be. Think about playing checkers. We have all seen how a computer can learn to play checkers. The first time you play the computer in checkers, it won’t know how to do it. It will have guidelines, which are the rules, we can teach it to play the game. However, where humans can play 20-30 games a day, we can make the computer play 100,000,000,000 games against itself in a matter of hours or days, and have one of the most unbeatable checkers players on earth, that no human can compete with. Over time it learns the game, and becomes unbeatable.
Just like this project. We are teaching the computer to play a game. We are setting the rules with the guidelines for it to look for in past g Instead of playing games, we feed it with historical line data and box scores. The more scores and line history we feed into it, the better it gets at recognizing the bets. Once it well surpasses the level of a human being, it will be able to look at the lines available for the day and analyze all the information available on the internet in seconds, minutes to tell if any of these games fit what we felt on those most confident successful wagers, whether we know it or not, remember, its far above what a human can observe or project.
Sports betting is an industry based on tradition. There are few industries that do the amount of volume offshore betting does that remains based on fundamentals from decades and decades past. I am looking to change things. If you're willing to contribute, I would appreciate any input you can on answering the question above. The more people who contribute, the more education we can all get out of this, and the more guidelines we can have to apply to this program, the stronger results it can produce. Remember, these points must be broken down to the simplest form.
Not only will your input go towards helping the program, it will also provide you, and everyone with a great input on how they handicap games. You're really going to see your eyes open when you realize how often you step outside your own boundaries and bet on games you're not fully confident in. If you can put that feeling into words, please do.
Changing the world is a wild ride, here’s your chance to help.
Any questions, comments, let me know, this is going to get fun.
What I am about to ask is a seemingly easy question, that most of us are unable to answer. However, if you are able to answer such a question, you will be helping contribute to something I believe is going to change the whole industry.
Let me start off by introducing myself.
I am 20 years old and currently live in Las Vegas, Nevada in Veer Towers, connected to Aria Resort & Casino. I have been in the betting industry for five full years now and worked on four different islands in the Caribbean. For the past year I have been sportsbook manager and oddsmaker for eleven connected point of sale betting shops in The Bahamas. To this day, I am the youngest, licensed oddsmaker anyone is aware of. Although licensed and fully capable of taking action from anywhere around the world, we are primarily focused on building our action, which is exceeding our greatest expectations from people living on the island, people visiting the island, and most importantly, traffic from Atlantis Resort.
I have introduced a couple industry first including in-game surrender and per-point-payouts.
In-Game surrender allows any bettor during the first half to surrender his wager, much like a player would in a game of blackjack. In return for declaring his wager a loser before halftime, we refund half his wager.
Per-Point-Payouts is exactly what is sounds like. If you wish, you can place a PPP bet. For every point your bet wins by over the original line (side or total) you bet payout doubles. However, for every point your bet falls short, you pay back your bet amount plus the juice. The ultimate high risk, high reward, high action wager.
In my five years of betting everyday for a living, I have worked on both sides of the counter, and see it all. Due to my age multiple problems have occurred which have made people react differently to my opinions and advice during my handicapping days. I have literally received every type of threat possible from death to bank account theft, and every type of invitation possible from best man at a wedding to a crawfish fry in Louisiana. I have been as high and as low as a person can go multiple times, but have finally been able to legitimize myself using my own name and own status and things can only go up from here. I have a book currently in publishing telling all of my stories and strive to make it here in this city for many years to come.
Today was what I consider a big day. I had snuck into the Bellagio sportsbook prior to a dinner meeting with a real estate agent. After watching the Angels get shut down by the A’s, I was quick to find out the business meeting had turned into a make-shift interview. I was able to meet with a highly respected, and a highly decorated computer programmer in the betting industry. This guy knew more about computers, and more about literally everything electronic then I have ever thought possible. Since he has a big sports betting history and has heard my stories, he was interested in proposing a project to me.
His idea is based on Machine Learning. As he explained it to me, in today’s world, you are able to access and utilize more data than you ever have before. You can literally teach a computer to do any task you want it to. This to most seems like common knowledge. What shocked me is how he explained that you can teach a program to go back in time, and recognize data from, videos, player interviews, press conferences, game previews, game recaps and anything which would directly apply to the three “nulls” of sports betting, Situational, Motivational and Emotional. These three “nulls” applied to the correct judgement of perception are tools I use every day not only to set my lines, but place my wagers.
What makes this more mind blowing then I could ever imagine is that he began explaining to me how he is able to program a computer so it literally becomes a clone of myself and be able to see what I see. This was not just something to analyze data back in time and produce trends, and stats on various situations. This was training a computer to handicap games based on everyday observational, meaningful, concrete pieces of data, not just historical data.
So while “cloning” an oddsmaker with a love for underdogs in let down situations and playing teams regardless of spread when perception matches them and line moves against, would give you a program that has a five year history across all sports just shy of 60%, I took things a step further. What if you can break down and describe the feeling you have on your biggest most confident, successful wagers? You know the ones where your willing to put anything on the line? The ones where it doesn’t matter what the spread is, your taking it and winning that bet? For me I have had two this year, Alabama in week one vs. Michigan and San Diego on MNF.
We all know the feeling. The feeling when you see something and it just clicks and you know, that bet is going to be a winner.
My question for all of you is this,
“In words, broken down to the simplest form, name the factors, influences and things you looked for in your biggest and most confident, successful wagers that gave you the feeling of complete confidence.”
This can include seeing, reading, or hearing something on a specific website. Something you look for in the game prior, something you see in the players, something in the line movement, something in the betting patterns, something with the history of games, internal factors such as emotional, situational, statistical, anything at all that helped you come to that feeling. Although you can supply me with trends and situations (let downs, look ahead, play overs ect) They are not going to be used to generate numbers. I am not looking for trends, I am not looking for stats to see if certain spots were possible. I AM LOOKING FOR A HANDICAPPING MINDSET THAT REMAINS CONSTANT OVER SEVERAL YEARS.
If we can all contribute to this, the product that will be produced is seemingly perfect. The best thing about this concept and machine learning is that over time, the computer will surpass the greatest a human being can be. Think about playing checkers. We have all seen how a computer can learn to play checkers. The first time you play the computer in checkers, it won’t know how to do it. It will have guidelines, which are the rules, we can teach it to play the game. However, where humans can play 20-30 games a day, we can make the computer play 100,000,000,000 games against itself in a matter of hours or days, and have one of the most unbeatable checkers players on earth, that no human can compete with. Over time it learns the game, and becomes unbeatable.
Just like this project. We are teaching the computer to play a game. We are setting the rules with the guidelines for it to look for in past g Instead of playing games, we feed it with historical line data and box scores. The more scores and line history we feed into it, the better it gets at recognizing the bets. Once it well surpasses the level of a human being, it will be able to look at the lines available for the day and analyze all the information available on the internet in seconds, minutes to tell if any of these games fit what we felt on those most confident successful wagers, whether we know it or not, remember, its far above what a human can observe or project.
Sports betting is an industry based on tradition. There are few industries that do the amount of volume offshore betting does that remains based on fundamentals from decades and decades past. I am looking to change things. If you're willing to contribute, I would appreciate any input you can on answering the question above. The more people who contribute, the more education we can all get out of this, and the more guidelines we can have to apply to this program, the stronger results it can produce. Remember, these points must be broken down to the simplest form.
Not only will your input go towards helping the program, it will also provide you, and everyone with a great input on how they handicap games. You're really going to see your eyes open when you realize how often you step outside your own boundaries and bet on games you're not fully confident in. If you can put that feeling into words, please do.
Changing the world is a wild ride, here’s your chance to help.
Any questions, comments, let me know, this is going to get fun.
hno:
