The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 13, 2012 - YTD: 324-298-39 (Henderson Alvarez facing his IDOL tonight!)

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 324-298-39, -$1,507 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Very satisfying 2-0 day yesterday, even if both over/unders were for relatively small amounts, but just being able to do that, not to mention going 4-2 in my “Recommended, But I’m Not Betting” games (As usual) reassures me that I can still dominate while part of my mindset is focused on football. Today feels especially satisfying, as days with shortened schedules are the closest thing I get to a day off, allowing me to put more concentration and time on each individual pitching matchup. And on this shortened Thursday slate, there’s quite a bit of potential…


SeattleMariners @ Toronto Blue Jays (Best Bet) - Price TBD
Felix Hernandez vs Henderson Alvarez
UNDER 8

SINCE THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE SEASON, I have discussed in great detail how Henderson Alvarez’s idol in becoming a pitcher was - who else? - Felix Hernandez. In fact, I’ve pointed out on numerous occasions (Look it up if you don’t believe me) how Alvarez’ mannerisms, technique, and mechanics are all very similar to the great King Felix, something I continually stress in my main reasoning why I feel Alvarez, not to mention his above-average smarts, will eventually become a legitimate upper-rotation pitcher (Which, I admit, hasn’t quite happened just yet) in the big-leagues. Thus, in a rare, rare variable, we have an interesting scenario where one starting pitcher is set to toe the rubber in going toe-to-toe with the man he has admired more than anyone else in his life, and one who obviously has played the most influential role in turning him into the type of pitcher he has become. Human psychology, as I always preach, is the biggest factor in betting. Talent will usually be STEADY, but it’s human psychology that dictates what will be made of that talent on that very nice. Now put yourself in the mind of Henderson Alvarez, how are you feeling right now hours before this start? Nervous, which is understandable, but as soon as that first pitch is made to start the ballgame, you are most likely exuberant and amped for such a dream to take place. How many people get to live through something like this? Probably less than 0.5-percent. Alvarez should especially be energetic coming off his best performance in a month, and on the road in hostile Boston no less, so that gives him very crucial confidence, which he’ll need going up against his benchmark, as well as probably everyone else’s, for starting pitching.

Here’s another unique item concerning this variable: Felix Hernandez is well aware that he’s Henderson Alvarez’ idol. He’s known since last year, when Alvarez faced Michael Pineda (Who apparentlyis still trapped in 2011 along with Chris Carpenter and Henry Sosa) and these SeattleMariners, and it was at that point when Alvarez, according to Blue Jays’ underrated announcer Buck Martinez (LOVE HIM), talked extensively with Hernandez about how he’s always admired him very, very significantly. Hernandez, who is also from Venezuela, developed a bit of a friendship with him from that time on, helping spark what should be a very interesting teacher-versus-student matchup. Serving in the teacher role for this specific contest, there’s no way mentally, especially with his team barely trying to hang onto any sort of playoff hopes, Hernandez will fail in such a documented position. Also consider the fact that The King has been struggling out of nowhere, having given up four runs or more in each of his past two starts, and you know the Law of Averages will wave its unseen wand, with that happening to such an elite pitcher, and a prideful one will want to atone for it immediately. Hernandez has had success at the Rogers Centre in the past few years, and I expect the same to happen there tonight, as he ends his very uncharacteristic mini-slump, especially against his star pupil and a depleted offense.


St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers - Price TBD
Lance Lynn vs Josh Beckett
OVER 7.5

Always funny to come full-circle a year later. It was this exact Thursday night a year ago, at Chavez Ravine no less, when the Pirates battled the Dodgers, and ultimately won behind Ross Ohlendorf, to push them to 68 wins, which officially won me my second biggest bet ever made (Remember, as I’ve mentioned, my biggest was the 2009 Astros over 73 wins, which won by a mere game), that being the 2011 Pirates over 67 wins. I also had the under of that game (Ohlendorf vs Eveland), which pushed because of a real fluke bad break (Ohlendorf hit a three-run homer early in the game. C’mon mann!), but I point all this out because I always find it interesting when I re-visit the sight of a memorable over/under from exactly one year ago. This time, it’s the Cardinals coming to town with the surprising all-star pitcher Lance Lynn slated to take the mound, although in the second half, he’s been anything but an all-star, and it hasn’t even really been his fault! For whatever reason, Lynn has been shifted back-and-forth between the rotation and the bullpen, despite his sustained first-half success as a starter that propelled him to his first career berth on the all-star team. Well, for whatever reason, Lynn was demoted, and hasn’t started in almost a month (August 18, to be exact), which I think will be something that strongly throws him off his game. After all, it’s a very humbling and incredibly disappointing feeling when you get demoted in the manner that he was, especially after doing pretty much everything right in his tenure as a starter. I mean, the guy was an all-star! His ERA was even flirting throughout the 2-mark for almost the first three months of the year! In other words, he was nothing short of excellent, so when you have all of that hard work seemingly wiped out and pulled out from under you, it’s just very depressing. Being given a start after a month in the bullpen isn’t a cure for that at all, and I believe it will lead to him having an off outing, especially on the road against an offense that is stacked, but hasn’t been producing over the past week, and is thereby MORE than due to break out.

Unfortunately, the pitcher opposing Mr. Lynn on this very evening is the re-emerging Josh Beckett, who I predicted would re-gain some of his old form in a new setting and with a contender. He’s done just that, pumping out mostly quality stuff since being acquired by the Dodgers, so much so that his three starts with his new team have all been unders. His one start in Los Angeles, in fact, was a beauty when he tossed six-plus innings of one-run ball against the always-tough Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup. Luckily, we can still win this one in the form of 6-2/7-1, which means we can escape with a victory even if Beckett serves up a gem, but given his inconsistencies for most of the year, that is certainly not a given. Don’t get me wrong, as I feel Beckett will make great strides down the stretch in resembling the terrific pitcher he once was, but there’s just something in this matchup that leads me to believe it’s going over. I would feel a lot more comfortable if the line was exactly 7, as 5-2 is definitely possible (Otherwise I’d put more on the game), but this is a solid over bet nonetheless.


Other 9/13 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Zach McAllister vs Derek Holland OVER 9.5 - $33 for $30
No surprise to see the line for this game went down a FULL RUN overnight, which is extremely rare. But at 10.5, that line would be absolutely absurd for a not-bad-at-all pitching matchup like this one. Even so, I think Zach McAllister will continue to regress a bit, which certainly showed in his last start against Texas on a Sunday afternoon when they pounded him for seven runs in five innings. The trick here, though is that Derek Holland has the stuff to shut an entire lineup down on occasion, which is why it wouldn’t be wise to put a large amount on this game.


Luis Mendoza vs Liam Hendriks UNDER 9 - Price TBD
Sometimes, there are pitching matchups where I really think they were tailor-made for me (Ex. Bud Norris vs James McDonald a few months ago on a Friday night). Obviously, that’s not the case, but when you look at the guys assigned to combat one another, you’d think it was the case, given my pedigree with said starters. Here’s another example of that being such a case, as I’ve written in great detail before how I used to LOVE Luis Mendoza when he was a Ranger, even though he was god-awful back then. At the same time, I always thought he had potential, and it’s certainly showed since he randomly re-appeared in the big-leagues at the end of last year in Kansas City’s rotation for a brief audition, and he’s actually been pretty good in holding down a spot for just about all of this year. Then you have Liam Hendriks, one of my top five sleepers coming into the year, and while he’s been disappointing for the most part (He’s STILL searching for his first career win), he has shown in flashes that he can be a good, solid mid-rotation pitcher, if not more. The finest example of that would be the 1-0 duel he had against Felix Hernandez a couple of Mondays ago - scrub pitchers can’t throw nine innings of one-run ball, which is exactly what Hendriks did. Therefore, as long as he continues to possess that dynamic control of his (He barely walks anyone), I know the Australian will be on his way up to relevancy for sure.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
 
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Final $$ amount for my one 7 o'clock game...

Hernandez vs Alvarez UNDER 8 - $75 for $60

I'd also recommend it if you can only get it at 7.5. This is like a dream pitching matchup
 
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Damn, Adeinny Hechavarria isn't I the Toronto lineup tonight... he's as much a dead bat as there is in baseball these days. Him and Josh "Scrub" Vitters are the closest thing to guaranteed 0-fers
 
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Already posted amount for McAllister vs Holland. Meanwhile, my other 8 o'clock game:

Mendoza vs Hendriks UNDER 9 - $22 for $20
 
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Yeah that is extremely discouraging. That's not supposed to happen with Felix Hernandez, and all those runs in that inning came with two outs. Absolutely ridiculous and unfortunate
 

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Yeah, tough break on that one. Didnt see Felix blowing up like that
 
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The worst part is that EVERY GOD DAMN RUN allowed by Felix came with two outs. Actually, even worse than that is how during that five-run inning, it started harmlessly with two outs and a runner on first... then each two-out hit came with two strikes! Un-fucking-believable

First time something like that has happened in the epic career of Felix Hernandez. Absolute bullshit.

And as expected, I'm 100-percent right with Henderson Alvarez so I should've been rewarded for my bold work. Typical
 
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Final $$ amount on my final game tonight:

Lynn vs Beckett OVER 7.5 - $44 for $40

Warning: Win or Lose, it's going to be close, I feel. Hopefully I can nail this to get the extremely bad taste of that Felix stinko out of my mouth. It's crucial that I do
 

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