2012 MLB O/U Record: 325-301-39, -$1,622 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 1-3 day yesterday, which would not have been so bad if I wasn’t struck with the bad luck of Felix Hernandez having one of the worst outings of his career in my best bet under. The worst part is, in which I even detailed in 800 or so words, was how I primarily made that bet because of my very positive outlook concerning Henderson Alvarez… how many people in the country took that under with the sole reason of banking on Henderson Alvarez and his 5+ ERA? How many people even knew that Felix Hernandez was Alvarez’ longtime idol in becoming a Major League pitcher? So despite being 100-percent right in that regard (Alvarez threw a 7-inning gem, a brilliant bold prediction on my part), and knowing the incredible dynamic of said matchup inside and out, my reward was a “loss,” even though 99-percent of the people who had the over were depending on Alvarez to contribute most to it, and probably didn’t even realize the unique significance of Alvareza nd Hernandez facing each other, which was a rare instance in baseball history where one man faces another whom he grew up admiring more than anyone else in his life (Not to mention both are from Venezuela). Whatever. It was the right bet to make if you thought Alvarez was going to pitch beautifully, which he did, because you HAVE to assume that Felix would at least chip in with a normal, or even slightly less than normal, effort against a depleted offense missing their best player, and voila, it would have been an under 8 victory.The fact remains, though, that I was a deserved 1-2 on my other games so I wasn’t particular locked in last night anyway. Hopefully tonight, one of the final Friday nights of the season, can change my recent misfortunes…
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet) - $63 for $60
Justin Verlander vs Corey Kluber
OVER 7.5
It’s not often you have a matchup pitting arguably the best pitcher in the league against arguably the worst pitcher in the league, but this may be as close as we get as far as the American League is concerned. First off, it’s obviously tough securing an over when someone like Justin Verlander is involved, but while he was seemingly impossible to hit only a year ago, he has shown vulnerability at times in 2012, such as in his last start when he allowed six runs in six innings on the road against the Angels. Of course, Verlander always follows up a rare poor outing like that with at least a decent one his next time out, although that may not be such a certainty on this particular evening. After all, the Indians actually beat the 2011 AL Cy Young winner in Cleveland in late-July, so that intimidation factor about facing an elite ace like Verlander might not exist in the early portions of this game, as it so usually does when approaching someone of his highly-regarded caliber. In any case, I HIGHLY recommend betting Verlander in a “run-line” bet (-110, which is very good value, in my opinion. I’m taking it myself, and I rarely make non-over/under bets in baseball), as I just can’t see him losing at all, especially with his team desperately needing wins at this point to advance to the postseason. More than anything else, it has much to do with the starting pitcher he’s slated to square off against.
Ah, Corey Kluber. It’s extremely rare when I talk badly about a pitcher, as I always look for and stress the good in a hurler, but when it comes to this specific rookie, it’s just hard to find notable good traits in him that would lead me to believe he has any legitimate chance of holding down a rotation spot on a team next year or beyond. The term “average-at-best” would be a real compliment to the overall body of work Kluber is capable of, as I just think he’s nothing more than a scrub. In his defense, the right-hander has had a handful of good starts, most specifically when he shut down the vaunted Yankees line-up a few Fridays ago (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks), but then again, the New York Yankees have arguable the strangest tendency in sports when facing some unknown commodity with no success up to that point and falling tot hem (Sean O’Sullivan and Dylan Axelrod being two of many other instances) with ease. This time around, his assignment is set to deal with the hungry and angry Detroit Tigers’line-up, who honestly are single-handedly capable of going over the total by themselves, and that’s a sentiment I rarely express. When you take an over where one offense can legitimately pull that off as a team, then you know it’s a solid bet no matter what. At the end of the day, I see Kluber’s 5.26 ERA ballooning at least a bit more, and as long as we get a couple of runs from the Indians’offense, we’ll be in really good shape.
Other 9/14 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Cole Hamels vs Edgar Gonzalez UNDER 7.5 - $32 for $30
The Astros are historically bad against left-handed pitching this year, and are about to face one of the top five lefties in baseball who is trying to keep his team’s slim playoff hopes alive. Thus, you do the easy math. On the other side, Edgar Gonzalez has actually been phenomenal since randomly re-appearing in the bigs a few weeks ago, even defeating NL Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto this past Sunday. He doesn’t even have to be as excellent as he has been since getting his opportunity with Houston; all we need him to do is hang in there while Hamels does most of the work in producing this under.
Bronson Arroyo vs Jacob Turner UNDER 8.5 - $30 for $25
Last Friday, I took the Turner vs Strasburg under because I thought Jacob Turner would finally turn his season around and start living up to his relatively high potential he had in Detroit. I was absolutely 100-percent right, as he shut down the best team in baseball - on the road! - but I “lost” the under because Stephen Strasburg’s mind was anywhere but in the actual ballgame he was pitching in. This Friday, I will atone for that loss in this specific contest, as I think Turner can sustain his success from a week ago in front of his home fans, while Bronson Arroyo continues his very surprisingly success season which has seen him be amazingly consistent. I thought Arroyo’s decline would have happened months ago, but clearly, that was not the case.
CJ Wilson vs Bruce Chen UNDER 9 - $30 for $25
I’ll be honest: One of the main reasons I’m taking this under was because I caught it last night with the line being 9, which isn’t always the best reason to take an over/under (Remember, one of my main philosophies is to NOT let the line dictate your opinion on a game. You will have your most success in gambling if you let your opinion on the ACTUAL matchup dictate whether you take a bet or not, and that’s a fact). However, it just might be justified in this scenario. One, I love CJ Wilson - always have and always will, watching him grow as Texas Ranger, even though he went to my favorite team’s big rival - and I think this is a great spot for him to help pick up his team when they really need a win, and thus, pump out a quality start. Secondly, Bruce Chen has been very underrated over the years, and while he’s certainly taken a step back this year, I don’t think he’s as bad as his current mid-5’s ERA, which I think he’ll bring down before the season concludes.
Also Recommend, But Not Taking (Winning 60-percent of these):
Detwiler vs Medlen OVER 7
Iwakuma vs Darvish OVER 9 (Seattle has Darvish’s number, remember)
Niese vs Fiers UNDER (If you can get it at 8)
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 1-3 day yesterday, which would not have been so bad if I wasn’t struck with the bad luck of Felix Hernandez having one of the worst outings of his career in my best bet under. The worst part is, in which I even detailed in 800 or so words, was how I primarily made that bet because of my very positive outlook concerning Henderson Alvarez… how many people in the country took that under with the sole reason of banking on Henderson Alvarez and his 5+ ERA? How many people even knew that Felix Hernandez was Alvarez’ longtime idol in becoming a Major League pitcher? So despite being 100-percent right in that regard (Alvarez threw a 7-inning gem, a brilliant bold prediction on my part), and knowing the incredible dynamic of said matchup inside and out, my reward was a “loss,” even though 99-percent of the people who had the over were depending on Alvarez to contribute most to it, and probably didn’t even realize the unique significance of Alvareza nd Hernandez facing each other, which was a rare instance in baseball history where one man faces another whom he grew up admiring more than anyone else in his life (Not to mention both are from Venezuela). Whatever. It was the right bet to make if you thought Alvarez was going to pitch beautifully, which he did, because you HAVE to assume that Felix would at least chip in with a normal, or even slightly less than normal, effort against a depleted offense missing their best player, and voila, it would have been an under 8 victory.The fact remains, though, that I was a deserved 1-2 on my other games so I wasn’t particular locked in last night anyway. Hopefully tonight, one of the final Friday nights of the season, can change my recent misfortunes…
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (Best Bet) - $63 for $60
Justin Verlander vs Corey Kluber
OVER 7.5
It’s not often you have a matchup pitting arguably the best pitcher in the league against arguably the worst pitcher in the league, but this may be as close as we get as far as the American League is concerned. First off, it’s obviously tough securing an over when someone like Justin Verlander is involved, but while he was seemingly impossible to hit only a year ago, he has shown vulnerability at times in 2012, such as in his last start when he allowed six runs in six innings on the road against the Angels. Of course, Verlander always follows up a rare poor outing like that with at least a decent one his next time out, although that may not be such a certainty on this particular evening. After all, the Indians actually beat the 2011 AL Cy Young winner in Cleveland in late-July, so that intimidation factor about facing an elite ace like Verlander might not exist in the early portions of this game, as it so usually does when approaching someone of his highly-regarded caliber. In any case, I HIGHLY recommend betting Verlander in a “run-line” bet (-110, which is very good value, in my opinion. I’m taking it myself, and I rarely make non-over/under bets in baseball), as I just can’t see him losing at all, especially with his team desperately needing wins at this point to advance to the postseason. More than anything else, it has much to do with the starting pitcher he’s slated to square off against.
Ah, Corey Kluber. It’s extremely rare when I talk badly about a pitcher, as I always look for and stress the good in a hurler, but when it comes to this specific rookie, it’s just hard to find notable good traits in him that would lead me to believe he has any legitimate chance of holding down a rotation spot on a team next year or beyond. The term “average-at-best” would be a real compliment to the overall body of work Kluber is capable of, as I just think he’s nothing more than a scrub. In his defense, the right-hander has had a handful of good starts, most specifically when he shut down the vaunted Yankees line-up a few Fridays ago (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks), but then again, the New York Yankees have arguable the strangest tendency in sports when facing some unknown commodity with no success up to that point and falling tot hem (Sean O’Sullivan and Dylan Axelrod being two of many other instances) with ease. This time around, his assignment is set to deal with the hungry and angry Detroit Tigers’line-up, who honestly are single-handedly capable of going over the total by themselves, and that’s a sentiment I rarely express. When you take an over where one offense can legitimately pull that off as a team, then you know it’s a solid bet no matter what. At the end of the day, I see Kluber’s 5.26 ERA ballooning at least a bit more, and as long as we get a couple of runs from the Indians’offense, we’ll be in really good shape.
Other 9/14 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Cole Hamels vs Edgar Gonzalez UNDER 7.5 - $32 for $30
The Astros are historically bad against left-handed pitching this year, and are about to face one of the top five lefties in baseball who is trying to keep his team’s slim playoff hopes alive. Thus, you do the easy math. On the other side, Edgar Gonzalez has actually been phenomenal since randomly re-appearing in the bigs a few weeks ago, even defeating NL Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto this past Sunday. He doesn’t even have to be as excellent as he has been since getting his opportunity with Houston; all we need him to do is hang in there while Hamels does most of the work in producing this under.
Bronson Arroyo vs Jacob Turner UNDER 8.5 - $30 for $25
Last Friday, I took the Turner vs Strasburg under because I thought Jacob Turner would finally turn his season around and start living up to his relatively high potential he had in Detroit. I was absolutely 100-percent right, as he shut down the best team in baseball - on the road! - but I “lost” the under because Stephen Strasburg’s mind was anywhere but in the actual ballgame he was pitching in. This Friday, I will atone for that loss in this specific contest, as I think Turner can sustain his success from a week ago in front of his home fans, while Bronson Arroyo continues his very surprisingly success season which has seen him be amazingly consistent. I thought Arroyo’s decline would have happened months ago, but clearly, that was not the case.
CJ Wilson vs Bruce Chen UNDER 9 - $30 for $25
I’ll be honest: One of the main reasons I’m taking this under was because I caught it last night with the line being 9, which isn’t always the best reason to take an over/under (Remember, one of my main philosophies is to NOT let the line dictate your opinion on a game. You will have your most success in gambling if you let your opinion on the ACTUAL matchup dictate whether you take a bet or not, and that’s a fact). However, it just might be justified in this scenario. One, I love CJ Wilson - always have and always will, watching him grow as Texas Ranger, even though he went to my favorite team’s big rival - and I think this is a great spot for him to help pick up his team when they really need a win, and thus, pump out a quality start. Secondly, Bruce Chen has been very underrated over the years, and while he’s certainly taken a step back this year, I don’t think he’s as bad as his current mid-5’s ERA, which I think he’ll bring down before the season concludes.
Also Recommend, But Not Taking (Winning 60-percent of these):
Detwiler vs Medlen OVER 7
Iwakuma vs Darvish OVER 9 (Seattle has Darvish’s number, remember)
Niese vs Fiers UNDER (If you can get it at 8)
**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
