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Hot & Not

September 17, 2012

The postseason is rapidly approaching meaning teams still in it to win it are making those final pushes while teams with nothing left to fight for are either rolling over or trotting more of their younger talent out to the playing field. Here’s a look at what some of the best and worst teams did over the course of the last week against the closing baseball betting lines.

Money-Makers

Milwaukee Brewers (5-1, $363): The Brew Crew’s late season charge continued this past week after manager Ron Roenicke’s squad went out and swept the Wild Card leading Atlanta Braves at home before taking two of three from the woeful Mets. Ryan Braun has continued to rip the cover off the ball and is now the NL home run leader (40) after launching two more in Sunday’s series finale. Now two-games over the breakeven point, Milwaukee finds itself just 21/2-games out of the play-in Wild Card slot.

On The Docket: It’s once again do or die for Milwaukee this week with each of their next 10-games to be played away from the comfy confines of Miller Park in Pittsburgh, Washington, and Cincinnati. While the team sits a healthy 17-games over .500 as a host, it possesses a 28-43 overall mark on the road (-$1854) but has won 13 of its L/16 versus +.500 opposition.

San Diego Padres (5-1, $363): It truly is a shame that the Padres dug themselves into such a deep hole throughout the first-half of the season. Because of it, manager Bud Black’s squad realistically has no shot of qualifying for the second season with them being forced to leapfrog six other ball clubs in order to qualify. However, the building blocks look to be firmly in place for this franchise to compete for the foreseeable future, so look for SD to continue relishing its role of spoiler as it looks to claw even closer to .500.

On The Docket: The Padres will embark upon a six-game road trip starting Tuesday night in Arizona before wrapping up in San Francisco. Chase Headley and his mates have won 12 of their L/15 series openers, 19 of their L/26 overall, and split their 60 overall NL West tussles.

Oakland A’s (5-2, $346): We questioned the A’s and their abilities at September’s outset thinking they’d struggle after catapulting themselves back into the postseason picture by beating up on lesser opposition. However, after going into Anaheim and taking three of four from a Halos outfit that desperately needed that series win, call us believers! “The Swingin’ A’s” enter the last couple weeks of the regular season firing on all cylinders having only dropped one series in their last nine played. That in and of itself is commendable, but more importantly, Oakland is now the best overall bet in baseball having reeled their supporters in a whopping $3257 worth of profit on the year!

On The Docket: Baseball bettors will now truly get a feel for what the overall Wild Card leaders are all about over the next 10 days with each of their next three series set to go in Detroit, New York, and Texas – all possible second season entrants. Oakland’s won 22 of its L/30 on the road as well as five of its L/6 away from the Coliseum versus +.500 opposition.

Honorable Mentions: Baltimore Orioles (4-2, $280), Chicago Cubs (4-2, $241), San Francisco Giants (4-2, $201), Detroit Tigers (4-2, $166), New York Yankees (4-2, $142)

Money-Burners

Pittsburgh Pirates (1-5, -$458): After dropping nearly a nickel for its baseball betting backers last week, manager Clint Hurdle’s outfit managed to pile on another hefty tally to that wretched mark after managing just one win in the six games it played against the division rival Reds and Cubs this past week. This outfit has hemorrhaged betting losses throughout the second-half of the season, and now finds itself a couple more losses away from being in the red overall; hardly expected after this club was both in the division and Wild Card races just two months ago.

On The Docket: If the Buccos have any shot of still qualifying for the playoffs, they must hold serve at home against the Brewers before turning their attention to the road trip to Houston. That said, Pittsburgh has dropped 19 of its L/26 overall games played and fallen seven of the L/10 times it welcomed Milwaukee into PNC.

Tampa Bay Rays (1-5, -$446): Once a sexy pick to outlast everyone in the AL East just a couple weeks ago, the Rays are now the forgotten team after putting forth a truly pitiful effort when the exact opposite was needed in trips to Baltimore and the Bronx last week. After pulling out just one win, Tampa Bay sits six-games in back of Oakland and four behind the Orioles with only the Angels to jump. While still doable, manager Joe Maddon’s outfit must make hay over the next week at home to have any shot.

On The Docket: The first step to turning things around will come against Boston who the Rays have dropped seven of 12 against in 2012, and it will be followed up with a visit from Toronto who the Rays have flat out dominated winning 11 of the 15 previous quarrels; they’ve won five of six when hosting the rivalry.

St. Louis Cardinals (2-5, -$358): The second-half of the defending champs season has hardly gone as well as it did just a short season ago. It was around this time last year that the Redbirds were so red hot that they made the charge that allowed them to snag the Wild Card. This time around, they’re clinging on for dear life in hopes of holding onto the play-in slot. The Dodgers, Brewers, Pirates, Phillies, and D’Backs are all breathing down their collective neck, so any prolonged losing streak would certainly see them miss out on the opportunity of defending their title.

On The Docket: The Cardinals return home from a miserable West Coast road trip (2-5) to host the Astros before taking their final trip to Wrigley Field to battle the hated Cubs. They’ll then close out the roady with a trip to Houston which means each of the team’s next nine games will come against opponents that check in a combined 81-games under .500. Losing ball clubs are what the Redbirds have feasted upon all season long – they’re 12-2 their L/14 vs. sub .400 opposition.

Dishonorable Mentions: New York Mets (1-5, -$378), Minnesota Twins (2-5, -$314), Los Angeles Dodgers (2-4, -$247), Cleveland Indians (2-5, -$175), Philadelphia Phillies (4-3, -$117), Colorado Rockies (2-4, -$101)
 

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Diamond Trends - Monday

September 17, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Rockies are 9-0 since May 23, 2012 when playing a night game as a road dog of more than +140, with a total under 10 after allowing 6+ runs in a loss for a net profit of $1493.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Cubs are 0-9 OU since 2011 when it’s not the first game of the series after playing a night game after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $900 when playing the under.

STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Tigers are 0-8-2 OU since August 09, 2011 when Doug Fister starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Orioles are 12-1 (+2.8 rpg) since June 2005 in the first game of a road series when they are off a win in which they trailed at the end of the first inning.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

-- The Tigers are 8-0 since September 05, 2011 when Doug Fister starts after August for a net profit of $860.

-- The White Sox are 5-0 since May 30, 2012 when Jose Quintana starts after a quality start at home for a net profit of $592.
 

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Mets look to spoil Philly playoff push Monday

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (73-74)

at NEW YORK METS (66-80)


First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -110, New York +100, Total: 6½

As the Phillies have pushed their way back into Wild Card contention, the Mets will look to play spoiler and give Cy Young contender R.A. Dickey his N.L.-leading 19th win of the season.

The Phillies entered Houston on Thursday with a seven-game win streak, but dropped three of four to the Astros, the majors’ worst team (48-99). They’ll take on another slumping team in the Mets, who have lost eight of their past nine, surpassing three runs just twice in this nine-game span. But Dickey is the only pitcher who can compete with that sort of run support, sporting a 2.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 18-5 record in 29 starts this season. He has been just as good lately with a 1.72 ERA and 3-1 record in his past five starts. On Monday, he faces southpaw Cliff Lee, who has recovered from a poor start to develop a 5-7 record in 2012 on a 3.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has been particularly dominant lately in his past four starts (all Phillies wins), going 3-0 with an 0.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 23 K’s and just two walks in 27.1 innings. But the Mets appear poised to play spoiler here given their domination of the Phillies this season, having taken 10 of the 15 series games already in 2012. And as home underdogs with one of baseball’s best pitchers on the mound, they should be the play. Take NEW YORK to prevail in this one.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also favor the Mets:

Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last 10 games, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts. (56-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.7%, +42 units. Rating = 3*).

N.Y. METS are 28-8 (77.8%, +24.2 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 2 or less hits since 1997. The average score was N.Y. METS 5.0, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Cliff Lee earned his first win of 2012 against the Mets on July 4, snapping a 13-start personal winless streak to start the season. Overall, in seven career starts against the Mets, he has a 3-1 record (team 4-3) with a 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. And, by averaging 7.0 innings per start this year, he largely eliminates one of Philadelphia’s greatest weaknesses—its bullpen. Philly relievers have a 5.07 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road in 2012 with just 19 saves in 29 chances (66%). The bullpen has been much better this month though, sporting a 2.33 ERA in 38.2 September innings.

Like Lee, Dickey’s endurance is key to his success, as the knuckleballer is averaging 7.0 innings per start. He averages 7.2 innings per start at home, where he has a stellar 2.40 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and an 8-2 record. And with the Mets bullpen sporting a poor 4.69 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the season, it’s best that they pitch as little as possible. Given the Mets anemic offense, Dickey will have to throw a gem to win this one, but he has done that regularly in 2012. He has also had success against the Phils, sporting a 2.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in eight career starts against them, leading his team to three straight wins in the series with a 3.00 ERA and 6.0 K-to-BB ratio (18 K, 3 BB) in this span. The home underdogs are the choice here.
 

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Dunkel


Detroit at Chicago White Sox
The Tigers look to build on their 5-0 record in Doug Fister's last 5 starts against AL Central teams. Detroit is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 16.686; Miami (Eovaldi) 15.453
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 14.687; NY Mets (Dickey) 15.562
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-105); Over

Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Correia) 14.379; Cubs (Wood) 13.960
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); N/A

Game 957-958: Colorado at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 16.350; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.595
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+170); Over

Game 959-960: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Cook) 15.132; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 14.133
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+170); Over

Game 961-962: Baltimore at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.347; Seattle (Noesi) 14.247
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125); Under

Game 963-964: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 16.303; White Sox (Quintana) 14.871
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, September 17


Hot pitchers
-- Lee is 3-0, 1.32 in his last four starts. Dickey is 3-1, 1.72 in his last five.
-- Wood is 2-0, 0.66 in his last couple starts.
-- Chacin is 2-2, 2.84 in his last five starts.

-- Cobb is 2-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Tillman is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts, but has a sore elbow.
-- Fister is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Hudson is 1-2, 4.34 in his last three starts. LeBlanc is 0-3, 4.50 in his last three outings.
-- Correia is 2-3, 5.72 in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 0-3, 7.36 in his last four starts.

-- Cook is 0-5, 7.20 in his last six starts.
-- Noesi is 0-5, 5.59 in his last five starts, last of which was July 4.
-- Quintana is 1-2, 9.24 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won three in row, 10 of last 14 games. Miami won three of its last four home games.
-- Cubs won seven of their last nine games.
-- Giants won 12 of their last 18 games.

-- White Sox won their last three games, scoring five runs. Tigers won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost eight of their last nine games. Phillies just lost three of four games in Houston.
-- Pirates lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Rockies lost nine of their last eleven games.

-- Red Sox lost 14 of their last 18 games. Tampa Bay lost seven of ten.
-- Orioles lost three of their last four road games. Seattle lost three of its last four games overall.

Totals
-- Ten of last thirteen Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- 18 of last 27 Met games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Pirate-Cub games.
-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen San Francisco games.

-- Six of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Baltimore games.
-- Under is 19-4-1 in last 24 Detroit games.
 

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Monday, September 17


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Trend Report
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2:10 PM
DETROIT vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Detroit is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing Chi White Sox
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
Chi White Sox are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Miami
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

7:10 PM
BOSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY METS
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
NY Mets are 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Mets's last 23 games

8:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi Cubs's last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

10:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SEATTLE
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Baltimore is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

10:15 PM
COLORADO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Colorado's last 24 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Colorado
 

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Monday, September 17


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Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
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STREAKING

Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers (9-8, 3.49)


Fister allowed two runs over seven innings to pick up the win over the White Sox on Tuesday. The only two hits Fister gave up were a pair of solo homers. The right-hander has only surrendered five earned runs over his last two starts, picking up the win in two of those contests. He faces the White Sox again on Monday.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (5-7, 3.36)

Lee allowed one unearned run over seven strong innings in a 3-1 Phillies' win over the Marlins Wednesday. The left-hander has 18 strikeouts and two earned runs allowed in 20 1/3 September innings. He gets the ball against the Mets next.


SLUMPING

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (14-10, 3.32)


Bumgarner labored through 4 1/3 innings Tuesday, allowing five runs to the Rockies last time out. The lefty has yielded at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts and has watched his ERA balloon from 2.83 on August 25 to 3.32 following his latest poor effort. He draws the same Colorado squad in his next start.

Aaron Cook, Boston Red Sox (3-10, 5.18)

Cook yielded three earned runs in five innings of work in a loss to the Yankees Wednesday. The righty has been tabbed with losses in five of his last six starts and takes the bump against the Rays on Monday
 

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Monday, September 17


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Rounding the bases: The best bets in the bigs
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Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in major league baseball.

Hot team: Milwaukee Brewers
Last week: 5-1
Season record: 74-72
Upcoming schedule: at Pirates, at Nationals

Skinny: The Brewers have won 20 of their 26 games to shoot up the NL standings and challenge for a playoff spot. Reigning league MVP Ryan Braun belted a pair of homers Sunday versus the Mets to hit reach the 40-home run plateau for the first time in his career.

Cold team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Last week: 1-5
Season record: 73-72
Upcoming schedule: at Cubs, vs. Brewers, at Astros

Skinny: The Pirates are in a free fall, dropping eight of their last nine contests. Surprisingly, Pittsburgh is still within striking distance of a wild-card spot and can make a run if it can find a way to turn things around.

Over team: Colorado Rockies
Last week: 5-1
Season O/U record: 73-67-5
Upcoming schedule: at Giants, vs. Diamondbacks

Skinny: Colorado played over the total in five of its six games this week against San Francisco and San Diego. The Rockies have one of the better offenses in the league, but rank dead last in the bigs in ERA, making them a popular over choice for bettors down the stretch.

Under team: Boston Red Sox
Last week: 5-1
Season O/U record: 71-70-6
Upcoming schedule: at Rays, vs. Orioles

Skinny: The Red Sox played under the total in five of six games last week against the Yankees and Blue Jays. Boston’s lineup is loaded with inexperienced call-ups and its offense has struggled as a result.
 

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Monday, September 17


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Five MLB teams running out of gas in September
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September is the most exciting time of the baseball season. The tension rises, pressure becomes a daily part of the lives of players and the wear and tear of the vigorous MLB schedule begins to take its toll.

Here are five teams, which are a combined 22-39-7 over/under this month, that seem to be running out of offensive firepower down the stretch:

Statistics used are from games scheduled between Sept. 1- Sept. 15.

Cincinnati Reds

September offensive stats: 36 runs scored, 10 home runs, .221 team batting average
September record: 6-7, 1-10-3 over/under
Up next: at Cubs, vs. Dodgers, vs. Milwaukee

Cincinnati has a comfortable 11-game lead in the NL Central heading into action Sunday, but its offense is cooling off. The team has averaged 2.77 runs per game in September, going 6-7 over that stretch. The Reds’ 36 runs scored and .221 team batting average are the lowest totals in the bigs this month.

Atlanta Braves

September offensive stats: 44 runs scored, 10 home runs, .237 team batting average
September record: 9-5, 4-10 over/under
Up next: at Marlins, at Phillies, vs. Marlins

Atlanta slugger Jason Heyward belted his team-leading 27th homer on Saturday, but the Braves are last in the majors with a .231 average with runners in scoring position this season. Only one year removed from a late-September collapse, you have to wonder if the pressure of making the playoffs is taking its toll once again. The good news for bettors is Atlanta continues to be a profitable under bet this season (63-78-5 O/U).

Oakland Athletics

September offensive stats: 55 runs scored, 18 home runs, .225 team batting average
September record: 10-4, 6-7-1 over/under
Up next: At Tigers, at Yankees, at Rangers

The Athletics could use all the room they can get with a 10-game road trip through Detroit, New York and Texas beginning Tuesday. Oakland trails the Rangers by two games in the AL West and has a 2.5-game advantage over the Angels for a wild card spot. The A’s continue to hit for power, but their team batting average is plummeting this month, putting even more strain on their young pitching staff.

Toronto Blue Jays

September offensive stats: 54 runs scored, 11 home runs, .221 team batting average
September record: 5-8, 7-5-1 over/under
Up next: at Yankees, at Rays, at Orioles

It’s been a nightmare season on the injury front for the Blue Jays. Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia and slugger Jose Bautista have missed significant time with injuries and the team has struggled to put runs on the board without them. Toronto has called up many of its top prospects for the remainder of the season and that’s reflected in its weak offensive statistics this month.

Los Angeles Dodgers

September offensive stats: 37 runs scored, 10 home runs, .227 team batting average
September record: 6-7, 4-7-2 over/under
Up next: at Nationals, at Reds, at Padres

The Dodgers have fallen way behind the Giants in the NL West and are now in a dogfight for a wild card spot. The blockbuster trade with Boston that brought Adrian Gonzalez to L.A. has failed to spark the offense. Slugger Matt Kemp went 0-for-4 Saturday and is 3-for-32 in his last eight games.
 

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Long Sheet

Monday, September 17


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (84 - 63) at MIAMI (65 - 82) - 7:10 PM
TIM HUDSON (R) vs. WADE LEBLANC (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-16 (-18.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
MIAMI is 322-355 (+46.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
ATLANTA is 84-63 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 41-31 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 37-23 (+12.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
ATLANTA is 82-62 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ATLANTA is 29-21 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 53-31 (+16.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ATLANTA is 29-13 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
HUDSON is 18-7 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 243-145 (+46.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 147-81 (+32.6 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 65-82 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 14-29 (-13.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 34-38 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MIAMI is 64-80 (-18.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MIAMI is 22-27 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
MIAMI is 43-56 (-14.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MIAMI is 71-98 (-27.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 32-48 (-13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 9-3 (+6.0 Units) against MIAMI this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.4 Units)

TIM HUDSON vs. MIAMI since 1997
HUDSON is 13-4 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 2.81 and a WHIP of 1.204.
His team's record is 18-6 (+9.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-13. (-5.0 units)

WADE LEBLANC vs. ATLANTA since 1997
LEBLANC is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.61 and a WHIP of 1.452.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

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PHILADELPHIA (73 - 74) at NY METS (66 - 80) - 7:10 PM
CLIFF LEE (L) vs. R.A. DICKEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 73-74 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-27 (-13.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-32 (-13.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 73-71 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 52-49 (-7.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 32-40 (-15.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LEE is 11-15 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
LEE is 5-11 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
LEE is 3-9 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 22-16 (+8.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
DICKEY is 20-9 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
DICKEY is 15-6 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DICKEY is 19-9 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 66-80 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 30-41 (-18.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
NY METS are 5-17 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in home games in September games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 264-274 (-78.3 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
NY METS are 62-78 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY METS are 36-53 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
NY METS are 19-33 (-12.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 15-25 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
NY METS are 5-10 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 10-5 (+8.5 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
12 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+8.8 Units)

CLIFF LEE vs. NY METS since 1997
LEE is 3-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.042.
His team's record is 4-3 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-2. (+3.0 units)

R.A. DICKEY vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
DICKEY is 3-3 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (73 - 72) at CHICAGO CUBS (58 - 88) - 8:05 PM
KEVIN CORREIA (R) vs. TRAVIS WOOD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 3-11 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 47-107 (-36.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 17-23 (-13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 24-16 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 72-72 (+1.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 72-72 (+1.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 80-81 (+12.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CORREIA is 27-23 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 16-10 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 8-2 (+8.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 15-10 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 59-46 (+27.3 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
CORREIA is 10-4 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 58-88 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 670-627 (-141.1 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 98-134 (-37.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 58-88 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 33-50 (-20.2 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 912-996 (-176.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 81-123 (-39.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 132-166 (-51.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 8-7 (+4.1 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-1.1 Units)

KEVIN CORREIA vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
CORREIA is 4-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.556.
His team's record is 6-4 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-4. (+1.9 units)

TRAVIS WOOD vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
WOOD is 2-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.292.
His team's record is 2-3 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (58 - 87) at SAN FRANCISCO (83 - 63) - 10:15 PM
JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. MADISON BUMGARNER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 58-87 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 93-142 (-37.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 53-78 (-28.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 58-87 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 13-29 (-15.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
COLORADO is 2-14 (-12.5 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more this season.
COLORADO is 53-87 (-25.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 21-48 (-20.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHACIN is 17-24 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 17-24 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 83-63 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 166-102 (+61.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 77-52 (+16.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 83-63 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 52-33 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 39-24 (+13.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 52-32 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-4 (+4.1 Units) against COLORADO this season
9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.7 Units)

JHOULYS CHACIN vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
CHACIN is 3-4 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.328.
His team's record is 3-5 (-2.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-3. (+1.8 units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. COLORADO since 1997
BUMGARNER is 4-3 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 1.233.
His team's record is 7-3 (+4.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-5. (-1.4 units)
 

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BOSTON (66 - 81) at TAMPA BAY (78 - 68) - 7:10 PM
AARON COOK (R) vs. ALEX COBB (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 66-81 (-30.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 11-30 (-28.5 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 23-34 (-17.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 44-57 (-25.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 40-60 (-31.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 35-46 (-21.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BOSTON is 38-49 (-16.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 30-44 (-16.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
COOK is 9-23 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 82-58 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 467-559 (+22.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 72-44 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 49-29 (+17.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-5 (+1.6 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

AARON COOK vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COOK is 1-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 6.63 and a WHIP of 1.421.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

ALEX COBB vs. BOSTON since 1997
COBB is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (82 - 64) at SEATTLE (70 - 77) - 10:10 PM
CHRIS TILLMAN (R) vs. HECTOR NOESI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 70-77 (+6.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 65-69 (+6.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SEATTLE is 47-50 (+5.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 82-64 (+32.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 40-32 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 25-19 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 75-56 (+30.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 53-50 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 58-49 (+18.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 46-35 (+17.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 53-43 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 107-164 (-43.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-58 (-23.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 5-1 (+4.1 Units) against SEATTLE this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

CHRIS TILLMAN vs. SEATTLE since 1997
TILLMAN is 3-0 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 0.83 and a WHIP of 0.739.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-3. (-3.1 units)

HECTOR NOESI vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
NOESI is 0-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (77 - 68) at CHI WHITE SOX (79 - 66) - 2:10 PM
DOUG FISTER (R) vs. JOSE QUINTANA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 77-68 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 7-14 (-9.8 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
DETROIT is 34-40 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 73-65 (-13.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 7-13 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 79-66 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 28-12 (+15.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 19-6 (+10.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 30-19 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 57-45 (+9.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 593-605 (+41.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
DETROIT is 85-46 (+22.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 75-48 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 78-76 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 64-71 (-18.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 78-76 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 12-5 (+6.3 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.2 Units)

DOUG FISTER vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
FISTER is 1-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.274.
His team's record is 2-4 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.7 units)

JOSE QUINTANA vs. DETROIT since 1997
QUINTANA is 1-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 1.17 and a WHIP of 1.173.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, September 17


National League

Atlanta at Miami, 7:10 ET

Hudson: 29-10 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175
LeBlanc: Miami 9-20 SU at home off a loss by 1 run

Philadelphia at NY Mets, 7:10 ET MLB
Lee: 3-9 TSR pitching off a team loss
Dickey: 9-3 TSR as an underdog

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 ET
Correia: 29-11 TSR as a favorite
Wood: 2-10 TSR at home in the second half of the season

Colorado at San Francisco, 10:15 ET
Chacin: Colorado 2-14 SU after allowing 10+ runs
Bumgarner: San Francisco 29-13 SU after scoring 2 runs or less


American League

Boston at Tampa Bay, 7:10 ET
MLB
Cook: Boston 6-19 SU off a loss by 4+ runs
Cobb: Tampa Bay 9-1 SU after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

Baltiomre at Seattle, 10:10 ET
Tillman: Baltimore 16-9 SU away with a line of -125 to +125
Noesi: Seattle 9-22 SU at home off 3+ road games


Write-In Game

Detroit at Chicago White Sox, 2:10 ET

Fister: Detroit 7-13 SU away vs. left-handed starters
Quintana: White Sox 9-0 SU off a division win by 6+ runs
 

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Monday's betting tips: McDonald removed from Pirates' rotation

Weather watch

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: Forecasts are calling for a 60 percent chance of showers at Wrigley Field. Winds will be blowing in from left field at 14 mph.

Betting news and notes

-Atlanta hurler Tim Hudson has hit his first mini-skid of the season, going 1-2 in three September starts with a 4.34 ERA. But the 37-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA against the Marlins (+122) this season.

-James McDonald has been booted from the Pittsburgh Pirates' starting rotation. The righty is 3-5 with a 7.08 ERA in the second half of the season, after going 9-3 with a 2.37 ERA in the first half. Right-hander Kyle McPherson will take McDonald's place Wednesday against Milwaukee.

-Rays’ starter Alex Cobb's ERA is nearly two runs lower at home (3.34) than on the road (5.19). Tampa Bay is a -185 home fave versus the Red Sox on Monday.

-Mariners projected starter Hector Noesi is making his first major-league start since July 4, when he lost to the Orioles while allowing four runs and seven hits in five innings. The loss was his eighth straight and he was demoted to Triple-A Tacoma. He has made two September relief appearances since returning to the majors. Seattle is a +115 underdog when it hosts Baltimore on Monday.

-The Falcons (-3) have fared well at home during Mike Smith's tenure, posting a 26-6 mark since 2008. The Broncos have won eight of the last 12 regular-season meetings - including six of the last seven contests.
 

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Been taking a beating the last 2 out of 3 days but still swimming above the Century marks in units.

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/16/12 12-*18-*0 40.00% -*4075 Detail
09/15/12 14-*12-*0 53.85% +*1210 Detail
09/14/12 9-*19-*0 32.14% -*5985 Detail
09/13/12 8-*8-*0 50.00% +*380 Detail
09/12/12 18-*10-*0 64.29% +*4015 Detail
09/11/12 11-*19-*0 36.67% -*4225 Detail
09/10/12 11-*8-*1 57.89% +*1535 Detail
09/09/12 16-*11-*1 59.26% +*3980 Detail
09/08/12 9-*7-*2 56.25% +*895 Detail
09/07/12 15-*14-*1 51.72% +*215 Detail
09/06/12 5-*5-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/12 9-*5-*2 64.29% +*1985 Detail
09/04/12 17-*9-*3 65.38% +*5270 Detail
09/03/12 17-*11-*0 60.71% +*3655 Detail
09/02/12 18-*11-*1 62.07% +*3840 Detail
09/01/12 14-*13-*2 51.85% -*735 Detail

Totals 203-*180-*13 53.00% +11860

Monday, September 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 2:10 PM ET Detroit -119 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 9 500

Boston - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -185 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8.5 500

Atlanta - 7:10 PM ET Miami +122 500
Miami - Under 7.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -103 500
NY Mets - Over 6.5 500

Pittsburgh - 8:05 PM ET Pittsburgh -107 500
Chi. Cubs -

Baltimore - 10:10 PM ET Baltimore -115 500
Seattle - Under 7.5 500

Colorado - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -199 500
San Francisco - Over 7 500
 

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