The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 20, 2012 - YTD: 336-311-40

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2012 MLB O/U Record: 336-311-40, -$1,641 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Yesterday started promising with a best bet victory, but then I forced two small overs from the night slate, despite not having a real grasp on most of those games, which took away most of my winnings from the Alvarez vs Pettitte under. I feel like for most of this month, I just haven’t been my usual self in terms of passionately being all over on top of every baseball over/under of every day as much as I’ve been these past five months. Is it possible I’m finally gassed and my mind has automatically been focusing on football? Could be, since, unlike last year, I *have* to be all over football while I’m writing about it and have people tailing me and my 15-10-1 record, as opposed to last year when I didn’t really concentrate on NFL in September, allowing me to have my most profitable month for baseball. Whatever it is, I’m the only one who can control it, and with these last couple of weeks winding down, I need to fix that. Let’s see how this Thursday goes…


Tom Milone vs Anibal Sanchez UNDER 8.5 - $36 for $30
Yes, I know he more-so goes by “Tommy Milone” this year (I like to live in 2011 when I was at my best, and he was simply “Tom Milone” as a member of the Nationals last year), and I know there’s a big discrepancy between his home and road splits (Being MUCH better within the cozy confines of the Oakland Coliseum, obviously), but overall, he’s just a real solid pitcher with a very bright future who will eventually figure out how to fix his road woes. It’d be awfully tough to just suddenly undo that against a tough Tigers’line-up, but he has made steps in the right direction, only allowing two runs over his past two road starts (In Seattle and Cleveland), and in addition, he does have a quality start this year against Detroit under his belt, when he held them to one run in seven innings back in mid-May. So, considering their struggles against left-handed pitching (Most notably Prince Fielder), it is doable to get another fine outing out of Milone, even on the road, which is all we’ll need with the line where it’s at. The same can be said for Anibal Sanchez, who has finally settled in comfortably in his new Tiger uniform, as after struggling in his first few starts with the club, he’s tossed five straight quality starts. Against an Oakland team that is suddenly reeling, he absolutely has the potential to extend that streak to six, but even if he doesn’t, there’s room for error. I think the worst-case scenario for this game is 7-2, and if that’s the case, the odds are definitely in our favor of securing this under, especially with that extra half-run. It’s a fine bet to get your day started.


Note: This is NOT my best bet today. My best bet will be from the 7 o’clock slate… which I’ll post a little later with a detailed write-up so make sure you check my article again for that. In the meantime, I do have other afternoon over/unders that I’m on board with:


Other 9/20 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Johnny Cueto vs Jason Berken OVER 8.5 -$25 for $20
The wind is blowing 13 MPH out to right field, and with a true scrub like Jason Berken involved, the Reds’ offense is capable of single-handedly winning this over. Hell, I’m still shocked that Berken has somehow found himself back into a Major League rotation, after flopping miserably for years with Baltimore not too long ago, and it showed in his first start back when the struggling Pirates pounded him. Johnny Cueto is a sure-fire NL Cy Young candidate, but hasn’t been his consistent first-half dominant self every time out since the all-star break, meaning there’spotential that even he could get tagged for a couple of runs. Reds ML and Reds RL are also very good bets - probably worthy of a bigger bet than the over - but that’s not my department. The over is worth at least a small wager.


May Take, But Still Thinking:
Bud Norris vs Jamie Garcia UNDER 8
This decision has EVERYTHING to do with my boy and my favorite pitcher in all of baseball, who I’ve probably written tens of thousands of words about this year, that being Bud Norris. Here’s the issue: He’s coming off the flu, which he had the past few days, and since he’s a very mentally-oriented pitcher (As in he lets things snowball if one thing doesn’t go his way, even if it’s out of his control), and that’s something that could easily affect him and derail his mindset, which is especially crucial for a guy like Norris. The main thing to like heading into this start, though, as I’ve written about a few times this year, is how he OWNS the Cardinals (7-4, 2.61 ERA in 13 career starts opposing them), and it’s been like that ever since he made his first Major League start back in ’09 - literally! It was against St.Louis whom he recorded a dominant starting debut, but if he’s not healthy, that could all go out the window. I’m not worried at all about Jaime Garcia, as he finally overcame his well-documented road problems in his last start to enjoy a pretty good outing against the Dodgers, which should make him feel real good mentally, but that doesn’t even really matter for this start. He’s home today, where he easily excels a lot more to the point where sometimes he’s just unhittable. It might be a mental thing, which we’ll gladly take as it pertains to this specific home start. Garcia is also a southpaw, which I love considering the Astros are absolutely dreadful against left-handed pitching… they hit .208 vs lefties, which is easily dead-last in baseball. The second-to-last team? They hit over .220. The Astros are far from the norm against southpaws, perhaps even of historical proportions.


**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
 

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why is it that your biggest bet is almost always a half run in your favor? just something I noticed and was wondering
 
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why is it that your biggest bet is almost always a half run in your favor? just something I noticed and was wondering

I don't know. Why not ask a linesmaker who makes the line?

I scavenger the lines as soon as they open, and track them consistently for hours leading up to first pitch. Thus, when you've been doing this literally *every single day* for years now, you get a sense of what Vegas is thinking, what they're trying to bait people into, and when they feel a line is higher or lower than it should be before making a change to it. In the case of Milone vs Sanchez (Which is NOT my best bet, by the way. My best bet is one of the 7 o'clock games, which I'll post a bit later with a write-up, as I mentioned), obviously it's not going to jump up to 9, being that it's a matchup between two real quality pitchers, and since I caught it at 8.5, I pulled the trigger on it right away because the *ONLY* potential in line movement for that game would be going down to 8. So why wait till it goes to 8 when I can jump on it at 8.5?

It's a sense. You study lines every day and you anticipate what the lines are going to be before they come out and what they eventually will be altered to as the day progresses leading up to gametime. That's all it is.
 

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Lineups in Chicago look like cat feces. You still like the over? Cueto is slumping but could get his act together vs cubs despite it being windy
 
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Lineups in Chicago look like cat feces. You still like the over? Cueto is slumping but could get his act together vs cubs despite it being windy

Yeesh, you are absolutely right. Those lineups look horrendous, especially Cincinnati's. Wonder how Johnny Cueto feels about that when he's vying for his 19th win and ultimately the Cy Young. Maybe he's kind of annoyed by it and is off his game?

I might cancel this over. I'll post within the hour if that's the case
 

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Basically figured that. Was wondering more if you got these lines hours ago or are getting them right before you post
 

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why is it that your biggest bet is almost always a half run in your favor? just something I noticed and was wondering

Nice of you to make an account to flame. This line was 8.5 at more places than not.
 
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Gonna bite on Astros/Cardinals in this manner:

First, I'm going to parlay $10 on OVER 8 with Cardinals ML... the only way this game goes over is if Bud Norris' flu re-surfaces and gets rocked. That way, I'll win back most of what I could lose on the under. But ultimately, I'm settling on:

Norris vs Garcia UNDER 8 - $36 for $30
 

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I would like how long it takes you to post a play with a similar writeup hesst lol
 
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Would also like to add that if Bud Norris was completely healthy, this is probably a TRIPLE-DIGIT bet, but unfortunately, that's not the case, and considering I know Bud Norris better than anyone in the country (I probably have written more about him this year than any Astros beat writer, not to mention tracked him as close as any other pitcher since he debuted, since he is my favorite starter), it's probably best to limit the bet while he has flu-like symptoms lingering over him.

At the same time, if Bud was 100-percent entering this start, I would probably guarantee that the line would be 7.5. Vegas has clearly kept it at 8 all day and night to try and sucker people into the under who have no clue about Bud's flu (And that he's as much a mentally-oriented pitcher as anyone else in the game). Doesn't mean we're going to lose, as Bud's track record versus St. Louis combined with the fact that he's had the flu for a few days and MAY be much better today could lead to a good start, especially since he's one of the most prideful pitchers, too. That's obvious if you've ever watched him or heard one of his interviews; he's very passionate about winning and being successful, which is why I don't doubt for a second that he he'll be very good again over a full season, even when the Astros move to the heavy-hitting American League
 
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Well there's an absolute gift of a run in the first inning of Norris vs Garcia... full count, bases loaded, and Jaime Garcia throws an absolutely perfect pitch that catches the low inside corner, yet Larry Vanover called it a ball... I mean, there's so many things wrong with that. One, if a rookie scrub like Brandon Laird, who is basically guaranteed to not even be in baseball next year, takes a pitch like that, you call it a strike. Period. Not even a question. Two, when the pitcher is someone like Jaime Garcia, who's becoming a veteran, you absolutely call it a strike. Larry Vanover is a veteran umpire who should know better than that.
 
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Good start in the bottom half, at least, as Brandon Barnes just made arguably the CATCH OF THE YEAR in robbing Jon Jay on a full extension diving catch in deep center. You'll see it all over highlight reels tonight and throughout the rest of the year, there's no way any of Mike Trout's special catches are better than what I just saw, but since it was Mike Trout, one of his catches will probably be labeled "best of the year" in center. In any case, a huge lift for Bud Norris that should make him feel good mentally, even if still feeling those flu-like symptoms.
 
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And just as I write that, Astros mis-play a pop-up in right field. Sure enough, with a mental-oriented pitcher like Bud Norris, the next batter hits a 3-run bomb. Very unfortunate how these things usually seem to snowball for Norris, but that's his one weakness.
 
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CANCELLING my Cueto vs Berken over 8.5 bet by betting the opposite side for an even amount... no point in trusting so many unknown players, some of which are making their first start of the year today, as it's too much of a gamble, even with as bad as Jason Berken is.

Watch the over hit anyway 7-2
 

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And just as I write that, Astros mis-play a pop-up in right field. Sure enough, with a mental-oriented pitcher like Bud Norris, the next batter hits a 3-run bomb. Very unfortunate how these things usually seem to snowball for Norris, but that's his one weakness.

dude you're too nervous, take a beer :thumbsup:
 

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actually my right up for the cards/astros would have been basically the same thing
 
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Unfortunate turn of events all around:

Anibal Sanchez was dominating (One earned run allowed through his first 5 IP), and then suddenly with two outs in the 6th, the A's blow it open, mostly because Austin Jackson, a gold glove-caliber fielder, mis-played a line-drive that was hit right to him, as he came in for it for some reason, and it went just over his head as a result, directly costing us the under and leading to a couple of runs. Unreal.

In the Norris vs Garcia matchup, the Astros have been gift-wrapped two of their three runs, one because of a clear mistake by umpire Larry Vanover, and the other coming with two outs on a soft ground ball up the middle that was about to an easy out, but clicked off the second base bag, allowing Justin Maxwell to score from second instead of it being the third out.

Just one of those days, it looks like. At least I got out of that Cueto vs Berken over, and I thank moocow for alerting me of the horrendous lineups with plenty of time to think about it, which gets me out of what looks like will be a loss.

Best bet is still yet to come
 

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