Betting UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Jones might be the champ, but bettors should be very cautious
y John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
The road to UFC 152 has been fraught by the most unusual set of circumstances to precede any event in UFC history. After all of the hurdles, however, Jon Jones will finally face an opponent, former light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort, on Saturday night. In addition to the light heavyweight belt being on the line, UFC 152 will feature the introduction of the flyweight title in the finale of the four-man tournament, as Demetrious Johnson takes on Joseph Benavidez. Since there'll be no shortage of narrative and analysis given the events heading into the main event, we're here to take a more technical look at the statistical matchups to find out where the best bets can be found this weekend.
<center>Main event: Five rounds
</center><center>Jon Jones (minus-800) versus Vitor Belfort (plus-550)
</center>
Though his opponent might have changed several times, one thing has remained constant for Jones: No matter who he was going to face, he would be a massive underdog against the seemingly unbeatable light heavyweight champ. But at upwards of 6-to-1 odds on Belfort, there are plenty of reasons to examine whether Jones can actually live up to those gaudy numbers.
The first thing to note about Belfort is the incredible speed and power that he has exhibited since blowing away the MMA world at the age of 19. Since then, Belfort's surge has led to 14 knockouts in 21 career wins. What all fight fans are well aware of is that Jones has never been knocked out, nor has he been in serious danger in his 12 bouts. Jones gains most of his advantage in his ability to stay off his back, with a flawless 100 percent takedown defense. And while Belfort most likely doesn't possess the ability to be the first to get a takedown against Jones, he probably won't need to, as he'll be purely concentrating on landing a knockout within the first few minutes.
Despite his previous success in catching opponents with his fast hands, Belfort will still have a problem, as Jones even possesses an advantage striking, using his 85-inch reach to land 3.9 strikes per minute (SLpM) compared to Belfort's 1.39. And with Belfort maintaining a takedown defense of only 50 percent, it's only a matter of time before Jones is able to put him on his back and capitalize on the position the way he has so successfully done time and time again. Making a bet on Jones is hardly worth the piddling return, but it doesn't seem Belfort warrants a bet, either, even with the high odds, given that his only chance would be a single punch in the first round or two. And if we know anything about Jones' coach, Greg Jackson, Jones won't be getting close to a standing exchange with Belfort until well into the later rounds, after Belfort has tired himself out.
Add to this the fact that Belfort is taking this fight on short notice and you can consider this one a definite stay away.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
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<center>Joseph Benavidez (-300) vs. Demetrious Johnson (+250)
</center>
The coronation of an inaugural flyweight champion should be a lot closer fight than the skewed odds would indicate. Though both fighters have suffered previous title losses to Dominick Cruz at bantamweight, Benavidez enters the flyweight title fight as a large 3-to-1 favorite against Johnson. The two fighters have only one other loss apiece in their pasts, both coming by decision. With very few historical differences, it'd be hard to think that either fighter would have the significant advantage heading into this fight. A look into the stats only makes more of a case for Johnson having a decent shot at becoming the division's first champion.
While most bettors will be paying attention to Benavidez's impressive record of closing out 75 percent of his wins definitively, what they will be overlooking is Johnson's ability to control fights with his above-average wrestling skills. Johnson lands 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 54 percent rate. With Benavidez defending just 48 percent of takedowns, Johnson shouldn't have a problem getting the fight to the ground at some point. Benavidez, however, does have eight submission wins in 18 fights and a 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes average, which could potentially be a threat to Johnson in top position. Johnson, though, shouldn't be in too much trouble, as he has never been submitted in his 18-fight career. And not only can Johnson get Benavidez to the ground, but can also hold his own striking, maintaining a higher SLpM rate at 3.11 to Joseph's 2.84.
At nearly 3-to-1 odds, it's very possible that Johnson could take a decision on points, as he has all of the skills necessary to get Benavidez to the ground and outwork him there, while successfully avoiding submission attempts for the duration of the five rounds.
Insider's value pick: Johnson
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Given his reputation for trash talking and stirring up controversy in the lead up to fights, what fans might not know is Bisping is one of the most disciplined and well-rounded technical strikers in MMA. Though Bisping seldom delivers spectacular knockouts, he also seldom gets knocked out himself.
With a very high 4.59 SLpM rate compared to Stann's 3.08, Bisping should be able to get the best of Stann standing with his polished ability on the feet. And to make the underdog's chances even worse in this fight, Stann isn't likely to get this fight to the ground. Bisping holds a very good 62 percent takedown defense and Stann barely ever tries to take opponents down, averaging a rate of 0.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. With exchanges being mostly one-sided in favor of Bisping, this fight will most likely come down to whether Stann will be able to knock Bisping out at some point in the three rounds. And with most fans having a distinct memory of Bisping suffering a brutal highlight knockout to Dan Henderson at UFC 100, most would be surprised to know that the Henderson KO was the only non-decision loss that Bisping has ever suffered in his career.
Though Stann has won nine of his 12 victories by knockout, it's still reasonable to believe that his ability to win this fight by KO is far less than the current odds are indicating. With Bisping as the almost surefire technical favorite in this one, consider minus-170 a great value.
Insider value pick: Bisping
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Setting aside an upset loss to the heavy-handed Melvin Guillard, Dunham has continuously looked like one of the most promising fighters in the lightweight division. Going against Grant, he should maintain a win streak on his climb back to the top of the weight class, since he holds an advantage over Grant in nearly every area.
Dunham far exceeds Grant's ability in striking, landing 4.11 strikes per minute compared to Grant's 2.48. This isn't surprising, however, as Grant is known for his submission skills by which he has attained 72 percent of his victories. Against Dunham, however, Grant will have problems in both getting him to the ground and securing a submission. For one, Grant holds a not-so-impressive 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes rate and Dunham has a history of defending 78 percent of takedowns attempted against him.
Also, Dunham has never been submitted in his 15-fight career, so even if Grant is able to get him to the ground, Dunham should be able to successfully defend the submission attack. To make matters worse for Grant, Dunham also has a strong submission game of his own, with nearly half of his wins coming in this manner, and a very active submission rate of 2.07 per 15 minutes.
Given Dunham's dominance in nearly every area, and his ability to choose to keep this fight standing if it benefits him, consider him a sure thing here at minus-280.
Insider's value pick: Dunham
Jones might be the champ, but bettors should be very cautious
y John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
The road to UFC 152 has been fraught by the most unusual set of circumstances to precede any event in UFC history. After all of the hurdles, however, Jon Jones will finally face an opponent, former light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort, on Saturday night. In addition to the light heavyweight belt being on the line, UFC 152 will feature the introduction of the flyweight title in the finale of the four-man tournament, as Demetrious Johnson takes on Joseph Benavidez. Since there'll be no shortage of narrative and analysis given the events heading into the main event, we're here to take a more technical look at the statistical matchups to find out where the best bets can be found this weekend.
<center>Main event: Five rounds
</center><center>Jon Jones (minus-800) versus Vitor Belfort (plus-550)
</center>
Though his opponent might have changed several times, one thing has remained constant for Jones: No matter who he was going to face, he would be a massive underdog against the seemingly unbeatable light heavyweight champ. But at upwards of 6-to-1 odds on Belfort, there are plenty of reasons to examine whether Jones can actually live up to those gaudy numbers.
The first thing to note about Belfort is the incredible speed and power that he has exhibited since blowing away the MMA world at the age of 19. Since then, Belfort's surge has led to 14 knockouts in 21 career wins. What all fight fans are well aware of is that Jones has never been knocked out, nor has he been in serious danger in his 12 bouts. Jones gains most of his advantage in his ability to stay off his back, with a flawless 100 percent takedown defense. And while Belfort most likely doesn't possess the ability to be the first to get a takedown against Jones, he probably won't need to, as he'll be purely concentrating on landing a knockout within the first few minutes.
Despite his previous success in catching opponents with his fast hands, Belfort will still have a problem, as Jones even possesses an advantage striking, using his 85-inch reach to land 3.9 strikes per minute (SLpM) compared to Belfort's 1.39. And with Belfort maintaining a takedown defense of only 50 percent, it's only a matter of time before Jones is able to put him on his back and capitalize on the position the way he has so successfully done time and time again. Making a bet on Jones is hardly worth the piddling return, but it doesn't seem Belfort warrants a bet, either, even with the high odds, given that his only chance would be a single punch in the first round or two. And if we know anything about Jones' coach, Greg Jackson, Jones won't be getting close to a standing exchange with Belfort until well into the later rounds, after Belfort has tired himself out.
Add to this the fact that Belfort is taking this fight on short notice and you can consider this one a definite stay away.
Insider's value pick: Stay away
___________________________________________
<center>Co-main event: Five rounds</center>
<center>Joseph Benavidez (-300) vs. Demetrious Johnson (+250)
</center>
The coronation of an inaugural flyweight champion should be a lot closer fight than the skewed odds would indicate. Though both fighters have suffered previous title losses to Dominick Cruz at bantamweight, Benavidez enters the flyweight title fight as a large 3-to-1 favorite against Johnson. The two fighters have only one other loss apiece in their pasts, both coming by decision. With very few historical differences, it'd be hard to think that either fighter would have the significant advantage heading into this fight. A look into the stats only makes more of a case for Johnson having a decent shot at becoming the division's first champion.
While most bettors will be paying attention to Benavidez's impressive record of closing out 75 percent of his wins definitively, what they will be overlooking is Johnson's ability to control fights with his above-average wrestling skills. Johnson lands 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 54 percent rate. With Benavidez defending just 48 percent of takedowns, Johnson shouldn't have a problem getting the fight to the ground at some point. Benavidez, however, does have eight submission wins in 18 fights and a 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes average, which could potentially be a threat to Johnson in top position. Johnson, though, shouldn't be in too much trouble, as he has never been submitted in his 18-fight career. And not only can Johnson get Benavidez to the ground, but can also hold his own striking, maintaining a higher SLpM rate at 3.11 to Joseph's 2.84.
At nearly 3-to-1 odds, it's very possible that Johnson could take a decision on points, as he has all of the skills necessary to get Benavidez to the ground and outwork him there, while successfully avoiding submission attempts for the duration of the five rounds.
Insider's value pick: Johnson
<hr>
<center> Michael Bisping (minus-170) vs. Brian Stann (plus-150)</center>
Given his reputation for trash talking and stirring up controversy in the lead up to fights, what fans might not know is Bisping is one of the most disciplined and well-rounded technical strikers in MMA. Though Bisping seldom delivers spectacular knockouts, he also seldom gets knocked out himself.
With a very high 4.59 SLpM rate compared to Stann's 3.08, Bisping should be able to get the best of Stann standing with his polished ability on the feet. And to make the underdog's chances even worse in this fight, Stann isn't likely to get this fight to the ground. Bisping holds a very good 62 percent takedown defense and Stann barely ever tries to take opponents down, averaging a rate of 0.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. With exchanges being mostly one-sided in favor of Bisping, this fight will most likely come down to whether Stann will be able to knock Bisping out at some point in the three rounds. And with most fans having a distinct memory of Bisping suffering a brutal highlight knockout to Dan Henderson at UFC 100, most would be surprised to know that the Henderson KO was the only non-decision loss that Bisping has ever suffered in his career.
Though Stann has won nine of his 12 victories by knockout, it's still reasonable to believe that his ability to win this fight by KO is far less than the current odds are indicating. With Bisping as the almost surefire technical favorite in this one, consider minus-170 a great value.
Insider value pick: Bisping
<hr>
<center> Evan Dunham (minus-280) vs. TJ Grant (plus-200)</center>
Setting aside an upset loss to the heavy-handed Melvin Guillard, Dunham has continuously looked like one of the most promising fighters in the lightweight division. Going against Grant, he should maintain a win streak on his climb back to the top of the weight class, since he holds an advantage over Grant in nearly every area.
Dunham far exceeds Grant's ability in striking, landing 4.11 strikes per minute compared to Grant's 2.48. This isn't surprising, however, as Grant is known for his submission skills by which he has attained 72 percent of his victories. Against Dunham, however, Grant will have problems in both getting him to the ground and securing a submission. For one, Grant holds a not-so-impressive 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes rate and Dunham has a history of defending 78 percent of takedowns attempted against him.
Also, Dunham has never been submitted in his 15-fight career, so even if Grant is able to get him to the ground, Dunham should be able to successfully defend the submission attack. To make matters worse for Grant, Dunham also has a strong submission game of his own, with nearly half of his wins coming in this manner, and a very active submission rate of 2.07 per 15 minutes.
Given Dunham's dominance in nearly every area, and his ability to choose to keep this fight standing if it benefits him, consider him a sure thing here at minus-280.
Insider's value pick: Dunham
