Upset Watch: Week 3
Replacement refs could help Cardinals top Eagles
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Beginning this week, a small change: For a game to be featured in Upset Watch, the line needs to be at least three points.
Upset Watch: Arizona (+4) vs. Philadelphia
Six teams still remain undefeated in the NFL, but two of them haven't been particularly convincing. And it just so happens that those two teams play each other this weekend.
The Eagles have won their first two games by just one point apiece, despite a turnover margin of minus-3. The Cardinals have won by a combined six points, despite averaging just 4.2 yards per play on offense. Yet one of these teams will walk out of Sunday's matchup at 3-0, and that's a pretty good place to be. Roughly 80 percent of teams that start 3-0 will end up in the postseason. The question, naturally, is which team will that be?
The biggest story of this game, other than the fact that both teams are undefeated, is that Kevin Kolb finally gets a shot at the team that traded him away. Unfortunately for Kolb, it's a colossal mismatch. The Cardinals are dead last in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA ratings after two weeks, while the Eagles' defense ranks second behind only Houston. For the Cardinals to win this game, they are going to need some blessings from the field position gods.
The good news for Arizona? For the first two weeks of the season, one of the field position gods has been named "Michael Vick." Vick has six interceptions so far this season. The Eagles have turned the ball over on one-third of their offensive drives. That's a big reason the average drive against Philadelphia's defense has started just 66.5 yards away from the goal line. (Only Oakland has had a worse average starting position on defense.)
Vick is going to have to deal with an Arizona defense that harassed Tom Brady like a rabid pack of paparazzi. The Cardinals will be coming up the middle against a Philadelphia line that just lost starting center Jason Kelce for the year. The replacement, Dallas Reynolds, has been hanging around the Eagles' practice squad for three years and never saw a regular-season snap until two weeks ago.
In last week's Upset Watch, I wrote about how Vick had always been one of the top quarterbacks under pressure, but was horrible when the Browns pressured him in Week 1. It didn't get much better last week, although the Ravens got to him less often. So far this season, Vick's Total QBR is a horrid 5.8 when under pressure, but 77.9 otherwise.
Another determining factor in this game is going to be how each defensive coordinator handles the placement of his best cornerback. While the Jets take their shutdown corner and move him around the field to shadow the opponent's best weapon, both the Eagles and Cardinals prefer to line up their cornerbacks on specific sides and leave them there no matter where the other team puts its receivers. That may not be the right strategy this week for either team, because each team's best receiver plays on the side opposite the opponent's shutdown corner.
Nnamdi Asomugha plays on the offensive left side, but Larry Fitzgerald will probably spend more time lined up on the right side. (So far this year, he has 10 targets on the right, four on the left, and two in the middle.) That will leave the Eagles depending on the gambling Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and their questionable safeties to shut down Fitzgerald while Asomugha spends his time covering the much less formidable Andre Roberts.
This issue is even stronger for the Arizona defense. The Cardinals started to use Patrick Peterson as a shutdown corner last year even though he still wasn't quite experienced enough for the job. It's only two games, but it is clear that he's matured and fully grown into the role in Year 2. Peterson lines up on the offensive right, so normally he would spend most of the game covering Jeremy Maclin. However, Maclin will miss the game with a hip injury, and undrafted rookie Damaris Johnson will start instead. That seems like a waste of Peterson's talents, especially with DeSean Jackson sitting on the other side of the field. Combine Peterson with a deep safety and throwing to Jackson would be pretty much impossible, and veteran William Gay should be able to handle Johnson. (Or, better yet, since Gay's best years came as a nickelback in Pittsburgh, put him inside on Jason Avant and put Greg Toler on the rookie.)
The Cardinals may have one more secret weapon to keep this game close: the replacement refs. Two weeks is not a huge sample size, but so far this year, home-field advantage has been much greater than usual, and that goes along with the storyline that the replacement refs are a bit intimidated by the NFL environment and the home crowds. Officials are calling 23 percent more penalties on visiting teams, compared to 7 percent normally. Home teams are 19-13 against the spread, beating it by an average of 5.3 points per game. (Thanks to both Jason Lisk and Chase Stuart for this research.)
Cover Watch: Minnesota (+7) vs. San Francisco
The Vikings are 1-1 with two close games against unimpressive competition. They beat Jacksonville by three, then lost to Indianapolis by three. Yet surprisingly, closer play-by-play analysis suggests that the Vikings have been among the league's better teams so far this season.
Minnesota ranks fourth in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings through two weeks. The offense is doing it with steady, unspectacular gains. The Vikings have gained 5.9 yards per play, and 49 percent of their offensive plays have met our definition of success (45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down). The Vikings are also looking good on defense, allowing just 4.7 yards per play with just 40 percent success by opponents. The league averages are currently 5.6 yards and 43 percent success, so the Vikings are better than average on both sides of the ball.
The Vikings' weakness so far has been converting shorter third-down situations; the team is only 3-of-9 on third down with 1-3 yards to go, including two Adrian Peterson rushes that were stuffed for a loss. The Vikings also need to figure out how to cause some turnovers. They have no interceptions, and the only fumble by the opposition was an aborted snap by Jacksonville, more a lucky break for the Vikings than anything their defense did on its own.
The big caveat with these numbers is opponent strength. The Football Outsiders ratings don't incorporate strength of schedule until after Week 4, and Jacksonville and Indianapolis are nobody's idea of a hard start. The Vikings also happen to be running into a team that's playing even better than they are. Through two weeks, San Francisco actually ranks as our No. 1 offense and third in our DVOA overall ratings. Still, these two teams have been closer than you think through two weeks, and may be closer still if you consider the data on home-field advantage mentioned above.
Replacement refs could help Cardinals top Eagles
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Upset Watch appears every Thursday this season for ESPN Insider, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Beginning this week, a small change: For a game to be featured in Upset Watch, the line needs to be at least three points.
Upset Watch: Arizona (+4) vs. Philadelphia
Six teams still remain undefeated in the NFL, but two of them haven't been particularly convincing. And it just so happens that those two teams play each other this weekend.
The Eagles have won their first two games by just one point apiece, despite a turnover margin of minus-3. The Cardinals have won by a combined six points, despite averaging just 4.2 yards per play on offense. Yet one of these teams will walk out of Sunday's matchup at 3-0, and that's a pretty good place to be. Roughly 80 percent of teams that start 3-0 will end up in the postseason. The question, naturally, is which team will that be?
The biggest story of this game, other than the fact that both teams are undefeated, is that Kevin Kolb finally gets a shot at the team that traded him away. Unfortunately for Kolb, it's a colossal mismatch. The Cardinals are dead last in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA ratings after two weeks, while the Eagles' defense ranks second behind only Houston. For the Cardinals to win this game, they are going to need some blessings from the field position gods.
The good news for Arizona? For the first two weeks of the season, one of the field position gods has been named "Michael Vick." Vick has six interceptions so far this season. The Eagles have turned the ball over on one-third of their offensive drives. That's a big reason the average drive against Philadelphia's defense has started just 66.5 yards away from the goal line. (Only Oakland has had a worse average starting position on defense.)
Vick is going to have to deal with an Arizona defense that harassed Tom Brady like a rabid pack of paparazzi. The Cardinals will be coming up the middle against a Philadelphia line that just lost starting center Jason Kelce for the year. The replacement, Dallas Reynolds, has been hanging around the Eagles' practice squad for three years and never saw a regular-season snap until two weeks ago.
In last week's Upset Watch, I wrote about how Vick had always been one of the top quarterbacks under pressure, but was horrible when the Browns pressured him in Week 1. It didn't get much better last week, although the Ravens got to him less often. So far this season, Vick's Total QBR is a horrid 5.8 when under pressure, but 77.9 otherwise.
Another determining factor in this game is going to be how each defensive coordinator handles the placement of his best cornerback. While the Jets take their shutdown corner and move him around the field to shadow the opponent's best weapon, both the Eagles and Cardinals prefer to line up their cornerbacks on specific sides and leave them there no matter where the other team puts its receivers. That may not be the right strategy this week for either team, because each team's best receiver plays on the side opposite the opponent's shutdown corner.
Nnamdi Asomugha plays on the offensive left side, but Larry Fitzgerald will probably spend more time lined up on the right side. (So far this year, he has 10 targets on the right, four on the left, and two in the middle.) That will leave the Eagles depending on the gambling Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and their questionable safeties to shut down Fitzgerald while Asomugha spends his time covering the much less formidable Andre Roberts.
This issue is even stronger for the Arizona defense. The Cardinals started to use Patrick Peterson as a shutdown corner last year even though he still wasn't quite experienced enough for the job. It's only two games, but it is clear that he's matured and fully grown into the role in Year 2. Peterson lines up on the offensive right, so normally he would spend most of the game covering Jeremy Maclin. However, Maclin will miss the game with a hip injury, and undrafted rookie Damaris Johnson will start instead. That seems like a waste of Peterson's talents, especially with DeSean Jackson sitting on the other side of the field. Combine Peterson with a deep safety and throwing to Jackson would be pretty much impossible, and veteran William Gay should be able to handle Johnson. (Or, better yet, since Gay's best years came as a nickelback in Pittsburgh, put him inside on Jason Avant and put Greg Toler on the rookie.)
The Cardinals may have one more secret weapon to keep this game close: the replacement refs. Two weeks is not a huge sample size, but so far this year, home-field advantage has been much greater than usual, and that goes along with the storyline that the replacement refs are a bit intimidated by the NFL environment and the home crowds. Officials are calling 23 percent more penalties on visiting teams, compared to 7 percent normally. Home teams are 19-13 against the spread, beating it by an average of 5.3 points per game. (Thanks to both Jason Lisk and Chase Stuart for this research.)
Cover Watch: Minnesota (+7) vs. San Francisco
The Vikings are 1-1 with two close games against unimpressive competition. They beat Jacksonville by three, then lost to Indianapolis by three. Yet surprisingly, closer play-by-play analysis suggests that the Vikings have been among the league's better teams so far this season.
Minnesota ranks fourth in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings through two weeks. The offense is doing it with steady, unspectacular gains. The Vikings have gained 5.9 yards per play, and 49 percent of their offensive plays have met our definition of success (45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third down). The Vikings are also looking good on defense, allowing just 4.7 yards per play with just 40 percent success by opponents. The league averages are currently 5.6 yards and 43 percent success, so the Vikings are better than average on both sides of the ball.
The Vikings' weakness so far has been converting shorter third-down situations; the team is only 3-of-9 on third down with 1-3 yards to go, including two Adrian Peterson rushes that were stuffed for a loss. The Vikings also need to figure out how to cause some turnovers. They have no interceptions, and the only fumble by the opposition was an aborted snap by Jacksonville, more a lucky break for the Vikings than anything their defense did on its own.
The big caveat with these numbers is opponent strength. The Football Outsiders ratings don't incorporate strength of schedule until after Week 4, and Jacksonville and Indianapolis are nobody's idea of a hard start. The Vikings also happen to be running into a team that's playing even better than they are. Through two weeks, San Francisco actually ranks as our No. 1 offense and third in our DVOA overall ratings. Still, these two teams have been closer than you think through two weeks, and may be closer still if you consider the data on home-field advantage mentioned above.
