The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 22, 2012 - YTD: 338-315-41

Search
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
2012 MLB O/U Record: 338-315-41, -$1,773 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

1-2-1 day that could have been an even day had I not received an awful fluke bad beat in Carpenter vs Volstad under 9, although luckily, it ended up as a push instead of a loss. In any case, I was 1-2 with my night over/unders, which is unacceptable on any given night. Need some kind of day to re-spark my run with the season winding down so I hope it comes on this second-to-last Saturday of the year...


Mark Buehrle vs RA Dickey UNDER 7 - $37 for $35
Simply put, I expect a good ol' fashioned Saturday afternoon pitcher's duel at Citi Field today. On one side, you have NL Cy Young candidate RA Dickey going for the Mets in making his fifth start of the year opposing the Marlins, and that's intriguing because he's been absolutely dominant against them in the prior four assignments. For the year, Dickey owns a microscopic 1.16 ERA and 0.87 WHIP versus Miami, while being a perfect 4-0. He's been especially unhittable against them over the last two outings, occurring within the past two months, in which he has two complete games, including a shutout as recent as Aug 31. Considering his chances for the Cy Young, you can't think that Dickey will waste this precious opportunity of boosting his resume for the honor, and when you take into account the fact that Miami sees no other knuckle-baller during the season, how can they suddenly make adjustments to start hitting Dickey significantly ? That seems like too tough a task to actually happen, thus leaving it all on Dickey's shoulders, which is good to bet on given his track record opposing the Marlins this year, and his desire for the most prestigious award a pitcher can win. Mark Buehrle is obviously no slouch either, and has had success against the Mets this year for the most part (3.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in three starts). I actually envision him potentially beating Dickey, which would mean he has to pump out a quality start as well. I can't really see this one going north of 5-2, thus making this a solid under to start your day with.



**Will Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Would Also Recommend, But Not Taking, from the 1 o'clock slate:

Blackley vs Nova OVER 9 (Love Nova, which is why I'm not taking it. Blackley overdue for some kind of beatdown)
Wainwright vs Wood UNDER 8
Wolf vs Cook OVER 9.5
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? IS THIS SHIT REALLY GONNA HAPPEN THREE DAYS IN A ROW?

100-percent right on Buehrle vs Dickey under 7, as it was 4-0 going into the 9th, with Dickey about to close it out in the top half. So naturally, because I have the under, what do you think happened? 3-run bomb by .198-HITTING JOHN FUCKING BUCK... and now all I can do is push. Un-Fucking-Real

Three days in a row this shit happens. And how many times has something like this happened in MY favor of an over ALL year? MAYBE three. Maybe. Yet it's happened a few dozen times against me all season.

Typical Bullshit
 

New member
Joined
Sep 8, 2012
Messages
37
Tokens
maybe you should just start capping the first 5, because when you play the full game, the 9th inning counts ;)
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Oh, and naturally, it looks like I'm going to be a perfect 3-0 on my "Recommended, But Not Betting On" games (Winning over 60-percent of these), which is just cruel.

The Over/Under Gods are beginning to toy with me again with these bad beats, which is just ridiculous. There's absolutely nothing you can do when everything you did with a game was right, and you're not being rewarded with a win. Luckily Buehrle vs Dickey ended up being a push, but come on, it's a bad beat like that that would hurt someone MAYBE once a week, if even that much, yet it's bitten me three days in a row (Buchholz vs Price under Thursday night, Volstad vs Carpenter under yesterday afternoon) and cost me a $160 swing. Just add it to the collection of my country-leading fluke breaks
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
maybe you should just start capping the first 5, because when you play the full game, the 9th inning counts ;)

I was suggested this by a few people in the beginning of the year when this shit was happening even more constantly through April, May, and the first half of June, especially when said people said they were only taking the 5-inning under variations of my full-game unders and winning more than 60-percent of the time... I'll respond with the same sentiment that I replied to them back then: I'm not changing my style of betting when I was so successful with it last year, especially this late in the year when I haven't missed a single day doing my dear full-game MLB Over/Unders. I'm not letting fluke bad luck direct me in another direction, especially when I'm this close to the finish line, albeit with an unsuccessful season. Just have to keep grinding through it, but this is painful re-living first-half 2012 memories. Ugh
 

New member
Joined
Feb 12, 2009
Messages
4,368
Tokens
I mentioned it back then going by your writeups you cap the starting pitchers and not the bullpens so first five would be more ideal. Mets bullpen is notoriously bad altho a 3 run shot in the 9th is a pretty bad beat regardless. Better luck next time Cat
 

Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2007
Messages
12,352
Tokens
had this been 6.5 cats, i wouldve been on the UNDER.. however, Buehrle is solid and dickey, well hes a gem... think vegas wanted under action on the 7.. when i checked this morning it was 90% to the under... which is why i went with the over.. got lucky in the 9th.. however i think that should've happened earlier in the game ... as i assumed vegas was expecting a 5-4, 6-5 win either way
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
Not even in the mood to do any more detailed write-ups today but here's the rest of my card for tonight:


Brandon Morrow vs Matt Moore UNDER 7 - $52 for $45
The Blue Jays can breathe a sigh of relief, as Brandon Morrow appears to be returning to pre-injury form when he was actually legitimately looking like one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. At that point, Morrow possessed an ERA less than 3, while maintaining a very good strikeout rate that surely would have led him to finishing in the top five in strikeouts when all would be said and done. Coming off a performance that saw him toss six shutout innings against Boston, it is reasonable to believe that Morrow has re-harnessed his command and velocity, which could allow him to produce some of his trademark dominant outings from the first half of the season over these last couple of weeks. Matt Moore, meanwhile, has fallen off a bit from his truly remarkable summer, but he's overcome rough patches before (Such as said dominant summer following his pre-all star break struggles), and he's talented enough to engage in a duel with anyone on any given night. In addition, he's a full-run better in home starts then on the road, which is something else that might fuel him to getting back on track on this particular evening.

Other 9/22 MLB Over/Unders I'm Taking:
Jose Quintana vs Dan Haren OVER 8 - $25 for $20
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
had this been 6.5 cats, i wouldve been on the UNDER.. however, Buehrle is solid and dickey, well hes a gem... think vegas wanted under action on the 7.. when i checked this morning it was 90% to the under... which is why i went with the over.. got lucky in the 9th.. however i think that should've happened earlier in the game ... as i assumed vegas was expecting a 5-4, 6-5 win either way

Oh absolutely, BMM. You are 100-percent right in your assumption that Vegas was baiting people into the under (I was thinking that would be 6.5 also before I saw the line). However, they've been wrong plenty of times in such scenarios, and this was clearly a scenario they were 100-percent wrong, considering the Mets bullpen didn't even get involved until the middle of the 9th, with Dickey on to close out a potential complete game. Vegas could not have been anymore wrong, yet they were let off the hook with a fluke break
 

Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2007
Messages
12,352
Tokens
i hear you my man .... its unbelievable.. every time i check your thread your FUMING about a bad beat .. and believe me, i know! you've had TERRIBLY bad beats this season.. its a form of entertainment lol because your reactions kill me!! hang in there brother .. keep it going ... doing great in the NFL over/unders pal
 
Joined
Apr 6, 2012
Messages
3,314
Tokens
i hear you my man .... its unbelievable.. every time i check your thread your FUMING about a bad beat .. and believe me, i know! you've had TERRIBLY bad beats this season.. its a form of entertainment lol because your reactions kill me!! hang in there brother .. keep it going ... doing great in the NFL over/unders pal

Haha well I'm glad I've been able to provide everyone some comical humor, aside from my in-depth analysis, from my unusual and bizarre misery this year lol. I guess it should be an interesting feeling that I legitimately and factually lead the entire country in fluke bad breaks
 

New member
Joined
Sep 8, 2012
Messages
37
Tokens
Haha well I'm glad I've been able to provide everyone some comical humor, aside from my in-depth analysis, from my unusual and bizarre misery this year lol. I guess it should be an interesting feeling that I legitimately and factually lead the entire country in fluke bad breaks

images
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,632
Messages
13,453,089
Members
99,426
Latest member
bodyhealthtechofficia
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com