Betting Packers-Seahawks
Seattle's solid at home, but betting Packers on the road is a good wager
By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
Why even bother studying these games? Just wager on the underdog and you're pretty much a winner in the NFL. Underdogs are 27-19-1 this season, including a 12-6 mark at home.
And that's what we have tonight: The Green Bay Packers are laying minus-3.5 in Seattle. (Hypocrite alert: I like Green Bay laying the points.)
When the season began, the Packers were given the worthless (unless you placed a bet) Super Bowl favorite award. Two games in, they have been summarily dismissed after a lackluster 1-1 start. The league-wide darling San Francisco 49ers fell Sunday, so expect that attention to go to the Houston Texans.
Exactly why are the Packers a 3.5-point favorite tonight against the Seattle Seahawks? Green Bay (4-4 ATS on the road in 2011) was a bigger favorite in every road game it played last season, which included trips to Atlanta, San Diego and New York (versus the Giants). The Packers haven't been sharp in 2012, but the biggest reason for the modest spread is the often-expressed theory that Seattle has the most significant home-field advantage in the league. The trip to Seattle is exhausting, the stadium holds noise better than typical state-of-the-art stadiums, the fans are relentless, etc. Add that typical excitement to the spectacle of "Monday Night Football" and the home-field advantage will be even greater.
The Seahawks have gone 5-3 ATS at home in each of Pete Carroll's first two years and had an impressive performance against Dallas last week. Also, Seattle's Week 1 loss to the Arizona Cardinals doesn't seem quite as bad now that the Cardinals are threatening the 1972 Miami Dolphins.
No surprise, but according to the ESPN PickCenter, the Packers are getting serious love from the public, with 62.6 percent picking them to cover. Let's turn to some analysis from a professional handicapper:
Wunderdog says: "Here we are in the closeout game of Week 3, and we continue to see perception in the gambling world based on last year. If we pay attention, we see every year that what happened in previous seasons is often far from this season's reality, but it takes people a while to adjust. Just ask fans in New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, Detroit and New Orleans. All those teams were in the playoffs last year and have losing records through three weeks.
"Green Bay went 15-1 a year ago. I wrote about this team last season when they were 12-0. I wrote that they were good, but not that good. They went on to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs later in the year and bowed out of the playoffs early. Yet the perception lingers that this is a team that should be favored in nearly any and all situations. Even after the Packers lost in Game 1 of this year, most people gave them a pass; they played the Niners after all. A Week 2 win over the Chicago Bears solidified for most that the Packers remain an elite team.
"Last season, a lot of Green Bay's success came from a ridiculous number of opponent turnovers -- and that again is what happened last week against Chicago, with Jay Cutler throwing four interceptions. Don't get me wrong. This is a very good Packers team, especially on offense. Last year, the Packers' offense was virtually unstoppable, and it is still potent, but things aren't coming as easily for them so far this season. And the defense remains a big question mark.
"Seattle took what looked like a bad loss in the season opener at Arizona 20-16. That loss doesn't look the same now that Arizona is 3-0, with a combined score of 47-24 in their two wins against New England and Philadelphia. Seattle proved that last week by beating Dallas here 27-7. In that game, the Cowboys ran for just 49 yards, and outside of one long drive in the second quarter, the Cowboys could not move the ball on the Seahawks.
"Russell Wilson has been effective as the new style dual-threat NFL quarterback, rushing 12 times for 48 yards. A healthy Marshawn Lynch has 207 yards on the ground in two games. The Packers defense seems better than last year, but they are the second worst at stopping the run, allowing 5.09 yards per carry.
"Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-5 ATS at home. The public is all over the Packers here at nearly eight out of every 10 bets, but I recommend going the other way. Take the underdog here in a winnable game."
Prediction: Spread should remain minus-3.5; total will remain the same.
Seattle is coming off a nice home win over the Dallas Cowboys last week, while the Packers have yet to find their groove, struggling in their opener against San Francisco then beating Chicago in, quite frankly, an uninspiring effort. That is good for a play on the Packers tonight, as probability is a big descriptive term I like to use with my handicapping. Let's be honest: The chances of a rookie quarterback leading his team in back-to-back wins over NFC playoff-caliber teams, even at home, is slim. I know many of the media pundits have been all over Russell Wilson, continually telling us how great he is, but the numbers tell a different story.
Seattle's offense vs. Green Bay's defense: My numbers say Seattle has the No. 28 passing offense. A big reason I like Green Bay tonight is the Packers' No. 3 pass defense. Overall, Seattle's offense is ranked 22nd, while Green Bay defense is fifth. The only area of the four main "buckets" in which I group my units analysis (passing, rushing, miscellaneous overall [such as time of possession, conversion percentage -- any stat that cannot be directly attributed to passing or rushing]) that Seattle's offense has an edge over Green Bay's defense is their rush offense, where Seattle is 10th while Green Bay is 15th.
However, when you look at specific strength of schedule, Seattle accomplished the No. 10 rushing offense against the No. 14 opponents' rushing defense, while GB has the 15th-ranked rushing defense but faced the sixth-ranked opponents' rushing offense. The Green Bay defense has the edge over Seattle's offense.
Green Bay's offense vs. Seattle's defense: This matchup is interesting in that Seattle's defense has the performance edge in all four buckets over the Green Bay offense. However, the Green Bay offense has faced the much tougher defensive schedule. The performance edge Seattle's defense has is almost identical to the SOS disadvantage it had when accumulating those stats:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Seattle D: Performance Edge
<table><thead><tr><th>RANK</th><th>SOS</th><th>RANK</th><th>SOS</th><th>RANK</th><th>SOS</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td>27</td><td>4</td><td>5</td><td>25</td><td>(22)</td><td>21</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>18</td><td>5</td><td>8</td><td>14</td><td>(10)</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>20</td><td>13</td><td>5</td><td>28</td><td>(15)</td><td>15</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>24</td><td>5</td><td>4</td><td>25</td><td>(20)</td><td>20</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
Almost identical. So most times, I would lean toward the performance side of this type of analysis, but Green Bay has showed it has one of the best offenses in football the past few seasons (finished with the third-ranked offense two of the past three years), while Seattle's defense has improved each of the past three years but has yet to rank inside the top 10 in any season (No. 22 in 2009, No. 21 in 2010, No. 12 in 2011).
Both defenses are ranked similarly heading into tonight: Seattle is ranked fourth and Green Bay fifth, but Green Bay put those numbers up against San Francisco and Chicago, while Seattle faced Arizona and Dallas. Being that I had San Francisco and Chicago reaching the playoffs this season, I feel Green Bay put its numbers up against tougher competition, realizing both games were at home.
I do not discount Green Bay's performance as much as other teams' as far as home/road split because Green Bay was No. 4 last season in road performance, which when normalized for SOS slides up to No. 3. On the flip side, Seattle actually played better on the road last season compared to at home (No. 22 at home against No. 26 SOS, No. 23 on road against No. 2 SOS). While there's no question Seattle fans make a ton of noise, that can be overrated a touch, especially against a team as solid as the Packers.
Green Bay's defense will confuse and rattle Wilson into a number of mistakes; the Packers enter the game averaging 5.5 sacks per game and two interceptions per game. Green Bay is yielding just 4.3 yards per pass attempt, 58.8 percent completions, 133 pass yards and a 57.2 QBR. Meanwhile, its offense against the Seattle defense will be a great matchup, one Green Bay wins over the long haul of 60 minutes behind the arm of Aaron Rodgers.
The pick: Packers
</offer>
Seattle's solid at home, but betting Packers on the road is a good wager
By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
Why even bother studying these games? Just wager on the underdog and you're pretty much a winner in the NFL. Underdogs are 27-19-1 this season, including a 12-6 mark at home.
And that's what we have tonight: The Green Bay Packers are laying minus-3.5 in Seattle. (Hypocrite alert: I like Green Bay laying the points.)
When the season began, the Packers were given the worthless (unless you placed a bet) Super Bowl favorite award. Two games in, they have been summarily dismissed after a lackluster 1-1 start. The league-wide darling San Francisco 49ers fell Sunday, so expect that attention to go to the Houston Texans.
Exactly why are the Packers a 3.5-point favorite tonight against the Seattle Seahawks? Green Bay (4-4 ATS on the road in 2011) was a bigger favorite in every road game it played last season, which included trips to Atlanta, San Diego and New York (versus the Giants). The Packers haven't been sharp in 2012, but the biggest reason for the modest spread is the often-expressed theory that Seattle has the most significant home-field advantage in the league. The trip to Seattle is exhausting, the stadium holds noise better than typical state-of-the-art stadiums, the fans are relentless, etc. Add that typical excitement to the spectacle of "Monday Night Football" and the home-field advantage will be even greater.
The Seahawks have gone 5-3 ATS at home in each of Pete Carroll's first two years and had an impressive performance against Dallas last week. Also, Seattle's Week 1 loss to the Arizona Cardinals doesn't seem quite as bad now that the Cardinals are threatening the 1972 Miami Dolphins.
No surprise, but according to the ESPN PickCenter, the Packers are getting serious love from the public, with 62.6 percent picking them to cover. Let's turn to some analysis from a professional handicapper:
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Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Opened at Packers minus-3, now at Packers minus-3.5
Total: 45.5
<offer>Spread: Opened at Packers minus-3, now at Packers minus-3.5
Total: 45.5
<hr style="width: 50%;">
Wunderdog says: "Here we are in the closeout game of Week 3, and we continue to see perception in the gambling world based on last year. If we pay attention, we see every year that what happened in previous seasons is often far from this season's reality, but it takes people a while to adjust. Just ask fans in New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, Detroit and New Orleans. All those teams were in the playoffs last year and have losing records through three weeks.
"Green Bay went 15-1 a year ago. I wrote about this team last season when they were 12-0. I wrote that they were good, but not that good. They went on to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs later in the year and bowed out of the playoffs early. Yet the perception lingers that this is a team that should be favored in nearly any and all situations. Even after the Packers lost in Game 1 of this year, most people gave them a pass; they played the Niners after all. A Week 2 win over the Chicago Bears solidified for most that the Packers remain an elite team.
"Last season, a lot of Green Bay's success came from a ridiculous number of opponent turnovers -- and that again is what happened last week against Chicago, with Jay Cutler throwing four interceptions. Don't get me wrong. This is a very good Packers team, especially on offense. Last year, the Packers' offense was virtually unstoppable, and it is still potent, but things aren't coming as easily for them so far this season. And the defense remains a big question mark.
"Seattle took what looked like a bad loss in the season opener at Arizona 20-16. That loss doesn't look the same now that Arizona is 3-0, with a combined score of 47-24 in their two wins against New England and Philadelphia. Seattle proved that last week by beating Dallas here 27-7. In that game, the Cowboys ran for just 49 yards, and outside of one long drive in the second quarter, the Cowboys could not move the ball on the Seahawks.
"Russell Wilson has been effective as the new style dual-threat NFL quarterback, rushing 12 times for 48 yards. A healthy Marshawn Lynch has 207 yards on the ground in two games. The Packers defense seems better than last year, but they are the second worst at stopping the run, allowing 5.09 yards per carry.
"Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-5 ATS at home. The public is all over the Packers here at nearly eight out of every 10 bets, but I recommend going the other way. Take the underdog here in a winnable game."
Prediction: Spread should remain minus-3.5; total will remain the same.
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The SportsBoss offers four keys to tonight's matchup: I have a strong selection on the Packers to beat Seattle in Seattle without much trouble. This game is one of my stronger plays so far this season in the NFL. Why, you ask?Seattle is coming off a nice home win over the Dallas Cowboys last week, while the Packers have yet to find their groove, struggling in their opener against San Francisco then beating Chicago in, quite frankly, an uninspiring effort. That is good for a play on the Packers tonight, as probability is a big descriptive term I like to use with my handicapping. Let's be honest: The chances of a rookie quarterback leading his team in back-to-back wins over NFC playoff-caliber teams, even at home, is slim. I know many of the media pundits have been all over Russell Wilson, continually telling us how great he is, but the numbers tell a different story.
Seattle's offense vs. Green Bay's defense: My numbers say Seattle has the No. 28 passing offense. A big reason I like Green Bay tonight is the Packers' No. 3 pass defense. Overall, Seattle's offense is ranked 22nd, while Green Bay defense is fifth. The only area of the four main "buckets" in which I group my units analysis (passing, rushing, miscellaneous overall [such as time of possession, conversion percentage -- any stat that cannot be directly attributed to passing or rushing]) that Seattle's offense has an edge over Green Bay's defense is their rush offense, where Seattle is 10th while Green Bay is 15th.
However, when you look at specific strength of schedule, Seattle accomplished the No. 10 rushing offense against the No. 14 opponents' rushing defense, while GB has the 15th-ranked rushing defense but faced the sixth-ranked opponents' rushing offense. The Green Bay defense has the edge over Seattle's offense.
Green Bay's offense vs. Seattle's defense: This matchup is interesting in that Seattle's defense has the performance edge in all four buckets over the Green Bay offense. However, the Green Bay offense has faced the much tougher defensive schedule. The performance edge Seattle's defense has is almost identical to the SOS disadvantage it had when accumulating those stats:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Seattle D: Performance Edge
<table><thead><tr><th>RANK</th><th>SOS</th><th>RANK</th><th>SOS</th><th>RANK</th><th>SOS</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td></td></tr><tr class="last"><td>27</td><td>4</td><td>5</td><td>25</td><td>(22)</td><td>21</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>18</td><td>5</td><td>8</td><td>14</td><td>(10)</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>20</td><td>13</td><td>5</td><td>28</td><td>(15)</td><td>15</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>24</td><td>5</td><td>4</td><td>25</td><td>(20)</td><td>20</td></tr></tbody></table>
<!-- end inline 1 -->
Almost identical. So most times, I would lean toward the performance side of this type of analysis, but Green Bay has showed it has one of the best offenses in football the past few seasons (finished with the third-ranked offense two of the past three years), while Seattle's defense has improved each of the past three years but has yet to rank inside the top 10 in any season (No. 22 in 2009, No. 21 in 2010, No. 12 in 2011).
Both defenses are ranked similarly heading into tonight: Seattle is ranked fourth and Green Bay fifth, but Green Bay put those numbers up against San Francisco and Chicago, while Seattle faced Arizona and Dallas. Being that I had San Francisco and Chicago reaching the playoffs this season, I feel Green Bay put its numbers up against tougher competition, realizing both games were at home.
I do not discount Green Bay's performance as much as other teams' as far as home/road split because Green Bay was No. 4 last season in road performance, which when normalized for SOS slides up to No. 3. On the flip side, Seattle actually played better on the road last season compared to at home (No. 22 at home against No. 26 SOS, No. 23 on road against No. 2 SOS). While there's no question Seattle fans make a ton of noise, that can be overrated a touch, especially against a team as solid as the Packers.
Green Bay's defense will confuse and rattle Wilson into a number of mistakes; the Packers enter the game averaging 5.5 sacks per game and two interceptions per game. Green Bay is yielding just 4.3 yards per pass attempt, 58.8 percent completions, 133 pass yards and a 57.2 QBR. Meanwhile, its offense against the Seattle defense will be a great matchup, one Green Bay wins over the long haul of 60 minutes behind the arm of Aaron Rodgers.
The pick: Packers
</offer>
