The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 25, 2012 - YTD: 340-318-45

2012 MLB O/U Record: 340-318-45, -$1,834 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

A tough 1-1-2 performance yesterday that was tough to swallow, considering my one “loss,” the Hochevar vs Verlander matchup, played exactly how I anticipated it, but unfortunately, it finished in my absolute worst-case scenario of 6-2 (Not 5-3, not 7-1, not 8-0. I exclusively thought 6-2). As a result, I can at least take solace in the fact that I was still 100-percent right about that game, but unfortunately, even when you have a matchup absolutely completely mapped out, you can still lose with a worst-case scenario, so I’ll just accept it. And hey, considering how that Packers bet turned out last night (Luckily I also had the UNDER, which offset my Packers -3 "loss" ugh), I think it’s safe to say that anything pales in comparison to what we all witnessed on ESPN last night. At the same time, when the NFL grabs headlines like that, it’s tough to concentrate on baseball, even after the week is completed, but let’s see what I could muster up anyway…


Josh Beckett vs Edinson Volquez UNDER 7 - $48 for $40
Yes, Edinson Volquez has dropped off considerably since setting a nice pace for himself throughout the first half of the year and beyond (3.30 ERA entering late-July), to the point where his ERA is now more than a full run higher. The majority of that reasoning has to do with his well-documented problem of walking opposing batters, which he has been doing even more frequently over the past month-and-change, but if his last start is any indication when he walked no batters for the first time all year in 30 starts (!), then perhaps we will see more of the early-2012 Edinson Volquez in action tonight. I mean, I’d say it’s more likely than not, considering the right-hander is home at cozy Petco Park on this Tuesday evening, where his home stats (3.11 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .197 BAA) are much superior compared to his road splits (5.60 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, .266 BAA). That is a VERY significant difference. Meanwhile, speaking of pitchers performing like their old selves, I predicted Josh Beckett would do such a thing when he first came to the Dodgers in that blockbuster trade, and for the most part, I’ve been right, as he’s 1-2 with a 3.45 ERA in five starts since joining the club. It’s a very interesting vibe I had concerning Beckett, considering this is a guy I previously didn’t bet on much as it pertains to his over/unders in years past, as I simply felt a new change of scenery - one in which that is at least competing for a playoff spot - would bring out the vintage Beckett, and I think that will continue throughout this start. Furthermore, Beckett has always had success against the Padres and in Petco Park when he was in the NL, so hopefully meeting them once again rekindles some of that magic. When he’s motivated, the former Red Sox ace is a big-game pitcher who eats up innings in a positive way, and since every contest just might be like a playoff game down the stretch for LA, Beckett should enter this contest with the appropriate mindset and do what he’s been doing for the past month - keep his team in the ballgame and pitch effectively. This could be a potential duel, and the line is where we want it at 7.


**Will Definitely Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**

Adding two 7 o'clock over/unders...

Laffey vs Saunders OVER 9 - $23 for $23
Eovaldi vs Medlen UNDER 7 - $21 for $20

Don't recommend big amounts for these games, as I simply haven't felt like myself these past couple of weeks. The extreme passion I've had all year just isn't there right now while I'm also equally as invested into football at this point in time. Consecutive great days can change that

Also, I find it very fishy that Garcia vs Harrell under 8 is somehow even money. Yes, Garcia's road splits are far from good (A trend I detailed several weeks ago before national media started picking up on it a couple of weeks ago, by the way) but the fact remains that:

A)The Astros are historically bad this year against left-handed pitching, even with improved hitting versus southpaws over the past couple of weeks
B)Garcia just had a good road start in LA so this tendency will not affect him as much mentally for the time being
C)Lucas Harrell is God. Seriously though, personal bias aside (Since I loved the guy coming into this year and love him even more now as one of my top three favorite pitchers), his last start against St Louis was a fine one, which was on the road, and now he's at home tonight where he's been nothing short of excellent this year.

Hmm

Gonna bite on it:

Garcia vs Harrell UNDER 8 - $23 for $23

This is more of a logical bet than a "feel" bet, which don't treat me as successfully as "feel" bets do

Adding one more late game:

Collmenter vs Lincecum UNDER 7 - $21 for $20

I LOVE Josh Collmenter; I was absolutely one of the first people on his bandwagon in the beginning of last year and have been successful with him this year in his spot starts. This one's a bit different, though, as he only found out this morning when Tyler Skaggs was scratched

Good for you with hangin in there, you may be at a loss but as I can see you havent over done it or lost a ton betting over your head. Good luck the rest of the way.

CTsharp said:

Good for you with hangin in there, you may be at a loss but as I can see you havent over done it or lost a ton betting over your head. Good luck the rest of the way.

Click to expand...

Yup, thank you. I finally settled into my real groove in August, winning 60-percent of my 100+ games throughout that month, but once football started, I just haven't felt like myself in terms of having that extreme passion and grip over baseball over/unders that I had in the first five months of the season, and throughout every day last year. Honestly, September was actually my most profitable and successful month from my magical 2011 season, but it's completely different now that I'm writing about football betting as well and applying so much focus and concentration towards that it makes it literally impossible, for me at least, to maintain that sort of grip and stronghold I've had over pitching matchups on a daily basis for the first five months. In other words, prior to September, I lived and breathed baseball over/unders. Same with last year, when I was, for the most part, ignoring football throughout September while baseball was still going on. This year, since I've been thinking about football so much (And being so discouraged by my Saints' 0-3 start ugh), it just takes away from my baseball mindset. Period.

Bottom Line: To those who make a living doing this 365 days a year, while winning successfully in MULTIPLE SPORTS AT A TIME, I honestly have no idea how you do it. That's the bottom line, I really don't know how you people do it with more than one sport at a time. It's impossible to me. It's just too much - way too much - on days where you have multiple sports that it's hard to really absorb everything and differentiate certain vibes. Literally, it's too much. On Sundays, I go through a baseball slate and all I can think about is football. How can someone be successful like that in baseball then? So to those of you are successful doing more than one sport at a time, I have the upmost respect for you, and all I can do is tip my cap to those who do it.

Some observations tonight:

1-1-1 start to my first three games, but of course, for the FOURTH TIME IN SIX DAYS, I suffered an unlucky break when the Marlins bullpen blew my Eovaldi vs Medlen under 7 in the 9th. I mean, that can EASILY HAPPEN (Braves coming back from being down 3-2 in the 9th against Miami) - don't get me wrong - but the fact that this has happened FOUR times now in SIX days, when closers successfully finish out games 70+ percent of the time, that's a little ridiculous. In THIS specific instance, though, I can't really complain about luck or anything because it's the Marlins' bullpen trying to close out an always-tough Braves team so I'm not too upset with that, and at least it was a push instead of a loss. But come on, you can add this to the following list of closers blowing my recent unders:

Thursday: Andrew Bailey blowing my Buchholz vs Price under 7 when it was 4-1 in the ninth, and he's been very good since his return. Very, very uncharacteristic of him, and he started against the bottom of the order!
Friday: My Carpenter vs Volstad under 9 was 4-2 in the 9th with two outs, two strikes, and no one on, before a single took place, then a two-strike, two-run homer by Darwin Barney, which was his first since August 13. Luckily this ended up as a push instead of a loss, but this was probably my most painful bad beat of this group.
Saturday: Buehrle vs Dickey under 7 was 4-0 in the 9th, and of course .198-hitting John Buck blasted a fluke three-run homer in the ninth to turn my well-deserved win into a push. C'mon mann

Shades of the first half of the season when this was happening wayyy too constantly. As I've said, the second half has been mostly fair in terms of bad beats, as they haven't been as consistent, although it's absolutely unfair how even though they've been kept to a minimum, the number of bad beats has FAR, FARRRRRR exceeded the number of good ones. Not even close. I'd love to punch the guy who invented the mythical "All breaks even out in the end" theory because I'm living proof that it's not even close to being true.

But I'm over it. Like I said, this second half has been very fair compared to the first half. The first half was just unbearable.

And it feels good to add yet another Lucas Harrell under victory to my record this season. Can't wait to do the complete breakdown of my stats after the season and see what my record was with him... after all, who else in the country had this guy in their top three sleepers entering the season (Along with James McDonald and Blake Beaven)?

You know, it's almost just really unfair when you make a bet based on a bold prediction, and then you turn out 100-percent right with said bold prediction (In this case, citing an outstanding performance from Josh Collmenter on the road, and on short-notice since he only found out this morning!), only to lose a bet for an entirely different reason that really should have just been a steady variable.

It's ridiculous. 99.5-percent of the people who took the Collmenter vs Lincecum over 7 took it solely because of Collmenter's sudden spot start, considering Lincecum has looked like his complete dominant self this entire month, and throughout a significant portion of August, while Collmenter, as much as I love him, can be erratic, which is why he got ousted from the rotation in the first place months ago (Which I thought was ludicrous, by the way. Kirk Gibson is a very overrated manager). By that logic, those people were 100-percent wrong, and somehow get credit for a win? Come onnn, it happens way too much. And in this game, Lincecum was inexplicably rocked despite being his Cy Young-caliber self for an extensive period of time coming into this start. Frustrating. Now I get a "loss" on my Josh Collmenter record, which comes completely undeserved, but that's what happens when you take Tim Lincecum over/unders, who I usually stay away from, even when he was more consistent in years past

Phew. Best bet Beckett vs Volquez under 7 may have finished 2-1, but had to sweat it out, even though San Diego was 65-1 when entering the ninth inning with a lead (And with my historically bad luck in 2012, you had to think that was about to be dented). However, it was ultimately first and third with only one out, but luckily, Huston Street was able to fight his way through Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp to preserve the victory, and more importantly to me, the under.

2-2-1 day, although it really should've been 3-2/3-1-1/4-1, as I was 100-percent right with the Eovaldi vs Medlen matchup, while my reasoning for taking the Collmenter vs Lincecum under was spot-on as well with my bold prediction. All good signs as I head into this final week; just need little building blocks to get back mentally to where I was all year because clearly I just haven't felt it these past couple of weeks with football all over

As I look through the schedule one last time and soak it all in before I begin my analysis of tomorrow's slate, I notice there was one game that had the ultimate bad beat of all - one EVEN WORSE than last night's Packers/Seahawks debacle...

Cubs 5, Rockies 10 F/7

Trust me. It only happens 2-3 times a year. Whoever had the over of 10.5 ACTUALLY WON, but didn't get credit for it because over/unders have to go at least the full 8.5/9 innings to count. Doesn't get any worse or more frustrating than that