Most of the talk this offseason has centered on the Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat. Even the Philadelphia 76ers have drawn some interest with the addition of Andrew Bynum. Big trades and free-agent acquisitions will do that.
However, the Boston Celtics did neither (save for re-signing Kevin Garnett) and very quietly have had a tremendous offseason. With some good fortune this season, they could be just the team to break Miami's stranglehold on the Eastern Conference crown.
For much of the 2011-12 postseason, Garnett was the best player in the NBA. While it would not be fair to expect a carbon copy of that performance next May and June, it's certainly fair to expect that he'll remain a dominant force on both ends of the court.
For much of that same span of time, Rajon Rondo was almost as dominant, and he can be fully expected to continue that trend this postseason as he enters his prime. Paul Pierce, though his game has eroded a bit, is possibly more competitive than I've ever seen him -- more locked in to "we, not me," and is absolutely capable of being the team's best player during stretches this spring.
In last season's lockout-crammed schedule, Boston's "Big Three" (Rondo had replaced Ray Allen in that grouping last season) played 31 minutes (Garnett), 34 minutes (Pierce) and 37 minutes (Rondo) per game. Now compare those minutes to those of the San Antonio Spurs' Big Three. Tony Parker averaged 32 minutes, Tim Duncan logged 28 per night and Manu Ginobili checked in at just 23 minutes per game. That is a significant discrepancy in minutes played. Simply, Doc Rivers had little choice but to play those men that much.
Still, the Celtics had some terrific efforts in the postseason, despite the huge number of minutes their top players played in the jammed schedule. But what general manager Danny Ainge did more than anything is offer Rivers options to rest his top guys while still giving his team a great chance to win on any given night. That depth is an option he did not have last season. That depth is also something the Miami Heat do not have.
And this is where Boston's offseason will shine.
'Big' minutes
A healthy Jeff Green should be counted on to help spell both Pierce and Garnett, so even if Green recedes a bit from his underwhelming career averages, buying those two vets extra rest will help the team in the long run. But there is every reason to believe Green will actually improve from his play in previous seasons. Joe Kaiser discussed Green's role last month.
Comfortable in his new role, and in a role that should be well-defined, Green has a strong chance to have a career season. His raw averages might not be great, as he won't get the minutes most other 26-year-old top-five picks will get, but his metrics per minute can be strong.
Perhaps an even more interesting "minute buyer" for Garnett is rookie center Fab Melo. This past spring I suggested that Melo would be a target for Boston with one of its multiple first-round picks purely because of the help he could provide for Garnett. His size and defensive disposition should be at a high enough level to earn minutes all season, allowing Rivers to play him extended time on more than a few occasions. The fact Boston might blow out a good number of teams should help, as well.
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images
Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo could be difference-makers for Boston very quickly.
It's possible that Melo will sit on the bench in May, as a rested Garnett should be able to play more than 36 minutes a game in the postseason. If, however, Melo learns to score more efficiently inside, likely as a "garbage man" with easy putbacks on loose balls, and can clog up the lane for an already terrific defensive squad, he becomes a valuable chip against teams like Philadelphia (with Bynum) or even Miami, when the Celtics don't go with a small lineup.
In terms of efficient scoring, Jared Sullinger presents an intriguing option. To be sure, he most likely will be a weak link for a season or two on defense, struggling with a lack of quickness at the point of attack, knowledge of opponents, understanding his defensive roles and rotations.
However, his learning curve will be fast on a veteran team like the Celtics, and his teammates can help cover his issues. Where Sullinger can help Boston a great deal immediately is as a rebounder (perhaps the Celtics' biggest need) and a finisher in the paint. Like Melo, Sullinger can be someone who saves minutes for Garnett but can also prove to be an offensive force on whom playoff opponents must focus, thus giving the Celtics' bigger weapons more freedom to operate.
Defense and outside shooting
As much as the three bigs can help Boston, the Celtics' biggest upgrade was at the guard position. Both Jason Terry and Courtney Lee, individually and as a combination, should be an upgrade over the Ray Allen/Avery Bradley platoon from last season.
Lee is a dynamic on-ball defender who is also a very strong 3-point shooter, though he's more accustomed to doing so on kickouts than off screens (an Allen preference). Terry is a big scoring option off the bench who should pair well with Rondo late in games. Both have postseason experience extending to the Finals, so they will not be "in shock" come spring.
But Lee's ability to defend most small forwards gives Boston an intriguing option -- playing both guards with Rondo, Pierce and Garnett as part of a small lineup. They'd have three guys on the court who have great range and three terrific ball handlers to protect late leads. And of that group only Terry would be exposed on defense. Being able to go big or small late in games will give the Celtics a decided advantage in many postseason matchups, something they have not been able to use well in the past (at least not compared to what they will have this season). When Bradley returns from his shoulder injury, he only adds another key guy to help spell a veteran, notably Rondo, as putting Bradley on the court with veterans like Lee or Terry will help him more than pairing him with a more pure shooting guard like Allen.
Boston won the Atlantic Division last season and appears to be deeper and more talented this season. The Celtics should be able to pull off the magical combination of limiting their top players' minutes without sacrificing much in terms of wins. Of course, having well-rested starters does not mean postseason wins are guaranteed, as the Spurs can attest. But last spring it was routine to see Garnett playing great for a long stretch, then huffing and puffing and resting with his hands on his shorts whenever he could.
In the end, a more energized Big Three for Boston is likely to make the Celtics a very tough beat in seven games. And if they can defeat Miami, no matter who among the Big Three turns out to be the biggest player of the series, the Celtics will have to thank Ainge and his sharp offseason moves for being the catalyst.
However, the Boston Celtics did neither (save for re-signing Kevin Garnett) and very quietly have had a tremendous offseason. With some good fortune this season, they could be just the team to break Miami's stranglehold on the Eastern Conference crown.
For much of the 2011-12 postseason, Garnett was the best player in the NBA. While it would not be fair to expect a carbon copy of that performance next May and June, it's certainly fair to expect that he'll remain a dominant force on both ends of the court.
For much of that same span of time, Rajon Rondo was almost as dominant, and he can be fully expected to continue that trend this postseason as he enters his prime. Paul Pierce, though his game has eroded a bit, is possibly more competitive than I've ever seen him -- more locked in to "we, not me," and is absolutely capable of being the team's best player during stretches this spring.
In last season's lockout-crammed schedule, Boston's "Big Three" (Rondo had replaced Ray Allen in that grouping last season) played 31 minutes (Garnett), 34 minutes (Pierce) and 37 minutes (Rondo) per game. Now compare those minutes to those of the San Antonio Spurs' Big Three. Tony Parker averaged 32 minutes, Tim Duncan logged 28 per night and Manu Ginobili checked in at just 23 minutes per game. That is a significant discrepancy in minutes played. Simply, Doc Rivers had little choice but to play those men that much.
Still, the Celtics had some terrific efforts in the postseason, despite the huge number of minutes their top players played in the jammed schedule. But what general manager Danny Ainge did more than anything is offer Rivers options to rest his top guys while still giving his team a great chance to win on any given night. That depth is an option he did not have last season. That depth is also something the Miami Heat do not have.
And this is where Boston's offseason will shine.
'Big' minutes
A healthy Jeff Green should be counted on to help spell both Pierce and Garnett, so even if Green recedes a bit from his underwhelming career averages, buying those two vets extra rest will help the team in the long run. But there is every reason to believe Green will actually improve from his play in previous seasons. Joe Kaiser discussed Green's role last month.
Comfortable in his new role, and in a role that should be well-defined, Green has a strong chance to have a career season. His raw averages might not be great, as he won't get the minutes most other 26-year-old top-five picks will get, but his metrics per minute can be strong.
Perhaps an even more interesting "minute buyer" for Garnett is rookie center Fab Melo. This past spring I suggested that Melo would be a target for Boston with one of its multiple first-round picks purely because of the help he could provide for Garnett. His size and defensive disposition should be at a high enough level to earn minutes all season, allowing Rivers to play him extended time on more than a few occasions. The fact Boston might blow out a good number of teams should help, as well.
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images
Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo could be difference-makers for Boston very quickly.
It's possible that Melo will sit on the bench in May, as a rested Garnett should be able to play more than 36 minutes a game in the postseason. If, however, Melo learns to score more efficiently inside, likely as a "garbage man" with easy putbacks on loose balls, and can clog up the lane for an already terrific defensive squad, he becomes a valuable chip against teams like Philadelphia (with Bynum) or even Miami, when the Celtics don't go with a small lineup.
In terms of efficient scoring, Jared Sullinger presents an intriguing option. To be sure, he most likely will be a weak link for a season or two on defense, struggling with a lack of quickness at the point of attack, knowledge of opponents, understanding his defensive roles and rotations.
However, his learning curve will be fast on a veteran team like the Celtics, and his teammates can help cover his issues. Where Sullinger can help Boston a great deal immediately is as a rebounder (perhaps the Celtics' biggest need) and a finisher in the paint. Like Melo, Sullinger can be someone who saves minutes for Garnett but can also prove to be an offensive force on whom playoff opponents must focus, thus giving the Celtics' bigger weapons more freedom to operate.
Defense and outside shooting
As much as the three bigs can help Boston, the Celtics' biggest upgrade was at the guard position. Both Jason Terry and Courtney Lee, individually and as a combination, should be an upgrade over the Ray Allen/Avery Bradley platoon from last season.
Lee is a dynamic on-ball defender who is also a very strong 3-point shooter, though he's more accustomed to doing so on kickouts than off screens (an Allen preference). Terry is a big scoring option off the bench who should pair well with Rondo late in games. Both have postseason experience extending to the Finals, so they will not be "in shock" come spring.
But Lee's ability to defend most small forwards gives Boston an intriguing option -- playing both guards with Rondo, Pierce and Garnett as part of a small lineup. They'd have three guys on the court who have great range and three terrific ball handlers to protect late leads. And of that group only Terry would be exposed on defense. Being able to go big or small late in games will give the Celtics a decided advantage in many postseason matchups, something they have not been able to use well in the past (at least not compared to what they will have this season). When Bradley returns from his shoulder injury, he only adds another key guy to help spell a veteran, notably Rondo, as putting Bradley on the court with veterans like Lee or Terry will help him more than pairing him with a more pure shooting guard like Allen.
Boston won the Atlantic Division last season and appears to be deeper and more talented this season. The Celtics should be able to pull off the magical combination of limiting their top players' minutes without sacrificing much in terms of wins. Of course, having well-rested starters does not mean postseason wins are guaranteed, as the Spurs can attest. But last spring it was routine to see Garnett playing great for a long stretch, then huffing and puffing and resting with his hands on his shorts whenever he could.
In the end, a more energized Big Three for Boston is likely to make the Celtics a very tough beat in seven games. And if they can defeat Miami, no matter who among the Big Three turns out to be the biggest player of the series, the Celtics will have to thank Ainge and his sharp offseason moves for being the catalyst.
Lost Allen
Signed Jason Terry and Courtney Lee
They are gonna need that Terry kind of offense as KG and Pierce play less minutes.
Courtney Lee is an incredible defender and a good shooter, just not as good as Allen.
They got younger and better defensively.
Doc Rivers is an awesome coach.
Good team again, but still a 4/5 seed in the East, IMO
Signed Jason Terry and Courtney Lee
They are gonna need that Terry kind of offense as KG and Pierce play less minutes.
Courtney Lee is an incredible defender and a good shooter, just not as good as Allen.
They got younger and better defensively.
Doc Rivers is an awesome coach.
Good team again, but still a 4/5 seed in the East, IMO
NJN, NYK and Phi all got significantly better. KG/PP/Terry not getting any younger so yeah I'm not feeling the C's much this year.
The main thing for the C's is they had NO bench last year (Pietrus/Dooling was it so basically playing 5 guys) and now they have 1 of the best benches in the league. That will help a lot with the grind of regular season but playoffs come and you are shortening rotation anyway and probably won't have enough to beat Miami (couldn't beat them with Bosh basically out last year until game 7)
Green/Terry/Lee is a stacked bench though.
East is definitely getting better. Heat are still the best team in my opinion. Knicks are gonna be better, I hope. Celts good. Pacers good. I think the Bulls have slipped a bit. I just don't trust Rose staying healthy. I like the East. I just think the west has better teams from top to bottom
I think its probably best to send the $ somewhere considering how long the bet will take to complete. (Not gonna be decided until mid-April) One of us could be in jail or develop a coke habit by then (Or more likely just stop posting for a month or two cause busy)
I'll do it for whatever so you can name the $ within reason.
Ok yeah, thats cool...Booked.
Anyway, I don't really see how you think they won't finish top 6 in the East. How didn't they improve? They added JoeJ, Gwallace and Lopez. Those are 3 solid players basically replacing Dleague level nobodies from last year (Lopez played like 3 games for them, Wallace played 15)
Not to mention they had 1 of the worst HCs in the NBA last year and now in Brooklyn will have 1 of the best for atleast the next few years.
I see them being a lot like DWills Jazz teams, weaker interior D but good scoring/rebounding upfront but a lot better on the wing with Wallace/JoeJ.
Hell JoeJ led the Hawks to a 5 seed in the east LAST YEAR. DWill-JoeJ-Gwallace-Humph-Lopez is a solid regular season starting lineup, not much D but you aren't protecting the rim vs LeBron or Durant every night either.
As far as the external factors go.....Philly will be solid but they lost LWill/Brand/Igoudala, relying on E Turner to take a big jump.
Knicks should be better but who knows with Amare, not like they really added anyone that good.
3 of Celts best 4 players are 35+, they probably won't be gunning to win as many as Nets. Heat goes without saying are better.
Pacers are solid, decent regular season team but I like Nets better.
I dunno, thats like it. I got them as a top 4-5 seed at worst barring some pretty legitimate injuries.
Rose is probably gonna miss the first 40 games and I really don't see the Bulls being nearly as successful without him as they were last year.
If all those teams are better, they would be 7th seed.
I guess if Wall can make the leap and the veterans like Okafor/Nene stay healthy (huge longshot) then I could see the Wiz. That seems about it though
Maybe Atlanta? But they just dealt JoeJ for nothing and replaced him with LWill. Getting Horford back is nice but I don't see them > Nets.
Anyway, I don't really see how you think they won't finish top 6 in the East. How didn't they improve? They added JoeJ, Gwallace and Lopez. Those are 3 solid players basically replacing Dleague level nobodies from last year (Lopez played like 3 games for them, Wallace played 15)
Not to mention they had 1 of the worst HCs in the NBA last year and now in Brooklyn will have 1 of the best for atleast the next few years.
I see them being a lot like DWills Jazz teams, weaker interior D but good scoring/rebounding upfront but a lot better on the wing with Wallace/JoeJ.
Hell JoeJ led the Hawks to a 5 seed in the east LAST YEAR. DWill-JoeJ-Gwallace-Humph-Lopez is a solid regular season starting lineup, not much D but you aren't protecting the rim vs LeBron or Durant every night either.
As far as the external factors go.....Philly will be solid but they lost LWill/Brand/Igoudala, relying on E Turner to take a big jump.
Knicks should be better but who knows with Amare, not like they really added anyone that good.
3 of Celts best 4 players are 35+, they probably won't be gunning to win as many as Nets. Heat goes without saying are better.
Pacers are solid, decent regular season team but I like Nets better.
I dunno, thats like it. I got them as a top 4-5 seed at worst barring some pretty legitimate injuries.
Rose is probably gonna miss the first 40 games and I really don't see the Bulls being nearly as successful without him as they were last year.
If all those teams are better, they would be 7th seed.
I guess if Wall can make the leap and the veterans like Okafor/Nene stay healthy (huge longshot) then I could see the Wiz. That seems about it though
Maybe Atlanta? But they just dealt JoeJ for nothing and replaced him with LWill. Getting Horford back is nice but I don't see them > Nets.
Yeah, I just guess I wouldn't have given 19 million to Joe Johnson. I am completely unimpressed with his game FOR THAT KIND OF MONEY.
I like Lopez offensive abilities, but he is 7 feet tall and averaged 3.6 rebounds per game last year. That is actually hilarious.
I see the defense as being a major problem and the east tends to D up a little more than the west.
I think the bet is fair. I think it will be close, also.
I like Lopez offensive abilities, but he is 7 feet tall and averaged 3.6 rebounds per game last year. That is actually hilarious.
I see the defense as being a major problem and the east tends to D up a little more than the west.
I think the bet is fair. I think it will be close, also.
Lopez played like 3 games last year, you know that right? He had foot injuries but he is still young and has always been healthy before that. Humphries is a really good rebounder and so are JoeJ/GWallace for wing players (Wallace in particular) so on the offensive end/rebounding Humphries should compliment Lopez nicely.
Not sure what JoeJ getting 19M has to do with anything, I'm not the one paying it. Some rich russian dude who has more $ than like the 10 least rich NBA owners combined is.
I don't think they will be very good defensively either but that tends to matter a lot more in the playoffs. They are just a lot more talented than Pacers/Bulls/Wiz/Hawks....
Even Celts/Knicks I'm not sure will be better than him, probably be close. Heat only surething really....
