Exbookie wants to help the players week 4

Investment plays 1-3 -$4550.00
Action plays 6-8 -$1574.00
Total 7-11 -$6124.00


Know which team figurs to bemost motivated, or least motivated , and you will
have a solid edge.

Virtually every week of the NFL season, a team on either side of a 3-or-less point-spreadwill maul their opponents by more than 20 points. Such surprising lopsided routs are not dueto a big difference in talent, but neither can such massacres be charged off topure luck either. A crazy bounce, amiracle interception, a kick-it-around fumble recovery – all can result in afield goal or a “gimme” touchdown, but hardly a massacre.
So ifneither talent nor luck is at the root of these blowouts, that leaves only one other possiblesource: A critical difference inmotivation. Momentum. We’ve all seen it: Suddenly a team comestogether and everything they try seems to work. They roll down the field at will while the other team goes flat. Nothing works for their haplessopponents. The game becomes a rout.
Sportscasterscall this magic “The Big Mo.” Successbegets success for one team, screw-up begets screw-up for the other. It’s actually a relatively common occurrencein pro football. There are even timeswhen this emotional wave moves back and forth between teams during the samegame, sometimes switching very quickly after an interception or a fumble or amissed field goal.
One ofa bettor’s most important tasks is to understand how two teams are likely to beaffected by this phenomenon. There isno mathematical formula – that can overcome a critical difference indesire.
The keyto such understanding can often be found in the respective teams’ fundamentalcharacter. Many times when a game seemsequally important to both teams, it boils down to assessing the differences inthe two teams’ fundamental levels of maturity.
It’s atest of your psychological skills, rather than a test of your ability tocompute stats. You can take thisinformation to the bank: Althoughunderstanding stats and knowing how to work with stats is certainly important,the best sports bettor in history will turn out to be a psychology major with aminor in math, not a math major with a minor in psychology. Learn to know which team figures to be mostmotivated most of the time – or least motivated most of the time – and you willhave a solid edge.



STATS VS ATS

HOME 26
AWAY 22

DOGS 29
FAV 19

OVER 24
UNDER 26

POINTS THAT MATTER 7 OUT OF 48 GAMES 15% MOST YEARS ITS 17-18%




MORE TO COME

ACE

15 NEW O-CO-OR'S....WOW...NEW YEAR AND THIS MUST BE FACTOR IN



While the New York Jets are scrambling to get up to speed on the scheme of first-year coordinator Tony Sparano, 15 other teams are also putting together new systems on offense.

That's right, half of the teams in the NFL have new offensive coordinators. Here are the others:

Todd Haley, Pittsburgh — The former Kansas City coach returns to the Steelers, where his father, Dick, ran the personnel department during the Super Bowl years of the 1970s.

Bruce Arians, Indianapolis — Arians goes from working with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh to Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, the No. 1 overall draft pick.

Brian Daboll, Kansas City — Daboll and Romeo Crennel worked together on Bill Belichick's staff in New England. Now Daboll can build around running back Jamaal Charles.

Josh McDaniels, New England — After bumpy stints with Denver and St. Louis prompted him to return to the Patriots, McDaniels takes over for Bill O'Brien, now at Penn State.

Tom Clements, Green Bay — This is a promotion for Clements, but not a change of scenery. He was bumped up from quarterbacks coach to succeed Joe Philbin, now Dolphins coach.

Bill Callahan, Dallas — Jason Garrett will still call the plays for the Cowboys. Callahan will coach the offensive line, taking over for the retired Hudson Houck.

Mike Sullivan, Tampa Bay — Sullivan coached wide receivers then quarterbacks for the Giants, picking up a pair of Super Bowl rings. He'll try to re-create that magic.

Brian Schottenheimer, St. Louis — Schottenheimer, who spent the last six seasons with the Jets, will try to help quarterback Sam Bradford take the next step in his development.

Hal Hunter, San Diego — Hunter is a former college coach who broke into the NFL as offensive line coach of the Chargers in 2006. He was promoted to replace Clarence Shelmon.

Mike Sherman, Miami — Sherman gave Philbin his first job in the league — as a Packers assistant — and was once his high school English teacher.

Greg Knapp, Oakland — Knapp was Raiders offensive coordinator under Lane Kiffin, then Tom Cable, but spent the last two seasons coaching quarterbacks in Houston.

Dirk Koetter, Atlanta — Koetter will bring "a fresh set of ideas" to the Falcons, Coach Mike Smith said. Still, Koetter's unit in Jacksonville finished last in total offense in 2011.

Mike Tice, Chicago — Tice, promoted from coaching the offensive line, is an offensive coordinator for the first time and takes over for the fired Mike Martz.

Bob Bratkowski, Jacksonville — Bratkowski is reunited with Jaguars Coach Mike Mularkey, his staff-mate in Atlanta. The challenge: turning Blaine Gabbert into an NFL quarterback.

Brad Childress, Cleveland — Childress and Browns Coach Pat Shurmur spent seven years together on Andy Reid's staff in Philadelphia.

As you take note this sunday its good to have next weeks lines next to the teams

week 5 lines

stl -3
cin -3
gb -10
ba;-3
ten pk
atl -3
nyg -9
pit -3
car -4
chi -3
ne -8
sf -7
no -6
tex -1

adjustment are made after week 4 games come to a end

enjoy and do your home work

ace

Market Report: What Sharps Think in Week Four NFL


Things aren’t as topsy turvy in the NFL as the media is suggesting right now. But, there are some good teams with surprisingly poor records. The market has been trying to determine how much “need to win” matters when Super Bowl contenders like New England and Green Bay start off the season 1-2. Those teams were involved in dicey finishes last week, which caused the media to overstate how “random” the game-to-game results were becoming across the league.
Hopefully officiating will be better this weekend given recent developments, and everyone can go back to remembering that good quarterbacks usually beat bad quarterbacks regardless of who’s officiating.
Let’s check in and see what the sharps are thinking about this week’s games. Note that Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have byes (the first of the year), so there are only 15 games on the NFL board…


CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE: Not much interest from sharps here. We’ve seen a slight tick from -12 to -12.5 in a handful of places. Many sharps are still way down on Brandon Weeden. But, there are some old school guys who automatically back double digit dogs for historical reasons. That worked with Arizona over New England two weeks ago, and Kansas City at the opening price in New Orleans last week. The total has dropped a shade from 45 to 44.


NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: Buffalo got strong support here as a divisional home dog. They opened +6 but have been bet down to +4. Sharps do like to go against New England’s soft defense with decent quarterbacks. Fitzpatrick has put some points on the board vs. the Pats recently. The total is up from 50 to 51.5 or 52 because of the same reasoning. Some anti-New England personnel issues in the mix there as well.


MINNESOTA AT DETROIT: There’s no line yet on this game as we go to press because Stafford’s availability is still in question. He’s such an important quarterback in terms of his team’s projected performance that Vegas won’t even post any “feeler” lines unless they have to on game day.


CAROLINA AT ATLANTA: The only move here has been on the total, as an opener of is down to 49 or 48.5 because of Cam Newton’s shaky play this year and Atlanta’s shutdown of Philip Rivers and San Diego last week. The team side opened at -7 and is staying there. Sharps would fade any public move based on what we’re hearing…backing Carolina at +7.5 as a divisional dog, but liking well-playing Atlanta at -6.5.


SAN FRANCISCO AT NY JETS: Just a half point move here, with SF opening at -3.5 and moving up to -4. Any opener above the key number of three tells you that oddsmakers expect the sharps to like the favorite…and they’re not giving them that critical number. Sharps didn’t expect the public to play the Jets the way they’ve looked the past two weeks. If anything, sharps are concerned the public will play San Francisco in the bounce-back sport. They jumped in early so scores like 14-10, 17-13, 24-20, or 28-24 would be winners rather than pushes or late pointspread losses were the line to keep scooting up.


SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY: We flipped favorites here, as San Diego opened at -1.5 on the road, only to see sharps hit the Chiefs so that Kansas City is now laying a point. The Chiefs did play better last week after a slow start, matching what happened for them in 2011. San Diego looked so vulnerable vs. Atlanta that the market wouldn’t accept them as a road favorite vs. this divisional rival. The total is down from 46 to 45.


TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON: The Texans have been bet up from -11 to -12, with a chance to go to -12.5 from what we’re hearing. That’s important because it over-rode the old school passion for big dogs. Even though those guys took the big dog, so much Houston money came in on the favorite that the line went up anyway. Note that the public is likely to back Houston on game day given that team’s blowouts of Miami and Jacksonville (comparable opponents). Some of this early money was position-taking for middles in case squares did take the line to -13 or -14. The total is up from 43.5 to 45 given the lack of defense shown by the Titans last week vs. Detroit and earlier vs. New England.


SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS: The only move of note here was on the total, as an opener of 40.5 is down to 38.5. Seattle’s playing low scoring grinders. St. Louis showed offensive issues last week in Chicago. Frankly, a bad opener from the oddsmakers here based on team tendencies. The Seahawks are laying 2.5 points, which is our first teaser window game. St. Louis +8.5 will be a popular choice for sharps in two-team teasers because line movement would cross the 3 and the 7.


MIAMI AT ARIZONA: The total was of more interest to sharps again here, with an opener of 41 dropping to 39.5. Sharps like what they’ve seen from Arizona’s defense, and figure they can keep the solid play going vs. a visiting rookie quarterback. They’d prefer to express that interest on the total rather than laying -6 or higher with Kevin Kolb. They’ve soured on him in general. All three Cardinals wins have been “defensive” wins.


OAKLAND AT DENVER: Support for Denver at the opener of -6 has lifted the line to -6.5. It hasn’t gone all the way to -7 though. Oakland did show signs of life while upsetting Pittsburgh last week. And, this is a rivalry both teams take seriously. Sharps would like hit the rivalry underdog if the public moved the number up to the key number of seven. The total is up a tick or two from an opener of 47.5 based on what’s seen as softening defenses based on what we’ve heard in discussions with sharps.


CINCINNATI AT JACKSONVILLE: This won’t be a highly bet game in Vegas. Though, the late start will give it a larger handle than normal. The total is up from 41.5 to 42.5 or 43 because Andy Dalton has been putting up numbers. Sharps would rather bet the Over with him than ask for a second straight good game from what’s probably a non-playoff team. The Bengals are -2, which would put Jacksonville in the teaser window.


NEW ORLEANS AT GREEN BAY: This was supposed to be the showcase game of the day! Instead, we have an 0-3 team visiting a 1-2 team and it’s very likely that at least one of these teams will miss the playoffs. There’s still plenty of time for Green Bay to recover from MNF’s robbery. They’d better snap into form here though. It’s not like they really played well vs. Seattle, or the prior week vs. Chicago. No movement yet…because sharps don’t want to lay the -7.5 against a strong offense. A total of 54 has scared everyone away for now.


WASHINGTON AT TAMPA BAY: Vegas opened TB -2.5 figuring people were looking to bet RGIII against a team with no offense. Sharps zigged the other way though, impressed with Tampa Bay’s defense. The Bucs are now -3 in most places. The total has fallen from 49 to 47.5 or 47. Another bad opener. Tampa Bay’s defense shone vs. Carolina and Dallas, and Washington’s throwing mostly conservative passes with Griffin.


NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: The total is down a point from 48 to 47, with the Eagles sitting at -2 on the team side. Sharps don’t trust Michael Vick at all. Those interested in taking the Giants are waiting to see if the public will drive the favorite up in this Sunday Night TV game. No reason to bet NYG at +2 in terms of point value unless it’s almost kickoff and that’s the best you’re going to get. If there’s no line move, sharps liking NYG will be focused on two-team teasers, where they can cross the 3 and the 7 for +8.


CHICAGO AT DALLAS: Big move on the total here, with an opener of 45 falling all the way to 42 or 41.5. Again, you get the sense that oddsmakers haven’t been watching any games! The Cowboys have played three Unders so far. Chicago was way Under its last two games. On the team side, Dallas opened at -3 and was bet up to -3.5. They still get respect at home from sharps when prices are that low.

Thanks for all the info. How many 411 plays this week?

CrazyK said:

Thanks for all the info. How many 411 plays this week?

Click to expand...

2

my day has a kind of formula to it that will deliberately complicate in order to keep yourself from the old ennui.
working with a team will produce better results with less of an energy expenditure.


hope your day bring in the $$$

Ace

Thanks for the info Ace.

Sounds profound but I'm not sure what it means :think2:....LOL

.....

Not looking good Ace!

Yeah...New England has some shitty ass D. I was kind of surprise it was a 411 play after seeing their defense choke against baltimore.

Investment plays 1-3 -$4550.00
Action plays 6-8 -$1574.00
Total 7-11 -$6124.00

whats going on this year Ace? your mind doesnt seem on the game, and today looks like the way its going will be another dent in BR, hopefully plays turn around for you today. GL

Ace I KNOW your 411 system goes by stats, HOW did it come up with New England with the stats it has put up this year? Regardless of the outcome of this game, tell your backers how New England is a play and NOT Houston according to #'s?

thank the gods for Buffalo's turn overs today, bet looking better and better every ticking second

$500.00-110 Take #223 Cincinnati (-2.5) over Jacksonville (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
I like this Bengals team. They are playing very strong football and they were able to beat a good Redskins team on the road last week. Cincinnati has been very good against teams that are below .500 over the past few seasons, and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record. The Jaguars are coming off a shocking road win over rival Indianapolis. But this team is beat up on the defense and on the offensive line and could again be without two key offensive line starters. The favorite is 11-5-1 ATS in this series and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I will go with the more established team here and I don't see the Bengals losing this one outright.

NBA FANATIC said:

Ace I KNOW your 411 system goes by stats, HOW did it come up with New England with the stats it has put up this year? Regardless of the outcome of this game, tell your backers how New England is a play and NOT Houston according to #'s?

Click to expand...

it fit over 28 diff views....numbers was better than hou......112 to 62...50 points dif////

$800.00 -110 Take #227 Washington (+3) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
I think that Washington is undervalued here and I think that they will win this game outright. Robert Griffin III does not look like a rookie. He is leading a very explosive offense that is very difficult to stop. Tampa Bay is going to be tired after back-to-back road trips to New York and Dallas to play grueling games. They lost both of those games because their defense couldn't get key stops and I think that Washington will top 30 points again this week. The Redskins were able to win in New Orleans to open the year so they won't be afraid of playing in Tampa this week. Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense looks terrible. They will not be able to exploit the Redskins secondary. In a game of two teams that may be even on paper I will take the points and the much better offense. Washington wins this one.

ACE-ACE said:

it fit over 28 diff views....numbers was better than hou......112 to 62...50 points dif////

Click to expand...

OK boss if you say so. But with this years stats for both sides can't see where it would favor NE in 28 different views, but so be it, nice win.