2012 MLB O/U Record: 342-320-46, -$1,814 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 2-2-1 day yesterday, even though I was up, which is always the most important thing, but considering how some of those games played out, it was a little disheartening. I mean, Eovaldi vs Medlen under was blown in the 9th by the bullpen (Fourth time in SIX days that’s happened to me, although this one wasn’t as drastic as the other three instances so I won’t complain), and my reasoning in taking the Collmenter vs Lincecum under was spot-on, as my love for Collmenter led me to believe he would be remarkable in his spot-start, which he absolutely was, but unfortunately, Lincecum inexplicably shit the bed even though he’s been tremendous the past month-and-a-half, which is why I usually avoid Tim Lincecum over/unders. But at the very least, it was a positive night from a mental standpoint, since I was right on just about everything, making me feel good asI looked at the Wednesday slate in providing myself with the following card…
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets (Co-Best Bet) - Price TBD
Jeff Locke vs Jeremy Hefner
UNDER 8.5
You guys know I don’t like dealing with variables, and there’s certainly one here as it pertains to young Jeremy Hefner. In his last start, which I had the over, he didn’t record a SINGLE OUT, as the Phillies jumped all over him in the top of the first at Citi Field, en route to a blow-out (And over) victory. I mean, that’s pretty rare because that happens to a starter… once or twice a season? Does something like that even happen every year? I don’t think so, but alas, it’s a variable we must contend with. However, it’s not a bad thing when you know the pitcher is someone who can be on the rise, which I feel is the case with Jeremy Hefner, who I’ve detailed af ew times before, even as early in his first start this season, which was his first career start, period (Against my boy Eric Stults! Also at Citi Field inthe “Rain Delay Game” when said rain delay cost me the under, as well as Hefner a successful first start after cruising before it! Ugh). In his last start, though, when he gave up six hits, one walk, and seven runs without retiring anyone (Yikes), it was also a difficult scenario for Hefner, as he had previously been moved back into the bullpen inexplicably, and when you shuffle a young guy back and forth between starting and relieving, it can be difficult mentally. At least in this case, Hefner will be more prepared, and CERTAINLY should be motivated to atone for the disaster that occurred less than a week ago. The main thing to know is that Hefner is much better than what happened Thursday, and should be at least pretty good against a Pirates offense that has been mostly sputtering over these past couple of weeks.
This under may be all about investing int he potential of young Jeff Locke, a guy I first noticed when he popped ontothe scene towards the end of last year and pitched pretty good. In 2012, Locke had a fantastic year in Triple-A, so much so that I actually believe he’ll be starting next year at the Major League level. Thus far into his 2012 Major League journey, he’s been alright, but his 5.47 ERA doesn’t tell the full story. He actually just struck out a career-high 8, and albeit coming against Houston, it was still a pretty impressive start that the young southpaw and can build on, as he has a favorable matchup tonight against the Mets, who aren’t particularly good against left-handed pitching. The bottom line is this: Locke has loads of potential and in my mind, will absolutely be a good pitcher for years. That may not mean now, but he’s shown more than flashes of it, and based on how his last start went (Even if it was only five innings against the worst team in baseball), I think he’ll end the year strong, before he potentially becomes a major name next year.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros (Co-Best Bet) - Price TBD
Chris Carpenter vs Bud Norris
UNDER 8
Bud Norris. Bud Norris. Bud Norris. I bet all of you never met someone more obsessed with Bud Norris (And other random pitchers like Lucas Harrell, Blake Beavan, and Danny Duffy... I miss Danny Duffy), nor did you meet or read someone more knowledgeable concerning him. I mean, I know this guy so well that even when I “lose” an over/under of his, I’ll even give you a contingency parlay that would win your money back! (Ex. Last week’s Norris/Garcia matchup when Norris had the flu; I said to also bet the over and Cardinals ML in case the under lost, which offset each other) I’ve been fantastic with him this season, just as in years’ past, which was to be expected, considering he’s been my favorite pitcher ever since debuting in 2009 (When his impressive rookie season was critical in the Astros going OVER 73 wins in my biggest all-time bet). In fact, as I’ve mentioned a few times before, his very first start came against these same Cardinals, when he tossed seven incredible shut-out innings of two-hit ball against them on the road, which is a bit surprising looking back on it because there’s a pretty significant discrepancy between his home and road splits. We won’t have to worry about that tonight, as Norris has been far, farrrr superior home at Minute Maid Park, which is where he’ll be tonight. He should also be in a good state mentally because not only is he facing the team he has excelled the most against more than any other, but also, he wants to atone for how his last outing went when the flu cost him a good outing. Norris actually wasn’t even that bad other than the first inning, but the walks caught up to him, and with him at full health now, I think he’ll be fully motivated in ending the season strong. If there’s one characteristic I love about Bud Norris, it’s that he’s a very prideful pitcher, and will want to make this thing as right as he can, that being his 2012 season. I cannot picture him ending the campaign with an ERA over 5, which is where it stands now. But the main reason to love about him being in this under is that he’s always owned St. Louis (7-5 in 14 starts, 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) throughout his still-young career.
Then there is Chris Carpenter, who wasn’t his normal sharp self in his season debut last Friday against the Cubs and Chris Volstad (When I literally got screwed out of the under when it was 4-2 in the 9th with two outs, two strikes, and no one on! Luckily ended up with a push, at least), but he wasn’t bad either, as he was on pace for the win before his bullpen blew it. The important thing is that he acknowledges he wasn’t sharp, and since he’s not feeling content, how do you think he’s going to go out there in his next start, that being tonight? He’s going to be hungry and motivated to get himself set in the way he wants to be as the Cardinals roll into the postseason. That’s not even a given, either, so he also recognizes his starts carry the highest of importance, knowing his team isn’t even officially in the playoffs yet. Considering the fact that Carpenter has always been good against Houston, especially last year (1-0 in 2 starts, 1.13 ERA, 0.75 WHIP), he can be trusted to give us an outstanding effort tonight. He’s always been a workhorse so this absolutely isn’t an opportunity that he’s taking for granted. At the end of the day, this should be a good matchup between two talented pitchers on this Wednesday night in Houston.
Other 9/26 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Josh Johnson vs Paul Maholm UNDER 7.5 - $24 for $20
Felix Hernandez vs CJ Wilson UNDER 7 - $21 for $20
John Lannan vs Kyle Kendrick OVER 8/8.5 - Price TBD (Waiting to see if it drops to 8)
Justin Masterson vs Hector Santiago OVER 8.5/9 - Price TBD (Waiting to see if it drops to 8.5)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Disappointing 2-2-1 day yesterday, even though I was up, which is always the most important thing, but considering how some of those games played out, it was a little disheartening. I mean, Eovaldi vs Medlen under was blown in the 9th by the bullpen (Fourth time in SIX days that’s happened to me, although this one wasn’t as drastic as the other three instances so I won’t complain), and my reasoning in taking the Collmenter vs Lincecum under was spot-on, as my love for Collmenter led me to believe he would be remarkable in his spot-start, which he absolutely was, but unfortunately, Lincecum inexplicably shit the bed even though he’s been tremendous the past month-and-a-half, which is why I usually avoid Tim Lincecum over/unders. But at the very least, it was a positive night from a mental standpoint, since I was right on just about everything, making me feel good asI looked at the Wednesday slate in providing myself with the following card…
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets (Co-Best Bet) - Price TBD
Jeff Locke vs Jeremy Hefner
UNDER 8.5
You guys know I don’t like dealing with variables, and there’s certainly one here as it pertains to young Jeremy Hefner. In his last start, which I had the over, he didn’t record a SINGLE OUT, as the Phillies jumped all over him in the top of the first at Citi Field, en route to a blow-out (And over) victory. I mean, that’s pretty rare because that happens to a starter… once or twice a season? Does something like that even happen every year? I don’t think so, but alas, it’s a variable we must contend with. However, it’s not a bad thing when you know the pitcher is someone who can be on the rise, which I feel is the case with Jeremy Hefner, who I’ve detailed af ew times before, even as early in his first start this season, which was his first career start, period (Against my boy Eric Stults! Also at Citi Field inthe “Rain Delay Game” when said rain delay cost me the under, as well as Hefner a successful first start after cruising before it! Ugh). In his last start, though, when he gave up six hits, one walk, and seven runs without retiring anyone (Yikes), it was also a difficult scenario for Hefner, as he had previously been moved back into the bullpen inexplicably, and when you shuffle a young guy back and forth between starting and relieving, it can be difficult mentally. At least in this case, Hefner will be more prepared, and CERTAINLY should be motivated to atone for the disaster that occurred less than a week ago. The main thing to know is that Hefner is much better than what happened Thursday, and should be at least pretty good against a Pirates offense that has been mostly sputtering over these past couple of weeks.
This under may be all about investing int he potential of young Jeff Locke, a guy I first noticed when he popped ontothe scene towards the end of last year and pitched pretty good. In 2012, Locke had a fantastic year in Triple-A, so much so that I actually believe he’ll be starting next year at the Major League level. Thus far into his 2012 Major League journey, he’s been alright, but his 5.47 ERA doesn’t tell the full story. He actually just struck out a career-high 8, and albeit coming against Houston, it was still a pretty impressive start that the young southpaw and can build on, as he has a favorable matchup tonight against the Mets, who aren’t particularly good against left-handed pitching. The bottom line is this: Locke has loads of potential and in my mind, will absolutely be a good pitcher for years. That may not mean now, but he’s shown more than flashes of it, and based on how his last start went (Even if it was only five innings against the worst team in baseball), I think he’ll end the year strong, before he potentially becomes a major name next year.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros (Co-Best Bet) - Price TBD
Chris Carpenter vs Bud Norris
UNDER 8
Bud Norris. Bud Norris. Bud Norris. I bet all of you never met someone more obsessed with Bud Norris (And other random pitchers like Lucas Harrell, Blake Beavan, and Danny Duffy... I miss Danny Duffy), nor did you meet or read someone more knowledgeable concerning him. I mean, I know this guy so well that even when I “lose” an over/under of his, I’ll even give you a contingency parlay that would win your money back! (Ex. Last week’s Norris/Garcia matchup when Norris had the flu; I said to also bet the over and Cardinals ML in case the under lost, which offset each other) I’ve been fantastic with him this season, just as in years’ past, which was to be expected, considering he’s been my favorite pitcher ever since debuting in 2009 (When his impressive rookie season was critical in the Astros going OVER 73 wins in my biggest all-time bet). In fact, as I’ve mentioned a few times before, his very first start came against these same Cardinals, when he tossed seven incredible shut-out innings of two-hit ball against them on the road, which is a bit surprising looking back on it because there’s a pretty significant discrepancy between his home and road splits. We won’t have to worry about that tonight, as Norris has been far, farrrr superior home at Minute Maid Park, which is where he’ll be tonight. He should also be in a good state mentally because not only is he facing the team he has excelled the most against more than any other, but also, he wants to atone for how his last outing went when the flu cost him a good outing. Norris actually wasn’t even that bad other than the first inning, but the walks caught up to him, and with him at full health now, I think he’ll be fully motivated in ending the season strong. If there’s one characteristic I love about Bud Norris, it’s that he’s a very prideful pitcher, and will want to make this thing as right as he can, that being his 2012 season. I cannot picture him ending the campaign with an ERA over 5, which is where it stands now. But the main reason to love about him being in this under is that he’s always owned St. Louis (7-5 in 14 starts, 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) throughout his still-young career.
Then there is Chris Carpenter, who wasn’t his normal sharp self in his season debut last Friday against the Cubs and Chris Volstad (When I literally got screwed out of the under when it was 4-2 in the 9th with two outs, two strikes, and no one on! Luckily ended up with a push, at least), but he wasn’t bad either, as he was on pace for the win before his bullpen blew it. The important thing is that he acknowledges he wasn’t sharp, and since he’s not feeling content, how do you think he’s going to go out there in his next start, that being tonight? He’s going to be hungry and motivated to get himself set in the way he wants to be as the Cardinals roll into the postseason. That’s not even a given, either, so he also recognizes his starts carry the highest of importance, knowing his team isn’t even officially in the playoffs yet. Considering the fact that Carpenter has always been good against Houston, especially last year (1-0 in 2 starts, 1.13 ERA, 0.75 WHIP), he can be trusted to give us an outstanding effort tonight. He’s always been a workhorse so this absolutely isn’t an opportunity that he’s taking for granted. At the end of the day, this should be a good matchup between two talented pitchers on this Wednesday night in Houston.
Other 9/26 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Josh Johnson vs Paul Maholm UNDER 7.5 - $24 for $20
Felix Hernandez vs CJ Wilson UNDER 7 - $21 for $20
John Lannan vs Kyle Kendrick OVER 8/8.5 - Price TBD (Waiting to see if it drops to 8)
Justin Masterson vs Hector Santiago OVER 8.5/9 - Price TBD (Waiting to see if it drops to 8.5)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
