2012 MLB O/U Record: 348-321-47, -$1,566 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, people. It’s the final weekend of the regular season, meaning that this is the LAST FRIDAY of 2012. Like I said the other day, that’s how I’m approaching things to make sure my mindset is 200-percent on baseball and nothing else, and it’s a technique that works, as proven in my 7-1-1 effort over the past two days, with the one “loss” actually being a game (Mendoza vs Fister under) I could not have been anymore right on! So in actuality, I should be on an eight-game win streak (Or 9, since I won my last Tuesday night game) entering tonight, but regardless, the only issue at hand is this final Friday night slate. It’salways a standalone variable - the Friday effect, in which teams are usually beginning their weekend series in style on a Friday night (EXCEPT if it’s a Cubs’ home game, in which case it occurs on a Friday afternoon). Let’s examine a regular season Friday night one last time…
SeattleMariners @ Oakland Athletics (Best Bet) - $92 for $80
Blake Beavan vs AJ Griffin
UNDER 7.5
There hasn’t been one other person in the country more on-point with Blake Beavan this year than me. Period. Call it arrogance if you want, but it’s just a matter of fact. I boldly came on here one of my first days in the beginning of the season and spoke in-depth about how Beavan was my *No. 1 Sleeper* coming into the 2012 season, and at 10-10 witha 4.64 ERA, it would appear at first-glance that I didn’t really deliver. However, you can’t blame Beavan, let alone me, for his up-and-down first half before he was sent down, as he had a start against Doug Fister on a Tuesday night (Who else would remember the day of the week off the top of their head? That’s how obsessed I am with him) where he got drilled by a line-drive, which undoubtedly hurt him mentally in a huge way, thus leading to struggles that ultimately got him sent down. That’s not his fault, as it’s human nature to alter your mindset after an experience like that, and in the case of Beavan, he was obviously taken out of his comfort zone, as opponents suddenly started to him as he lost his pinpoint command (Prior to that incident, he was doing just fine). Since being recalled, however? 7-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 12 starts. THAT is an impressive statline, and it’s only the tip of the iceberg as it pertains to Beavan becoming a legitimate upper-rotation Major League starter for many, many years. He’s coming off perhaps his finest outing of the year (7 shutout innings vs Texas on 9/22), which also came against his old team, so mentally, Beavan has to be feeling very good right now. And in what may be his last start of the season (I don’t look ahead in the schedule. It’s a stipulation of my over/under technique - never look a day, or more, ahead. Concentrate only on the day at hand), you know Beavan will want to end his first full year strong, and he’s got a wonderful opportunity to do that at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. It’s also a contest with playoff implications, since the division rival A’s are involved, so I expected Beavan to come to this Friday night affair with only his best stuff.
The reason most people are excited for this potential under probably has more to do with Oakland’s hot young rookie AJ Griffin, who has grabbed much attention out of nowhere. With a 6-1 record, 2.80 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP, not to mention 60 punch-outs in just over 70 innings pitched, it’s no wonder how Griffin has vaulted up the list as one of baseball’s most interesting rookie sensations. The feel-good story is on the verge of evaporating a bit, though, as for the first time in his very young career, Griffin has started to get hit, albeit in two tough road assignments. Griffiin’s first rough patch consists of him giving up nine combined runs - he allowed just 14 in his prior 11 starts - against the Yankees and Tigers, but luckily, his start tonight sees him back within the cozy confines of The Coliseum, where he has a 2.67 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, while registering a microscopic .189 opposing batting average. He’s also been a much better nighttime pitcher than during the day so that also could contribute to him getting back on track in this particular outing. Oakland can’t waste any of their precious remaining games as they seek to hold on to their postseason position, and as a result, Griffin should be in top form. It’s a very favorable matchup, too, as Seattle’s offense is relatively one of the lesser intimidating groups in the American League, and he’s had success against them before when he fired five-plus innings of one-run ball three weeks ago, while striking outs even. I am actually SHOCKED that the line is as high as 7.5 (There have been absolutely been inferior pitching matchups in Oakland this year and last year that had lines of 7 or even 6.5), but that’s something we’ll take from the linesmakers, who apparently think Griffin has hit his ceiling and is still on the way down. I don’t think that’s the case, and I know, without question, that Beavan will do his thing for us. It’s beautiful we can win with a 4-3 score. Just beautiful.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians (Slightly Less Best Bet) - $84 for $70
Will Smith vs David Huff
OVER 8.5
Ah, Will Smith. It’s nice to see he made it to the end of the season in one piece, as I predicted in his VERY FIRST CAREER START (At Yankee Stadium) that he wouldn’t last long in the Royals rotation. I was right that day, as he was given a rude welcome to the Major Leagues by the vaunted Yankees’ line-up, but I must say, I was somewhat wrong about him in the starts after, as Smith has actually done a fine job in perhaps winning a spot at the bottom of Kansas City’s rotation next year. His numbers aren’t outstanding or anything (6-8, 4.88 ERA), but he has fared much better than I initially thought, or has he? Smith still has this start, and possibly one other to go, so it’s not like he’s escaped unscathed just yet. It’s possible the rookie southpaw can still enter unwanted territory, that being the dreaded 5+ ERA. If this over pans out like I believe it will, then that is more than possible. It’s going to be a team effort, though, as we also need David Huff to get hit around a little bit, and if you look at his season numbers (2-0, 2.25 ERA), you might not be very confident in that sentiment. However, that’s with as mall sample size, and as I detailed in one of his very first starts this year several weeks back, Huff always gets out to strong starts before entering some sort of tailspin, which is why I avoided his overs early on. In fact, in 2011, Huff only yielded one run combined over his first three starts, and he’s done similar work in 2012. This, however, is the point where that changes, and against an angry Royals’ offense that lost a bunch of close games in Detroit just recently, they’ll want to solidify their position in the middle of the AL Central against the rival Indians, and thus, there could be some real fireworks tonight offensively. Let’s hope it happens, and the reason to bet big is that the line is 8.5 instead of the anticipated 9, meaning we can win with a very academic 6-3/5-4 outcome. We’ll take it.
Other 9/28 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Edwin Jackson vs Adam Wainwright UNDER 8 - $35 for $30
Edgar Gonzalez vs Yovani Gallardo OVER 8 - $33 for $30
Ryan Vogelsong vs Andrew Werner OVER 7 - $33 for $30
Travis Wood vs Ian Kennedy OVER 9 - $33 for $30
Homer Bailey vs AJ Burnett UNDER 7.5 - $30 for $25
Would Also Recommend, But Not Betting (Winning over 60-percent of these):
Drew Smyly vs Scott Diamond UNDER 9
Jeremy Hellickson vs Gavin Floyd OVER 8
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Okay, people. It’s the final weekend of the regular season, meaning that this is the LAST FRIDAY of 2012. Like I said the other day, that’s how I’m approaching things to make sure my mindset is 200-percent on baseball and nothing else, and it’s a technique that works, as proven in my 7-1-1 effort over the past two days, with the one “loss” actually being a game (Mendoza vs Fister under) I could not have been anymore right on! So in actuality, I should be on an eight-game win streak (Or 9, since I won my last Tuesday night game) entering tonight, but regardless, the only issue at hand is this final Friday night slate. It’salways a standalone variable - the Friday effect, in which teams are usually beginning their weekend series in style on a Friday night (EXCEPT if it’s a Cubs’ home game, in which case it occurs on a Friday afternoon). Let’s examine a regular season Friday night one last time…
SeattleMariners @ Oakland Athletics (Best Bet) - $92 for $80
Blake Beavan vs AJ Griffin
UNDER 7.5
There hasn’t been one other person in the country more on-point with Blake Beavan this year than me. Period. Call it arrogance if you want, but it’s just a matter of fact. I boldly came on here one of my first days in the beginning of the season and spoke in-depth about how Beavan was my *No. 1 Sleeper* coming into the 2012 season, and at 10-10 witha 4.64 ERA, it would appear at first-glance that I didn’t really deliver. However, you can’t blame Beavan, let alone me, for his up-and-down first half before he was sent down, as he had a start against Doug Fister on a Tuesday night (Who else would remember the day of the week off the top of their head? That’s how obsessed I am with him) where he got drilled by a line-drive, which undoubtedly hurt him mentally in a huge way, thus leading to struggles that ultimately got him sent down. That’s not his fault, as it’s human nature to alter your mindset after an experience like that, and in the case of Beavan, he was obviously taken out of his comfort zone, as opponents suddenly started to him as he lost his pinpoint command (Prior to that incident, he was doing just fine). Since being recalled, however? 7-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 12 starts. THAT is an impressive statline, and it’s only the tip of the iceberg as it pertains to Beavan becoming a legitimate upper-rotation Major League starter for many, many years. He’s coming off perhaps his finest outing of the year (7 shutout innings vs Texas on 9/22), which also came against his old team, so mentally, Beavan has to be feeling very good right now. And in what may be his last start of the season (I don’t look ahead in the schedule. It’s a stipulation of my over/under technique - never look a day, or more, ahead. Concentrate only on the day at hand), you know Beavan will want to end his first full year strong, and he’s got a wonderful opportunity to do that at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. It’s also a contest with playoff implications, since the division rival A’s are involved, so I expected Beavan to come to this Friday night affair with only his best stuff.
The reason most people are excited for this potential under probably has more to do with Oakland’s hot young rookie AJ Griffin, who has grabbed much attention out of nowhere. With a 6-1 record, 2.80 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP, not to mention 60 punch-outs in just over 70 innings pitched, it’s no wonder how Griffin has vaulted up the list as one of baseball’s most interesting rookie sensations. The feel-good story is on the verge of evaporating a bit, though, as for the first time in his very young career, Griffin has started to get hit, albeit in two tough road assignments. Griffiin’s first rough patch consists of him giving up nine combined runs - he allowed just 14 in his prior 11 starts - against the Yankees and Tigers, but luckily, his start tonight sees him back within the cozy confines of The Coliseum, where he has a 2.67 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, while registering a microscopic .189 opposing batting average. He’s also been a much better nighttime pitcher than during the day so that also could contribute to him getting back on track in this particular outing. Oakland can’t waste any of their precious remaining games as they seek to hold on to their postseason position, and as a result, Griffin should be in top form. It’s a very favorable matchup, too, as Seattle’s offense is relatively one of the lesser intimidating groups in the American League, and he’s had success against them before when he fired five-plus innings of one-run ball three weeks ago, while striking outs even. I am actually SHOCKED that the line is as high as 7.5 (There have been absolutely been inferior pitching matchups in Oakland this year and last year that had lines of 7 or even 6.5), but that’s something we’ll take from the linesmakers, who apparently think Griffin has hit his ceiling and is still on the way down. I don’t think that’s the case, and I know, without question, that Beavan will do his thing for us. It’s beautiful we can win with a 4-3 score. Just beautiful.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians (Slightly Less Best Bet) - $84 for $70
Will Smith vs David Huff
OVER 8.5
Ah, Will Smith. It’s nice to see he made it to the end of the season in one piece, as I predicted in his VERY FIRST CAREER START (At Yankee Stadium) that he wouldn’t last long in the Royals rotation. I was right that day, as he was given a rude welcome to the Major Leagues by the vaunted Yankees’ line-up, but I must say, I was somewhat wrong about him in the starts after, as Smith has actually done a fine job in perhaps winning a spot at the bottom of Kansas City’s rotation next year. His numbers aren’t outstanding or anything (6-8, 4.88 ERA), but he has fared much better than I initially thought, or has he? Smith still has this start, and possibly one other to go, so it’s not like he’s escaped unscathed just yet. It’s possible the rookie southpaw can still enter unwanted territory, that being the dreaded 5+ ERA. If this over pans out like I believe it will, then that is more than possible. It’s going to be a team effort, though, as we also need David Huff to get hit around a little bit, and if you look at his season numbers (2-0, 2.25 ERA), you might not be very confident in that sentiment. However, that’s with as mall sample size, and as I detailed in one of his very first starts this year several weeks back, Huff always gets out to strong starts before entering some sort of tailspin, which is why I avoided his overs early on. In fact, in 2011, Huff only yielded one run combined over his first three starts, and he’s done similar work in 2012. This, however, is the point where that changes, and against an angry Royals’ offense that lost a bunch of close games in Detroit just recently, they’ll want to solidify their position in the middle of the AL Central against the rival Indians, and thus, there could be some real fireworks tonight offensively. Let’s hope it happens, and the reason to bet big is that the line is 8.5 instead of the anticipated 9, meaning we can win with a very academic 6-3/5-4 outcome. We’ll take it.
Other 9/28 MLB Over/Under Bets I’m Taking:
Edwin Jackson vs Adam Wainwright UNDER 8 - $35 for $30
Edgar Gonzalez vs Yovani Gallardo OVER 8 - $33 for $30
Ryan Vogelsong vs Andrew Werner OVER 7 - $33 for $30
Travis Wood vs Ian Kennedy OVER 9 - $33 for $30
Homer Bailey vs AJ Burnett UNDER 7.5 - $30 for $25
Would Also Recommend, But Not Betting (Winning over 60-percent of these):
Drew Smyly vs Scott Diamond UNDER 9
Jeremy Hellickson vs Gavin Floyd OVER 8
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
