The Cat's MLB Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - September 29, 2012 - YTD: 352-324-47

2012 MLB O/U Record: 352-324-47, -$1,571 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Okay, fine 4-3 performance yesterday on the final Friday night of the season, but ended up just about even, as my best bets split… it’s unfortunate that errors got involved in the Beavan vs Griffin matchup (Passed ball directly leading to a run with two outs; A fluke force attempt error that would have been two outs and possibly no runs scoring in the entire inning), otherwise that under could have held on. At the very least, I added yet another no-hitter/perfect game under to my 2012 resume - my FIFTH one of the season, which just might be a Vegas record, actually, if you think about it. Now here we are, on the FINAL SATURDAY of the year, a day that has treated me surprisingly well in 2012 for the most part, unlike last season when it was, by far, my worst day of the week and only one under .500 (44-47-4). This year, I’m absolutely over .500 on Saturdays, so hopefully this final one exemplifies that considerable improvement…


Andy Pettitte vs Ricky Romero UNDER 9 - $28 for $25
There’s not much to say about AndyPettitte. It’s just marvelous how he’s still doing what he’s doing at this point in his career - which was originally over, remember - yet here he is still dominating opposing line-ups, as evident in his 2.71 ERA. He’s been especially stingy upon his return, having tossed 11 shutout innings in his two starts back. Obviously, that scoreless streak will probably end today, but as long as he gives us an outing that is even just slightly similar to his most recent work, we’ll be in good shape. To me, this under is more so about the progress of the mercurial Ricky Romero, who, as you can tell from my many, many times talking about him in great lengths, is one of my favorite pitchers, and even after his “nightmarish season” (His words, not mine), he still remains as such. Why? No. 1, I’m as loyal as they get (See: Blake Beavan when he had that 6+ ERA early in the season and I always stood by him), and No. 2, I know for a fact that Romero will bounce back from this. He finally has started making progress in the right direction, although not near the level we have grown accustomed to from him, but progress is progress, and as long as it’s making Ricky feel good mentally (Remember what I said earlier in the year about Ricky Romero being one of the most mentally-oriented starting pitchers in baseball. Couldn’t have been anymore right about that; the in-game situations that occur, even outside of his control, often dictate how he does against the ensuing batters), then that can lead to a pattern of effective pitching. Luckily for him, and for us as it pertains to this under, he’s actually had the most success against the Yankees recently, pumping out two quality starts against the club out of his past five (His only two quality starts in that stretch, actually), so hopefully he is able to sustain that momentum and end his season on a positive note. I can tell you, without question, from reading his personal quotes and tracking him closely for these past couple of years, Romero is as prideful as they get in Major League Baseball. We’ll definitely get the effort from him here today at Rogers Centre.


**Will Definitely Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**

Allow me to add that the one thing I'm worried with Ricky Romero, since I know him as well as anybody in the country, is that if one thing outside his control goes wrong, I'm afraid it could definitely snowball on his last start of the season. It is possible that he enters a "Are you fucking kidding me? Good thing it's my last start of this shitty 2012 season, let me just go through the motions and mercifully end it" mindset, but hopefully there's no variables that affect his mentality, and he'll be fine, as well as this under.

Also great to see Adeinny Hechavarria in the lineup today! Although the last time I said that for an under, he had the best offensive game of his career, so Law of Averages should dictate that a similar performance does not happen

Wow. I'm truthful with everything so I'll be the first to admit we just caught a huge break, given this is Ricky Romero involved. Here's what happened:

1st and 2nd for the Yankees with nobody out, when a groundball is hit right at second baseman Adeinny Hechavarria (Of course, who else would it be?). It was hit a bit hard, but certainly a play to make for a Major League second baseman, and it was a textbook double-play ball. He botches it, leading to bases-loaded, nobody out, and for a mentally-oriented pitcher like Romero, who visibily showed a lot of frustration when Hechavarria couldn't come up with it, that's basically a guarantee that runs will be scored. Somehow, Romero escaped the jam unscathed, capped off by a play by Hechavarria at second.

Very interesting that happened when you study Ricky Romero as much as I do. Trust me, that is HIGHLY unusual and if I had the over of this game, I would be quite unhappy with how that sequence played out. 9 times out of 10, against a mental case like Mr. Romero, there will be multiple runs in that instance.

Ugh. Romero leaves the game with an injury in the 4th when he was settling in nicely after that shaky first. Ironically, the man taking his place? SHAWN HILL. For longtime dedicated baseball fans, you might remember him having modest success with the Expos/Nationals, and back then, he was actually a HUGE sleeper of mine right before he began to emerge. Unfortunately, he had to undergo some type of serious surgery (Might have been Tommy John?), and thus, this is first appearance since 2010.

Always interesting to see a player come full-circle when you first recognized him early on his career before anyone else knew about him. Always loved this guy and have always rooted for him. He was sneaky good several years back; never overpowered guys but would pump out nothing but quality starts.

Anddd there's the inevitable bad break that was bound to happen. Third-base umpire Paul Schreiber rules a ball FAIR when replay showed it was foul on the infield, although A-Rod had no business fielding it since it was clearly going more foul anyway, and with a runner on third, two outs, AND Rajai Davis the hitter, I mean, that's just a terrible play all-around. Should've been ruled foul, but A-Rod had no business fielding it so I can't fault the ump that much, who's vision might have been blocked. Hopefully that run doesn't cost me the bet. Bad break

cat,i think detriot game goes over the total.Any thoughts?

mokoman said:

cat,i think detriot game goes over the total.Any thoughts?

Click to expand...

Ehhhh, I was leaning on the over as well, but that's a game I'm staying away from. One of the unwritten rules of over/unders that most people would agree with is to stay away from an over of 8 or higher when Justin Verlander is involved. In fact, the under hits A LOT more times than not when he's matched up against a clear inferior pitcher (Ex. Charlie Morton, Miguel Gonzalez, Corey Kluber, JA Happ). I mean, it would be logic to assume the Tigers will hit PJ Walters well, as he's been in a tailspin since his hot start when he first got called up. But you have to assume Verlander gives up one or two runs - at most - meaning you need Detroit to get at least six runs, and that's only for a push. If the line was 7.5, then I'd say go for it (Although it's unlikely Verlander starts in yet another 6-2 outcome; he's already been in two consecutive ones. Law of Averages), but at 8, I think it's best to just take a pass on that one.

Adding a couple of games from the 4 o'clock slate:

Ervin Santana vs Derek Holland UNDER 10 - $30 for $30
The last time I took an Ervin Santana under in Texas, it unraveled pretty quickly (Although it only lost by a run, of course, which added to my country-leading total in that department). The reason for doing that a couple of months ago was that I thought Santana would inevitably turn his season around - of course, I was 100-percent right, except I was just a few weeks off from that anticipated turning point. The fact is, Santana has pitched splendidly ever since his extensive horrific start, which has resulted in a nice run that has seen him bring his ERA down more than a full run. The right-hander has also been especially stingy as of late, allowing two runs or less in seven of his past nine starts. Even if he isn't that successful, we still have a lot of room to work with, given the line of 10. And with Derek Holland, we all know the book on him. There's not really an in-between with him; he either throws a shut out, which he led baseball in last year, or he gets hit hard. Holland has had mixed results against the Angels this year, but was at his best in his most recent start against them when he held the Halos to two runs in seven terrific innings. All we need is for him to be decent (Although he's a run-and-a-half worse at home than on the road) and we'll be in solid shape.

Jason Vargas vs Dan Straily UNDER 8 - $23 for $20
I've said it before and I'll say it again: It's not really a good thing when one of the main reasons for taking an over/under is the line itself. Betting mostly because of the line, which, remember, is only a NUMBER and shouldn't dictate your opinion on a pitching matchup, won't lead to any sort of consistent success. Period. But that's not my main reason for taking this under, as I feel Jason Vargas will end his impressive break-out 2012 campaign (Which also includes a Pitcher of the Month award from July) on a strong note, while Dan Straily is coming off perhaps his best outing to date (6+ IP, 1 ER @ Texas), which should give him confidence. I'm just shocked how Vegas has re-thought their mindset with these games in Oakland because normally, the line for a pitching matchup of this caliber would be 7 or 7.5 (Much like last night's Beavan vs Griffin would be 6.5 or 7 in Oakland nine times out of ten). But it is what it is and we'll take it. I'm just looking for an outstanding effort from one of these two hurlers and the rest should fall into place for an under victory

Feels good to win that Pettitte vs Romero under. With the money Ricky Romero has cost me this year (After being a sparkling 7-4 in his over/unders last year), I'm happy to at least make my 2012 record with him look a little bit better, while also getting a significant contribution from one of my top sleepers several years ago in Shawn Hill. Just a nice way to start the day and hopefully it continues. I posted my 4 o'clock games just above and will absolutely have a couple of night games as well, which will be posted later. GL to all

Solid afternoon, and as I write this, Vargas vs Straily under is 4-2 in the bottom of the 9th with one out and no one on so hopefully it holds. Let's see what I have from the night slate:

Jake Odorizzi vs Jeanmar Gomez UNDER 9 - $30 for $25
This can't be a big bet, due to the two starting pitchers involved. In one corner you have Jake Odorizzi, the high-ranked Kansas City prospect who is making his second career start against the team whom he had his first assignment against just less than a week ago. He fared well in that outing, before a bumpy middle-inning cost him a nice performance, but based on how he was throwing the ball and the poise he displayed throughout most of his Major League debut, he was impressive nonetheless. I think he can build on it and put the finishing touches on a nice start this time around - he certainly has the skillset. Then there is his opponent, Jeanmar Gomez, who, three years into his Major League career now, still doesn't have a real identity. He's had some good stretches (Specifically early on when he first popped onto the scene in 2010 and first caught my eye) and some bad ones; that's basically the book on Gomez. I've actually always liked him since he made his debut in 2010 and still believe he can carve out a spot somewhere along the bottom of Cleveland's rotation. I think we'll see more of the good side of him today; we certainly have a little wiggle room if that's not exactly the case with the line being 9. Let's give it a shot.

AHHHHHHH ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? YET ANOTHER RIDICULOUS BAD BEAT... this time, Tom Wilhemsen, one of the best closers in all of baseball this year with that shiny low 2's ERA, serves up a bottom-of-the-9th, game-tying, two-run homer... to Josh Donaldson? Are you fucking kidding me? So for the record, that's SIX FUCKING TIMES THIS HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST TEN DAYS - with NO good breaks whatsoever coming my way. You gotta be fucking kidding me

Also adding:

Chris Young vs Mike Minor OVER 7.5 - $29 for $25
Surprised the line is this low rather than 8. Both pitchers have been solid for much of the year, especially Mike Minor since his disastrous first couple of months when he was almost ousted from the rotation. In fact, most teams with shorter leashes certainly would have booted him out, but Atlanta's patience paid off, as Minor has been more than serviceable ever since. That is absolutely true for his past few starts, as he's given up just three runs combined in his past four starts. Interestingly, this is his first time facing New York since his very first start of the season when they tagged him for six runs in five innings. As for Chris Young, I just think he's going to get hit a bit. That's it. He's had a bit of an up-and-down season, and I think he'll be more on the down side in this game tonight.

Would Also Recommend, But Not Betting (Winning Over 60-Percent of These):
Zimmermann vs Lohse OVER 7.5 (I think at least one of these guy's ERAs takes a hit in their last start. I do not envision both pitchers finishing with an ERA below 3)

Adding one more:

Chatwood vs Blanton UNDER 8 - $24 for $20 (Got this in last night when the lines first came out)