Ranking NFL's most valuable players
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
He is the eighth name on the New York Jets' Week 4 injury report, just behind linebacker Nick Bellore and just in front of defensive tackle Mike Devito. Both of those guys are listed as "full participation in practice." But not Darrelle Revis. He gets the definitive and, considering the circumstances, understated "out (definitely will not play)."
But let's face it, we all know teams aren't throwing names on the injury list to be good sports and let opponents know who might or might not be playing. I think Tom Brady has been listed on every injury report since he paid Mo Lewis to knock Drew Bledsoe into a journeyman career. Other than the obvious injuries that coaches can't avoid adding to the list -- next week we might see "Josh Cribbs, nearly beheaded" -- these lists are as full of lies and deception as a night at a Nucky Thompson joint.
The lists are -- all together now -- for gambling purposes. Which means there's a column missing on these reports that would be just as valuable as a player's status and his name: What is his absence worth to the point spread?
This is something my Insider buddy Chris Sprow and I have been debating for years. In the days leading to the Indianapolils Colts-New Orleans Saints Super Bowl in 2010, I asked several bookmakers and wiseguys what they thought Peyton Manning was worth in point-spread value. The Colts, if you remember, were a statistically mediocre team that year. Their overall defense was just 18th. The running game averaged a middling 3.5 yards per carry. And yet, the line for that Super Bowl was posted as Colts minus-3.5. Within minutes it moved to Colts minus-5.5. Manning was that dominant presence, from an on-field perspective and from a public-perception perspective.
The Vegas guys thought Manning was worth seven points on his own. Taking into account how bad his backup, Curtis Painter, was, they tacked on three more. One player, 10 points. It's like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in baseball. We can call it Point Spread Value Above Replacement, because PSVAR just rolls off the tongue. Or, in a brazen bid for immortality, we can call them the Millman Rankings™. Because if Sagarin can do it, why they hell can't I? I have my own Insider column for god's sake.
Even in his first game back from neck surgery, playing for a new team after a year out of the league, you could see Peyton's value.
"Think about it this way," Todd Furhman of DonBest.com told me Wednesday night. "The Broncos were 8.5-point underdogs against the [Pittsburgh] Steelers in the playoffs when Tim Tebow was quarterback. With Peyton, in Week 1, they were 2.5-point favorites."
<offer>I asked Furhman and his Don Best colleague Kenny White to help me create a Millman Rankings™ list for today. In many ways, it's not very complicated and is something fans can do at home if they spend Sundays planted on the couch watching DirecTV's Red Zone channel. For example, there is no argument that the guys worth the most are going to be quarterbacks. Specifically, elite quarterbacks like Kevin Kolb. (Kidding, just wanted to make sure you were paying attention.)
Not surprisingly, the guys at the top and all worth 8-10 points given the combination of their value and the drop-off in their replacements. According to Fuhrman, these were his and White's top five (they will not be paid for their hand in creating the Millman Rankings™):
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Eli Manning
4. Tom Brady
5. Matt Ryan
Ryan sneaks his way on to the list because of the zone he's in right now and because his past two games have been high-profile wins. That's another factor to consider and it's something we preach from this perch in nearly every column: The public plays a role in every number you make. If Matt Ryan doesn't beat Peyton Manning on "Monday Night Football," and if he doesn't trip up the Chargers in San Diego, and if his backup isn't Luke McCown, then maybe Ben Roethlisberger is on this list instead. But because of those three things, right now Matt Ryan's PSVAR is higher than nearly anyone else's in pro football.
Of course, it's easy to rank the best players at the most important position in the most popular game in the history of modern American sports. Less easy is prescribing value to the guys who don't have their hands on the ball every play. And this is where wiseguys separate themselves, where all the work they do taping preseason games to learn about the second-string center or third-string corner pays off. This is when all the reading they do about whom the offense is running through or whom coaches trust the most finally amounts to something more than snide looks from the ladies who take one look at their velour track suits and say, "So, what do you do?"
For example, wiseguys know that the Detroit Lions can't perform without Calvin Johnson. (You won't see Matthew Stafford on the QB list because sharps know Shaun Hill is a perfectly capable backup.) And pro gamblers know that the Baltimore Ravens like to run their offense through Ray Rice. They definitely know that the offensive line is what truly makes the ball go. That's why, according to Fuhrman and White, the most valuable non-QBs on offense by position, with a PSVAR of two to three points, are:
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Ray Rice
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Nick Mangold
5. Jake Long
Now the next part is news that Wes Welker, he of the prolific receiving numbers and gritty intangibles and really funny cracks about Brady's metrosexuality, would not want his coach to see: Gamblers don't see him as very valuable at all.
"Interchangeable part," says Fuhrman. Same goes for all-purpose, though gimpy, Matt Forte. Good thing he already got his money.
This brings us back to Revis. We got a pretty good indication of what his PSVAR is this past week, when it was announced he was out for the season with an ACL injury. The Niners opened as 3.5-point favorites against the Jets. But as Fuhrman, who spent years as a bookmaker at Caesars, points out: "That would have been Niners minus-2.5 if Revis had been playing. And one point -- when it crosses a key number, such as this did by going over three -- is worth at least two points any other time."
So, here are the Millman Rankings™ for defenders with the highest PSVAR, with Revis topping the list at No. 2 with 2.5 points. All other players are worth one.
1. Darrelle Revis
2. Julius Peppers
3. Jared Allen
4. Haloti Ngata
Some people will dispute these ideas. That is what lists are for. I welcome your comments and feedback as we look to perfect and refine the Millman Rankings™. And I'm going to track this throughout the season. Because one day, with our help as well as recognition from the league that its popularity is somewhat due to gambling, the PSVAR will get its own column on the injury report, right next to some silly thing they call STATUS.
Week 4 Line moves
For the heck of it, I asked Fuhrman to run down five games in which he had seen some wiseguy action. Here is his rundown:
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
Line moves: Opened Cards minus-6.5, now Cards minus-5.5
Fuhrman says: "The sharp money came in on Miami. The perspective is really that Arizona has been playing as the underdog and you play with a different mentality when no one believes in you, instead of being the team everyone thinks is going to win. Hunter vs. Hunted. You don't surprise anyone anymore when the tables have turned like this. And when you are undefeated, you are always going to see someone's best effort."
[Editor's note: Interesting how little Reggie Bush and his injury are affecting this line. Clearly his PSVAR does not rate very high according to wiseguys.]
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Line moves: Opened Patriots minus-6, now Pats minus-4
Fuhrman says: "New England was bet down to four and that is more around the strength of this Bills team being its offensive line. You saw Tashard Choice rattle off 90 yards, so no one is worried about this team's game-breaking ability. The Pats are a little overvalued by bookmakers right now, and this is a divisional game in which the Bills can hang with them. The public is going to come in on the Pats at an 80 percent clip, so this will tick back up on Sunday."
[Editor's note: Interesting how little C.J. Spiller and his injury are impacting this line. Clearly his PSVAR does not rate very high according to wiseguys.]
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Line moves: Opened at Falcons minus-7.5, now Falcons minus-7
Fuhrman says: "Some of these sides are a little overvalued, and Atlanta is one of them. They had that great game against Denver, then a big win on the road in San Diego. But this is a divisional game in which Carolina had 10 days to prepare, for a team they match up pretty well with."
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Line moves: Opened at Packers minus-7.5, now Packers minus-7.5
Fuhrman says: "I know I will be on an island, but I think New Orleans catching plus-7.5 is a rich number. I actually think if the Packers win on Monday night, this game is a little shorter because people are assuming Green Bay is going to come out and play with its hair on fire. I think 6.5 is the right number on this. By using a 7.5, the book has flexibility because they can go has high as 9.5 if the public comes in on Green Bay because there is really no difference between those two numbers. Those are dead numbers."
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Line moves: Opened at Eagles minus-2, now Eagles minus-1
Fuhrman says: "I think the Eagles are in a good spot on Sunday night. Everyone saw how awful they looked and how great the Giants looked. If this game was played two weeks ago, the Eagles would have been much bigger favorites. This is all perception."
</offer>
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
He is the eighth name on the New York Jets' Week 4 injury report, just behind linebacker Nick Bellore and just in front of defensive tackle Mike Devito. Both of those guys are listed as "full participation in practice." But not Darrelle Revis. He gets the definitive and, considering the circumstances, understated "out (definitely will not play)."
But let's face it, we all know teams aren't throwing names on the injury list to be good sports and let opponents know who might or might not be playing. I think Tom Brady has been listed on every injury report since he paid Mo Lewis to knock Drew Bledsoe into a journeyman career. Other than the obvious injuries that coaches can't avoid adding to the list -- next week we might see "Josh Cribbs, nearly beheaded" -- these lists are as full of lies and deception as a night at a Nucky Thompson joint.
The lists are -- all together now -- for gambling purposes. Which means there's a column missing on these reports that would be just as valuable as a player's status and his name: What is his absence worth to the point spread?
This is something my Insider buddy Chris Sprow and I have been debating for years. In the days leading to the Indianapolils Colts-New Orleans Saints Super Bowl in 2010, I asked several bookmakers and wiseguys what they thought Peyton Manning was worth in point-spread value. The Colts, if you remember, were a statistically mediocre team that year. Their overall defense was just 18th. The running game averaged a middling 3.5 yards per carry. And yet, the line for that Super Bowl was posted as Colts minus-3.5. Within minutes it moved to Colts minus-5.5. Manning was that dominant presence, from an on-field perspective and from a public-perception perspective.
The Vegas guys thought Manning was worth seven points on his own. Taking into account how bad his backup, Curtis Painter, was, they tacked on three more. One player, 10 points. It's like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in baseball. We can call it Point Spread Value Above Replacement, because PSVAR just rolls off the tongue. Or, in a brazen bid for immortality, we can call them the Millman Rankings™. Because if Sagarin can do it, why they hell can't I? I have my own Insider column for god's sake.
Even in his first game back from neck surgery, playing for a new team after a year out of the league, you could see Peyton's value.
"Think about it this way," Todd Furhman of DonBest.com told me Wednesday night. "The Broncos were 8.5-point underdogs against the [Pittsburgh] Steelers in the playoffs when Tim Tebow was quarterback. With Peyton, in Week 1, they were 2.5-point favorites."
<offer>I asked Furhman and his Don Best colleague Kenny White to help me create a Millman Rankings™ list for today. In many ways, it's not very complicated and is something fans can do at home if they spend Sundays planted on the couch watching DirecTV's Red Zone channel. For example, there is no argument that the guys worth the most are going to be quarterbacks. Specifically, elite quarterbacks like Kevin Kolb. (Kidding, just wanted to make sure you were paying attention.)
Not surprisingly, the guys at the top and all worth 8-10 points given the combination of their value and the drop-off in their replacements. According to Fuhrman, these were his and White's top five (they will not be paid for their hand in creating the Millman Rankings™):
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Eli Manning
4. Tom Brady
5. Matt Ryan
Ryan sneaks his way on to the list because of the zone he's in right now and because his past two games have been high-profile wins. That's another factor to consider and it's something we preach from this perch in nearly every column: The public plays a role in every number you make. If Matt Ryan doesn't beat Peyton Manning on "Monday Night Football," and if he doesn't trip up the Chargers in San Diego, and if his backup isn't Luke McCown, then maybe Ben Roethlisberger is on this list instead. But because of those three things, right now Matt Ryan's PSVAR is higher than nearly anyone else's in pro football.
Of course, it's easy to rank the best players at the most important position in the most popular game in the history of modern American sports. Less easy is prescribing value to the guys who don't have their hands on the ball every play. And this is where wiseguys separate themselves, where all the work they do taping preseason games to learn about the second-string center or third-string corner pays off. This is when all the reading they do about whom the offense is running through or whom coaches trust the most finally amounts to something more than snide looks from the ladies who take one look at their velour track suits and say, "So, what do you do?"
For example, wiseguys know that the Detroit Lions can't perform without Calvin Johnson. (You won't see Matthew Stafford on the QB list because sharps know Shaun Hill is a perfectly capable backup.) And pro gamblers know that the Baltimore Ravens like to run their offense through Ray Rice. They definitely know that the offensive line is what truly makes the ball go. That's why, according to Fuhrman and White, the most valuable non-QBs on offense by position, with a PSVAR of two to three points, are:
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Ray Rice
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Nick Mangold
5. Jake Long
Now the next part is news that Wes Welker, he of the prolific receiving numbers and gritty intangibles and really funny cracks about Brady's metrosexuality, would not want his coach to see: Gamblers don't see him as very valuable at all.
"Interchangeable part," says Fuhrman. Same goes for all-purpose, though gimpy, Matt Forte. Good thing he already got his money.
This brings us back to Revis. We got a pretty good indication of what his PSVAR is this past week, when it was announced he was out for the season with an ACL injury. The Niners opened as 3.5-point favorites against the Jets. But as Fuhrman, who spent years as a bookmaker at Caesars, points out: "That would have been Niners minus-2.5 if Revis had been playing. And one point -- when it crosses a key number, such as this did by going over three -- is worth at least two points any other time."
So, here are the Millman Rankings™ for defenders with the highest PSVAR, with Revis topping the list at No. 2 with 2.5 points. All other players are worth one.
1. Darrelle Revis
2. Julius Peppers
3. Jared Allen
4. Haloti Ngata
Some people will dispute these ideas. That is what lists are for. I welcome your comments and feedback as we look to perfect and refine the Millman Rankings™. And I'm going to track this throughout the season. Because one day, with our help as well as recognition from the league that its popularity is somewhat due to gambling, the PSVAR will get its own column on the injury report, right next to some silly thing they call STATUS.
Week 4 Line moves
For the heck of it, I asked Fuhrman to run down five games in which he had seen some wiseguy action. Here is his rundown:
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
Line moves: Opened Cards minus-6.5, now Cards minus-5.5
Fuhrman says: "The sharp money came in on Miami. The perspective is really that Arizona has been playing as the underdog and you play with a different mentality when no one believes in you, instead of being the team everyone thinks is going to win. Hunter vs. Hunted. You don't surprise anyone anymore when the tables have turned like this. And when you are undefeated, you are always going to see someone's best effort."
[Editor's note: Interesting how little Reggie Bush and his injury are affecting this line. Clearly his PSVAR does not rate very high according to wiseguys.]
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Line moves: Opened Patriots minus-6, now Pats minus-4
Fuhrman says: "New England was bet down to four and that is more around the strength of this Bills team being its offensive line. You saw Tashard Choice rattle off 90 yards, so no one is worried about this team's game-breaking ability. The Pats are a little overvalued by bookmakers right now, and this is a divisional game in which the Bills can hang with them. The public is going to come in on the Pats at an 80 percent clip, so this will tick back up on Sunday."
[Editor's note: Interesting how little C.J. Spiller and his injury are impacting this line. Clearly his PSVAR does not rate very high according to wiseguys.]
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Line moves: Opened at Falcons minus-7.5, now Falcons minus-7
Fuhrman says: "Some of these sides are a little overvalued, and Atlanta is one of them. They had that great game against Denver, then a big win on the road in San Diego. But this is a divisional game in which Carolina had 10 days to prepare, for a team they match up pretty well with."
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Line moves: Opened at Packers minus-7.5, now Packers minus-7.5
Fuhrman says: "I know I will be on an island, but I think New Orleans catching plus-7.5 is a rich number. I actually think if the Packers win on Monday night, this game is a little shorter because people are assuming Green Bay is going to come out and play with its hair on fire. I think 6.5 is the right number on this. By using a 7.5, the book has flexibility because they can go has high as 9.5 if the public comes in on Green Bay because there is really no difference between those two numbers. Those are dead numbers."
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Line moves: Opened at Eagles minus-2, now Eagles minus-1
Fuhrman says: "I think the Eagles are in a good spot on Sunday night. Everyone saw how awful they looked and how great the Giants looked. If this game was played two weeks ago, the Eagles would have been much bigger favorites. This is all perception."
</offer>
