Exbookie wants to help the players week 5

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EX BOOKIE
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Investment plays 2-3 -$2450.00
Action plays 9-10 -$1232.00
Total 11-13 -$3682.00
411 system now 3-1 75%


Don’tkeep your eye on the Ball:
Evaluating bets for next week should not begin next week; there is plenty of information to gain by watching this week’s games. Pay attention to the peripheral action during a game, not only to theball-handler.
One excellent tip-off is in the initial clash of the offensive and defensive lines. Note which way the surge seems to move;whether the offensive or defensive line seems to give ground on a regular basis. A strong line is the foundationof a good offense or defense. If a lineconsistently moves forward, that’s good; if they consistently lose ground,that’s bad. A weak line can ruin the best of game plans. Try to get a feelfor which line seems to be dominating the other….And keep in mind there are four lines to watch, not two.
While studying line clashes, don’t try to force an opinion. Very often, neither line will consistently dominate the other. That’s news initself. That’s why it’s a good idea towatch plenty of snaps, and to watch snaps in all four quarters of the game. Evaluating line surges can betricky. If the game is an early blowout,the line surges aren’t going to tell you much. If the outcome has been decided early in the game, line clashes probably aren’t a true example of either team’s ability.
Closegames give better clues to a line’s ability. In a close game, the line that dominates in the fourth quarter isprobably superior.
By not watching the ball handler you can get insights into a team’s morale. Therecan be a big difference, for example, between teams whose players help one another to their feet after a play, compared with teams whose players don’tinteract on the field. Do players return to the huddle in pairs, or do they straggle back alone without talking to each other? It’s also a good idea to pick outa non-ball-handling player and watch that particular player for severalplays. It is significant if teammatesare involved in a lot of butt-patting, high-fiving, helmet-banging, etc. These are signs of good team spirit. They indicate the presence of enthusiasm,camaraderie, and a deep-rooted desire to win.
It’salso a sign of high morale if a player suddenly claps his hands for no apparentreason, or suddenly jogs in place, or if everyone hurries to get back in placeafter a play. It’s a sign of poor moraleif players lumber slowly back to the huddle, or if they appear more tired thantheir opponents.
It’s abad idea to bet on a team next week if you sense an absence of communication between teammates this week, or if players don’t exchange small talk, or if noone congratulates a guy after a good play, or if they return to the huddle without pairing up. These are signs ofmorale problems, or a bunch of guys not pulling the same wagon.
Eventhe sidelines can give clues to a team’s chances. On a motivated team the coach is surroundedby players and assistants waiting for orders. On a team with problems the coach stands alone, everyone staysaway. On healthy teams, players on thesidelines will be riveted to the action on the field; they stand, rather thansit, often yelling to players and officials on the field. They seem involved. On teams with problems, they tend to sit,rather than stand. Players keep tothemselves, often staring glumly into their Gator-Ade.
You’recalled upon here to use your instinct. We’ve all seen the same pictures on television: A guy scores and a dozen teammates bury himin a pile of hugs; another guy on another team scores and no more than two orthree teammates bother to congratulate him. It’s up to you to exercise the psychologist within you; to use yourability to read people. These arespoiled, out-going, rich young men; they are not the most difficult kind ofpeople to read.


STATS VS ATS

HOME 29
AWAY 34

DOGS 38
FAV 25

OVER 31
UNDER 34

POINTS THAT MATTER 10 GAMES OUT OF 63 GAMES THAT'S 16%



MORE TO COME

ACE
 

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Ace why only give % for one system and not the 40% for investment plays and 47% for action plays? Aren't investment plays the plays you tell all to play? Good luck this week, week 5 no excuses now!
 

seer
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is the top nfl public bets for week 5 above or for the whole year?

also could u please print week 6 lines thank you ! if u have every week lines would like them all if u can! again thanks!
 

EX BOOKIE
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Ace why only give % for one system and not the 40% for investment plays and 47% for action plays? Aren't investment plays the plays you tell all to play? Good luck this week, week 5 no excuses now!

lost week 1
win week 2
lost week 3
won week 4
season has a long ways to go:103631605
 

EX BOOKIE
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is the top nfl public bets for week 5 above or for the whole year?

also could u please print week 6 lines thank you ! if u have every week lines would like them all if u can! again thanks!

top public picks for week 5!
 

EX BOOKIE
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week 6 lines for those that want a head start...

PITT -4

ATL -9

CIN -2.5

MIA -3.5

NYJ -4

PHI -6

BAL -4.5

TB -3.5

TB -3.5

NE -4

AZ-4

SF -5.5

WAS -2

TEX -3.5

SD -2.5
 

EX BOOKIE
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Tonight...

Sea under 39.5...................$700.00

One of 6 plays this week

Best to all

Ace
 

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:ohno: Seattle?
 

EX BOOKIE
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Market Report: What Sharps Think in Week Five NFL


After winning Thursday night with their strong opinion on St. Louis as a home underdog vs. Arizona (driving an opening line of +3 down to +1.5 or +1 in a game that would yield a 17-3 outright victory), sharps are now hoping for similar success with their early action in games for Sunday and Monday. Let’s run through what sharps are thinking about this weekend’s action in rotation order.
Note that Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all have byes, so there are only 13 games on the NFL card Sunday and Monday…

ATLANTA AT WASHINGTON: The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 52 dropped down to 51. The team side line of Atlanta -3 has stood solid. We would expect sharps to fade any public move off that critical number. But, is the kind of game that could divide the public too. Most sharps we’ve talked to would prefer the home dog on principal…but think the number is basically right on the money barring any sort of surprise injury news over the weekend. Sharps are impressed with both Atlanta as a playoff threat…and Washington as a dog with upset potential. That all cancels out at this line.

PHILADELPHIA AT PITTSBURGH: Initial interest on the underdog here as Philadelphia +4 was bet down to +3.5 Interesting that there wasn’t enough passion to bring the line down to the key number of three. Remember, many sharps had given Philly their best NFC Power Ratings when the season was about to begin. The team now isn’t even the top-rated side in Pennsylvania with this line being over the standard home field advantage. Sharps did like the Under though, as an opener of 44.5 is down to 43.

GREEN BAY AT INDIANAPOLIS: The line opened Green Bay by 6.5…which is typically a sign that oddsmakers believe the “sharp” side is going to be the dog, and they’re inviting the public to bet the line higher. Instead, sharps stepped in and took the line to seven. From what we hear, some of that is position-taking from sharps hoping to buy back on the dog later at a better price. But, there is a feeling from some that Green Bay is the much better team given Indy’s overall youth. And, there’s also developing a contingent of sharps who are betting the NFC over the AFC because of strength shown thus far in the season (consistent with Philly money vs. Pittsburgh in the game above). The total hasn’t drawn much interest yet. And, this is an indoor game so weather isn’t going to drive late action.

CLEVELAND AT NY GIANTS: Serious interest on the Browns here. That flies in the face of the NFC/AFC theory…but is consistent with the general view that the Giants can never be trusted as big home favorites! You’ll recall they almost lost outright to Tampa Bay on this field a few weeks ago as favorites of more than a TD. Here the line opened at -10.5, but has been bet down by sharps to -9 or -8.5. Also, there are some sharps who like betting rested teams at value prices. Cleveland hasn’t played since last Thursday. A lot of good “intangible” reasons to take the dog at a double digit price. Stragglers will have to decide if all the value has been bet out now. No interest yet in the total. From this point on in this article, if we don’t mention the total in a game…it’s because sharps haven’t shown much interest on that prop in that particular game.
TENNESSEE AT MINNESOTA: Tennessee earned support at the opener of +6.5 largely because sharps don’t trust the Vikings as favorites. Yes, they’ve taken out San Francisco and Detroit. But, the game stats haven’t matched the results. Tennessee is now just +5.5. We’ve seen a big move on the Under from a total of 45.5 down to 44 or even 43.5. This is obviously an indoor game, so that’s based on team matchups rather than weather possibilities. We’ve talked to a few sharps who don’t have respect for either of these offenses.

MIAMI AT CINCINNATI: Miami has sure impressed some sharps in recent weeks, as this opening line of Cincinnati -5.5 was bet all the way down to -3. Normally you only see a move that big when a starting QB is announced as “out.” But, Andy Dalton is fine. Sharps like what they’ve seen from Miami in terms of “keeping it close” potential against the likes of the NY Jets and Arizona the past two week. The total has gone up a point from 44 to 45, which suggests good football weather for Sunday in Cincy.

BALITMORE AT KANSAS CITY: Like Green Bay/Kansas City, the opener saw the road team laying -6.5. But, unlike that game, sharps didn’t drive the favorite up. They stepped in tentatively on the home underdog to bring the number down to +6. We’re hearing some of that is from old school guys who love home dogs in this stadium. Baltimore had extra time to prepare, and Kansas City’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be…so some sharps may step in on the Ravens if the line drops any further.

SEATTLE AT CAROLINA: Not much betting interest on this game either way. The home team is favored by three…and each team has a quarterback who sharps are questioning right now in terms of having “the right stuff.” Enthusiasm is fading from Wilson of Seattle after his struggles this year. And, Cam Newton’s engines have cooled off dramatically since September of 2011. Sharps will fade any public move Sunday…but these aren’t high profile teams in terms of public betting.

CHICAGO AT JACKSONVILLE: Jacksonville joins the list of home dogs bettors are considering this week. Sharps liked them at the opener of +5.5. We’re now seeing +4.5 in many stores. We’re hearing some of that is because Chicago is a road favorite playing in a short week after a road Monday Night game. More anti-Chicago than pro-Jacksonville in terms of that line move.

DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND: This will be a heavily bet game in Vegas sportsbooks because Peyton Manning is facing Tom Brady in the showcase matchup of the afternoon. We haven’t seen much sharp interest yet though. New England opened at -6.5 and stayed there. That suggests at least that sharps DON’T like New England. Obviously the line would have moved to at least -7 if sharps wanted Brady. So we likely have the sharps preferring the dog, but hoping they get +7 on game day after the public steps in. The total is up from 51.5 to 52 or 52.5, suggesting decent game day weather for these two noted passers. Game day may bring a tug-of-war that ultimately has squares on New England -6.5, and sharps on Denver +7.

BUFFALO AT SAN FRANCISCO: The old school guys who like to take all double digit dogs have moved in on Buffalo at +10. We’re now seeing +9.5 in most places. It’s telling though that the move was only a half a point. This wasn’t bandwagon support for the road dog…just line value support from a certain type of sharp. The total is up a half a point from 44 to 44.5, keyed we’ve heard by the style of game Buffalo has been playing this year. They’ve had some very high scoring afternoons thanks to a shaky defense and a turnover prone offense.

SAN DIEGO AT NEW ORLEANS: This opened at -3. Sharps hit the favorite hard enough to move off the key number to -3.5 and even -4 in some places. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of interest to move off a three. Sharps have spoken. Squares won’t get to back a popular home favorite at that critical number on game night. Act quickly if you like a favorite!

HOUSTON AT NY JETS: Sharps have shown a lot of respect for Houston (particularly when healthy) this year and last…and they’ve shown a lot of disdain for the Jets. So, it was no surprise at all when this line opened at Houston -7 and got bet up to -8. The opener may have struck some of you as high. But, oddsmakers do have the Texans at least 10 better than the Jets on a neutral field right now…and sharps had it more like 11 better based on their quick investments. Oh, we’re hearing that many sharps will be even MORE anti-Jets in future weeks if Tim Tebow is moved up to starting quarterback.
 

EX BOOKIE
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let's take a game and look at it....

This is something you don’t see very often…a team that’s winless through four games laying more than a field goal to a team that’s off to a winning start and positioned well in the playoff race. What’s going on? How could a winless team be getting that much respect from the markets?
A few things are in play here:
*New Orleans and Drew Brees typically get respect in the line, particularly when playing indoors on their fast track at home.
*New Orleans didn’t embarrass themselves in a tight loss at Green Bay last week. They’re seen as a team that’s about to break through and get that initial victory of the season.
*Brees is in position to set a statistical record this year that’s been getting some media run. People love betting on guys who are striving for statistical achievements.
*Nobody trusts Norv Turner!
All that being said, there are still reason to question this number based on what’s happened so far in the 2012 season. Let’s go through some of our indicator stats to see if we can discover the right way to play Sunday Night’s nationally televised interconference affair.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8:20 p.m. on NBC)
Las Vegas Spread: New Orleans by 3.5, total of 52.5
The market is saying New Orleans is the better team, regardless of what the won-lost records suggest. Home field advantage is worth three points in the NFL. If a line sticks above that, then the favorite is the superior side. It’s important to note that the opener was right on the key number of three, and Wise Guys hit the Saints before the public even become involved. Obviously a high scoring shootout is expected with an Over/Under in the 50’s.

WON-LOST RECORDS
San Diego: 3-1 (at Oakland, vs. Tennessee, vs. Atlanta, at Kansas City)
New Orleans: 0-4 (vs. Washington, at Carolina, vs. Kansas City, at Green Bay)
Let’s pay attention to the schedules here. San Diego has had it easy…with wins over two teams who may turn out to be horrible this year (Oakland and Tennessee), and another that certainly has horrible in them in any given week (Kansas City). The only game SD played against a real playoff type team was at home against Atlanta, and they were badly outclassed. It’s worth noting though that New Orleans is 0-4 against a schedule that may only have one playoff caliber opponent on it. And, they were humiliated at the point of attack at home by the Kansas City team that San Diego beat last week. It’s been a truly BAD start to the season for the Saints…not some sort of “best 0-4 team ever” start featuring a lot of hard-luck losses to top notch contenders. They had one of those last week, but only one. This version of the Saints has played like a 6-10 or 7-9 type team.

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL
San Diego: +3
New Orleans: even
The Chargers can have troubles in this area when they play good teams. Quarterback Philip Rivers tends to force things at the worst possible time. A soft early schedule has helped them avoid this concern. New Orleans is dead even…which is actually a bad sign with an 0-4 start. It means the won-lost record isn’t polluted by bad turnover luck. Another sign that New Orleans really has dropped off this year. The Saints are 0-4 against a manageable schedule while not suffering bad turnover luck.

OFFENSIVE STATS
San Diego: 311.8 yards-per-game on 5.1 yards-per-play
New Orleans: 401.1 yards-per-game on 5.8 yards-per-play
This is where the Saints are still the Saints. Brees is moving the ball and getting points on the board. He’s terrific, and nothing about that’s changed. The Saints aren’t losing because Drew Brees got old, or because the league figured out how to stop him. What interests us about this category is how bad San Diego looks. This is supposed to be an explosive offense. Yet, we’re seeing low 300’s and only 5.1 YPP in a year where passing attacks have been able to get things done. AND, that’s come against a weak schedule. This is a red flag warning in terms of San Diego’s future as a playoff contender. They don’t currently have a playoff caliber offense, which is big news considering the Turner/Rivers era. If you’re laying the points with the Saints, this is the category you’re pointing to as the main reason.

DEFENSIVE STATS
San Diego: 317.5 yards-per-game on 5.2 yards-per-play
New Orleans: 463.2 yards-per-game on 6.4 yards-per-play
Ugh…do you fans of offense still like the Saints as a value play? Those are HORRIBLE numbers against a schedule that’s included a rookie quarterback, a second-year quarterback, and the inconsistent offense of the Chiefs. The franchise was obviously greatly affected by what happened in the offseason. They’re playing as if they went on strike! This is what we mean about New Orleans playing 6-10 caliber football. Heck, that’s expansion caliber defense.
 

EX BOOKIE
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In the hilton
players have picked

NO 205
SD 87

This capper is on the side line and going to watch. WOW...0-4 team fav by 3.5 over a team that is in 1st place!!!!!....all the years of capping I live to see this :think2:
 

EX BOOKIE
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Pretty sure that game was between Arizon and St Loiuis. Not Seattle.

wow...did I do that:ohno:

Stl under 39.5...................$700.00 winner...

it would have been easy to fig/out/only game of the night.

thanks for the help
 

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Ace how are you doing in the hilton contest this,and good luck hope you win it.
 

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