2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 0-0, --
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5 (Was down for most of the 2011 playoffs, before going 5-1-1 in the World Series. As I’ve said throughout the year, playoff o/u’s are tougher)
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47,-$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Here we are once again, boys… the postseason. As I stressed many times throughout the year, there are no guarantees when it comes to playoff games. That’s what makes it most fascinating: EVERY INDIVIDUAL PITCHING MATCHUP in the postseason is its own unique standalone variable that must be studied very carefully in order for you to have any type of consistent success. Regular season games are much easier compared to the playoff variety because most of those games are mundane and basic, with steady variables that are easy to measure. October and November games? You just never know because the pressure of a playoff game is far, far above that of your typical regular season game, and thus, there’s more of a chance things can awry. Furthermore, you have starting pitchers, not to mention hitters, that are entering uninhabited territory, and even when a professional athlete is entering something they’ve never been apart of, or even have little experience in with such a high-pressure situation, well, what do you think is going to happen? These athletes are regular people just like us, and I can’t stress it enough. Mentality is EVERYTHING. That all being known, playoff betting is not for everyone. Even those of us, such as myself, who study this game more than anybody else on a daily basis, and write hundreds or thousands of words a day on it with the most extreme knowledge… I’m telling you, it’s difficult no matter who you are. These are the games where moments are made for history because anything can happen. Are you ready? I am…
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves (Best Bet) - $72 for $60
Kyle Lohse vs Kris Medlen
UNDER 7
Irony of all irony. The 2012 MajorLeague Baseball season began with Kyle Lohse making a start for the St. Louis Cardinals, and that’s just how the 2012 postseason will begin as well. Except this time, he isn’t squaring off against Josh Johnson on Opening Night to open up a new ballpark (Which I lost the over, by the way); this time he’s opening up a new baseball tradition, that being the inaugural “Play-In” Wild Card games, which is just such a unique and incredible variable that we may not see something like it for decades. Think about it: In America, there’s nothing more storied than the sport of baseball. I’m like any other normal male - I love every sport, including football. But baseball has always been my No. 1, and I still like to believe that it’s No. 1 in the country as well despite the unstoppable continued emergence of the NFL. That said, it has to be viewed as a HUGE deal that baseball is starting this new Wild Card endeavor, and that’s something that could potentially be weighing heavy on the minds of both starting pitchers today (Not to mention in the night game).
With Kyle Lohse, though, I think he’s proven to be rock-solid from a mental standpoint, though, which means we’ll more-so be able to see more of his normal effort, the one that led him to finishing 16-3 with a dazzling 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, and the one that could easily contribute to an under 7 in a pitcher’s ballpark like Atlanta. Yes, his start against the Braves back in May wasn’t too good (5 IP, 5 ER, 9 H), but if you’ve been following the progress of their offense throughout the year, you’d notice quite easily how their offense has dropped off in the second half, most notably Michael Bourn, who hit in the .220’s since the all-star break. Bourn is so dynamic that when he’s not producing, their whole offense gets kind of into a funk, and that will play into the advantage of a pitcher like Lohse, who is tough to pile up hits off of. Listen, I am 100-percent honest with everything I say on here, and I’ll be the first to admit that throughout last season, when Lohse had his initial huge break-out campaign, I continually doubted him. It wasn’t until about halfway through this season where I finally accepted Lohse as a legitimate upper echelon pitcher because he has come a long way since his large display of mediocrity while in Minnesota. Of course, he ectually struggled in three playoff starts last year (7.82 ERA) with the Cardinals en route to their memorable championship, but I feel like one year later, Lohse has more of a different mindset, which is crucial for him to succeed in a situation like this. He’s a battle-tested veteran at this point in his career, as opposed to last year when he was new to success and didn’t have as much experience sustaining it and handling it in these big starts, and with another year under his belt, that should lead to a more steady mentality from the St. Louis right-hander. The more steady you are, the more normal you can be.
However, I think it will be more of an effort from the superstar-on-the-rise Kris Medlen that seals this under. There are just so many things to like about this guy entering a start in a situation such as this that it’s just tremendous to have him on your side at this point in time. First off, there is the well-known stat that Atlanta has won 22 or 23 straight games that he has pitched in, and while that has nothing to do with the over/under, that incredible statistic might serve as a sense of comfort for the young right-hander. Secondly, when you know a starting pitcher is entering an assignment with a real sense of comfort, you just have to believe he follows up with his usual-type performance, and everyone should be familiar with Medlen’s 2012 resume. He made 12 starts, 11 of which seeing him allow two runs or less, which is just mind-boggling. The one where he didn’t? He was “bombed” for three runs over seven innings, which of course qualifies as a quality start, which we’ll gladly take in this instance. I addressed the impact that this inaugural “Play-In” game can have on one’s mindset, and I’ll do the same with Medlen here: He should be rock-solid, just like with his counterpart this evening. Think about it: For someone to go on a lengthy dominant run the extent that Medlen has showcased, you have to have a strong mindset for it because the longer it goes, the more people are going to talk about it, and thus, the more you will personally think about it, and then there’s that possibility it throws you off with having too much confidence or weighing it too much in your head. Well, with a 0.97 ERA in his 12 starts thisyear, it’s apparent that the pressure NEVER got to Medlen, which is how he wasable to sustain such a dominant run in the first place. As a result, he pretty much passed his toughest test in flying colors, that being the one in which proves he can be a consistent elite pitcher for a long time. This newest test should fall in line with the one he was going through as the season was winding down, which challenged him to see how successful he could be. Medlen never flinched, and because of all of that, I confidently believe he’ll be mentally ready for this biggest start of his career. At the end of the day, Kris Medlen is not some “hype pitcher.” He’s the real deal who will have a nice, successful career in the years to come, even if this start doesn't pan out as well as we hope for. I think his performance tonight, though, will further solidify the true potential this guy really has.
Note: I am also taking the Joe Saunders vs Yu Darvish over/under as well. A write-up for that will be posted shortly (Although being that the Texas Rangers are my favorite team, I’m concerned enough as it is with them hopefully pulling out a victory)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5 (Was down for most of the 2011 playoffs, before going 5-1-1 in the World Series. As I’ve said throughout the year, playoff o/u’s are tougher)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47,-$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Here we are once again, boys… the postseason. As I stressed many times throughout the year, there are no guarantees when it comes to playoff games. That’s what makes it most fascinating: EVERY INDIVIDUAL PITCHING MATCHUP in the postseason is its own unique standalone variable that must be studied very carefully in order for you to have any type of consistent success. Regular season games are much easier compared to the playoff variety because most of those games are mundane and basic, with steady variables that are easy to measure. October and November games? You just never know because the pressure of a playoff game is far, far above that of your typical regular season game, and thus, there’s more of a chance things can awry. Furthermore, you have starting pitchers, not to mention hitters, that are entering uninhabited territory, and even when a professional athlete is entering something they’ve never been apart of, or even have little experience in with such a high-pressure situation, well, what do you think is going to happen? These athletes are regular people just like us, and I can’t stress it enough. Mentality is EVERYTHING. That all being known, playoff betting is not for everyone. Even those of us, such as myself, who study this game more than anybody else on a daily basis, and write hundreds or thousands of words a day on it with the most extreme knowledge… I’m telling you, it’s difficult no matter who you are. These are the games where moments are made for history because anything can happen. Are you ready? I am…
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves (Best Bet) - $72 for $60
Kyle Lohse vs Kris Medlen
UNDER 7
Irony of all irony. The 2012 MajorLeague Baseball season began with Kyle Lohse making a start for the St. Louis Cardinals, and that’s just how the 2012 postseason will begin as well. Except this time, he isn’t squaring off against Josh Johnson on Opening Night to open up a new ballpark (Which I lost the over, by the way); this time he’s opening up a new baseball tradition, that being the inaugural “Play-In” Wild Card games, which is just such a unique and incredible variable that we may not see something like it for decades. Think about it: In America, there’s nothing more storied than the sport of baseball. I’m like any other normal male - I love every sport, including football. But baseball has always been my No. 1, and I still like to believe that it’s No. 1 in the country as well despite the unstoppable continued emergence of the NFL. That said, it has to be viewed as a HUGE deal that baseball is starting this new Wild Card endeavor, and that’s something that could potentially be weighing heavy on the minds of both starting pitchers today (Not to mention in the night game).
With Kyle Lohse, though, I think he’s proven to be rock-solid from a mental standpoint, though, which means we’ll more-so be able to see more of his normal effort, the one that led him to finishing 16-3 with a dazzling 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, and the one that could easily contribute to an under 7 in a pitcher’s ballpark like Atlanta. Yes, his start against the Braves back in May wasn’t too good (5 IP, 5 ER, 9 H), but if you’ve been following the progress of their offense throughout the year, you’d notice quite easily how their offense has dropped off in the second half, most notably Michael Bourn, who hit in the .220’s since the all-star break. Bourn is so dynamic that when he’s not producing, their whole offense gets kind of into a funk, and that will play into the advantage of a pitcher like Lohse, who is tough to pile up hits off of. Listen, I am 100-percent honest with everything I say on here, and I’ll be the first to admit that throughout last season, when Lohse had his initial huge break-out campaign, I continually doubted him. It wasn’t until about halfway through this season where I finally accepted Lohse as a legitimate upper echelon pitcher because he has come a long way since his large display of mediocrity while in Minnesota. Of course, he ectually struggled in three playoff starts last year (7.82 ERA) with the Cardinals en route to their memorable championship, but I feel like one year later, Lohse has more of a different mindset, which is crucial for him to succeed in a situation like this. He’s a battle-tested veteran at this point in his career, as opposed to last year when he was new to success and didn’t have as much experience sustaining it and handling it in these big starts, and with another year under his belt, that should lead to a more steady mentality from the St. Louis right-hander. The more steady you are, the more normal you can be.
However, I think it will be more of an effort from the superstar-on-the-rise Kris Medlen that seals this under. There are just so many things to like about this guy entering a start in a situation such as this that it’s just tremendous to have him on your side at this point in time. First off, there is the well-known stat that Atlanta has won 22 or 23 straight games that he has pitched in, and while that has nothing to do with the over/under, that incredible statistic might serve as a sense of comfort for the young right-hander. Secondly, when you know a starting pitcher is entering an assignment with a real sense of comfort, you just have to believe he follows up with his usual-type performance, and everyone should be familiar with Medlen’s 2012 resume. He made 12 starts, 11 of which seeing him allow two runs or less, which is just mind-boggling. The one where he didn’t? He was “bombed” for three runs over seven innings, which of course qualifies as a quality start, which we’ll gladly take in this instance. I addressed the impact that this inaugural “Play-In” game can have on one’s mindset, and I’ll do the same with Medlen here: He should be rock-solid, just like with his counterpart this evening. Think about it: For someone to go on a lengthy dominant run the extent that Medlen has showcased, you have to have a strong mindset for it because the longer it goes, the more people are going to talk about it, and thus, the more you will personally think about it, and then there’s that possibility it throws you off with having too much confidence or weighing it too much in your head. Well, with a 0.97 ERA in his 12 starts thisyear, it’s apparent that the pressure NEVER got to Medlen, which is how he wasable to sustain such a dominant run in the first place. As a result, he pretty much passed his toughest test in flying colors, that being the one in which proves he can be a consistent elite pitcher for a long time. This newest test should fall in line with the one he was going through as the season was winding down, which challenged him to see how successful he could be. Medlen never flinched, and because of all of that, I confidently believe he’ll be mentally ready for this biggest start of his career. At the end of the day, Kris Medlen is not some “hype pitcher.” He’s the real deal who will have a nice, successful career in the years to come, even if this start doesn't pan out as well as we hope for. I think his performance tonight, though, will further solidify the true potential this guy really has.
Note: I am also taking the Joe Saunders vs Yu Darvish over/under as well. A write-up for that will be posted shortly (Although being that the Texas Rangers are my favorite team, I’m concerned enough as it is with them hopefully pulling out a victory)
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
