I had a decent performance last week in my bold predictions. While California and Western Michigan disappointed me, Duke beat Wake Forest on the road to improve my toss-up game record to 4-1, and the struggling Ohio State defense proved me right by holding Michigan State to only 34 rushing yards in the Buckeyes' 17-16 win.
Here are my bold predictions for Week 6:
1. West Virginia's over-hyped offense and poor defense will be no match for Texas
It amazes me how many analysts are basically handing the Heisman Trophy to West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith and proclaiming the team as a legitimate national championship contender after it has played four games against mediocre competition. There is no question that Smith and the Mountaineers' offense have put up gaudy numbers to date, but the team's huge struggles on defense and the lack of a consistent run game will doom them this week on the road against the Texas Longhorns.
Phil Steele
Get access to Phil Steele's football analysis all year long at PhilSteele.com. You can check out his previous articles for ESPN Insider below:
• Week 5 bold predictions
• Overrated, underrated teams
• Week 4 bold predictions
• Week 3 bold predictions
• Week 2 bold predictions
• Week 1 bold predictions
First, while everyone talks about how impressive last week's 70-63 win was for West Virginia, keep in mind that the Mountaineers were favored to win the game by nearly two touchdowns and were playing at home with all kinds of advantages against a mediocre Baylor team. If you flipped the script and said that Texas gave up 63 points to Baylor at home, everyone in the country would be throwing the Longhorns in the trash can while also questioning whether Mack Brown is on the hot seat.
If you look more closely at West Virginia's first four performances, you'll find that the results have been shockingly underwhelming. The Mountaineers gave up 545 yards to Marshall in the opener, then 351 yards to a Maryland team that managed only 236 yards of offense against William & Mary in Week 1. Baylor came into last week's game averaging 569 yards per game but racked up an incredible 698 yards against WVU, which was the Bears' best total of the season. That's saying a lot when you consider that Baylor has played SMU, Sam Houston State and Louisiana-Monroe this season.
On offense, West Virginia is averaging 599 yards per game, but that output came against the likes of an FCS opponent and the current No. 119 and No. 124 defenses in the country. The one adequate defense the Mountaineers faced was Maryland's, and they managed only 363 yards and 31 points (which included a defensive touchdown) against the Terps. And I think we can all agree that the talent level of Texas' defense is far greater than that of Maryland's D.
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West Virginia's offense reminds me a lot of Baylor's offense with Robert Griffin III last season, with one major exception in that the Mountaineers do not have a running back like the Bears' Terrance Ganaway last season, who can take some pressure off the quarterback and receivers. And even with a great running back in Ganaway, Baylor still suffered blowout losses last season to the tune of 55-28 at Texas A&M and 59-24 at Oklahoma State. I think the same could happen to the Mountaineers this year.
Texas, meanwhile, has been very impressive to date and just last week went into a hostile environment at Oklahoma State and pulled out a tough win against a team that I think will finish with at least nine wins. Two weeks prior, the Longhorns traveled to Ole Miss and outgained the Rebels by 277 yards -- the same Ole Miss team that played No. 1 Alabama on the road last week and was outgained by only 89 yards.
The Longhorns will be able to chew clock with their outstanding running backs Johnathan Gray and Joe Bergeron, and quarterback David Ash, who has played brilliantly to date with a 10-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, will pick apart a West Virginia secondary that is allowing 353 passing yards per game.
Playing from behind will force Smith to make his first big mistake or two in the passing game, while playing in the most hostile environment the Mountaineers have been exposed to since the LSU game two seasons ago. I will boldly predict that the Longhorns will come away with a two-touchdown-plus win Saturday night.
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Jim Brown/US PresswireJeff Driskel gives Florida an edge at the QB position over LSU.
2. Florida will beat LSU in this week's toss-up game
It seems as though I feature the Florida Gators every week in my bold predictions, but they have deserved the praise to date, sitting at 4-0 with impressive road wins at Texas A&M and at Tennessee. The same cannot be said for the Tigers, who limp in off of back-to-back uninspiring performances against the likes of a 1-3 Auburn team and Towson.
I give the offensive edge to the Gators, particularly at the quarterback spot with Jeff Driskel being able to beat you with his arm and legs, while Zach Mettenberger has struggled.
I give the slight defensive edge to LSU, as the Tigers are allowing only 218 yards per game compared with Florida's 305 yards per game, but keep in mind, LSU has played the No. 113 (Auburn), No. 110 (Idaho) and No. 107 (Washington) offenses, while Florida has faced the No. 12 (Texas A&M) and No. 18 (Tennessee) offenses.
A slight special-teams edge goes to Florida, because while both teams have great kickers and punters, Gators kicker Caleb Sturgis has hit 7 of 12 field goals from 50-plus yards in his career, while Drew Alleman is just 0-for-2 in that category. In a low-scoring game where field position and points will come at a premium, that's a significant advantage.
Finally, the intangibles edge also goes to the Gators, as they come in off a bye, are much healthier and are playing with double revenge on their minds, coming off of two straight losses to the Tigers. I've got the Gators coming up with a win and improving to 5-0, while boosting my toss-up game record to 5-1.
3. Georgia will upset South Carolina on the road
Last year's game between the Georgia Bulldogs and South Carolina Gamecocks was a nightmare for UGA fans, as the Dawgs lost at home 45-42. South Carolina scored three non-offensive touchdowns and scored a fourth on a 3-yard "drive" that followed a long interception return. After the game, South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier even admitted that his team was outplayed, even though they came up with the win.
This year both teams come in unbeaten, but they have achieved those records in different ways. Georgia, for the first time in school history, has started the season with five straight games scoring 40 or more points, while South Carolina is allowing just 11 points per game. UGA has struggled on defense to a certain extent, but keep in mind that last week was the first time all season that the Bulldogs were playing with all of their expected starters, and after jumping out to an early 27-10 lead, they may have let up on the gas pedal a bit.
While South Carolina has had to manage with a less-than-100-percent Connor Shaw this year, Marcus Lattimore has yet to look like the player he was prior to last year's knee injury. The Bulldogs have gone 39-10 on the road under Mark Richt, and he will pick up road win No. 40 this week.
4. Oklahoma will put up 400 yards against the nation's No. 1-rated defense
The entire country seems to be dismissing the Oklahoma Sooners after their loss to Kansas State two weeks ago. It's important to remember that three very costly turnovers were what did in the Sooners, including one fumble that was recovered by Kansas State for a touchdown and another fumble that the Sooners lost in the end zone as they were going in to score a touchdown themselves. At that point, Oklahoma had a nine-to-three first-down edge and could have led 10-0, but instead trailed 7-3.
Last week I wrote that the Texas Tech defense, while much improved from last year's team, is one of the more overrated units in the country. After playing the likes of Northwestern State, Texas State, New Mexico and Iowa State, that defense will be in for a rude awakening this week. My computer calls for the Sooners to roll up 400 yards on offense, which is more than double what the Red Raiders have been giving up this season (average of 168 yards per game allowed).
Texas Tech has beaten Oklahoma four straight times in odd-numbered seasons (2005, '07, '09 and '11) and Oklahoma has returned the favor the following year each of the first three times. The Sooners will make it four-for-four here.
Phil Steele has published his annual college football preview magazine for the past 18 years. You can follow his work at PhilSteele.com.
Here are my bold predictions for Week 6:
1. West Virginia's over-hyped offense and poor defense will be no match for Texas
It amazes me how many analysts are basically handing the Heisman Trophy to West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith and proclaiming the team as a legitimate national championship contender after it has played four games against mediocre competition. There is no question that Smith and the Mountaineers' offense have put up gaudy numbers to date, but the team's huge struggles on defense and the lack of a consistent run game will doom them this week on the road against the Texas Longhorns.
Phil Steele
Get access to Phil Steele's football analysis all year long at PhilSteele.com. You can check out his previous articles for ESPN Insider below:
• Week 5 bold predictions
• Overrated, underrated teams
• Week 4 bold predictions
• Week 3 bold predictions
• Week 2 bold predictions
• Week 1 bold predictions
First, while everyone talks about how impressive last week's 70-63 win was for West Virginia, keep in mind that the Mountaineers were favored to win the game by nearly two touchdowns and were playing at home with all kinds of advantages against a mediocre Baylor team. If you flipped the script and said that Texas gave up 63 points to Baylor at home, everyone in the country would be throwing the Longhorns in the trash can while also questioning whether Mack Brown is on the hot seat.
If you look more closely at West Virginia's first four performances, you'll find that the results have been shockingly underwhelming. The Mountaineers gave up 545 yards to Marshall in the opener, then 351 yards to a Maryland team that managed only 236 yards of offense against William & Mary in Week 1. Baylor came into last week's game averaging 569 yards per game but racked up an incredible 698 yards against WVU, which was the Bears' best total of the season. That's saying a lot when you consider that Baylor has played SMU, Sam Houston State and Louisiana-Monroe this season.
On offense, West Virginia is averaging 599 yards per game, but that output came against the likes of an FCS opponent and the current No. 119 and No. 124 defenses in the country. The one adequate defense the Mountaineers faced was Maryland's, and they managed only 363 yards and 31 points (which included a defensive touchdown) against the Terps. And I think we can all agree that the talent level of Texas' defense is far greater than that of Maryland's D.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
West Virginia's offense reminds me a lot of Baylor's offense with Robert Griffin III last season, with one major exception in that the Mountaineers do not have a running back like the Bears' Terrance Ganaway last season, who can take some pressure off the quarterback and receivers. And even with a great running back in Ganaway, Baylor still suffered blowout losses last season to the tune of 55-28 at Texas A&M and 59-24 at Oklahoma State. I think the same could happen to the Mountaineers this year.
Texas, meanwhile, has been very impressive to date and just last week went into a hostile environment at Oklahoma State and pulled out a tough win against a team that I think will finish with at least nine wins. Two weeks prior, the Longhorns traveled to Ole Miss and outgained the Rebels by 277 yards -- the same Ole Miss team that played No. 1 Alabama on the road last week and was outgained by only 89 yards.
The Longhorns will be able to chew clock with their outstanding running backs Johnathan Gray and Joe Bergeron, and quarterback David Ash, who has played brilliantly to date with a 10-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, will pick apart a West Virginia secondary that is allowing 353 passing yards per game.
Playing from behind will force Smith to make his first big mistake or two in the passing game, while playing in the most hostile environment the Mountaineers have been exposed to since the LSU game two seasons ago. I will boldly predict that the Longhorns will come away with a two-touchdown-plus win Saturday night.
[+] Enlarge
Jim Brown/US PresswireJeff Driskel gives Florida an edge at the QB position over LSU.
2. Florida will beat LSU in this week's toss-up game
It seems as though I feature the Florida Gators every week in my bold predictions, but they have deserved the praise to date, sitting at 4-0 with impressive road wins at Texas A&M and at Tennessee. The same cannot be said for the Tigers, who limp in off of back-to-back uninspiring performances against the likes of a 1-3 Auburn team and Towson.
I give the offensive edge to the Gators, particularly at the quarterback spot with Jeff Driskel being able to beat you with his arm and legs, while Zach Mettenberger has struggled.
I give the slight defensive edge to LSU, as the Tigers are allowing only 218 yards per game compared with Florida's 305 yards per game, but keep in mind, LSU has played the No. 113 (Auburn), No. 110 (Idaho) and No. 107 (Washington) offenses, while Florida has faced the No. 12 (Texas A&M) and No. 18 (Tennessee) offenses.
A slight special-teams edge goes to Florida, because while both teams have great kickers and punters, Gators kicker Caleb Sturgis has hit 7 of 12 field goals from 50-plus yards in his career, while Drew Alleman is just 0-for-2 in that category. In a low-scoring game where field position and points will come at a premium, that's a significant advantage.
Finally, the intangibles edge also goes to the Gators, as they come in off a bye, are much healthier and are playing with double revenge on their minds, coming off of two straight losses to the Tigers. I've got the Gators coming up with a win and improving to 5-0, while boosting my toss-up game record to 5-1.
3. Georgia will upset South Carolina on the road
Last year's game between the Georgia Bulldogs and South Carolina Gamecocks was a nightmare for UGA fans, as the Dawgs lost at home 45-42. South Carolina scored three non-offensive touchdowns and scored a fourth on a 3-yard "drive" that followed a long interception return. After the game, South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier even admitted that his team was outplayed, even though they came up with the win.
This year both teams come in unbeaten, but they have achieved those records in different ways. Georgia, for the first time in school history, has started the season with five straight games scoring 40 or more points, while South Carolina is allowing just 11 points per game. UGA has struggled on defense to a certain extent, but keep in mind that last week was the first time all season that the Bulldogs were playing with all of their expected starters, and after jumping out to an early 27-10 lead, they may have let up on the gas pedal a bit.
While South Carolina has had to manage with a less-than-100-percent Connor Shaw this year, Marcus Lattimore has yet to look like the player he was prior to last year's knee injury. The Bulldogs have gone 39-10 on the road under Mark Richt, and he will pick up road win No. 40 this week.
4. Oklahoma will put up 400 yards against the nation's No. 1-rated defense
The entire country seems to be dismissing the Oklahoma Sooners after their loss to Kansas State two weeks ago. It's important to remember that three very costly turnovers were what did in the Sooners, including one fumble that was recovered by Kansas State for a touchdown and another fumble that the Sooners lost in the end zone as they were going in to score a touchdown themselves. At that point, Oklahoma had a nine-to-three first-down edge and could have led 10-0, but instead trailed 7-3.
Last week I wrote that the Texas Tech defense, while much improved from last year's team, is one of the more overrated units in the country. After playing the likes of Northwestern State, Texas State, New Mexico and Iowa State, that defense will be in for a rude awakening this week. My computer calls for the Sooners to roll up 400 yards on offense, which is more than double what the Red Raiders have been giving up this season (average of 168 yards per game allowed).
Texas Tech has beaten Oklahoma four straight times in odd-numbered seasons (2005, '07, '09 and '11) and Oklahoma has returned the favor the following year each of the first three times. The Sooners will make it four-for-four here.
Phil Steele has published his annual college football preview magazine for the past 18 years. You can follow his work at PhilSteele.com.
