2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 0-2, -$102
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Haven’t had an 0-for-2-or-worse day in weeks, and unfortunately, that’s exactly what happened yesterday to kick off my 2012 postseason run, although I obviously should have been 1-1 if not for a bad beat in my best bet Lohse vs Medlen under. It’s painful how I had that game without the truly fluke-ish and bizarre string of events that unfolded throughout the contest (David Ross striking out on the pitch before he hit his homerun, and was wrongfully awarded a timeout according to Major League Baseball rules, which threw off Lohse’s mindset in that at-bat and directly cost him his only two runs allowed; The Braves, the top-fielding team in the National League, making three errors, leading to a bunch of unearned runs, not to mention the effect it had on Medlen’s psyche. Just UNREAL what took place last night, AND I even guaranteed David Ross would have a monster game! Who else in the country did that?). However, I was absolutely wrong on Saunders vs Darvish, but luckily that was for basically the minimum, as I didn’t have a real feel for that game. Anyway, you just have to put it all behind you because it happens, especially when you’re someone like me who has taken zero days off these past six months-and-change. Interestingly, I also received a bad beat on the first day of the postseason last year (Losing Matt Moore vs CJ Wilson under in Texas,remember, which was due to fluke bad fielding as well) so I know I can recover from it quickly. That being said, let's see what we have to work with today...
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants (Best Bet) - Price TBD
Johnny Cueto vs Matt Cain
UNDER 6.5
Not surprised to see the line where it’s at. In fact, one could easily legitimately argue their case that this game should be an even 6, which is something we have seen a handful of times throughout the past couple of years for games taking place in San Francisco. Thus, if you’re on the under like me, you have to appreciate with where theline is at because it certainly wasn’t going to be 7. In any case, there’s alot of potential for a pitcher’s duel here given the two starters that we’re banking on. First, you have the great Matt Cain, who we all know is truly excellent and very dependable for any given under. Overall for the season, Cain ended up 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, which is terrific all across the board, but look at these dynamite numbers at home this year: 8-3 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with opposing batters hitting just .207 off him. That’s no coincidence, as if you look at Cain’s splits throughout his career, he’s always been better home at AT&T Park. In addition, the Giants’ right-hander ended his season strong, recording an ERA just over 2.50 in his final six starts of the season that consumed September and October, meaning he’s entering this with his usual confidence. Of course, the regular season isn’t always indicative of the postseason because it brings about incomparable pressure, which thus requires a different mindset, but there’s no way you can doubt Matt Cain after what he did in the 2010 postseason. Don’t remember? Maybe this will refresh your memory: Three starts spanning 21.1 IP, 0 ER, 13 H, 13 Ks, and 7 BB. Uh, that’s a 0.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP right there, thus proving that Cain is indeed battle-tested and knows how to approach a playoff assignment. As a result, Cain should be in prime position to control his own fate tonight.
On the other side of the equation is someone who actually has Cy Young credentials this year (Not to discount Cain’s season, though, because his was obviously great, too), that being Reds’ bonafide ace Johnny Cueto, who was nothing short of magnificent this season all-year long. Actually, “magnificent” might be an understatement. It’s hard to find someone that was more consistent than Cueto in 2012, as his ERA was never even above 2.99 at all this season. In fact, there was a very cool statistic I discovered and brought up before anyone else, which indicates what an unders machine Cueto was throughout this entire season, as his first 20 starts of the year all clocked in at a combined nine runs or less (With only one of those starts actually adding up to nine runs). For the whole campaign, out of his 33 total starts, 30 of them saw nine runs or less being scored, which is just mind-boggling when you study this stuff every single day for years and never see that in any other pitcher over the course of a given season. It’s just incredible, and a lot of that has to do with Cueto’s consistency because when he’s on his game, which was often in 2012 (19-9, 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), that might, in turn, bring out the best from the opposing starting pitcher, which is easily attainable when you’re facing someone like Matt Cain. Pitchers like duels because it becomes about them, thus meaning they’ll usually have their best stuff on display, and as long as they give each other that vibe early on, they won’t want to be the first to blink, while trying to pitch their club to a Game 1 victory. Of course, there’s nothing like the postseason, as I’ve already talked about how it requires a different mentality, and in Cueto’s only career playoff start, which occurred in 2010, he showed he has it - at least in that game - when he limited the Phillies to one earned run over five strong innings. At the end of the day, this is a matchup of two aces who had remarkable seasons, pitching for two teams who have notably good bullpens, so what else could you ask for when anticipating a pitcher’s duel? Hopefully one doesn’t flinch early and we should see both starters sustain their success throughout the evening.
Recommend, And MAY Bet:
Jarrod Parker vs Justin Verlander UNDER7.5
I’ll let you all know leading up to gametime if I take this under because there’s absolutely something here that I’m very close to putting my finger on. At the same time, though, this could be one of those “in-betweeners” that I’ve talked about before, that being a game that is really just so close to the line, and will finish right around the line, that makes both sides right in the end regardless. I primarily see a 6-1/6-2/7-0/7-2 type of game, and NOTHING ELSE, so if you trust my instincts - the same instincts that have correctly predicted exact scores for various games throughout this entire season - you’d probably want to at least bet both sides on the runline to ensure yourself some money (A bet I interestingly never see. If you really think a game will end by more than a run, than bet both runlines. It works). Anyway, I just figure one of these pitchers will be absolutely dominant, which there is especially potential for with Justin Verlander on the hill. No need to repeat his incredible stats, which are consistent and similar to recent years that going over them would be redundant. In this instance, he’s facing an offense that really, in my opinion, is a tad bit overrated, and doesn’t really have a superstar (Although Josh Reddick is slowly climbing that ladder) that defines them. As a result, I think they might struggle in the beginning of this series offensively, which gives them no chance against a guy like Verlander. If that happens, then all you need is for Jarrod Parker to kind of hang in there, which he is more than capable of doing, as he proved to us for most of his rookie campaign. However, trusting a rookie in an under of his first career playoff game, on the road no less in a hostile environment, is certainly not a comforting bet and could require a lot of sweating. Thus, even as I go out this afternoon for the day, I’ll have this matchup on my mind first and foremost over the next few hours, and I’ll let you guys know if I take any action on it. Just remember what I said: 6-1/7-2/7-0. It’s going to be close.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Haven’t had an 0-for-2-or-worse day in weeks, and unfortunately, that’s exactly what happened yesterday to kick off my 2012 postseason run, although I obviously should have been 1-1 if not for a bad beat in my best bet Lohse vs Medlen under. It’s painful how I had that game without the truly fluke-ish and bizarre string of events that unfolded throughout the contest (David Ross striking out on the pitch before he hit his homerun, and was wrongfully awarded a timeout according to Major League Baseball rules, which threw off Lohse’s mindset in that at-bat and directly cost him his only two runs allowed; The Braves, the top-fielding team in the National League, making three errors, leading to a bunch of unearned runs, not to mention the effect it had on Medlen’s psyche. Just UNREAL what took place last night, AND I even guaranteed David Ross would have a monster game! Who else in the country did that?). However, I was absolutely wrong on Saunders vs Darvish, but luckily that was for basically the minimum, as I didn’t have a real feel for that game. Anyway, you just have to put it all behind you because it happens, especially when you’re someone like me who has taken zero days off these past six months-and-change. Interestingly, I also received a bad beat on the first day of the postseason last year (Losing Matt Moore vs CJ Wilson under in Texas,remember, which was due to fluke bad fielding as well) so I know I can recover from it quickly. That being said, let's see what we have to work with today...
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants (Best Bet) - Price TBD
Johnny Cueto vs Matt Cain
UNDER 6.5
Not surprised to see the line where it’s at. In fact, one could easily legitimately argue their case that this game should be an even 6, which is something we have seen a handful of times throughout the past couple of years for games taking place in San Francisco. Thus, if you’re on the under like me, you have to appreciate with where theline is at because it certainly wasn’t going to be 7. In any case, there’s alot of potential for a pitcher’s duel here given the two starters that we’re banking on. First, you have the great Matt Cain, who we all know is truly excellent and very dependable for any given under. Overall for the season, Cain ended up 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, which is terrific all across the board, but look at these dynamite numbers at home this year: 8-3 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with opposing batters hitting just .207 off him. That’s no coincidence, as if you look at Cain’s splits throughout his career, he’s always been better home at AT&T Park. In addition, the Giants’ right-hander ended his season strong, recording an ERA just over 2.50 in his final six starts of the season that consumed September and October, meaning he’s entering this with his usual confidence. Of course, the regular season isn’t always indicative of the postseason because it brings about incomparable pressure, which thus requires a different mindset, but there’s no way you can doubt Matt Cain after what he did in the 2010 postseason. Don’t remember? Maybe this will refresh your memory: Three starts spanning 21.1 IP, 0 ER, 13 H, 13 Ks, and 7 BB. Uh, that’s a 0.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP right there, thus proving that Cain is indeed battle-tested and knows how to approach a playoff assignment. As a result, Cain should be in prime position to control his own fate tonight.
On the other side of the equation is someone who actually has Cy Young credentials this year (Not to discount Cain’s season, though, because his was obviously great, too), that being Reds’ bonafide ace Johnny Cueto, who was nothing short of magnificent this season all-year long. Actually, “magnificent” might be an understatement. It’s hard to find someone that was more consistent than Cueto in 2012, as his ERA was never even above 2.99 at all this season. In fact, there was a very cool statistic I discovered and brought up before anyone else, which indicates what an unders machine Cueto was throughout this entire season, as his first 20 starts of the year all clocked in at a combined nine runs or less (With only one of those starts actually adding up to nine runs). For the whole campaign, out of his 33 total starts, 30 of them saw nine runs or less being scored, which is just mind-boggling when you study this stuff every single day for years and never see that in any other pitcher over the course of a given season. It’s just incredible, and a lot of that has to do with Cueto’s consistency because when he’s on his game, which was often in 2012 (19-9, 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), that might, in turn, bring out the best from the opposing starting pitcher, which is easily attainable when you’re facing someone like Matt Cain. Pitchers like duels because it becomes about them, thus meaning they’ll usually have their best stuff on display, and as long as they give each other that vibe early on, they won’t want to be the first to blink, while trying to pitch their club to a Game 1 victory. Of course, there’s nothing like the postseason, as I’ve already talked about how it requires a different mentality, and in Cueto’s only career playoff start, which occurred in 2010, he showed he has it - at least in that game - when he limited the Phillies to one earned run over five strong innings. At the end of the day, this is a matchup of two aces who had remarkable seasons, pitching for two teams who have notably good bullpens, so what else could you ask for when anticipating a pitcher’s duel? Hopefully one doesn’t flinch early and we should see both starters sustain their success throughout the evening.
Recommend, And MAY Bet:
Jarrod Parker vs Justin Verlander UNDER7.5
I’ll let you all know leading up to gametime if I take this under because there’s absolutely something here that I’m very close to putting my finger on. At the same time, though, this could be one of those “in-betweeners” that I’ve talked about before, that being a game that is really just so close to the line, and will finish right around the line, that makes both sides right in the end regardless. I primarily see a 6-1/6-2/7-0/7-2 type of game, and NOTHING ELSE, so if you trust my instincts - the same instincts that have correctly predicted exact scores for various games throughout this entire season - you’d probably want to at least bet both sides on the runline to ensure yourself some money (A bet I interestingly never see. If you really think a game will end by more than a run, than bet both runlines. It works). Anyway, I just figure one of these pitchers will be absolutely dominant, which there is especially potential for with Justin Verlander on the hill. No need to repeat his incredible stats, which are consistent and similar to recent years that going over them would be redundant. In this instance, he’s facing an offense that really, in my opinion, is a tad bit overrated, and doesn’t really have a superstar (Although Josh Reddick is slowly climbing that ladder) that defines them. As a result, I think they might struggle in the beginning of this series offensively, which gives them no chance against a guy like Verlander. If that happens, then all you need is for Jarrod Parker to kind of hang in there, which he is more than capable of doing, as he proved to us for most of his rookie campaign. However, trusting a rookie in an under of his first career playoff game, on the road no less in a hostile environment, is certainly not a comforting bet and could require a lot of sweating. Thus, even as I go out this afternoon for the day, I’ll have this matchup on my mind first and foremost over the next few hours, and I’ll let you guys know if I take any action on it. Just remember what I said: 6-1/7-2/7-0. It’s going to be close.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
