NFL Week 5 Line Moves

Search

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
Week 5 line moves, Millman Rankings
in.gif



It's Week 2 of the revolution. And by that, I mean the second week since I unleashed the Millman Rankings on the world. For those of you foolish enough to have missed last week's column; for those of you who missed my not-at-all-obnoxious promotion of the column on Twitter; for those who somehow ignored my blatant self-promotion of the Millman Rankings on the newly named "SVP & Russillo" show, here is a reminder of what these trademarked rankings are:
<!-- begin inline 1 -->Millman Rankings

<table><thead><tr><th>PLAYER</th><th>PSVAR</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Aaron Rodgers</td><td>10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Eli Manning</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Drew Brees</td><td>9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Tom Brady</td><td>8.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Peyton Manning</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Matt Ryan</td><td>8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Philip Rivers</td><td>7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ben Roethlisberger</td><td>7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Joe Flacco</td><td>6.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Josh Freeman</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cam Newton</td><td>6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Matt Schaub</td><td>5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jay Cutler</td><td>5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Michael Vick</td><td>5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Andy Dalton</td><td>4.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Tony Romo</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Sam Bradford</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Andrew Luck</td><td>4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ray Rice</td><td>3.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>LeSean McCoy</td><td>3.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Calvin Johnson</td><td>3.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Matthew Stafford</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Darrelle Revis</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Julius Peppers</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Nick Mangold</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Haloti Ngata</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jared Allen</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Joe Thomas</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Joe Haden</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Todd McClure</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jake Long</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Clay Matthews</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mike Iupati</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Carl Nicks</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>DeMarcus Ware</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Larry Fitzgerald</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Troy Polamalu</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Duane Brown</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Marshal Yanda</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Darren McFadden</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>James Laurinaitis</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>A.J. Green</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Robert Griffin III</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Nate Solder</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Chris Snee</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Cortland Finnegan</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jahri Evans</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mike Pouncey</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Russell Okung</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Adrian Peterson</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Maurice Jones-Drew</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Alex Smith</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>James Harrison</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Tamba Hali</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Aqib Talib</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Roberto Garza</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Chris Myers</td><td>1.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Jordan Gross</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>J.J. Watt</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Maurkice Pouncey</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Von Miller</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Calais Campbell</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Christian Ponder</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>London Fletcher</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Rolando McClain</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Sebastian Janikowski</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Quentin Jammer</td><td>1</td></tr></tbody></table>

<!-- end inline 1 -->A list, from 1-50, of the NFL players who are worth the most value toward the point spread. I call the metric that is the foundation for the Millman Rankings the Point Spread Value Above Replacement (PSVAR). I am, of course, inspired by the great debate over who will win the AL MVP -- WAR god Mike Trout or humdrum Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera. The premise is that elite players in the league have a value when it comes to the point spread. Some are worth 10 points (the top QBs) some are worth two points (think shutdown cornerbacks). And their PSVAR is calculated by not just their value to the team, but by how much more valuable they are than the guy playing behind them.



Makes sense, right?
<offer>For example, in the new rankings, you will see that Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson is tied with LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice for 11th, worth 3.5 points against the spread. Meaning any game he misses, the line should be adjusted by 3.5 points fading the Lions. That's high for a non-QB, among the highest for guys in that group, and is indicative of how irreplaceable Megatron is. By comparison, Johnson's teammate and quarterback, Matthew Stafford, has a PSVAR of just three points, 12th in the Millman Rankings.



WTF Millman?! You are an idiot! Why do you suck so bad? Well, Mom, I'm glad you asked. And thank you for reading. When the Lions lose Stafford for a game, it's true they are losing a guy who threw for more than 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. But his backup, Shaun Hill, is one of the more capable No. 2s in the league. Some teams (say the Jets, for instance) probably wish they had a No. 1 as competent as Hill. Thus, the comparatively low PSVAR for Stafford.


Last week I just toyed with the Millman Rankings. Todd Fuhrman and Kenny White of DonBest.com gave me some thoughts on who the most valuable quarterbacks were along with non-QB offensive players and defensive players. We grouped them into point ranges, 8-10 points for the passers, 2-3 points for the offensive guys and 1-2 for the defenders. This week, I wanted to dig a little deeper. But those guys work for a professional outfit, and that kind of info is proprietary. He happily gave me thoughts on some games and how injuries are impacting the lines (see below) but he wasn't about to reveal state secrets.



I needed an independent source, someone who could help me compile data and understands point spreads. One such fellow happened to stop by my office this week, dropped from the heavens, like a point spread-covering touchdown being handed to you by refs who don't know any better.



A few years ago I got an email from a reader named Evan Abrams. He was a recent graduate of Indiana University, my alma mater, and yearned to work in the sports betting industry. The son of a Wall Streeter who grew up in Manhattan, Abrams proudly claimed he had been gambling since he was a teenager. He went to college, was politely asked to leave his fraternity for bookmaking, and after he graduated started writing about the gambling world. I liked his stuff and we recently got back in touch, so he came to visit me at my palatial office in Building 0 on ESPN's Bristol campus. To be honest, I was surprised to see him. I knew we had a meeting, but I assumed it was a phone call. I did not realize he was making the effort to visit me in person. "I took a train from New York and then a friend who lives out here picked me up," he told me. "I don't have a car."


Gotta love his spirit.



I also liked what he had done with his post-college life. While the rest of his buddies were trying to find respectable jobs, he had committed to making a go of it in the gaming industry. He sells some picks, he writes for websites, he made videos for Don Best. And he gambles. "Honestly, I just want to be a bookmaker. I want to make lines so badly."


Evan and I spent a while chatting about betting philosophies and how to move numbers and syndicates. He showed me the private Twitter lists he has set up that track the best sources of info for every team in every sport so he can get a jump on the lines for breaking news. He showed me his spreadsheets for baseball and his how-to Power Points for the NCAA tourney. It was a passionate display of sports betting knowledge.



At about this time, I legally adopted Evan.


Eventually, after I introduced him to my wife and showed him his new room, our conversation turned to my favorite topic: the individual value of players as they relate to the point spread. The importance of this point was reinforced on my podcast this week with Erin Rynning, a longtime capper, when he said to me, "This is the last great advantage professionals have."



Abrams agreed. And we spent some time breaking down numbers. If the magazine does not get out on time next week, historians will pinpoint this meeting as the reason why. But at the very least, thanks to an assist from Abrams, we have the first official Top 67 -- from Aaron Rodgers to Quentin Jammer -- of the Millman Rankings.


These aren't just randomly selected numbers thrown into a chart. There is historical data, line changes when a player is or is not playing, backup comparisons and on-field success stirred into this brew. For example, here is the breakdown for Matt Ryan, tied with Peyton Manning for No. 5 with PSVAR of eight.



• Ryan has missed two starts in his four-plus seasons with the Falcons, and both of those occurred in 2009 when Chris Redman was the backup.
• Atlanta lost both of those games at home by a combined score of 60-30.
• The week before Ryan got hurt in 2009, Atlanta was minus-12 at home versus the Bucs; The following week, when Redman started at home versus the Eagles, the Falcons were plus-5.5.
• With Luke McCown as his backup, a 27-5 record at home and his current blazing start to 2012, Ryan could easily be on the precipice of an 8.5 or 9 PSVAR with a playoff win or two.


Over the coming weeks the Millman Rankings will be a regular part of the column. We will also highlight a few players each time, explaining the reasoning behind the number. If you have any quibbles, well, feel free to let me know.


Meanwhile, here are some game breakdowns based on injuries from Todd Fuhrman.
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants

Line moves: Opened Giants minus-10.5, currently minus-8.5.
Injury difference: Hakeem Nicks out for the third straight week.
Fuhrman says: "You have seen against Philly that their offense has to go through different playmakers. This move toward Cleveland is a byproduct of the Giants being horrible as heavy favorites. They typically perform up to their level of competition and down to their level of competition."
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Line moves: Opened Packers minus-7, currently Packers minus-6.5
Injury difference: Greg Jennings out.
Fuhrman says: "Obviously not having him against Indy hurts a little because he is not there to stretch the field. If you are laying that many points on the road you want the offense at full speed. But, you don't adjust your point spread because of him. I was surprised to see money come in on Indy though, since they will be going into it without Chuck Pagano."
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings

Line moves: Opened Vikings minus-6.5, currently minus-5.5
Injury difference: Jake Locker out.
Fuhrman says: "Going from Jake locker to Matt Hasselbeck you are not seeing any change. The number is at 5.5 and moved down, but that is as much a play against Minnesota as it is on Hasselbeck. If you look at the Vikings' box score, they had two nonoffensive touchdowns. Even though everyone wants to call them a dark horse, this is a team not familiar with laying anything over a field goal."


Houston Texans at New York Jets

Line moves: Opened Texans minus-7.5, currently minus-8.
Injury difference: Santonio Holmes out for the year.
Fuhrman says: "This is a team at rock bottom, and Santonio Holmes is not going to move the needle. Even if Tim Tebow were to start, it doesn't move the needle. If you are looking to bet on the Jets it is a play against Houston, which is the only team that is 4-0 against the spread."


Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers

Line opened: Steelers minus-2.5, currently Steelers minus-3.5.
Injury difference: Return of Troy Polamalu and James Harrison.
Fuhrman says: "The Steelers are the perfect example of a team we'll finally see priced correctly this week. Getting difference makers like Troy Polamalu and James Harrison back on the defensive side of the ball forces an adjustment in the line from Pittsburgh minus-2.5 to minus-3.5. Each player on his own is worth 1 to 1.5 points to the overall valuation of Pittsburgh, and as we saw against Oakland, they sorely missed their playmakers. When you talk about adjusting an NFL price around the three, the one point adjustment speaks to how important these guys are."
</offer>
 

New member
Joined
Oct 26, 2006
Messages
7,718
Tokens
He thinks Rodgers is worth a 10 point swing compared his back-up entering the same match-up.

So, for this week, say, Rodgers as -8 road favorite against Luck and the Colts. Well, if it were Graham Harrell on the road against Luck & the Colts, the line should be Packers +2.

I get it, don't know if I agree with it fully, but it's interesting. Yes, individual players can move the lines but these are huge swings this guy presents.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,820
Messages
13,439,155
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com