The Cat's MLB Playoff Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - October 7, 2012 - YTD: "1-3" (2012 Season: 361-329-47; 108-82-20, 57% from Aug 2-on)

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2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 1-3, -$119 (Obviously should be 3-1 if not for the ridiculous bad beats)
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Well, certainly not at all the start I envisioned, but what else can I possibly do? I’ve taken four games thus far, and I’ve been 100-percent right on three of them. I mean, that’s what you aim for. You have to be on the right side of a bet, rather than obviously taking your chances with the wrong side of a bet and hoping for some kind of fluke bullshit break, but unfortunately, Vegas has been rewarding those people thus far in the postseason. The money doesn’t even matter to me as much. Dominating these over/unders is about pride and being all over a given pitching matchup,while hoping the other factors remain steady as they should be (Ex. Last night’s disgraceful ending in Reds/Giants… you’re supposed to put yourself in that position in an under when you have two rock-solid bullpens putting the finishing touches on it, especially when it’s 3-1 in the ninth! And losing an under you completely deserved with two strikes and two outs in the bottom of the ninth on a wild pitch? Unreal. And that doesn’t even mention the other run scored in the top of the ninth, also with two outs, on a passed ball!) It’s just so frustrating because I can only be right so many goddamn times that I also have to get matchups “wrong” on occasion, and obviously, I won’t get any sort of break when that happens and that hurts me mentally even more. Losing bad beats, especially over three consecutive days that costs a near-$400 swing when you were 100-percent right on all of them, takes its toll and makes you second-guess yourself at that point in time. It ruins concentration and my sharply proven mindset. It’s especially bad when it happens going into a Sunday, when my mentality is more so focused on football, and as a result, I’ll only be taking one or two games today for a small amount. Have to put these bad beats behind me as soon as possible, hopefully with a win today…


Tom Milone vs Doug Fister OVER 7.5 - $21 for $20
As I’ve said before, I know it is “Tommy Milone” this year but I’m a very sentimental guy, and when he first popped onto the scene last year, he was simply “Tom Milone” with the Nationals, not to mention I was undefeated with his over/unders last year (2-0), so I’ve chosento stick with that. Anyway, this over is more about him than it is Doug Fister, as Milone has struggled on the road all throughout 2012, although he did improve his road pitching in the final month-and-change of the season. He’s also not as good a daytime pitcher (5.12 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 10 early starts) as he is during the night, and considering this one has a noon start time, which is like a game at 9 in the morning for the Athletics, that gives us a better chance that that version of Tom Milone will be on display today. Fister also isn’t as good during the day, but he’s always been electric at home, which is why I’m not putting any type of big bet on this game. In fact, the rare times I take a Doug Fister over, I always get nervous because as he’s shown several times throughoutthe past couple of years, he can absolutely take over a game and dominate the opposing lineup. As long as the A’s scratch across a couple of runs against him, we’ll be in good shape, as I feel this contest will be more of a lopsided affair with the Tigers’ offense doing damage against Milone.



**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
 

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already pulled the trigger on the play but would like to get your thoughts on the Nationals total. Good luck today, that was a tough one last night, for sure.
 
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Also taking:

Gio Gonzalez vs Adam Wainwright UNDER 7 - $28 for $25
There is no doubt in my mind that Gio Gonzalez, who I really hope wins the NL Cy Young, will thrive in a playoff setting. I've been on this guy's bandwagon since 2010 when he was quietly regularly recording quality start after quality start while he was still in Oakland. Simply put, he was an unders machine that no one paid attention to because Oakland never did anything at that time with their putrid everyday lineup. Now here we are a couple of years later and Gio Gonzalez has morphed into the bonafide ace that I always thought he could become, and he'll further prove that sentiment with a good showing in his first career postseason, in my opinion. Then there is Adam Wainwright, who has come a long way throughout this 2012 season to get back to his old form. Considering how he's always been one of the better big-game pitchers out there, and the fact that he excels at home, I think he, too, will be on top of his game, which hopefully is enough to keep this game low scoring. I think we have a better chance at seeing that version of Wainwright, given how effectively he ended his season down the stretch, so as long as he's feeling confident, that's the Wainwright we should see. At the end of the day, this is like a battle of old-school aces in Game 1 of an old-school series that figures to be very pitching-dictated.
 
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like the over but i think oakland might pull this one off.

Nah, I disagree. This Oakland team, mentally, reminds me a bit of the old Rangers teams of the late-90's. I mean, my Rangers obviously had bigger name superstars back then (Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Dean Palmer, etc.), but we were on similar hot streaks offensively before entering the postseason, which was new territory. Same situation for the A's, who I just think will struggle out of the gate, and it showed in Game 1. I mean, it's easy for that to happen against Verlander but I actually think this Oakland team will struggle significantly offensively, just as those high-potent Rangers teams did when they came into the postseason and were very new to the process.

Like I said, I'm relying a lot more on the Detroit offense to win this specific over than I am with Oakland's lineup. The A's will not be scoring often in this series
 

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Do you thing st.louis can win today?I like that game the most.Maybe 3-2 or 3-1.
 

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Do you thing st.louis can win today?I like that game the most.Maybe 3-2 or 3-1.

Cards Crush Lefties like Gio. Now Gio did have a good game against them the only time they saw him this season..BUT...We shall see
 

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Nah, I disagree. This Oakland team, mentally, reminds me a bit of the old Rangers teams of the late-90's. I mean, my Rangers obviously had bigger name superstars back then (Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Dean Palmer, etc.), but we were on similar hot streaks offensively before entering the postseason, which was new territory. Same situation for the A's, who I just think will struggle out of the gate, and it showed in Game 1. I mean, it's easy for that to happen against Verlander but I actually think this Oakland team will struggle significantly offensively, just as those high-potent Rangers teams did when they came into the postseason and were very new to the process.

Like I said, I'm relying a lot more on the Detroit offense to win this specific over than I am with Oakland's lineup. The A's will not be scoring often in this series

This team has more walk offs - 14 - than any team. Have no idea what you mean by mentally similar to Texas. They are a very resilient bunch.
 
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Well how about that? A RARE break for The Cat on that Milone vs Fister over, which I did not deserve at all. Whoever had the under was 100-percent right... apparently, the theme of this year's postseason, at least as it pertains to over/unders, is get the game right and lose. Three out of the five games thus far have seen the wrong bet win.

And of course, one of the rare times I get a break, it's in a bet for the minimum... as usual.
 
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This team has more walk offs - 14 - than any team. Have no idea what you mean by mentally similar to Texas. They are a very resilient bunch.

Wasnt referring to their ability of garnering dramatic wins, which is 100-percent correct, of course. I just think they're following a similar path as those Texas teams from the late-90s who would slug any pitcher, but once they entered unfamiliar territory, that being the postseason, I thought they might collectively struggle. Just an opinion; correct in Game 1, not so correct in Game 2
 
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Now that's how you bounce back from bad beats - with a 2-0 performance. Finished with baseball for day but make sure you check out my football thread, where I'm dominating again, as usual, and I have some action on the night game. There's a reason I'm at 60-percent in football, even this much into the season
 

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I think you made up for the bad beats today. Should have been 0-2 and ended up 2-0. It usually evens out. Cards score even 1 run with the baases loaded and nobody out and you lose that bet. Not to mention the 2 run HR that Werth robbed. But like I said, it all comes around eventually. Long playoff road ahead, gonna be some weird shit coming I think
 
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I think you made up for the bad beats today. Should have been 0-2 and ended up 2-0. It usually evens out. Cards score even 1 run with the baases loaded and nobody out and you lose that bet. Not to mention the 2 run HR that Werth robbed. But like I said, it all comes around eventually. Long playoff road ahead, gonna be some weird shit coming I think

That's happened a lot to me during the regular season (Most of those times interestingly were the Cleveland Indians) where I had an over with a team that had bases-loaded, no outs and couldn't plate a run - and ended up ultimately costing the over - so I'm not sure that qualifies. At the end of the day, I got what I had to get out of both starting pitchers, who pitched servicably enough to garner this under. I think under backers earned that victory but yes, I absolutely agree that we're going to be in store for some absolutely strange stuff to come.

As for the first game today, no question. Bad beat for whoever had the under. Milone and Fister were each outstanding and I feel for those people who had the under and made a brilliant bold call, given Milone's well-documented road struggles this year. That one I did not deserve but I'd say I earned the under in Gonzalez vs Wainwright because that's exactly the position you want to be in: Hand the under to two very good bullpens and let them take care of the rest.
 

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It is the position you want to be in but the bullpen gave up 3 runners and got no outs. Should have scored at least 1 and then the under is gone. Plus the HR robbed and not scoring from 2nd. I think you have to say you were pretty lucky there. Remember 1 thing, as I know you are all about starting pitching only, but in playoffs, teams will pull their starter quickly and a lot of playoff games get to the pens early, so just something to keep in mind. Gl with what is gonna be a strange playoffs
 
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It is the position you want to be in but the bullpen gave up 3 runners and got no outs. Should have scored at least 1 and then the under is gone. Plus the HR robbed and not scoring from 2nd. I think you have to say you were pretty lucky there. Remember 1 thing, as I know you are all about starting pitching only, but in playoffs, teams will pull their starter quickly and a lot of playoff games get to the pens early, so just something to keep in mind. Gl with what is gonna be a strange playoffs

True, you are mostly right there. I'll just add this, though, skyla: There have been A LOT of times this year where a team had bases loaded, nobody out and didn't score... it certainly should be unacceptable, as all you need is a Major League hitter (Just about most of the time) to pretty much simply put the ball in play, but it's scary how often it's been happening in 2012.

Here's to a very strange playoffs
 

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Here Here Buddy. Lets try to avoid the moose this year. I use try to use your pitcher breakdown if I am a bit stuck on a side. I think we can make some money this year!!!! But we know some weird things are coming. October is not a month to be messed with...Ha Ha (FYI, I was born this month, so I know :))
 
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Here Here Buddy. Lets try to avoid the moose this year. I use try to use your pitcher breakdown if I am a bit stuck on a side. I think we can make some money this year!!!! But we know some weird things are coming. October is not a month to be messed with...Ha Ha (FYI, I was born this month, so I know :))

Haha you called it on the nose. Speaking of weird things coming... Sabathia vs Hammel tonight was over/under 7.5/8 (Opened up at 8 before shifting down to 7.5 this morning).

Well, ONCE AGAIN, the wrong side of the bet is rewarded, as whoever had the under was clearly right, having received two terrific outings from both starting pitchers, who got the game to be 2-2 into the ninth inning. More than 80-percent of the time, when that's the scenario and the over/under is 7.5 or higher, you will win said under... not in this instance, though, as Jim Johnson was rocked for several runs in the top of the ninth (Yet another example why you shouldn't bring your closer into a non-save situation. This is why I stress it all the time: PITCHING IS ALL MENTAL! PERIOD), ultimately leading to a 7-2 final. Ouch.

Skyla, and everyone else for that matter, this is getting reallll scary. HALF of these games are seeing the wrong people win, at least as it pertains to the over/under, and that's not fun to think about. I'm getting real worried for what unfolds over these next few days at least, but on the bright side, we always have my patented Law of Averages to sort that out, right? That's exactly what I'm leaning towards. As we approach these middle games of each series, we should start to see more of a norm... hopefully.
 

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The ROAD teams are taking care of business thus far in MLB postseason! Something to take note of.
 

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