2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 4-3, -$49
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Feels good to have bounced back from my 0-2 start (Including the Lohse vs Medlen bad beat) to the postseason with a 4-1 performance over the past few days, although that really should be a 5-0 run if not for the painful bad beat in Game 1 of Reds/Giants Saturday night, but what can you do? I’m just thankful I was able to recover quickly because as I continually warned you guys coming down the stretch, there are no guarantees in the playoffs. Anything can happen, and those types of games aren’t my strength, compared to the mundane, routine games of the regular season that I thrive on. In any case, here we are now days into the Divisional Series round, so let’s see what this latest slate on this Tuesday has to offer…
San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds (Best Bet) - $60 for $50
Ryan Vogelsong vs Homer Bailey
UNDER 8
When it comes to the middle-games of a playoff series, I believe they have more potential from a betting perspective, at least as it pertains to over/unders, because at this point, everyone has, for the most part, settled down their nerves and are ready to contribute more of their usual, expected production, now that the variables involved are more steady. That could be a very good thing as it relates to this particular pitching matchup. Let me start with Ryan Vogelsong, who, only a few weeks ago, was struggling so mightily that there was even a “Fade Ryan Vogelsong” thread created to make money off his misfortunes, despite his very good recent track record over these past couple of years. I don’t remember if that idea had much success at that point in time, but it certainly wasn’t a bad idea, given Vogelsong’s ugly seven-start stretch that resulted in his ERA jumping up almost a full run… in early-September. Over those aforementioned seven starts, Vogelsong gave up three runs or more in each one, with five of them seeing him allow four or more. Luckily for the former Pirate great, Vogelsong bounced back significantly, yielding just one measly run over his final three starts (Spanning 17 innings) to close out the season, leading me to believe that he has his confidence back, and thus, is ready to pump out a quality start in the biggest assignment of his career. Unfortunately, with this being his first career postseason start, we really don’t have precedent for how he’s feeling mentally, but the important thing is that after his hot stretch to end his 2012 campaign, he has confidence again, which is what you absolutely need to be successful as a pitcher, especially in these higher-pressure situations. As long as Vogelsong maintains his momentum from the end of the season more so than thinking about his team’s very troubling 0-2 hole, then we should get him in his top form.
Opposing him will be Homer Bailey, who will be in a very nice spot here. First and foremost, let me just say that I am very impressed with what Bailey has done this year. Why? Well for years, I always thought he was overrated, and while I never really mentioned that on here (If anything, I took more of his unders than overs this year, especially lately), I just wanted to mention that because I always find it intriguing when you suddenly want to back a pitcher after being down on him for awhile. So yeah, I was pleasantly surprised with Bailey’s impressive 2012 season, one in which that saw him go 13-10 with a more-than-respectable 3.68 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, while also eating up more than 200 innings, which is usually the standalone sign that you’ve had a good year as a starting pitcher. And of course, you can’t forget his no-hitter from a couple of weeks ago against AJ Burnett (My FIFTH under on a no-hitter/perfect game this year, by the way. Is that a Vegas record?). That all being known, you have to believe Homer Bailey is in the best stretch of his entire career (1.86 ERA, 0.66 WHIP over seven September/October starts), and when a starting pitcher is feeling that comfortable entering a start, especially a lesser-pressure situation with his team already up 2-0 for the series, well, that usually means good things are on the immediate horizon. Like his counterpart this evening, Bailey has no playoff experience, but I just hope he doesn’t really change his currently very confident mindset because that’s what this matchup is all about: Two pitchers who are very confident at this point in time, based on how strong they ended their respective seasons (Especially Vogelsong, having overcome the ugliest stretch he's had since coming back last year), going toe-to-toe. With that reasoning, I’d like to believe it will be solid pitching that dictates this Game 3 affair, as both guys feel comfortable and may not have the nerves that their predecessors had in the earlier games of this series. Yes, the bullpens blew my Game 1 under in the cruelest of ways (Losing an under on a wild pitch with two strikes and two outs in the bottom of the 9th before Buster Posey struck out to end the game. In the top half, there was also a run scored with two outs on a passed ball before Zach Cozart struck out to end the inning), but given how dependable they’ve been over the course of an entire season, we want this under in their hands. If the starters showcase their usual fine pitching, which is more likely with their current psyches, then we’ll indeed get this under to the bullpens, who will hopefully sustain it this time. But let’s get there first before worrying about it, and these two starters, especially at this point in time, are more than capable.
Also Leaning On:
Anibal Sanchez vs Brett Anderson OVER 7
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Feels good to have bounced back from my 0-2 start (Including the Lohse vs Medlen bad beat) to the postseason with a 4-1 performance over the past few days, although that really should be a 5-0 run if not for the painful bad beat in Game 1 of Reds/Giants Saturday night, but what can you do? I’m just thankful I was able to recover quickly because as I continually warned you guys coming down the stretch, there are no guarantees in the playoffs. Anything can happen, and those types of games aren’t my strength, compared to the mundane, routine games of the regular season that I thrive on. In any case, here we are now days into the Divisional Series round, so let’s see what this latest slate on this Tuesday has to offer…
San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds (Best Bet) - $60 for $50
Ryan Vogelsong vs Homer Bailey
UNDER 8
When it comes to the middle-games of a playoff series, I believe they have more potential from a betting perspective, at least as it pertains to over/unders, because at this point, everyone has, for the most part, settled down their nerves and are ready to contribute more of their usual, expected production, now that the variables involved are more steady. That could be a very good thing as it relates to this particular pitching matchup. Let me start with Ryan Vogelsong, who, only a few weeks ago, was struggling so mightily that there was even a “Fade Ryan Vogelsong” thread created to make money off his misfortunes, despite his very good recent track record over these past couple of years. I don’t remember if that idea had much success at that point in time, but it certainly wasn’t a bad idea, given Vogelsong’s ugly seven-start stretch that resulted in his ERA jumping up almost a full run… in early-September. Over those aforementioned seven starts, Vogelsong gave up three runs or more in each one, with five of them seeing him allow four or more. Luckily for the former Pirate great, Vogelsong bounced back significantly, yielding just one measly run over his final three starts (Spanning 17 innings) to close out the season, leading me to believe that he has his confidence back, and thus, is ready to pump out a quality start in the biggest assignment of his career. Unfortunately, with this being his first career postseason start, we really don’t have precedent for how he’s feeling mentally, but the important thing is that after his hot stretch to end his 2012 campaign, he has confidence again, which is what you absolutely need to be successful as a pitcher, especially in these higher-pressure situations. As long as Vogelsong maintains his momentum from the end of the season more so than thinking about his team’s very troubling 0-2 hole, then we should get him in his top form.
Opposing him will be Homer Bailey, who will be in a very nice spot here. First and foremost, let me just say that I am very impressed with what Bailey has done this year. Why? Well for years, I always thought he was overrated, and while I never really mentioned that on here (If anything, I took more of his unders than overs this year, especially lately), I just wanted to mention that because I always find it intriguing when you suddenly want to back a pitcher after being down on him for awhile. So yeah, I was pleasantly surprised with Bailey’s impressive 2012 season, one in which that saw him go 13-10 with a more-than-respectable 3.68 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, while also eating up more than 200 innings, which is usually the standalone sign that you’ve had a good year as a starting pitcher. And of course, you can’t forget his no-hitter from a couple of weeks ago against AJ Burnett (My FIFTH under on a no-hitter/perfect game this year, by the way. Is that a Vegas record?). That all being known, you have to believe Homer Bailey is in the best stretch of his entire career (1.86 ERA, 0.66 WHIP over seven September/October starts), and when a starting pitcher is feeling that comfortable entering a start, especially a lesser-pressure situation with his team already up 2-0 for the series, well, that usually means good things are on the immediate horizon. Like his counterpart this evening, Bailey has no playoff experience, but I just hope he doesn’t really change his currently very confident mindset because that’s what this matchup is all about: Two pitchers who are very confident at this point in time, based on how strong they ended their respective seasons (Especially Vogelsong, having overcome the ugliest stretch he's had since coming back last year), going toe-to-toe. With that reasoning, I’d like to believe it will be solid pitching that dictates this Game 3 affair, as both guys feel comfortable and may not have the nerves that their predecessors had in the earlier games of this series. Yes, the bullpens blew my Game 1 under in the cruelest of ways (Losing an under on a wild pitch with two strikes and two outs in the bottom of the 9th before Buster Posey struck out to end the game. In the top half, there was also a run scored with two outs on a passed ball before Zach Cozart struck out to end the inning), but given how dependable they’ve been over the course of an entire season, we want this under in their hands. If the starters showcase their usual fine pitching, which is more likely with their current psyches, then we’ll indeed get this under to the bullpens, who will hopefully sustain it this time. But let’s get there first before worrying about it, and these two starters, especially at this point in time, are more than capable.
Also Leaning On:
Anibal Sanchez vs Brett Anderson OVER 7
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
