2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 5-3, +$1 (Typical money management weakness on my part)
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
It’s days like these you have to appreciate as a gambler during the playoffs, especially for someone like me who hasn’t taken a single day off these past six-plus months, as you have the maximum number of options on display. On the contrary, heading into this tenth day of October, I just thought it was a weird slate of games. Looking at the afternoon matchups, I couldn’t get a real feel for Carpenter vs Jackson because going up against his old team, following the absolutely disgusting performance he had versus them last week (Nine runs in less than two innings… yeesh), you really don’t know what you’re going to get from Edwin Jackson, and with the line strictly at 7.5, there’s no telling if it could end up 5-2 or 5-3 so the over/under was an absolute “must-avoid.” In the other afternoon game, you have an instance where the Reds didn’t even decide their starting pitcher until hours before gametime (Homer Bailey supposedly blurted out it would be Mike Leake during a postgame interview last night, but even that was uncertain because none of us really knew that for sure, since it meant Johnny Cueto would be ineligible for the NLCS, if they advance that far. Very dumb decision on the part of Dusty Baker, by the way), so that’s a tremendous, tremendous variable you don’t want to deal with, especially for a guy making his first career postseason start, and as a result, that’s an over/under to avoid as well. That leaves us with the two night games, and I only have one to offer as of now…
Miguel Gonzalez vs Hiroki Kuroda OVER8.5 - Price TBD
Yes, it is quite ironic from a personal perspective that the one game I’m choosing from the maximum playoff slate is emanating from the one setting I like to avoid more than any other in an over/under: Yankee Stadium. You see, there’s nothing quite like it. I’ve stressed countless times how human psychology is one of the biggest factors, if not the biggest, that goes into my betting, and thus, with that mentality, I look for the games with the most steady, consistent variables. Well, as I’ve mentioned, Yankee Stadium is probably the biggest variable in all of sports, which makes betting games there so challenging. Every player that pitches there on the road is its own unique standalone variable that really makes it tough to get a grasp on the actual game. There’s nothing else in the world like it: Playing in New York, the most controversial city in the world. No, I’m not just saying that because I’ve lived in New York my whole life (Hell, as I’ve said, I hate most New York sports teams anyway), but since it’s so storied and legendary, not to mention having the biggest spotlight surrounding it possible, it just makes everyone think differently from their norm, meaning it’s difficult to bet if we don’t get players at their norm.
In any case, let’s try and figure this one out. We know Hiroki Kuroda has been excellent all year, but he’s been especially stingy at home in his first season with the Yankees (11-6, 2.72 ERA, 1.01WHIP), which is not surprising to me because I’ve read him acknowledge a couple of times how he loves pitching at Yankee Stadium, where he admits he feeds off the fans’ energy. Even so, I think Baltimore can get to him at the plate like the last time they faced him (8 hits, 4 runs) back on the last day of August (Feels like yesterday, doesn’t it?), which was also in New York. Furthermore, the key trait that could potentially open up Baltimore’s offense is that this is a night game, where Kuroda is far more human than he is during the day time. Everyone should know about his dominant in day games, where he even sported a 30-something consecutive scoreless innings streak, but at night, that’s when Kuroda is most vulnerable, although his numbers at night certainly aren’t bad at all (3.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). I’ve just always found it fascinating how big of a discrepancy there is between the two, and if that means Kuroda is a little bit out of his comfort zone, then that’s a good thing as it pertains to this over.
If there’s any variable as big as pitching at Yankee Stadium, it could be this other one we must deal with tonight: A rookie making his first ever postseason start. Of course, that would be referring to Miguel Gonzalez, who actually pitched well in New York this year, having gone 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in two starts there. For the season, he was nothing short of marvelous, ending up at 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA, which is the type of success I doubt anyone anticipated from the relatively unknown Gonzalez. Despite, being that this is his first postseason start, and the fact that the Yankees certainly have familiarity with his repertoire, I believe they’ll be able to scratch across some considerable offensive numbers. Think of it this way: Everyone should know about the Yankees’ very, very bizarre tendency over the past few years of inexplicably struggling against new unknown pitchers they see for the first time (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Sean O’Sullivan, Esmerling Vasquez, Dylan Axelrod, etc. … wonder if these clowns thought they’d ever be mentioned in a baseball playoffs article), and you can add Miguel Gonzalez to that list, based on New York’s struggles in their first couple of times opposing him. Well, the Yankees, being such a veteran lineup, are obviously not easy to hold down, and once they get a sense for your pitching style, they can collectively capitalize on it. Throw in the fact that Gonzalez might have some nerves entering his first postseason start - at storied Yankee Stadium, no less - which could lead to him missing spots or leaving something up, and at Yankee Stadium, one mistake can turn into a three-run homer, which could easily snowball in that intense atmosphere. Despite all of what I just wrote, I don’t think this will be a significant bet because these two are normally pitchers I don’t bet on, not to mention there's a team involved I don't like to bet on in over/unders (Yankees), but if you’re looking for some action tonight, this is certainly a solid bet in a hitter-friendly park.
Other Observations:
Scherzer vs Griffin is as much an "in-betweener" as you'll see. Scherzer has been mostly dominant this year, but is a bigger-than-usual variable heading into this game (Aside from his occasional games of being erratic), as he's coming off an injury and has had extra rest that took him out of his usual routine. AJ Griffin has just been absolutely splendid at home this year, but it's his first career postseason start going up against an extra-hungry Tigers' offense looking to atone for last night's brutal performance at the plate, and Griffin hasn't been as effective as his first ten or so starts when he first popped onto the scene, so that's a tough variable also. Too much involved here so I'll probably lay off, and I'd recommend you all do the same as well.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
It’s days like these you have to appreciate as a gambler during the playoffs, especially for someone like me who hasn’t taken a single day off these past six-plus months, as you have the maximum number of options on display. On the contrary, heading into this tenth day of October, I just thought it was a weird slate of games. Looking at the afternoon matchups, I couldn’t get a real feel for Carpenter vs Jackson because going up against his old team, following the absolutely disgusting performance he had versus them last week (Nine runs in less than two innings… yeesh), you really don’t know what you’re going to get from Edwin Jackson, and with the line strictly at 7.5, there’s no telling if it could end up 5-2 or 5-3 so the over/under was an absolute “must-avoid.” In the other afternoon game, you have an instance where the Reds didn’t even decide their starting pitcher until hours before gametime (Homer Bailey supposedly blurted out it would be Mike Leake during a postgame interview last night, but even that was uncertain because none of us really knew that for sure, since it meant Johnny Cueto would be ineligible for the NLCS, if they advance that far. Very dumb decision on the part of Dusty Baker, by the way), so that’s a tremendous, tremendous variable you don’t want to deal with, especially for a guy making his first career postseason start, and as a result, that’s an over/under to avoid as well. That leaves us with the two night games, and I only have one to offer as of now…
Miguel Gonzalez vs Hiroki Kuroda OVER8.5 - Price TBD
Yes, it is quite ironic from a personal perspective that the one game I’m choosing from the maximum playoff slate is emanating from the one setting I like to avoid more than any other in an over/under: Yankee Stadium. You see, there’s nothing quite like it. I’ve stressed countless times how human psychology is one of the biggest factors, if not the biggest, that goes into my betting, and thus, with that mentality, I look for the games with the most steady, consistent variables. Well, as I’ve mentioned, Yankee Stadium is probably the biggest variable in all of sports, which makes betting games there so challenging. Every player that pitches there on the road is its own unique standalone variable that really makes it tough to get a grasp on the actual game. There’s nothing else in the world like it: Playing in New York, the most controversial city in the world. No, I’m not just saying that because I’ve lived in New York my whole life (Hell, as I’ve said, I hate most New York sports teams anyway), but since it’s so storied and legendary, not to mention having the biggest spotlight surrounding it possible, it just makes everyone think differently from their norm, meaning it’s difficult to bet if we don’t get players at their norm.
In any case, let’s try and figure this one out. We know Hiroki Kuroda has been excellent all year, but he’s been especially stingy at home in his first season with the Yankees (11-6, 2.72 ERA, 1.01WHIP), which is not surprising to me because I’ve read him acknowledge a couple of times how he loves pitching at Yankee Stadium, where he admits he feeds off the fans’ energy. Even so, I think Baltimore can get to him at the plate like the last time they faced him (8 hits, 4 runs) back on the last day of August (Feels like yesterday, doesn’t it?), which was also in New York. Furthermore, the key trait that could potentially open up Baltimore’s offense is that this is a night game, where Kuroda is far more human than he is during the day time. Everyone should know about his dominant in day games, where he even sported a 30-something consecutive scoreless innings streak, but at night, that’s when Kuroda is most vulnerable, although his numbers at night certainly aren’t bad at all (3.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). I’ve just always found it fascinating how big of a discrepancy there is between the two, and if that means Kuroda is a little bit out of his comfort zone, then that’s a good thing as it pertains to this over.
If there’s any variable as big as pitching at Yankee Stadium, it could be this other one we must deal with tonight: A rookie making his first ever postseason start. Of course, that would be referring to Miguel Gonzalez, who actually pitched well in New York this year, having gone 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in two starts there. For the season, he was nothing short of marvelous, ending up at 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA, which is the type of success I doubt anyone anticipated from the relatively unknown Gonzalez. Despite, being that this is his first postseason start, and the fact that the Yankees certainly have familiarity with his repertoire, I believe they’ll be able to scratch across some considerable offensive numbers. Think of it this way: Everyone should know about the Yankees’ very, very bizarre tendency over the past few years of inexplicably struggling against new unknown pitchers they see for the first time (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Sean O’Sullivan, Esmerling Vasquez, Dylan Axelrod, etc. … wonder if these clowns thought they’d ever be mentioned in a baseball playoffs article), and you can add Miguel Gonzalez to that list, based on New York’s struggles in their first couple of times opposing him. Well, the Yankees, being such a veteran lineup, are obviously not easy to hold down, and once they get a sense for your pitching style, they can collectively capitalize on it. Throw in the fact that Gonzalez might have some nerves entering his first postseason start - at storied Yankee Stadium, no less - which could lead to him missing spots or leaving something up, and at Yankee Stadium, one mistake can turn into a three-run homer, which could easily snowball in that intense atmosphere. Despite all of what I just wrote, I don’t think this will be a significant bet because these two are normally pitchers I don’t bet on, not to mention there's a team involved I don't like to bet on in over/unders (Yankees), but if you’re looking for some action tonight, this is certainly a solid bet in a hitter-friendly park.
Other Observations:
Scherzer vs Griffin is as much an "in-betweener" as you'll see. Scherzer has been mostly dominant this year, but is a bigger-than-usual variable heading into this game (Aside from his occasional games of being erratic), as he's coming off an injury and has had extra rest that took him out of his usual routine. AJ Griffin has just been absolutely splendid at home this year, but it's his first career postseason start going up against an extra-hungry Tigers' offense looking to atone for last night's brutal performance at the plate, and Griffin hasn't been as effective as his first ten or so starts when he first popped onto the scene, so that's a tough variable also. Too much involved here so I'll probably lay off, and I'd recommend you all do the same as well.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
