Investment plays 3-4 -$2450.00
Action plays 12-11 +238.00
Total 15-15 -$2212.00
411 system now 4-2
When someone asks what percent of bets a professional sports bettor wins, they expect a quick answer with a big number. They are almost always surprised by the decidedly less than impressive answer they receive.
Many people believe expert bettors win a least 60 percent of their bets. It's understandable that they think that, perhaps, but it's just not true. The difference between the amount of bets won by successful sports bettors and the amount won by chronic losers is relatively very small.
First of all, anyone at all can expect to win about 50 percent of his point-spread bets. The only thing required is to flip a coin and pick a team. Professionals, by comparison, rarely sustain a winning rate higher than 56 or 57 percent, and most often even lower than that.
Non-gamblers find that hard to believe, and they are even more skeptical when told that, for a professional sports bettor, a long term winning rate of 60 percent or more is actually too high.
If you are unfamiliar with pro-sports betting I know that sounds crazy at first, but there is a very simple explanation. If Bettor #1 has five bets on a given day and wins three of them, that's a great winning/percentage of 60 percent and a net profit for the day of (after vigorish) 8/10ths of a unit. Here's the breakdown when risking $100 to win $100 bet........
3 won @ $100 = $300
-2 lost @ $100 = $220
net profit = $80
If Bettor #2 has fourteen bets on that same day and wins eight of them, that's a much poorer winning percentage of 57 percent, but almost twice as much profit for the day.........
8 won @ $800 = $800
-6 lost @ $100 = $660
net profit = $140
Bettor #2 was not necessarily less skilled at picking winners; he may simply have chosen to apply all his advantages, including those with less than a 60 percent expectation. After all, the real goal here is to make money, right? And if the goal is to make money, it is clear which of those two bettors was more successful.
Although there are propositions that do sometimes offer more than a 60 percent expection, (such as the "no-think" over/under system), such high-percentage bets are only a small part of the overall picture. With the break-even point at 53 percent, there is no reason to pass on those propositions with expectations higher than, say, 55 percent.
Over the long term, a small advantage applied over and over is awesomely effective. Any mathematician will tell you that a profit is more assured from two hundred bets with a 55 percent expectation-per-bet than from fifty bets with a 60 percent expectation-per-bet. It's more assured because the more observations, the more likely the results will mirror the expectation. In other words, the more bets laid, the more predictable the outcome. It's one of those laws of probabilities of which successful bettors must be aware. The more bets you place, the more likely you will achieve your winning expectation, or something very close to it.
For a professional bettor, a long term winning percentage of 60 percent of more is too high!
The fact is, professional bettors are more concerned with profit than with establishing an impressive winning percentage, and those two conditions are not always compatible. At a pro level, it is important to apply all your advantages as often as possible; not only the very best of your advantages when they occasionally arise.
The 8 years that I have been at theRX
TOTAL INVESTMENT.194-142 +$154,496.00 THE ONES THAT COUNT 58%
All Plays TOTAL...................... 580-498 +$181,393.00 54%
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=9220663#post9220663
I will take 54% any day
More to Come
Ace
Action plays 12-11 +238.00
Total 15-15 -$2212.00
411 system now 4-2
When someone asks what percent of bets a professional sports bettor wins, they expect a quick answer with a big number. They are almost always surprised by the decidedly less than impressive answer they receive.
Many people believe expert bettors win a least 60 percent of their bets. It's understandable that they think that, perhaps, but it's just not true. The difference between the amount of bets won by successful sports bettors and the amount won by chronic losers is relatively very small.
First of all, anyone at all can expect to win about 50 percent of his point-spread bets. The only thing required is to flip a coin and pick a team. Professionals, by comparison, rarely sustain a winning rate higher than 56 or 57 percent, and most often even lower than that.
Non-gamblers find that hard to believe, and they are even more skeptical when told that, for a professional sports bettor, a long term winning rate of 60 percent or more is actually too high.
If you are unfamiliar with pro-sports betting I know that sounds crazy at first, but there is a very simple explanation. If Bettor #1 has five bets on a given day and wins three of them, that's a great winning/percentage of 60 percent and a net profit for the day of (after vigorish) 8/10ths of a unit. Here's the breakdown when risking $100 to win $100 bet........
3 won @ $100 = $300
-2 lost @ $100 = $220
net profit = $80
If Bettor #2 has fourteen bets on that same day and wins eight of them, that's a much poorer winning percentage of 57 percent, but almost twice as much profit for the day.........
8 won @ $800 = $800
-6 lost @ $100 = $660
net profit = $140
Bettor #2 was not necessarily less skilled at picking winners; he may simply have chosen to apply all his advantages, including those with less than a 60 percent expectation. After all, the real goal here is to make money, right? And if the goal is to make money, it is clear which of those two bettors was more successful.
Although there are propositions that do sometimes offer more than a 60 percent expection, (such as the "no-think" over/under system), such high-percentage bets are only a small part of the overall picture. With the break-even point at 53 percent, there is no reason to pass on those propositions with expectations higher than, say, 55 percent.
Over the long term, a small advantage applied over and over is awesomely effective. Any mathematician will tell you that a profit is more assured from two hundred bets with a 55 percent expectation-per-bet than from fifty bets with a 60 percent expectation-per-bet. It's more assured because the more observations, the more likely the results will mirror the expectation. In other words, the more bets laid, the more predictable the outcome. It's one of those laws of probabilities of which successful bettors must be aware. The more bets you place, the more likely you will achieve your winning expectation, or something very close to it.
For a professional bettor, a long term winning percentage of 60 percent of more is too high!
The fact is, professional bettors are more concerned with profit than with establishing an impressive winning percentage, and those two conditions are not always compatible. At a pro level, it is important to apply all your advantages as often as possible; not only the very best of your advantages when they occasionally arise.
The 8 years that I have been at theRX
TOTAL INVESTMENT.194-142 +$154,496.00 THE ONES THAT COUNT 58%
All Plays TOTAL...................... 580-498 +$181,393.00 54%
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=9220663#post9220663
I will take 54% any day
More to Come
Ace
