MLB Thursday, 10/11/2012

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

3-1 yesterday. Hopefully today I can give everyone a few more winners. If you frequently visit my threads don't forget to take a close look at a few other successfull threads in the MLB forum before making your decision on a play. There are several other good handicappers and threads to take a look at. If you have any questions regarding my plays fire away. I will be online until 9:30AM PST and will be back at about 11:30AM PST.

I will have my plays for today posted momentarily. I have no time for any write-ups because I have some personal buisness to take care of in a few minutes and after I post I won't be back for a few hours. BOL today.

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

Game #1

San Francisco @ Cincinati

Pick: UNDER 3.5, -125 FIRST 5 INNINGS

Brief Write-Up

As you may know after the Giants were down 2-0, before game #3, I placed and posted 2 future wagers on the Giants to win the series (+950) and the Giants to win the NL Pennant (+1900) because I saw great value if they could somehow win game #3, which they did. They also won game #4, now here we are, a game #5. Looking at the numbers in Division Series history, NL teams that have gone up 2-0 are a perfect 21-for-21 in winning the series. Since I already have a series wager with the Giants on this game and I can't really get a solid read on the full game side (The game could go either way) I am going to take a shot on the First 5 innings total, which I believe is the best play in this game. I will not play the full game total because I just don't trust the middle/late relief of the Reds pen, if it comes to that. I said in post #1 I don't have time for write-ups today but I couldn't resist.

varkeyboy · Oct 11, 2012

Let's do this! I feel a lot of nervous bags coming to the plate.

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

I will be back before the 2nd game to post my remaining plays for today.

Vark: 2-0 Giant lead going to the top of the 6th would be a perfect scenerio for me!

CatsOverUnders · Oct 11, 2012

sportsforumVIP said:
Game #1

San Francisco @ Cincinati

Pick: UNDER 3.5, -125 FIRST 5 INNINGS

Brief Write-Up

As you may know after the Giants were down 2-0, before game #3, I placed and posted 2 future wagers on the Giants to win the series (+950) and the Giants to win the NL Pennant (+1900) because I saw great value if they could somehow win game #3, which they did. They also won game #4, now here we are, a game #5. Looking at the numbers in Division Series history, NL teams that have gone up 2-0 are a perfect 21-for-21 in winning the series. Since I already have a series wager with the Giants on this game and I can't really get a solid read on the full game side (The game could go either way) I am going to take a shot on the First 5 innings total, which I believe is the best play in this game. I will not play the full game total because I just don't trust the middle/late relief of the Reds pen, if it comes to that. I said in post #1 I don't have time for write-ups today but I couldn't resist.

Glad we're on board together for this one... sorta. I have the under for the game

Bullpens are my weak spot but based on how the Reds' unit was during the regular season, for the most part, I'll give 'em some trust. Hopefully they don't blow this under on wild pitches, though, like in Game 1

GL with your card today

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

CatsOverUnders said:
Glad we're on board together for this one... sorta. I have the under for the game

Bullpens are my weak spot but based on how the Reds' unit was during the regular season, for the most part, I'll give 'em some trust. Hopefully they don't blow this under on wild pitches, though, like in Game 1

GL with your card today

BOL to you also Cat. I am glad you are on the same side of the total. Cain is Cain and latos is very good against the Giants in his career, and if he wasn't, Cain wouldn't have opened at + money.

roundrobin11 · Oct 11, 2012

that's a really bad beat... 0-0 end of 4, then the Giants blow it wide open 6-0

TheU · Oct 11, 2012

Was everyone and their dog on under F5? It always seems like when everyone is on the same play here on the RX it loses. =/

varkeyboy · Oct 11, 2012

Oh well. Come back strong in G#2!

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

Yeah, wasnt a good 5th inning for the under but was pretty good for my 2 series Giants wagers. We will get them with the next play.

r.a. · Oct 11, 2012

sportsforumVIP said:
Yeah, wasnt a good 5th inning for the under but was pretty good for my 2 series Giants wagers. We will get them with the next play.

Cozart error was a killer. He makes the play the inning evolves differently.

chi-cat · Oct 11, 2012

^^^so true.....so true

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

Game #2

St. Louis @ Washington

Pick: *Big Play* St. Louis ML, -114

BOL

TheU · Oct 11, 2012

sportsforumVIP said:
Game #2

St. Louis @ Washington

Pick: *Big Play* St. Louis ML, -114

BOL

I like st. louis in this spot too, but so does everyone else and the line seems awfully low. I probably will pass. I feel that this is a trap.

mokoman · Oct 11, 2012

How many units is a big play?Thanks.

roundrobin11 · Oct 11, 2012

The U said:
I like st. louis in this spot too, but so does everyone else and the line seems awfully low. I probably will pass. I feel that this is a trap.

i see where you're coming from... but the line is right where it should be. Nats still at home where Detwiler has had success this season. Plus Nats were popular pick to win the NL this year now playing at home in an elimination game. This line seems pretty accurate to me, unless I'm missing something.

VIP what are your thoughts on the under? Elimination game, two solid pitchers. I see this being a tightly fought contest, ending 3-2 or so for the Cards. With the total at 8 we have a lot of runs to work with. Especially with the game this afternoon going over, I don't see both NL games going over for a second straight day.

CatsOverUnders · Oct 11, 2012

Really like the Cardinals bet, sportsforumVIP, but in my opinion, I don't know I'd make it for a large amount. Ross Detwiler is a huge unknown, this being his first postseason start (Not to mention the biggest start of his entire career with his team facing elimination), and since he's only a guy that just broke out this year, it's hard to tell if he's the type of pitcher that steps up in situations like these or will get tagged hard in such high-pressure scenarios.

I think more than likely he does get tagged a bit, and Lohse has really been remarkably consistent throughout the season and his "Play-In" game start, which is why I think St. Louis is a very nice bet. Just wouldn't put a lot on it.

GL with the rest of your day... we got screwed in Cain vs Latos. Clearly, without the error by his top-fielding shortstop that directly led to a run, and the questionable calls behind the plate that got into his head, Latos absolutely 100-percent would have stayed in his groove. Very unfortunate those couple of things took place; I know we had each of our unders won without that. But unfortunately, it happened. We'll see what the rest of today brings us

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

roundrobin11 said:
i see where you're coming from... but the line is right where it should be. Nats still at home where Detwiler has had success this season. Plus Nats were popular pick to win the NL this year now playing at home in an elimination game. This line seems pretty accurate to me, unless I'm missing something.

VIP what are your thoughts on the under? Elimination game, two solid pitchers. I see this being a tightly fought contest, ending 3-2 or so for the Cards. With the total at 8 we have a lot of runs to work with. Especially with the game this afternoon going over, I don't see both NL games going over for a second straight day.

No opinion on the total. I believe the Cards will score at least 4 today.

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

mokoman said:
How many units is a big play?Thanks.

I play my big plays for 5 units.

sportsforumVIP · Oct 11, 2012

The U said:
I like st. louis in this spot too, but so does everyone else and the line seems awfully low. I probably will pass. I feel that this is a trap.

The line is low for good reason, not because you are being trapped.