The Cat's MLB Playoff Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - October 11, 2012 - YTD: 5-4 (2012 Season: 361-329-47; 108-82-20, 57% from Aug 2-on)

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2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 5-4, -$32
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Last day for months with a four-or-more-game schedule, which is just extremely bizarre to think about, so let’s try and make the most of it. That *could* be tough, as there’s nothing else in sports quite like a deciding Game 5 or Game 7, which means normal mindsets are all out of whack, and given the little or no precedent for it with all of the players involved, it makes for quite the interesting variable. In any case, let’s see what there is on this final action-packed Thursday…


Matt Cain vs Mat Latos UNDER 7 - $39 for $35
Well look at this. It’s a former NL West rivalry set to be showcased in this deciding Game 5. Let me tell you, when Mat Latos first popped onto the scene back in 2009, I was one of his biggest supporters, and with ease, he dominated throughout his years in San Diego, in evolving into the clear-cut top-rotation pitcher that he is today. However, I had my doubts when he came to Cincinnati, now having to pitch in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark compared to the coziness of Petco Park,and throughout the early portions of this season, those doubts were a legitimate concern, as he carried a 5+ ERA throughout most of June. Of course, Latos improved significantly, especially at home, and ended up with his usual terrific season that we’ve all grown accustomed to from him, after posting a really fabulous summer and beyond. HOWEVER, the writing is on the wall, so to speak, as do you realize the main reason WHY he struggled through his first few months in Cincy? Pressure. How do I know that with 100-percent certainty? Well, it’s why I regularly read player quotes, and in the beginning of his newfound Reds’ tenure, all Latos could do was place the blame on the pressure he was feeling, coming over to a more tradition-rich team with the expectations of being their ace and a “cornerstone” (His word usage) of the franchise. In addition, he also felt pressure from the fact that the Reds gave up multiple players, including a top prospect, just to acquire him... when a player actually openly talks about things like that to the media, it means it weighed heavily on his mind, but luckily he was able to recover - very strongly, of course - from it, while being very, very steady over the second half.

Why is all of that relevant to today’s start? It shows Latos, more than most, CAN be affected by pressure, which is why you can’t make this a huge bet. Yes, he is at home, where he has surprisingly been at his best this season, and yes, he is facing a team whom he’s always been really good against so that familiarity is there, which is important. But unfortunately, there is that spotlight variable, and as we know from Latos’ struggles in the beginning of the season, he can be vulnerable to pressure. On the contrary, he did come into Game 1 and pitch beautifully in relief of Johnny Cueto, although that was a different situation altogether because since he was pressed into it on such short notice, he didn’t even really have time to feel pressure. When he goes into a low-pressure situation, as he did all the time in San Diego, he’s phenomenal. I’m just concerned that pressure gets to him, with his home fans watching him and “expecting” him (Possible thought in his head) to be in dominant form. Hopefully that does not happen, but if he’s uncharacteristically off today, that is 100-percent the reason why. Trust me, I’ve been tracking this guy for years and he’s a very mentally-oriented pitcher - more than most in the game. As for Matt Cain, well, he had an unusually off outing in Game 1, but what do prideful, battle-tested aces do after they’ve been embarrassed like that? They usually buckle down and get back on track. Yes, it’s a little worrisome that Cain didn’t have his usual great start his first time out, but considering how consistently good he’s been throughout his entire career, with mostly terrific postseason pitching (Game 1of this series was his only average postseason start), I have confidence we’ll see more of his normal self, even on the road where he’s never been as great. Those split stats aren’t as crucial in these types of scenarios because Elimination Games such as this are all about mind-power. Cain will lock in and be effective, I just hope Latos thinks more about his great success this year, which should put him on track for a nice outing, rather than letting the pressure get to him. If he does, then we’re in trouble and have to lean on Cain. We’ll see what happens.


**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
 
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And also, here's another interesting anecdote of information: There is a general consensus out there that when a west coast team plays a 12/1 PM EST game, they will "automatically" struggle offensively because this is like a "9 or 10 in the morning game to them"... that is not at all the case, and I'll give you a very glaring example off the top of my head.

It was a Thursday afternoon game in Cincinnati, actually, much like this one (Although this was just like any other regular mid-season summer baseball game) in July or August. The other team involved was the San Diego Padres, and the pitching matchup was Ross Ohlendorf (Love bringing up random pitchers during the playoffs) against Johnny Cueto. Ironically, you couldn't ask for a more perfect example, as the Padres are a weaker offensive team than San Francisco, while Cueto actually, I believe, had the BEST day-time ERA in the National League (12-2, 1.99 ERA) this year. Well, what happened? Cueto was hounded, while his team barely held on for a 9-6ish victory (Could be wrong on the exact score).

My point: Don't listen to people when they say "west coast teams always struggle in afternoon eastern time games." When the Dead Bat Padres scored over five runs against the best day-time pitcher in the league, that philosophy became irrelevant to me. For future reference as well, don't look too much into it when someone cites that as a reason
 

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Under 7 is juiced, omg. My books have it at -135 and -130...Thats a lot for a total. I see some guys on here have 6.5. I assume you got stuck with the juiced 7
 
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Why does Cains past struggles against Cincy not factor into this?

What struggles? His meaningless starts against them from before 2010?

No. 1, when it comes to Elimination Games (Game 5/7), those stats are mostly irrelevant between non-division teams because the sample size is so short in the recent past (Who cares what Matt Cain did against the 2008 Reds?) that really, the only thing on his mind is the task at hand - keeping his team alive

No. 2, he pitched against them twice this year during the regular season... one was a quality start, the other he went six innings and didn't fare as well, but it wasn't horrendous or anything.

Don't overrate numbers from five years ago when none of that has bearing on his mindset for today, especially from a non-division opponent. Those "trends" are overrated when people look too much into how a pitcher did against a team several years ago, when said team had a completely different lineup
 
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Under 7 is juiced, omg. My books have it at -135 and -130...Thats a lot for a total. I see some guys on here have 6.5. I assume you got stuck with the juiced 7

The advantage of seeing the lines when they first opened :) Got it at the generic -110
 
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And to further elaborate on Cain's "struggles" against the Reds, here are his numbers against them since 2009: 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP.

Anything before 2009 is irrelevant, especially between two non-divison foes, and especially since A)Cain was a different pitcher back then and B)The Reds had a completely different lineup as well. You can't look too much into those types of stats when everything was completely different

Hopefully we nail it
 
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Nice start by Latos with a strikeout to begin the game. I'm telling you, this sounds nuts but this will PROBABLY be the most important half-inning of the ballgame (Pertaining to the under): The top of the 1st. I know Cain will be as cool as a cucumber but we NEED to know where Latos is mentally. If he starts things out right, we'll be in very good shape
 
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Beautiful. For a second there, after giving up those two consecutive hits, I thought we were in store for the April/May 2012 version of Mat Latos, when, as I said, his ONLY reason for struggling with pressure and over-thinking everything. Had nothing to do with mechanics or velocity, just the heavy burden he was feeling mentally. With that first inning out of the way, he can now settle in and be his usual reliable self at home. Hopefully Cain duplicates it, and since he's battle-tested with an established track record, that should be more likely than not
 

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Do you ever consider relievers, how much they've been used, etc.. In your analysis??
 
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Do you ever consider relievers, how much they've been used, etc.. In your analysis??

Yes... no need to address the obvious when both club's top relievers are ALL available, and considering the reliability of each bullpen throughout the entire season, especially relative to a lot of shitty bullpens we saw during the season, there's no need to go over it again. Plus I covered the bullpens in earlier games of this series. With their main guys available, it has to be examined as a steady variable
 
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Uh oh, this is exactly what I've been saying all year about Mat Latos being one of the most mentally-oriented pitchers in baseball in recent memory. Far too many times, he lets calls that he doesn't agree with get to his head (Hence how Brandon Crawford snapped his 0-for-10 postseason statline with that RBI triple following an AB where Latos was unhappy with some calls by Tom Hallion, including a call in the AB to Crawford), and now the error leading to a second run. Just need him to navigate through this somehow and we'll be good
 
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And now he walks Marco Scutaro on four straight. If only he can fix his mindset in these situations, there's no question Latos could be a top-five Major League pitcher, since he certainly has the stuff and velocity for it. It's all mental for him. That's his only issue.
 
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Cats, what do you think about the over in the Nats/Cards game?

Ehhh not taking it, didn't really have a strong vibe on it, but I guess if I had to lean, I'd say over 8. I don't trust Detwiler in a postseason game (Even though he did enjoy a breakout year), but then again, you don't really know what he's going to do so I think it's a game to avoid
 

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Under is trashed. It was looking so good too until Latos went into meltdown mode.
 
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Anddd there ya go. That's 100-percent the Mat Latos I've described all year, and in years' past when innings wouldn't snowball on him as much in pressure-free San Diego. If he'd stop thinking so much and keep it simple, that inning would have been completely minimized but he's so prideful and wants to be the best with every pitch... you can't have that mindset. You need to accept things when they happen, even if it's out of their control, but unfortunately, Mat Latos is as mentally-oriented as they get, much like a Ricky Romero or a Bud Norris. I absolute knew Buster Posey was going to deliver in that spot and I was just hoping it wouldn't be for a grand slam. Very unfortunate
 

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Ok who does everyone have next? Cards seem too easy to pick. They are on a roll and have the better, more experienced pitcher going for them. So go with the nats?
 

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Ugh. We just gotta hope the giants don't score again, cause I honestly believe Cain shuts them down rest of way. Reds fighting spirit is completely gone now. That ship has sailed. We gotta pray on reds BP
 

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