UFC 153 picks? Anyone taking a flyer on Bonnar?

GoBlue34 · Oct 12, 2012

+750 is a lot and he has a punchers chance I supposed, just don't know if he's fast enough to hit him. He's bigger and stronger so could hold him down and his wrestling has improved but still...

Dave Herman has a chance at +255

Jon Fitch is boring as hell but could hold down Silva for a decision for 3 rounds maybe +115

Rick Story is tough but not ultra talented at +127

Nothing wagered yet just a few dogs that I feel have a chance but don't love anything tomorrow.

Any thoughts?

deadlift_405 · Oct 12, 2012

GOBLUE,

Bonnar has a punchers chance, but I would wager a 1/5 of what you normally would. The payout will most likely be the same, however, I would just lay your smallest wager due to the unlikely hood of him winning. He has a heart of a lion, but has not even challenged for top contender, he is 37 and considered retiring. I don't think he stands much of a chance despite my CHEERS for him on saturday night. Bonnar very very small play

I would consider picking Rick Story and Damien Maia DECISION. Rick story has 5 decisions in his last 5 fights. Damien Maia has been working on his striking but can't touch Story's stand up. he will rely on his ground game and could result in a boring fight. Story is a STRONG dude and will be tough to submit. I think the fight ending via decision (Maia) would be the best call.

I also like Jon Fitch. I read a report that he is hurting financially. He's also been on the shelf due to injuries. GSP has stated that Fitch is the toughest guy he's ever fought. I doubt that was said out of courtesy. Fitch is going to be HUNGRY for a win. Also, Erick Silva is a young kid who is fighting in front of a Bazilian crowd (he is brazilian) and fighters have said the added pressure makes home octagon advantage an actual DISADVANTAGE. I think Fitch gets back on the winning page here. I wouldn't mind looking at Fitch Decision victory. That could pay out real well.

jonnyg4508 · Oct 13, 2012

deadlift_405 said:
GOBLUE,

Bonnar has a punchers chance, but I would wager a 1/5 of what you normally would. The payout will most likely be the same, however, I would just lay your smallest wager due to the unlikely hood of him winning. He has a heart of a lion, but has not even challenged for top contender, he is 37 and considered retiring. I don't think he stands much of a chance despite my CHEERS for him on saturday night. Bonnar very very small play

I would consider picking Rick Story and Damien Maia DECISION. Rick story has 5 decisions in his last 5 fights. Damien Maia has been working on his striking but can't touch Story's stand up. he will rely on his ground game and could result in a boring fight. Story is a STRONG dude and will be tough to submit. I think the fight ending via decision (Maia) would be the best call.

I also like Jon Fitch. I read a report that he is hurting financially. He's also been on the shelf due to injuries. GSP has stated that Fitch is the toughest guy he's ever fought. I doubt that was said out of courtesy. Fitch is going to be HUNGRY for a win. Also, Erick Silva is a young kid who is fighting in front of a Bazilian crowd (he is brazilian) and fighters have said the added pressure makes home octagon advantage an actual DISADVANTAGE. I think Fitch gets back on the winning page here. I wouldn't mind looking at Fitch Decision victory. That could pay out real well.

How do you suppose Brazilian's fighting in Brazil are at a disadvantage?

In the 3 Brazilian cards the UFC has had this era, Brazilians are 15-3 vs. any non-Brazilian.

They win at an alarming rate on Brazilian cards.

Plus as seen before refs are liable to stand fights up quicker. They won't let Fitch Lay and Pray. The UFC HATES Fitch, they are setting him up here.

Erick Silva all day and all night! :103631605

MattyMatt · Oct 13, 2012

I watch the fights for free, so I see it as saving $60. That $60 will be wagered tonight. $25 of it on Bonnar at +825. I'd be praying he wins anyways, so screw it. He has a punchers chase like anyone, and he is stronger than Silva. The other $35 will go into a parlay to kill some juice of some favs and a few dawgs. good luck and enjoy the fights!

UFC 153 picks? Anyone taking a flyer on Bonnar?

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