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OVERALL: 9-6
Starting Bankroll: $5,000
Current Bankroll: $5,507
UL-Lafayette's HC is in his second year and last year he took a team that had finished 3-9 in 2010 and turned them into a 9-4 team that won the New Orleans Bowl against SD State. This year they are 4-1 so far and look to be as good as last year's team that beat North Texas 30-10.
North Texas' HC is also in his second year, and he did get a good effort out of his team last year (5-7 compared to 3-9), but he suffered a stroke in the Winter and he was not fully healthy during the Spring drills and it seems to have affected the entire team. UNT did not look good at home against Troy and got blown out against a mediocre Houston team. UNT is breaking-in a new DC and the rush defense has suffered for it, allowing 177 rush ypg on 5.2 ypc. That is a drop-off from last year when they allowed 4.7 ypc. Last week Houston's RB hung 210 yards on UNT. That's bad news this week, since ULL has two rushers that average over 5 ypc, including 1st-team all-SBC RB Alonzo Harris.
UNT's QB Broadway is making his third start of the season in place of Gautier, and that's a good thing since he has better numbers than Gautier. Troy HC Larry Blakeney got to see both QB's in the same game and he personally said in post-game comments that Broadway is the better QB. Broadway is a scrambler and has rushed for three TDs, averages 4.1 ypc, and has thrown 4 TDs against only 1 INT in limited snaps so far this year. He started one game for Houston last year before transferring to ULL. With 10-days off to prepare, he'll be ready to exploit UNT both through the air and on the ground.
ULL's defense is weakest through the air, and UNT does have a solid QB with Derek Thompson. But with no real rushing attack to speak of, UNT has relied too heavily on Thompson and teams have figured him out. He has not completed more than 52% of his passes in any of his last three games, and he got picked-off twice in his last game against Houston. UNT does not have enough depth at wide receiver to fully benefit from Thompson's skill set. ULL will probably double-cover WR Brandon Chancellor, and then force Thompson into some bad throws. He's already thrown 5 INTs this year.
X-Factor: ULL's placekicker is one of the best in the nation. Against Troy several weeks ago he tied a team record by making his 18th consecutive field goal. If ULL gets anywhere inside the 40-yard line, go ahead and at least put three points on the board.
Money stat: ULL rushed for 176 yards against Troy and 165 against FIU in wins, against two teams considered in the Sun Belt elite at the beginning of the year. They will roll at will tonight.
-Dating to last year, ULL is 6-1 ATS on the road.
-N. Texas is 0-2 ATS at home this year.
-N. Texas was 4-2 ATS at home last year, but lost 3 of 4 leading tacklers and both leading rushers from that team.
UL-Lafayette 30
UNT 23
RAGIN' CAJUNS -4
$500 to win $455
OVERALL: 9-6
Starting Bankroll: $5,000
Current Bankroll: $5,507
UL-Lafayette's HC is in his second year and last year he took a team that had finished 3-9 in 2010 and turned them into a 9-4 team that won the New Orleans Bowl against SD State. This year they are 4-1 so far and look to be as good as last year's team that beat North Texas 30-10.
North Texas' HC is also in his second year, and he did get a good effort out of his team last year (5-7 compared to 3-9), but he suffered a stroke in the Winter and he was not fully healthy during the Spring drills and it seems to have affected the entire team. UNT did not look good at home against Troy and got blown out against a mediocre Houston team. UNT is breaking-in a new DC and the rush defense has suffered for it, allowing 177 rush ypg on 5.2 ypc. That is a drop-off from last year when they allowed 4.7 ypc. Last week Houston's RB hung 210 yards on UNT. That's bad news this week, since ULL has two rushers that average over 5 ypc, including 1st-team all-SBC RB Alonzo Harris.
UNT's QB Broadway is making his third start of the season in place of Gautier, and that's a good thing since he has better numbers than Gautier. Troy HC Larry Blakeney got to see both QB's in the same game and he personally said in post-game comments that Broadway is the better QB. Broadway is a scrambler and has rushed for three TDs, averages 4.1 ypc, and has thrown 4 TDs against only 1 INT in limited snaps so far this year. He started one game for Houston last year before transferring to ULL. With 10-days off to prepare, he'll be ready to exploit UNT both through the air and on the ground.
ULL's defense is weakest through the air, and UNT does have a solid QB with Derek Thompson. But with no real rushing attack to speak of, UNT has relied too heavily on Thompson and teams have figured him out. He has not completed more than 52% of his passes in any of his last three games, and he got picked-off twice in his last game against Houston. UNT does not have enough depth at wide receiver to fully benefit from Thompson's skill set. ULL will probably double-cover WR Brandon Chancellor, and then force Thompson into some bad throws. He's already thrown 5 INTs this year.
X-Factor: ULL's placekicker is one of the best in the nation. Against Troy several weeks ago he tied a team record by making his 18th consecutive field goal. If ULL gets anywhere inside the 40-yard line, go ahead and at least put three points on the board.
Money stat: ULL rushed for 176 yards against Troy and 165 against FIU in wins, against two teams considered in the Sun Belt elite at the beginning of the year. They will roll at will tonight.
-Dating to last year, ULL is 6-1 ATS on the road.
-N. Texas is 0-2 ATS at home this year.
-N. Texas was 4-2 ATS at home last year, but lost 3 of 4 leading tacklers and both leading rushers from that team.
UL-Lafayette 30
UNT 23
RAGIN' CAJUNS -4
$500 to win $455
