The Cat's MLB Playoff Over/Under Bets & Detailed Writeups - October 16, 2012 - YTD: 6-9 (2012 Season: 361-329-47; 108-82-20, 57% from Aug 2-on)

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2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 6-9, -$199
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104

Well, unfortunately, there’s really nothing we can do about yesterday. I mean, if you had the under, you made the right bet. Period. That was the bet you were supposed to make. But a bad beat is a bad beat, and these playoffs have been chock full of them to the point where luck is becoming wayyyy too heavily involved. It’s not supposed to be like that, but hey, this isn’t the regular season anymore so as a lot of us figured, some strange things were going to happen in the playoffs, and this 2012 postseason has been as bizarre and as notable as any in recent memory. I’m trying to overcome this recent rough patch, which has mostly been due to lost Yankee over/unders, which I acknowledged beforehand were one of my biggest weaknesses (Because Yankee games, especially at home, are just so hard to have a beat on. They’re not normal, as everyone is once again finding out this postseason), but whatever. It is what it is, and my mind is obviously more into football at this point, as I’m 53-30-4 (63.8%) over there, so it’s human nature for me to be more invested into that mentally. Even so, I know there’s one good run left in me for baseball, even in the much tougher postseason, as I was 5-1-1 with World Series over/unders last year so I know I’ll produce something like that before we say goodbye to baseball in 2012. Let’s see if there’s potential for that to start today…


Phil Hughes vs Justin Verlander UNDER 7 - Price TBD
I look at this pitching matchup and I just laugh. I laugh because I know there’s a very good chance we’ll all be surprised about what’s going to happen. First off, you have to take the under. The over, while I do have a vibe for it, is unacceptable because the Yankees’ pitiful postseason offense is involved, which is now missing their best player and team captain. They have done jack shit this entire postseason, and now they’re facing the best American League pitcher over the past few years. Uh, normal logic says the Yankees score one or two runs at tops against Justin Verlander (Especially since Verlander was good against them during the regular season), but unfortunately, this is the New York Yankees we’re talking about, where normal logic just doesn’t apply. Thus, it is definitely possible that they somehow scratch across a surprising solid effort against the reigning American League Cy Young, despite literally doing absolutely nothing against everyone from Wei-Yin Chen to Anibal Sanchez. If you want to take it a step further, you could also throw in some obscure scrubs they struggled against in the final month of the season, like Corey Kluber and Esmerling Vasquez. Is it possible that a team that couldn’t hit ESMERLING VASQUEZ in an important September game with first place in the balance could suddenly hit the best pitcher in the league - and on the road?? Since this is the New York Yankees, the unexpected happens more times than not so you have to be careful. Hence why this will be a small bet no matter what.

And then there is Phil Hughes, the emerging star in that Yankees’ rotation. Give him credit where credit is due: He was outstanding his ALDS effort against Baltimore, and that came at home in the hitter’s haven known as Yankee Stadium. While I’m taking the under, I do fear Yankee starting pitching is due to get hit, and given Hughes’ surprising struggles on the road (5-9, 4.76 ERA) this year compared to his surprising success at home (11-4, 3.74 ERA), it is obviously not out of the realm of possibility for that potent Detroit offense to stock up on runs against the right-hander. In fact, I’d say there’s a pretty good chance of that happening. With my luck, he will single-handedly surrender this under, but at the very least, Hughes has had success against the Tigers this year, specifically twirling his only complete game of 2012 opposing them - and that performance came in Detroit. The end result was a brilliant four-hit, eight-strikeout masterpiece, and while I don’t think he will duplicate that same exact success, all we really need him to do is keep up with what Verlander should give us, and we’ll be fine. But I really do fear Hughes’ outlook this evening.

Can’t stress it enough, though: Small Bet. Small Bet. Small Bet. A lot of times, there are games that look obvious, only for the exact opposite to occur, and I actually believe the Yankees are in more such games than anybody else in baseball. Why? Because they’re the Yankees. The unexpected should always be cautioned. We’ll see what happens.



**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**


**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
 
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P.S. This goes out to the Mods or whoever came up with the new site design/format: THANK YOU. Every day for these past six-plus months, I've written just about all my articles on Microsoft Word, and then when I would copy and paste it onto this site in my threads, I would have to waste my time going through each word having to space it or whatnot (Which is why, if you ever noticed, why some words would be stuck together in my articles). I mean, the idea was good, as I assume it was to prevent people from copying and paste other people's work and passing it as their own, but for people like me who had to write it on Word (Since my laptop randomly shuts down at times by itself so I never wanted to take that risk of directly writing it on here, only to lose it out of nowhere because of said shutdown), it was an unnecessary waste of time having to go through my articles multiple times to make sure the sentence structure and everything came across in normal fashion.. But I'm very thankful this has been adjusted as it saves me a ton of time.

So to the Mods, or whoever is in charge and initiated this idea with The RX, thank you and I salute you
 

Biz

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Young man, you just don't get it.

That wasn't a bad beat, your bet lost.

Baseball games are 9 innings. Nine. Having a team score 2 runs late to go over the total isn't a bad beat.

Its getting real tiresome reading about every loss being a bad beat. About you being elite, among the best, and the many other superlatives you mention about yourself. I mean if it wasn't for bad luck and bad beats you would win every single bet. Combined with a 60+ percent claim about being amongst the best in the country.....just unbelievable. As has been stated many times, being 60% against the spread, and being 60% with teasers and point buying are 2 completely different things. Apples and oranges, and putting yourself in the same class as those that play the Vegas number and hit 60% is disingenuous.

Look, I hope you crush your bets, I really do. I want everyone to win.

My current football, NCAA and NFL, is 76-46-1. That is 61.8 %. No teasers and I have bought a half maybe 5 times if that. I took a beat on the NE/SEA UNDER on a 46 yd TD pass by Russell Wilson in the last minute. I didn't complain about a " bad beat". It's a 60 minute game, and I lost fair and square. I lost with San Diego last night after being up 24-0 at half. Again, 60 minute game and I lost. Not a bad beat, I lost.

I am having a great year so far, but I don't run around telling everyone how wonderful I am. I know things can change, and sustaining a 60% + win percentage.....against the spread..... Is difficult. I just had my first losing NFL week, things happen.

I stay humble, I keep grinding, I don't complain about a beat no matter how tough. I took 2 losses instead of pushes this weekend because a college kid couldn't kick an XP. Another loss came when the last play of the game ended on the 1 yd line. Stuff happens. We win games getting breaks, we lose them the same way.

"I undoubtedly lead the country in half/one run losses".

This quote....... C'mon Cat. News flash, you don't. Everyone takes beats. Tell me, how many games did you win by a half or one run??

Analyze the games, state your play. Stop with the chest puffing, stop the excuses. Winning players don't do this. Act like one.
 
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First off, Biz, I don't like arguing with you because I can tell you are a very wise man and honestly one of the more intelligent people I've come across on these forums. So let me just say that first and foremost.

Concerning the 60-percent argument and buying points and such, I get what you're saying but that shouldn't be applied to my baseball betting because every single baseball over/under bet I've made over the years has been with the Vegas number, as unfortunately, I've never had the option of being able to buy a run or a half-run. What you see is all from the given line and nothing more or nothing less. That statement absolutely cannot be applied to my baseball over/under betting.

As for the argument of our definition of a bad beat, obviously we disagree. Yes, obviously a baseball game is nine innings, but when unpredictable or illogical bad fielding, not to mention most importantly a BLOWN call directly led to the deciding runs, stop... come on, that's a bad beat. Think of it this way: When you need fluke bullshit, such as all of that, to win a bet, since over backers were 100-percent wrong with the starting pitching matchup, it's a bad beat for the other side. Period. Yes, it's baseball, and yes, it happens, but when it happens to someone A LOT more times than it's supposed to, then it's bullshit. That's it. Everyone who's been here all year knows my bad luck was absolutely off the charts in 2012. When once-or-twice-a-year incidents are constantly ruining bets, with vey, very little breaks ever in my favor, I have a right to complain because that's not how it's supposed to work. How do I know that? I've ridden this rodeo before and it was not at all like this last year, although bullpens, especially closers, we're historically bad in 2012.

I know my claim might be comical to some, but that's only to people who haven't been following me for most of this year. It's actually been comical all of the strange, bizarre bad breaks against me that would happen seemingly EVERY day... that's why I would constantly complain about them because they would always happen, and worst of all, I would RARELY be rewarded with any kind of good break in my favor. Emphasis on the word "rarely." If they weren't so excessive and legitimate, I wouldn't be continually talking about them. But if you want, pick out any sample size of days in the regular season, specifically in the first half when they were even more constant, and you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. It actually might provide you with a good laugh because of how strangely consistent they were and how unusual the incident actually was. It was truly unreal.

As for your numbers, those are very, very good as well. But just because I buy a point or two for a handful of my football bets doesn't mean my 64ish-winning percentage should be written off because it's not the majority of the sample size.
 

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P.S. This goes out to the Mods or whoever came up with the new site design/format: THANK YOU. Every day for these past six-plus months, I've written just about all my articles on Microsoft Word, and then when I would copy and paste it onto this site in my threads, I would have to waste my time going through each word having to space it or whatnot (Which is why, if you ever noticed, why some words would be stuck together in my articles). I mean, the idea was good, as I assume it was to prevent people from copying and paste other people's work and passing it as their own, but for people like me who had to write it on Word (Since my laptop randomly shuts down at times by itself so I never wanted to take that risk of directly writing it on here, only to lose it out of nowhere because of said shutdown), it was an unnecessary waste of time having to go through my articles multiple times to make sure the sentence structure and everything came across in normal fashion.. But I'm very thankful this has been adjusted as it saves me a ton of time.

So to the Mods, or whoever is in charge and initiated this idea with The RX, thank you and I salute you

Couldn't agree more! The new site design looks GREAT.
 

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Phil Hughes vs Justin Verlander UNDER 7 - Price TBD
Yankees, the unexpected happens more times than not so you have to be careful. Hence why this will be a small bet no matter what.


Can’t stress it enough, though: Small Bet. Small Bet. Small Bet. A lot of times, there are games that look obvious, only for the exact opposite to occur, and I actually believe the Yankees are in more such games than anybody else in baseball. Why? Because they’re the Yankees. The unexpected should always be cautioned. We’ll see what happens.

Thanks for the careful thoughts. I appreciate your gentle response to Biz. I would say that while I disagree with the term bad beat in this case, I WOULD complain about bad beats in certain situations unlike the stoic Biz. It helps to share the hurt of losing something that seemed so bizarre to lose. Example: Take the dog +5 points in some hoops contest. They tie to end regulation. I WIN!! But wait, overtime. They lose by 7 in over time. Those are the bad beats and I'll let you guys know when it happens.

NOW, saying all that: I agree with your assessment about viewing your choices. You looked back and examined the results and if you could go back to Monday night you would STILL and with confidence choose the under. I understand what you are saying and I appreciate your point. It was a good wager. It lost and that is unfortunate.

Thanks again for the write-up today. Good luck!


tulsa
 

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Yes, I had the under as well. The call was blown by the umpire who was looking right at the play. It did not effect who would win the game but it did effect people like us who put a lot of time into a game trying to handicap. As Joe Girardi said in his post game press conference we do have the technology to get these calls right. In both of those calls the umpires could have taken a quick look at the play and easily see that they made incorrect calls. Last night's call only effected people who played the total in the game. Wish they had something like they have in the NFL where a manager would get one or two challenges per game. If they lose the first they wouldn't get a second. Guarantee, both of those calls would have been challenged and only delayed the game by a minute or so. Hockey also has a great system where goals or non goals are reviewed in Toronto and relayed back to the respective games. Even the NBA has certain calls that can be reviewed ... why not more than home runs in baseball?
 

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Because of all the sports, baseball is about the 'tradition and integrity of the game' going back 80 years or so to the changes in spit balls. Baseball leadership is very much not willing to change the game due to tradition. NFL is just the opposite. I hardly know all the NFL rules anymore... I do, but you know what I mean.

tulsa
 

Biz

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Cat,
My only point is that shit happens. That's all. Just roll with it. Don't lament it. You are a good enough handicapper to withstand shitty beats.

I am hard on you not because I'm an ahole, it's because you remind me of myself at that stage of my life. I love your confidence, even though it comes out as arrogant. Just be a little more humble with your choice of words. You've explained that you don't intend to sound that way, and I don't doubt that for a minute.

If I thought you were a clown, I wouldn't spend 5 seconds on you. It's the fact that you have so much potential to be a winning player, I and others are adding our experiences and advice as helpful tips.

So, I hope no hard feelings. I will also do a better job of toning down my rhetoric. I have been unduly harsh with you at times, so I would like to extend my apologies for that.

And the guy that described me as the " stoic" Biz...... Dude that was classic. Funny shit.

Keep up the great work, I am rooting for you.
 
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Cat,
My only point is that shit happens. That's all. Just roll with it. Don't lament it. You are a good enough handicapper to withstand shitty beats.

I am hard on you not because I'm an ahole, it's because you remind me of myself at that stage of my life. I love your confidence, even though it comes out as arrogant. Just be a little more humble with your choice of words. You've explained that you don't intend to sound that way, and I don't doubt that for a minute.

If I thought you were a clown, I wouldn't spend 5 seconds on you. It's the fact that you have so much potential to be a winning player, I and others are adding our experiences and advice as helpful tips.

So, I hope no hard feelings. I will also do a better job of toning down my rhetoric. I have been unduly harsh with you at times, so I would like to extend my apologies for that.

And the guy that described me as the " stoic" Biz...... Dude that was classic. Funny shit.

Keep up the great work, I am rooting for you.

Thank you, I really appreciate that. No hard feelings taken at all, it is completely understood, especially since I can clearly tell you're one of the real wise veterans out there. I hope you continue with you're success as well and appreciate any feedback you provide me
 
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Also, final $$ amount for the game tonight:

Hughes vs Verlander UNDER 7 - $25 for $20

As I said, only a SMALL bet on this game for the minimum, as I think this could be one of those surprising games with an outcome people wouldn't normally expect. The Yankees are involved, after all

Furthermore, of this were in a normal 10-15 regular season game schedule, there's no way I'd take this game. No way. But it's the only game set on the postseason slate tonight, and alas, I must take action, just as I have literally done for every single day these past 6+ months
 

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I love the conversations that involve Cat, its brilliant discussion and i appreciate the insights. I am unfortunately against the tigers tonight and looking for a 5-3 NY extra inning game. Heres hoping NY hitters get the pitch count up fast and Verlander doesnt get past 5 or 6 innings. We are betting small on Over 7 runs tonight. GL!
 
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I love the conversations that involve Cat, its brilliant discussion and i appreciate the insights. I am unfortunately against the tigers tonight and looking for a 5-3 NY extra inning game. Heres hoping NY hitters get the pitch count up fast and Verlander doesnt get past 5 or 6 innings. We are betting small on Over 7 runs tonight. GL!

Lol thanks. Yup, what you see here is pretty much how I am in real life... just an eccentric guy with a real, real obsessive passion for MLB Over/Unders who gets extremely attached to obscure, albeit incredibly underrated, starting pitchers (Bud Norris, Blake Beavan, Eric Stults, Lucas Harrell, etc.)

Hopefully this under holds, being 0-0 in the 4th, but even if it does, I'm not going to sit here and say I was all over this pitching matchup. Like I said, if this were your typical 15-game Tuesday night slate (I miss those) during the regular season, I wouldn't have really went after this ballgame
 
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the playoffs are a tough game to win

Lol without question. I think it also depends on the teams involved; unfortunately, one of the final four teams left, the Yankees, has historically been one of my worst three teams to bet over/unders with.

If the playoffs consisted of the Pirates, Astros, Padres, Indians, Mariners, Blue Jays (Imagine Henderson Alvarez pitching in a playoff game; I would SALIVATE), etc., then I'd be absolutely on fire. But a lot of it depends on the strengths and weaknesses of the given bettor, and thus, the teams and starting pitchers involved have a big impact on someone's potential success in the postseason.

Most importantly, it's just that big variable of pitching in a playoff game for each particular pitcher. There's nothing like it, especially when someone encounters their first postseason start. That variable alone is a huge monster to deal with.
 

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While last night was a bad beat if you look at just the 8th inning, realize that they had 6 runs in just the 4th inning. Most of us had 6 1/2 I would presume so being that with just 1 swing of the bat or anything to go wrong in those last 5 innings that we would lose I disagree it was a bad beat. Definitely tough to lose that one, but I'm sure I'm not the only one that wrote that bet off as a loss in the 4th! Keep on grinding Cat, become modest and simply let your pics and records do the talking. Who do you think got the most respect - Jerry Rice or T Owens? One simply let his hands do the talking, one liked to talk about it. Just something to think about.
 

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